This draft might be a case study in draft strategy

[massraider]

Reading the Edwards thread, the quote from Mayock about the team having a 2nd round grade on Edwards.

I said somewhere it felt like Bowden was a target, and Edwards was a value, like Amik--"We couldn't believe he was still there."  The draft felt like two groups: Their guys, and BPA.

Their targets: Ruggs, Arnette, Bowden, Muse.

BPA: Edwards, Amik, Simpson. 

I'm assuming BPA at a position of need. Anyone that believes teams regularly take the top guy on their board, regardless of position......well, that's just sweet.  

One could argue Simpson was their guy, but they passed on him three times in the 3rd, twice for players projecting to other positions.  They traded up when the  value in the 4th was too great to ignore, plus I think they were, correctly, thinking: "This one guy has a better chance to help this team than two lesser prospects. Let's get him, and we're done with this draft. "

 

Anyway:  Four guys I can easily make a case for as reaches, and three guys that represented value, according to most evaluators, as well as the team. Mayock and Gruden didn't go on and on about what steals the first 4 guys were, they were targets at those spots. It ill be interesting to see how the two groups pan out, and how Mayock and Gruden adapt.

[Humble_Beast]

41 minutes ago, massraider said:

Reading the Edwards thread, the quote from Mayock about the team having a 2nd round grade on Edwards.

I said somewhere it felt like Bowden was a target, and Edwards was a value, like Amik--"We couldn't believe he was still there."  The draft felt like two groups: Their guys, and BPA.

Their targets: Ruggs, Arnette, Bowden, Muse.

BPA: Edwards, Amik, Simpson. 

I'm assuming BPA at a position of need. Anyone that believes teams regularly take the top guy on their board, regardless of position......well, that's just sweet.  

One could argue Simpson was their guy, but they passed on him three times in the 3rd, twice for players projecting to other positions.  They traded up when the  value in the 4th was too great to ignore, plus I think they were, correctly, thinking: "This one guy has a better chance to help this team than two lesser prospects. Let's get him, and we're done with this draft. "

 

Anyway:  Four guys I can easily make a case for as reaches, and three guys that represented value, according to most evaluators, as well as the team. Mayock and Gruden didn't go on and on about what steals the first 4 guys were, they were targets at those spots. It ill be interesting to see how the two groups pan out, and how Mayock and Gruden adapt.

Can’t wait to see it all play out. We have such a young team full of potential. Simpson easily graded out as a 3rd or 4th rounder so people wouldn’t have thought twice if we picked him with the last 3rd. Raiders must have really liked Muse because he could have been there in the 4th or with the 5th we traded away. We shall see 

[NCOUGHMAN]

I think prospects will value the combine more after this year. Can’t put all your hopes in pro day cause you never know what could happen 

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, massraider said:

Reading the Edwards thread, the quote from Mayock about the team having a 2nd round grade on Edwards.

I said somewhere it felt like Bowden was a target, and Edwards was a value, like Amik--"We couldn't believe he was still there."  The draft felt like two groups: Their guys, and BPA.

Their targets: Ruggs, Arnette, Bowden, Muse.

BPA: Edwards, Amik, Simpson. 

I'm assuming BPA at a position of need. Anyone that believes teams regularly take the top guy on their board, regardless of position......well, that's just sweet.  

One could argue Simpson was their guy, but they passed on him three times in the 3rd, twice for players projecting to other positions.  They traded up when the  value in the 4th was too great to ignore, plus I think they were, correctly, thinking: "This one guy has a better chance to help this team than two lesser prospects. Let's get him, and we're done with this draft. "

 

Anyway:  Four guys I can easily make a case for as reaches, and three guys that represented value, according to most evaluators, as well as the team. Mayock and Gruden didn't go on and on about what steals the first 4 guys were, they were targets at those spots. It ill be interesting to see how the two groups pan out, and how Mayock and Gruden adapt.

