2020 Sleepers

[Humble_Beast]

3 hours ago, Formula 14 said:

Will Fuller was among the most popular mid-round sleepers this year and if yesterday was any indication, he's going to make a lot of teams happy this year. I personally drafted him in the 6th round of a 12-team 2 keeper league, but was very bullish on him this year. Believe it or not, I had him as my WR9. The upside was just too great to ignore. 

He's missed a lot of games over his career so you can't simply dismiss it. He's averaged 10.5 games per season in his career, but if he manages to play 11 games this year, teams that drafted him as a WR2-4 are still going to benefit greatly. If he manages to play 14-16, I'm confident he'll end up as a top 12 receiver when its all said and done.

I expect him to average 8.5 targets per game, and when you factor in his career 61.2% catch rate (69.8% in 2018-19) coupled with more opportunities in the short-intermediate range with DeAndre Hopkins gone, Fuller is going to absolutely feast this season. 

 

Projected Stat Line 

13 games: 76 rec/111 tar, 1100 yards, 6 TDs      (14.2 ppg half PPR; 184 pts overall) 

Fuller can be good if he stays healthy. Guy always gets hurt 

[EaglesFlySBChampsHigh]

On 9/10/2020 at 2:13 AM, Humble_Beast said:

I been wondering the same thing

i been hearing good things about Fant/Hockenson/Goedert/Gesicki/Jarwin/ Jonnu / Herndon. All are talented 

I’m torn, I current have Fant. I don’t know to drop him for one of those guys. Everyone a free agent except Gesicki in my league. 
 

Fant- can he make the second year jump after flashing last year. A lot of mouths to feed, but had connection with fellow 2nd year QB Drew Lock. He’s a good player and freak athlete. 
 

Hockenson- another freak athlete, who was drafted top 10. Trained in the summer with George Kittle. Plays with a great QB, on a pass happy team. Had a great camp, but is his ankle okay? 
 

Dallas- Eagles will be running a lot of 2 Tes sets. He came in strong last year. He really might be the 2nd option on a pass happy offense. Jackson is a volume monster, Reagor and Jeffries are hurt. Very talented player 
 

Gesicki- He’s getting the hype. Dolphins might be pass heavy due to being a bad team. Gesicki started to come on last year after looking like a bust. Questions about his volume since Preston Williams will be back and looks like an emerging star. Also didn’t break any tackles last year. Crazy stat

Jarwin- a lot of experts hyping him up due to his target share. He could be solid, but idk if he is a good player. Those targets could go to 1st round pick Ceedee Lamb in 3 wideout sets. 
 

Herdon- Jets offense might be bad, but he can be a target monster. Last year was a lost year but Herndon had chemistry with Darnold during their rookie years. He’s a good football player who could see a lot of targets. 

Jonnu- taking over the Delani Walker role, and is a solid all around player. I think he could be a TE1 on that offense 

How would you rank them?

fant 

hock

herndon 

jonnu ?  

 

The opposite of what you have it

[Humble_Beast]

25 minutes ago, EaglesFlySBChampsHigh said:

The opposite of what you have it

Come on man.. explain yourself ??

[EaglesFlySBChampsHigh]

13 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

Come on man.. explain yourself ??

Flip the list.

Jonnu

Herndon 

Hock

Fant

Maybe should of said flip instead of opposite

[Humble_Beast]

1 hour ago, EaglesFlySBChampsHigh said:

Flip the list.

Jonnu

Herndon 

Hock

Fant

Maybe should of said flip instead of opposite

What’s your reasoning ?

[Formula 14]

21 hours ago, Humble_Beast said:

Fuller can be good if he stays healthy. Guy always gets hurt 

I know but again, most people didn’t draft him to be a WR2, so many aren’t relying on him too heavily.

I was a lot more bullish—I always draft 8-9 RBs and only 4 WRs I’m really high on. So (for now) I’m relying on he, Ridley, Diontae Johnson, and Deebo Samuel until I inevitably trade for a top WR given my RB depth 😌

[Humble_Beast]

On 9/3/2020 at 3:31 PM, Formula 14 said:

My favorite deep sleeper this year is Jerrick McKinnon. 

1. The 3rd RB in SF's offense has value considering that there were times when all 3 of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Matt Brieda were fantasy-relevant last year.
2. All indications are that McKinnon is healthy, has been one of the fastest players on the field, and is by far the best pass catcher of the RB group. For what its worth, the second knee injury was not another tear to his ACL- it was to repair other lingering issue with the knee. So technically speaking, he's more than 2 years removed from ACL surgery. 
3. Despite not having any significant production in his NFL career, Shanahan saw something to give him a 4 year, $30 million when he initially signed as a free agent. Back in 2018, Shanahan said he got "lost" watching his game tape, suggesting he had so many ideas how he could use him, particularly as a receiver- citing his ability to separate and beat linebackers/safeties in man-to-man coverage. Note: he's been burning Kwon Alexander and Fred Warner in practice, two of the fastest linebackers around. 
4. Furthermore, Shanahan said he felt McKinnon was a 3 down back, and there were rumors he would assume the "Devonta Freeman" role, which involved goal-line work and being utilized heavy as a pass-catcher. 
5. Comparatively speaking, they only gave Tevin Coleman 2 years, $10 million as a UFA (whom he had coached before) and an additional $2.75 million available via incentives to Raheem Mostert's existing 3 year, $8.7 million contract (in its second year). 

