AZ’s Final Pre-Draft Mock (probably)

[AZBearsFan]

(Player comps are my own)

TRADES

Draft pick values per this chart 

43 to BAL for 55 and 92 (470 ours 482 theirs)

55 to SEA for 59 and 133 (350 ours 349.5 theirs)

 

2-50 WR Michael Pittman Jr., USC 

NFL Bloodlines - son of the former Buccaneers RB of the same name. Pittman isn’t a prototypical speed WR (4.52 40) but is a highly effective deep receiver given his elite hands and size (6’4” 223 lb 👀). He’s also a great red zone target, a good run blocker on the perimeter, a reliable possession target and a tackle breaker after the catch. I would love a burner here, but not over talent. Pittman is a plug-and-play top 3 WR for us who can contribute at all levels of the route tree and who has massive long term potential. 

Comp: Alshon Jeffery 

 

2-59 OG John Simpson, Clemson 

I’m looking to add a guard who we can run behind consistently in short yardage situations and Simpson is just that. He has tackle length (34 1/8” arms) at guard and massive power at the point of attack and despite being limited athletically he is effective blocking on the move. I think Simpson would push to play early over Ifedi even without a ton of offseason work, and would quickly become a mainstay on the interior for us. 

Comp: Larry Warford 

 

3-92 S Brandon Jones, Texas 

We need a SS who can complement Eddie Jackson - that’s no secret. I think Jones can be just that. He’s a good run defender and a violent tackler with decent hands. Jones has experience covering slot receivers but probably shouldn’t be asked to fill that role much in the NFL at least early on, though I expect he can adequately cover TEs there. Jones would bring some intimidation back to our secondary with upper echelon athleticism, and with growth in coverage would be a true asset that should allow Jackson to do more of what he does best. I see his floor as a standout 4-phase ST player and a sub package/3rd safety.

Comp: Justin Evans 

 

4-133 OT Charlie Heck, North Carolina 

NFL Bloodlines - son of longtime NFL OL and former Bear Andy Heck, who has also been the Chiefs OL coach since 2013. The younger Heck is a huge specimen at 6’8” with experience starting at both tackle spots. He has the refined technique you’d expect from an OL coach’s son but also some of the anchor and leverage limitations you’d expect from a player who’s 6’8”. His experience on both sides of the line makes him an ideal developmental swing tackle candidate in 2020 with future starter potential. 

Comp: Jamarco Jones 

 

5-163 TE Thaddeus Moss, LSU

NFL Bloodlines - son of NFL HOF Randy Moss. This is a pick about 2021 and beyond for me since 2020 doesn’t appear to have a ton of immediate TE reps available for a rookie after the Graham and Harris signings even with Burton now out of the picture. Moss fits well with that - he’s an above average blocker at TE already who could force the issue to see the field on run downs earlier on, but while he has really good hands he might be a little bit limited athletically to fill the Kelce role in Nagy’s offense regularly. His ability to be an asset on all downs in the long term though fits what Nagy wants in a Y tight end, and he has the potential to become excellent in that role. He’ll come in the door no higher than TE3 for 2020 which is a good place to allow him to make his way into the lineup. I’m very high on his long term potential in any offensive scheme.

Comp: Cameron Brate

 

6-196 EDGE DJ Wonnum, South Carolina 

Wonnum is a good-not-great athlete on the edge who possesses desired length for the position (34 1/8” arms), a high compete level and good leadership qualities as a 3-year captain. His ceiling is most likely as a situational edge rusher and core ST but with some rush move development he would be pretty solid in that role. Opportunity is here for the taking behind Mack and Quinn. 

Comp: Duke Ejiofor 

 

6-200 DL Raequan Williams, Michigan State

Williams is a solid run defender who has flashed pass rush potential occasionally at MSU but inconsistency has him in a place where he’s going to be competing to work his way up the depth chart. He’s an average athlete at the position in need of tools development but if he’s able to do just that he can be a valuable reserve with the kind of positional versatility teams covet in top reserves. In 2020 he’d be expected to battle Brent Urban for a role on the 55-man roster. 