I really love, love, love your post.   I’ve been saying the same thing in other ways lately... like I feel like this post kind of summarized my rambling ideas.

and thank you for saying it! Teams don’t go just by BPA!!! It’s a mixture of BPA (whose next on the is big board) and positional value... etc.... it’s a mixture of a few things 

we have a real good idea who Mayock is now.  He’s going into the draft with a plan of what positions he’s gonna hit.  He ranks each position into “tiers” and will value CB4 over CB2 if he is a significantly better fit to the team.

example:  I think Mayock’s CB board looked Something  like this:

Tier 1: 1st rounders 

1 Okudah , 2 Terrell, 3 Henderson, 4 Arnette

Tier 2: second rounders

5/6/7 Gladney+Fulton+Johnson, 8/9 Diggs/Igbinoghene  

Tier 3: third/4th rounders 

Robertson, hall, dantzler, pride, holmes, Robinson, etc

Mayock wasn’t likely to have been offered a 1st and 2nd in a trade down and that wasn’t enough for him to be willing to accept possibly having to settle for a tier 2 CB not a tier 1 CB.  

Let’s be honest how much difference is there between any players in each tier?  Not much... I mean even Okudah really want THAT much better than his teammate Arnette.

Besides going into the draft with a list of “to do’s” and a few players he likes at each item in his shopping list.... he is also willing to double up on items if he sees value... this is shown by the crosby and Robertson picks 

(like when I go to the store to get a single box of cereal And their 2/$6.... it’s a good deal so I buy 2! Lol)

I also think we have to realize Mayock’s thinking that he’s drafting players to be the “core” of the team he’s trying to create.  That’s why he’s willing to reach on value (Ferrell, Arnette, Muse).  I understand and value that idea.  We’ve stunk for a long time and we need to bring in a new “core”. Going back to the “tiers” idea he’s willing to take DE3 Ferrell over DE2 Allen because he felt Ferrell was a better fit for his core.  
 

I’m finally understanding and digging Mayock’s holistic business management approach to the draft.  It’s not about going after the best player with every individual pick.... it’s about building a team from scratch, using FA to fill in holes.  Getting value in rounds 3-4.  Building your “core” in rounds 1-2.  
 

I feel once people understand his mindset and philosophy the picks make more sense..... it’s not about getting the BPA or getting every player at the lowest possible spot.

honestly I think he’s on to something and I’m happy he’s bringing this approach to the draft.  It’s much different than we are use to.  We haven’t had success the other way so I know i personally am willing to give his style a shot.   And I think the critics (I was one of Them and guilty of this) are not understanding his philosophy and getting tunnel vision from “group think” and letting like rankings and mock drafts from sites like thedraftnetworks rankings tell us This is how we should have ranked the players.

[jimkelly02]

1 hour ago, Humble_Beast said:

Can’t wait to see it all play out. We have such a young team full of potential. Simpson easily graded out as a 3rd or 4th rounder so people wouldn’t have thought twice if we picked him with the last 3rd. Raiders must have really liked Muse because he could have been there in the 4th or with the 5th we traded away. We shall see 

I disagree with the Muse pick but think I’m guessing Mayock felt like he could take Muse at 100 then trade up in forth and get the guy he would have otherwise taken.

if the idea was to get Muse and a G with the next to picks and you feel like a Muse might go before the pick you can trade up to in the forth round, plus you value Simpson and Kindley very closely and realize one of them will be there..... then I understand the thought process 

[bionicsuperfreak]

Coach Gruden said he loves Bryan Edwards. Reminds him of a TO type body. I can see it. He's chiseled and has some twitch. That's a value pick all day. Mayock said 2nd rd grade. This was my favorite pick until they all became my favorite picks. 

Muse is an interesting one. That became a value pick. After trading back off 91. Ok. Get an extra pick. Drop down 10-12 spots. You're still there. Ok. That's enough. I've never seen Muse tape. But if he's a 230 pound LB that runs a 4.39. I'm sure. He'll stick around. 

