Consensus Mock Draft II - Post Combine - Pick 30 - Green Bay Packers

[MrOaktown_56]

2 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Breaking a couple decades of history here.  Since 2002, the Packers haven't taken a WR in the first round when they took Javon Walker.  And the only non-premium position the Packers have taken in the first round since 2005 was when they selected AJ Hawk.  Going back to 2005, the Packers have only selected ONE WR who was shorter than 5'11", and that was when they selected Randall Cobb 64th overall back in 2011.

I’m aware of the trend. It’s what I would do. But other guys will be there in the 2nd, just not as dynamic.

[goldfishwars]

23 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I’m aware of the trend. It’s what I would do. But other guys will be there in the 2nd, just not as dynamic.

No, you must go back and all five volumes of 'The Packers GM' and understand the decades of philosophies which lead this storied franchise to select future Hall of Famers such as Rashan Gary, Damarious Randall, Kevin King and Josh Jackson. 

[PossibleCabbage]

FWIW the question is literally phrased as "Who Do They Pick?"

[MrOaktown_56]

2 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

No, you must go back and all five volumes of 'The Packers GM' and understand the decades of philosophies which lead this storied franchise to select future Hall of Famers such as Rashan Gary, Damarious Randall, Kevin King and Josh Jackson. 

Yeah I feel like by the late first, the whole "premium position" thing gets kinda overblown. Get a good football player that will help you win in the playoffs. Without taking pressure off of Adams and Jones, I don't see how that happens.

[goldfishwars]

2 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Yeah I feel like by the late first, the whole "premium position" thing gets kinda overblown. Get a good football player that will help you win in the playoffs. Without taking pressure off of Adams and Jones, I don't see how that happens.

Man seriously. Who cares what your tendencies are when you've not been drafting good players and you've allowed holes on your roster, that hurt your team, to persist for years.

[Shanedorf]

1 hour ago, goldfishwars said:

Man seriously. Who cares what your tendencies are when you've not been drafting good players and you've allowed holes on your roster, that hurt your team, to persist for years.

Over the last 20 years, the Packers are number 1 in entire NFL in Total AV Drafted based on Pro Football Reference and their well-regarded formula
I'll also note that it does not take into account draft position and the Packers have generally drafted late over the last 20 years - 
so its a notable accomplishment.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU26vPPXgAAuWNH?format=jpg&name=small

 

[MrOaktown_56]

13 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

Over the last 20 years, the Packers are number 1 in entire NFL in Total AV Drafted based on Pro Football Reference and their well-regarded formula
I'll also note that it does not take into account draft position and the Packers have generally drafted late over the last 20 years - 
so its a notable accomplishment.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EU26vPPXgAAuWNH?format=jpg&name=small

 

But the WR trend has to be broken at some point, no?

And it's not like Mims and Reagor are scrubs. I think they're great value here and can both be perennial 1000 yard guys.

[Shanedorf]

18 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

But the WR trend has to be broken at some point, no?

I have no clue - but GB has done really well in Round 2 & 3 at WR and that seems like a better value than spending a 1st.

The current media story echoes what you said earlier - Adams and nobody else. But I'm on my island saying that with an abbreviated offseason - the more likley scenario at WR is for Equinimeous St Brown to step up than for a rookie to make the leap into an up- tempo NFL offense for 2020.
Unsurprisingly, that's not a popular opinion

With so much talent available at WR, I can see the Packers addressing other positions with 30 and grabbing a WR later on. 

[MrOaktown_56]

21 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

I have no clue - but GB has done really well in Round 2 & 3 at WR and that seems like a better value than spending a 1st.

The current media story echoes what you said earlier - Adams and nobody else. But I'm on my island saying that with an abbreviated offseason - the more likley scenario at WR is for Equinimeous St Brown to step up than for a rookie to make the leap into an up- tempo NFL offense for 2020.
Unsurprisingly, that's not a popular opinion

With so much talent available at WR, I can see the Packers addressing other positions with 30 and grabbing a WR later on. 

I’m curious what player would you take at this slot? 

[Shanedorf]

31 minutes ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

I’m curious what player would you take at this slot? 

 I'd look at moving back, but in this scenario I went OT and I chose Austin Jackson in the pole.
Jackson has a Packer heritage: " His grandfather, Mel, started at RG for Green Bay in 1977-’78 " 

GB has an RT in Rick Wagner and that gives Jackson time to develop and get stronger

[MrOaktown_56]

32 minutes ago, Shanedorf said:

 I'd look at moving back, but in this scenario I went OT and I chose Austin Jackson in the pole.
Jackson has a Packer heritage: " His grandfather, Mel, started at RG for Green Bay in 1977-’78 " 

GB has an RT in Rick Wagner and that gives Jackson time to develop and get stronger

OT is a very important position, but I don't see Jackson as a day 1 player. I have mid more as a mid day 2 guy who will inevitably be overdrafted. Personally I wouldn't reach for a day 2 player at a a value position over a round 1 talent, but agree to disagree.

[CWood21]

7 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

No, you must go back and all five volumes of 'The Packers GM' and understand the decades of philosophies which lead this storied franchise to select future Hall of Famers such as Rashan Gary, Damarious Randall, Kevin King and Josh Jackson. 

Ah yes...let's use an argument that you and I both know don't stand up.  The Packers have drafted Jaire Alexander, Kenny Clark, Bryan Bulaga, B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews, etc.  At best, this is really bad confirmation bias.

[CWood21]

5 hours ago, MrOaktown_56 said:

Yeah I feel like by the late first, the whole "premium position" thing gets kinda overblown. Get a good football player that will help you win in the playoffs. Without taking pressure off of Adams and Jones, I don't see how that happens.

But it's not like you're talking about a WR you've graded out as a top 10 prospect and comparing it to an OL you've got a 3rd round grade on.  You're likely comparing guys who are late 1st, early Day 2 WR prospects and comparing it to similarly graded OL, DL, etc.   Are you going to tell me that you believe WR has a bigger impact on success than those positions?  If the board shakes out as it has in this scenario then you could probably make an argument that WR provides the best value.

[CWood21]

5 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Man seriously. Who cares what your tendencies are when you've not been drafting good players and you've allowed holes on your roster, that hurt your team, to persist for years.

Find me a SINGLE team that doesn't have draft misses.  You won't.  It's confirmation bias on your behalf.  This is Positional Value 101.  You're not going to draft a Punter or Kicker in the first round unless you're Al Davis.  If everything being equal, you go with the position that impacts the most.

[MrOaktown_56]

2 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

But it's not like you're talking about a WR you've graded out as a top 10 prospect and comparing it to an OL you've got a 3rd round grade on.  You're likely comparing guys who are late 1st, early Day 2 WR prospects and comparing it to similarly graded OL, DL, etc.   Are you going to tell me that you believe WR has a bigger impact on success than those positions?  If the board shakes out as it has in this scenario then you could probably make an argument that WR provides the best value.

I have Mims and Reagor graded out MUCH higher than Jackson. Both have top 20 WR potential for me and have high floors too. Jackson is nowhere near as much of a sure thing IMO. Hence pull the trigger based on how the board falls.