Comp: Nick Williams 

 

7-226 EDGE Kendall Coleman, Syracuse 

At this stage of the draft you’re targeting role players and upside swings. Coleman is the former - he’s not an elite athlete nor does he possess great length but he has very good pass rush technique and outstanding effort that has allowed him to be successful getting to the QB. Like Wonnum we probably maxes out as a situational edge rusher but that’s a role we don’t really have filled right now so I’m taking multiple swings at it.  

Comp: Jalen Jelks

 

7-233 P Michael Turk, Arizona State 

NFL Bloodlines - nephew of longtime NFL punter Matt Turk. There isn’t really a way to get around it - O’Donnell is an average to below average NFL punter. In 2019 he was 24th in punt yard average, 22nd in net punt yardage and 16th in punts inside the 20. 2019 wasn’t an outlier year either - O’Donnell has NEVER finished in the top half of the league in net average in 6 seasons. He has had a punt blocked in 4 of his 6 seasons too, and our kickers have been underwhelming (including Gould) since he became the regular holder which after several kickers I don’t see as a complete coincidence. Like O’Donnell, Turk has a huge leg and can flip the field. Unlike O’Donnell, he has upside. O’Donnell would leave just $100k in dead cap if released. It’s time he got legitimate competition. 

Comp: Donnie Jones

[Madmike90]

This would be pretty solid...not a fan of the first two picks but they would fill a need and after that it would be solid...Wonnum is a guy I really like as a development prospect.

[beardown3231]

Not thrilled about Simpson but the positional need is there. I'm starting to think they like Ifedi, Coward and to some degree Bars, so maybe they go OG in round3, 4 or 5. 

Otherwise I like it.

[AZBearsFan]

4 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Not thrilled about Simpson but the positional need is there. I'm starting to think they like Ifedi, Coward and to some degree Bars, so maybe they go OG in round3, 4 or 5. 

Otherwise I like it.

OG was a hard one for me to project - depending on who you read several guys could go anywhere from early 2 to late 3, and by the 3rd rounder in this mock at 92 I’m not sure any of them would be there. I think they like Ifedi more than Coward and enough for him to be their floor option for 2020 but even in a best case scenario where he’s really good in 2020 he’s only on a 1-year deal and could even price himself out of town. Ereck Flowers just got 3/$30M after one good-not-great season after shifting inside for God’s sake. The two things that had me going Simpson over Hunt here were level of competition and lack of a position change in an offseason with limited if any live contact. I like Hunt a whole lot too but have questions about him being week 1 ready because of the 2020 specific circumstances, and if I’m taking a round 2 guard I’d like to see them on the field right away. 

[WindyCity]

I like this.

The interior OL class is hard to get your head around. Everyone has Ruiz 1 and then it seems to be dealers choice.

Matt Hennessy fits the Daniels-Whitehair physical profile.

[WindyCity]

I also cannot see Pace trading down at both picks. I think he is too aggressive and has too much #conviction for that.

[AZBearsFan]

Just now, WindyCity said:

I also cannot see Pace trading down at both picks. I think he is too aggressive and has too much #conviction for that.

Stop trying to make fetch... errr... #conviction a thing, Windy. 😂

I originally had them trading for Baltimore’s lower 2 (43 for 60, 92 and 134) which was essentially the same thing and doesn’t really change anything here. 

[WindyCity]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Stop trying to make fetch... errr... #conviction a thing, Windy. 😂

I originally had them trading for Baltimore’s lower 2 (43 for 60, 92 and 134) which was essentially the same thing and doesn’t really change anything here. 

Until Ryan Pace is fired or we have a good QB #conviction will live on.

What I should have said is I would be surprised if he traded 43. I think 50 is on the table for sure maybe even for multiple move downs like he did with Whitehair and Shaheen. I have a harder time seeing "the cloud" being picked over at 43.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Until Ryan Pace is fired or we have a good QB #conviction will live on.

What I should have said is I would be surprised if he traded 43. I think 50 is on the table for sure maybe even for multiple move downs like he did with Whitehair and Shaheen. I have a harder time seeing "the cloud" being picked over at 43.