Simpson becomes a value pick. They traded up for him. That's enough. We'll take him now.

Robertson Mayock said was trade out of 139 or Amik. This is how perfectly slotted that was. It was the first compensation pick of the 4th round. The importance is... I don't think he's good enough if I'm a playoff team or not to justify within my first four picks. And I think that's why he's there. He's too short. Yada. Yada. But comp 4th rd. Now, we're gambling....

Ruggs was the top target. For the Raiders. To make them the most complete team. BPA at position of need. The top spot. 

Arnette. They claim was 25-40 pick range. Could you fall back? Maybe. But maybe he's not there. Another BPA at a position of need. 

And then I think Bowden was the gimmicky, special team, gadgety type playmaker teams love in the 3rd round. This is a value pick, bc I think the kid can play. And help in a multitude of ways. 

[jimkelly02]

6 minutes ago, bionicsuperfreak said:

Coach Gruden said he loves Bryan Edwards. Reminds him of a TO type body. I can see it. He's chiseled and has some twitch. That's a value pick all day. Mayock said 2nd rd grade. This was my favorite pick until they all became my favorite picks. ....

Are you new’ish to the forum?  If so welcome!  I really like what you had to say and you hit some good points.

I will disagree with the evaluation of Robertson, somewhat.  Many of the guys loved him before the draft, wanted him at 80/81.  I too really liked him but said I’d wait til 91, really want him as a steal at 121 but “know” he won’t make it.  If you exclude the top prospects who project to the outside, I think Robertson was the 2nd best slot CB in the draft.  Noah Igbinoghene (who possible could play outside but is far more favored in the slot) then Robertson... slightly behind him was Troy Pride and a sizable gap before Holmes and Vildor.  It’s more people than not around her who prior to the draft thought he could at least be the starter next year I’d drafted (Joyner has almost zero chance of staying unless he plays up to what he pay him and even then takes pay cut) if not win the starting sCB job by the end of the year.  I’d Compare him (not by style of play but just overall skill) To Kendall Sheffield (3rd RD) and a full notch above  Ugochukwu Amadi (4th RD) last year; on par with MJ Steward (2nd RD) and  Duke Dawson (2nd RD) in ‘18.  There’s a lot to like about his skills and his physical, Gritty style of play.  In an interview he said he’s now healthy but he believes the inability to workout and have his injury (I forget what it was) checked by doctors pushed in down the board, but who knows what really happened, of course he thought he should have gone higher.  
 

I think he was certainly in play at our pick 100, but we just went with a different position.  By the time he got picked he was  such a good deal we couldn’t say no.  It wasn’t Like we didn’t want him cuz of value at 100 and 109.  We just choose to fill other positional needs over vm doubling up on a CB.  By 139 he was just too good to pass up.  I don’t think it’s that by pick 139 he’s now worth the gamble.  It was more if we have holes to fill, as to why he didn’t get chosen with our previous picks.  It’s not like we needed another slot CB with Joyner starting and a young and promising Neisan Nixon and Nick Nelson.  He’s going to be a real steal.  I love his attitude! Did you see his interview? He’s mad, you could sense the emotion. He has a big chip on his shoulder To prove doubters wrong.  He’s definitely going to come in 100mph fighting.  You can’t not love that type of guy.