If McKinnon is anywhere close to what they envisioned him to be when he was signed, he's going to carve out a significant role for himself, and if Raheem/Tevin regress or get injured, McKinnon can wind up ending the 2021 season as a high-end RB2. 

 

Stat Projection: 100 attempts, 450 rushing yards, 4 TDs --- 35 receptions, 250 yards, 2 TDs (2019: RB38 in 0.5 PPR)

Ceiling Projection: 150 attempts, 700 yards, 8 TDs --- 55 receptions, 465 yards, 4 TDs (2019: RB16 in 0.5 PPR) 

I think I’m going to drop Joe Burrow for McKinnon tomorrow morning. I play in full ppr and can see him blowing up.... I have Big Ben as my QB 

[Formula 14]

On 9/3/2020 at 6:31 PM, Formula 14 said:

My favorite deep sleeper this year is Jerrick McKinnon. 

1. The 3rd RB in SF's offense has value considering that there were times when all 3 of Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Matt Brieda were fantasy-relevant last year.
2. All indications are that McKinnon is healthy, has been one of the fastest players on the field, and is by far the best pass catcher of the RB group. For what its worth, the second knee injury was not another tear to his ACL- it was to repair other lingering issue with the knee. So technically speaking, he's more than 2 years removed from ACL surgery. 
3. Despite not having any significant production in his NFL career, Shanahan saw something to give him a 4 year, $30 million when he initially signed as a free agent. Back in 2018, Shanahan said he got "lost" watching his game tape, suggesting he had so many ideas how he could use him, particularly as a receiver- citing his ability to separate and beat linebackers/safeties in man-to-man coverage. Note: he's been burning Kwon Alexander and Fred Warner in practice, two of the fastest linebackers around. 
4. Furthermore, Shanahan said he felt McKinnon was a 3 down back, and there were rumors he would assume the "Devonta Freeman" role, which involved goal-line work and being utilized heavy as a pass-catcher. 
5. Comparatively speaking, they only gave Tevin Coleman 2 years, $10 million as a UFA (whom he had coached before) and an additional $2.75 million available via incentives to Raheem Mostert's existing 3 year, $8.7 million contract (in its second year). 

If McKinnon is anywhere close to what they envisioned him to be when he was signed, he's going to carve out a significant role for himself, and if Raheem/Tevin regress or get injured, McKinnon can wind up ending the 2021 season as a high-end RB2. 

 

Stat Projection: 100 attempts, 450 rushing yards, 4 TDs --- 35 receptions, 250 yards, 2 TDs (2019: RB38 in 0.5 PPR)

Ceiling Projection: 150 attempts, 700 yards, 8 TDs --- 55 receptions, 465 yards, 4 TDs (2019: RB16 in 0.5 PPR) 

Through 3 games: 30 attempts, 139 rushing yards, 2 TDs --- 6 receptions, 59 yards, 1 TDs (currently 40.8 points; RB17 in 0.5PPR)

16 game projection: 160 attempts, 741 yards, 11 TDs --- 32 receptions, 315 yards, 5 TDs (217.6 points) 

 

Obviously his 16-game projection is not sustainable, but slowly proving to be that high-floor flex/RB-3 with RB2 upside.

😌

[N4L]

On 9/30/2020 at 11:38 AM, Formula 14 said:

Through 3 games: 30 attempts, 139 rushing yards, 2 TDs --- 6 receptions, 59 yards, 1 TDs (currently 40.8 points; RB17 in 0.5PPR)

16 game projection: 160 attempts, 741 yards, 11 TDs --- 32 receptions, 315 yards, 5 TDs (217.6 points) 

 

Obviously his 16-game projection is not sustainable, but slowly proving to be that high-floor flex/RB-3 with RB2 upside

It was clear McKinnon was going to have a role in this offense after week 1 so you were spot on with this one. 

mostert has only played 6 quarters and Coleman went on IR, but mostert might come back this week or next, so McKinnon will most certainly not sustain his current trajectory. 

Solid bye week flex option though 

On 9/12/2020 at 6:50 AM, EaglesFlySBChampsHigh said:

Jonnu

Good call on this one. I made a bunch of posts in an another thread about him, and so did LBC. 

Jonnu is gonna blow up this week in primetime. Top 5 TE this year