It’s all going to depend on the board. If his top choice for 43 is there then he makes the pick. If not then it’s likely someone’s top player on the board is there. We could make a small drop down from 43 too. Right after us are IND, TB and DEN. I could see Atlanta (47) missing a corner in round 1 and jumping ahead of Indy to get their corner of choice. Per the value chart I shared 43 to 47 should net us 143. Could see PIT (49) doing the same to get ahead of IND if they like a QB of the future. 43 to 49 should net us 124 and 198 per the chart. Picking at 47 and 50 or 49 and 50 assuming no further trades we’re getting 2 guys we like at 50, and maybe still 2 guys we’d take at 43. In a true BPA in which positional value isn’t a factor the difference between the players ranked at 43 and 50 is pretty negligible, and if that’s the approach then we’d be adding a 4th rounder for essentially no cost.

We’ve talked quite a bit about how we see the guys in the round 2-3 range at OG, WR and to a lesser extent CB as being largely jumbled and more overlapping than clearly defined in terms of their NFL projections. If Pace sees it the same then his WR5-8, OG 2-4 and CB 5-8 may all have nearly the exact same grade in which case a trade down makes the most sense anyway. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by AZBearsFan

[Sugashane]

I'm still against drafting a pure IOL but if so then Simpson is a guy I'd like. Keeps Whitehair entrenched at C, which I'm set on now. This is a solid draft. 

[SLCbear]

Beautiful outcome ! 

Its like having a normal draft with a pick in each round bc Pittman Jr is a 1st round talent, he is made for the NFL and at his size can run like a RB.  I took Pittman at 43 for us in that FF Mock draft (Dugger @50). 

Get a nice TE & S prospect, plenty of OL/Edge as early as possible and get the best P, ✔✔✔ ✔

How is this P from ASU ?? K can be sneaking great weapons ! Odennol's non outlier year as you pointed out was actually probably his best lmao !! so in his best year, he was good enough to be average  

How much would be owe toward future cap if we send PO packing during camp ?

[SLCbear]

If Cam Dantzler is there at 92, he is always the pick 

I think he will be looong gone by 92, I'd probably take him at 59 bc of Ifedi

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by SLCbear

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, SLCbear said:

How much would be owe toward future cap if we send PO packing during camp ?

It’s in the OP. His dead money would be just $100k. No future dead cap as 2020 is the last year of his deal.

The year 1 cap hit for the 233rd pick in last year’s draft (Chandler Cox) was $517,641, so the 2020 cap savings going from O’Donnell ($1.85M cap hit in 2020) to a rookie P taken where I have us taking Turk would be ~$1.2M. 

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, SLCbear said:

If Cam Dantzler is there at 92, he is always the pick 

I think he will be looong gone by 92, I'd probably take him at 59 bc of Ifedi

I ALMOST gave us Dantzler at 59. I’m really high on him, and went back and forth between he and a guard for like 2 days before finalizing. Here’s what I wrote in that incarnation: 

“CB Cameron Dantzler, Mississippi St

Some will be scared off by Dantzler’s 40 time at the combine (4.64), but not me. Just watch the tape against 1st round talents in Chase, Jefferson, Jeudy, Ruggs, Smith and Waddle. Those guys are all 4.4 or lower, and none of them are running away from Dantzler on the field. He’s an instinctive bigger corner (6’2” 188lb) who excels in press man and in defending 50/50 balls. He’s also active in run support. He’s not a top tier wrap tackler and has a tendency to get handsy. With our pass rush I value instincts over elite straight line speed in our boundary corners, but even at that Dantzler is fast enough between the lines that speed isn’t a concern for me. I love his swagger too - he seems like a great fit with our group. 

Comp: Samari Rolle”

[SLCbear]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

It’s in the OP. His dead money would be just $100k. No future dead cap as 2020 is the last year of his deal.

The year 1 cap hit for the 233rd pick in last year’s draft (Chandler Cox) was $517,641, so the 2020 cap savings going from O’Donnell ($1.85M cap hit in 2020) to a rookie P taken where I have us taking Turk would be ~$1.2M. 

oh wow, I thought PO had another year or 2 of cap hit ! 

Yea we need to upgrade there.