I also really like the pick of Bryan Edwards.  I preferred Michael Pittman and Tee Higgins a good bit And was wishfully thinking when I hoped they’d fall to 80 or at least fall to 68-74 and we could trade up for him.  A lot of guys here liked him pre-draft and wanted him in the third.  He’s got that NBA SF build: tall, strong, muscular but has speed from his power.  He was criminally misused and I’d even say underdeveloped at South Carolina.  Their QBs stunk and they threw him screens for over 50% of his targets.  He’s athletic and actually did well with his screen catches but the guy can get downfield and not utilizing him more was Not due to his lack of skill by any means.  Some people have critiqued his lower contested catch percentage but I don’t think that’s an accurate assessment of him.... have you seen the ones he did catch? There all amazing highlights.  I think he could stand to improve on this like anyone else but the issue was more due I bad QBs throwing poor passes.  He’s definitely a mid 2nd round talent.  I have high hopes for him as a xWR and he pairs nicely with Ruggs as a zWR.  Edwards ability to best press with good footwork and hand usage plus his speed and size (is it just need or does he look 225 not 212? With the ability to get even bigger).  I think he could also be used at times (to get him on the field more/faster) as a big slot WR (like NO uses Michael Thomas).  He’ll be a big, physical target with huge catch radius and can threaten the intermediate to deep routes.  He’s going to have to improve his route tree though.  He’s not a bad route runner nor great, he as just criminally underdeveloped and misused in school.

again, welcome to the board and thanks for joining us and chiming in.  Hope to hear more from you!

[bionicsuperfreak]

18 minutes ago, jimkelly02 said:

Are you new’ish to the forum?  If so welcome!  I really like what you had to say and you hit some good points.

I will disagree with the evaluation of Robertson, somewhat.  Many of the guys loved him before the draft, wanted him at 80/81.  I too really liked him but said I’d wait til 91, really want him as a steal at 121 but “know” he won’t make it.  If you exclude the top prospects who project to the outside, I think Robertson was the 2nd best slot CB in the draft.  Noah Igbinoghene (who possible could play outside but is far more favored in the slot) then Robertson... slightly behind him was Troy Pride and a sizable gap before Holmes and Vildor.  It’s more people than not around her who prior to the draft thought he could at least be the starter next year I’d drafted (Joyner has almost zero chance of staying unless he plays up to what he pay him and even then takes pay cut) if not win the starting sCB job by the end of the year.  I’d Compare him (not by style of play but just overall skill) To Kendall Sheffield (3rd RD) and a full notch above  Ugochukwu Amadi (4th RD) last year; on par with MJ Steward (2nd RD) and  Duke Dawson (2nd RD) in ‘18.  There’s a lot to like about his skills and his physical, Gritty style of play.  In an interview he said he’s now healthy but he believes the inability to workout and have his injury (I forget what it was) checked by doctors pushed in down the board, but who knows what really happened, of course he thought he should have gone higher.  
 

I think he was certainly in play at our pick 100, but we just went with a different position.  By the time he got picked he was  such a good deal we couldn’t say no.  It wasn’t Like we didn’t want him cuz of value at 100 and 109.  We just choose to fill other positional needs over vm doubling up on a CB.  By 139 he was just too good to pass up.  I don’t think it’s that by pick 139 he’s now worth the gamble.  It was more if we have holes to fill, as to why he didn’t get chosen with our previous picks.  It’s not like we needed another slot CB with Joyner starting and a young and promising Neisan Nixon and Nick Nelson.  He’s going to be a real steal.  I love his attitude! Did you see his interview? He’s mad, you could sense the emotion. He has a big chip on his shoulder To prove doubters wrong.  He’s definitely going to come in 100mph fighting.  You can’t not love that type of guy.

I also really like the pick of Bryan Edwards.  I preferred Michael Pittman and Tee Higgins a good bit And was wishfully thinking when I hoped they’d fall to 80 or at least fall to 68-74 and we could trade up for him.  A lot of guys here liked him pre-draft and wanted him in the third.  He’s got that NBA SF build: tall, strong, muscular but has speed from his power.  He was criminally misused and I’d even say underdeveloped at South Carolina.  Their QBs stunk and they threw him screens for over 50% of his targets.  He’s athletic and actually did well with his screen catches but the guy can get downfield and not utilizing him more was Not due to his lack of skill by any means.  Some people have critiqued his lower contested catch percentage but I don’t think that’s an accurate assessment of him.... have you seen the ones he did catch? There all amazing highlights.  I think he could stand to improve on this like anyone else but the issue was more due I bad QBs throwing poor passes.  He’s definitely a mid 2nd round talent.  I have high hopes for him as a xWR and he pairs nicely with Ruggs as a zWR.  Edwards ability to best press with good footwork and hand usage plus his speed and size (is it just need or does he look 225 not 212? With the ability to get even bigger).  I think he could also be used at times (to get him on the field more/faster) as a big slot WR (like NO uses Michael Thomas).  He’ll be a big, physical target with huge catch radius and can threaten the intermediate to deep routes.  He’s going to have to improve his route tree though.  He’s not a bad route runner nor great, he as just criminally underdeveloped and misused in school.

again, welcome to the board and thanks for joining us and chiming in.  Hope to hear more from you!

I love a good chime. Whimsical. Yet refreshing. 

My point on Robertson is when teams have a hierarchy of needs I just don't think they'd put him in their top 4. Slot CB is below RB. And RB is the lowest. Look. This is a great pick. A slot CB that generates pressure from the outside is a great asset to have. A classic tale of if he's 5'10". He goes first round. But that's what makes him who he is. 

Bryan Edwards. Worst QB play I've ever seen. Dying quails fluttering through the air. You'd be surprised he even reeled in a few balls.

This guy throws like my fairy Godmother. 

[massraider]

Amik was my favorite pick, and he was a Raider Nation favorite most of the spring, He's all over Twitter leading up to the draft. Watching the Raiders cover slot WRs on 3rd and 4 has been ulcer-inducing for my entire adult life. I value slot CB slightly less than outside corner, and above LB2. Just the way the NFL is now. There have been several good defense recently with average to bad LB play. A team just won the Super Bowl with a roster of LBs we wouldn't want. Raiders should have taken him in the 3rd. (Considering he fell to #139, I'm incorrect, I guess.)

The Muse pick was mitigated by the trade down, which allowed them to get Simpson, a move that looks really good to me.  If Muse is a decent coverage LB, and ST stud, it's worth it to me. Not the upside of others, but not the downside, either. This move, and the preference to trade down and get Cle is a good sign to me. The fact that no one wanted to trade up for Allen or Burns is a bummer, but at last Mayock is on record as saying they wanted to trade down. It shows an awareness of draft value (we rated Cle higher than others). I think they got nervous with Arnette, they had him rated over Fulton/Jaylon/Igbinoghene, and didn't want to risk losing him. If they were only getting a late 3rd rounder, I can see why.

Quote

Patriots trade pick to Chargers

• Chargers receive 23rd pick (Kenneth Murray, LB)
• Patriots receive 37th (Kyle Dugger, S) and 71st (3) overall picks; send 71st pick to Ravens

Vikings trade pick to 49ers

• 49ers receive 25th pick (Brandon Aiyuk, WR)
• Vikings receive 31st (Jeff Gladney, CB), 117th (4) and 176th (5) overall picks

Dolphins trade pick to Packers

• Packers receive 26th pick (Jordan Love, QB)
• Dolphins receive 30th (Noah Igbinoghene, CB), 136th (4) overall picks

Those were the 1st round trades, after our spot. No one cleaned up. (I, personally, wanted no part of Igbinoghene. Project, measurables, yada yada yada. I want a guy who plays CB, and Arnette has been one of the top OSU CB for three years.) If all you are gonna get is a 4th rounder, meh. Take your guy. You can get a 4th rounder later, when boards diverge a lot more, and you can get 'your guy'. Raiders probably had Arnette ranked much higher over the others, and the fact that CBs fell to late 2nd tells me he had at least those other CBs rated correctly. 

In the draft, you need some luck, as well. Were the Raiders lucky that Edwrds, Simpson, and Amik fell? If so, it's three positions of varying need, and that's good luck.  

Edited April 30, 2020 by massraider

[Darbsk]

8 hours ago, bionicsuperfreak said:

I love a good chime. Whimsical. Yet refreshing. 

My point on Robertson is when teams have a hierarchy of needs I just don't think they'd put him in their top 4. Slot CB is below RB. And RB is the lowest. Look. This is a great pick. A slot CB that generates pressure from the outside is a great asset to have. A classic tale of if he's 5'10". He goes first round. But that's what makes him who he is. 

Bryan Edwards. Worst QB play I've ever seen. Dying quails fluttering through the air. You'd be surprised he even reeled in a few balls.

This guy throws like my fairy Godmother. 

I love the Robertson pick and view him as a potential Pro Bowl slot corner moving forward. With regard to the position value, I'm probably a rarity in that I value slot CB highly, probably more than the OLBs.

Lots of teams nowadays looking for mismatches there and lots of teams running a base 11 personnel set with 3 WRs. Look at the successes teams like the Pats and Chiefs have had with the slot receiver playing a very significant role. Also, when you look at the numbers, we're paying our slot CB as much as all the other starting DBs combined! 

[G]

Conspiracy Theory fun...

I think Edwards was picked after Bowden because that was a 'Mack' pick and if he balls it will make the trade look even better if he has an Allen Robinson type of career.

Now moving on. LOL 

Ruggs obviously was our #1 WR because all were on the board. He opens up more of the offense 'team' to allow everyone to eat more. Even if he gets less targets it opens up the others when he's on the field. Trading down would have netted us picks but we spread the Lamb rumor and SF was rumored to want Ruggs. Had we traded down we still would have gotten a great WR because there were 3 but if SF rumors were real then they get him and maybe trade up before us...So draft strategy is GET YOUR GUY...

Arnette was probably CB #3 being Henderson tackled worse than Greedy and they passed on Greedy for Mullen. I think Terrell going when he did had us worried about a CB run. Had Arnette tested well, maybe he's the pick instead of Terrell for Falcons. A 40 under 4.4 coming from DB U probably moves him right behind his teammate. Maybe he's a Jag?!? So I understand why we didn't trade down because it's possible others viewed him similarly. CB was a need and they Got their guy...

Understanding the first two rounds is what sets Mayock apart from the casual fan like myself. I see reaches but he sees 'his guy' and his late round moves always impress me. Muse was a head scratcher but after last seasons late rounders I can wait and see what he does on the field for two seasons before judging that pick. All others make sense with needing a high powered Offense to compete in the AFC West and needing DB's to cover all the talent in the West. Wild Wild West...

Just got back from Vegas and the stadium looked GREAT. Was too hot for me to stay being I couldn't enjoy a casino hotel pool and powerful AC. LOL

 

[jimkelly02]

10 hours ago, bionicsuperfreak said:

I love a good chime. Whimsical. Yet refreshing. 

My point on Robertson is when teams have a hierarchy of needs I just don't think they'd put him in their top 4. Slot CB is below RB. And RB is the lowest. Look. This is a great pick. A slot CB that generates pressure from the outside is a great asset to have. A classic tale of if he's 5'10". He goes first round. But that's what makes him who he is. 

Bryan Edwards. Worst QB play I've ever seen. Dying quails fluttering through the air. You'd be surprised he even reeled in a few balls.

This guy throws like my fairy Godmother. 

I must have misunderstood you because the hierarchy of needs I exactly why I didn’t want him at 80/81 but would take him at 91... but really wanted him at 121 before the draft.

I think there’s a few reasons that combined to cause Robertson’s slide from late 3rd to late 4th.... which really isn’t THAT far.  I’m sure a bunch of teams went into the draft wanting him around the late 3rd but they traded that pick away/traded up, someone else fell they liked, already went CB, etc

it just happens to some guys that they fall but im very he did for our sake and he’s gonna come day 1 to camp to fight I love that 

[HvacRaider]

Muse and simmons switched roles alot in the clemson defensive schemes. He is a big , fast, versatile defender. He played LB, CB,S, and even  some D line. He is who i think will show to be the steal of the draft for vegas..