KingOfNewYork Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Bobby816 said: I can see that point. But you completely lose out on seeing who takes a leap and who regresses. You are basing a draft pick based on what they did 18 months ago on the field and workouts. Not exactly a great gage on how to use valuable picks and millions of dollars. I’ve never really witnessed huge drop offs from sophomore to junior year so guys who were good should still be good/better. The guys who we don’t see in terms of leaps will probably go back to school for that very reason. The uncertainty of their draft position will cause them to return and prove themselves. I mean would you pass on Gregory Rousseau, who’s opting out, because we wouldn’t have seen him in 18 months? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 44 minutes ago, KingOfNewYork said: I’ve never really witnessed huge drop offs from sophomore to junior year so guys who were good should still be good/better. The guys who we don’t see in terms of leaps will probably go back to school for that very reason. The uncertainty of their draft position will cause them to return and prove themselves. I mean would you pass on Gregory Rousseau, who’s opting out, because we wouldn’t have seen him in 18 months? No I wouldnt pass on him. But he also isn't a sure thing bc of that reason. He hasn't played football in 18 months. Lets even look at our own rookie for example. Zuniga after his 2018 season would have probably gone late 1st into the 2nd Round. He came back got injured and didn't produce as much so slipped to the 3rd. So that 1 season cost him nearly 40 picks. Time will tell if he is a steal or not. The point being it makes the draft a lot more of a guess. The guy you draft in Round 1 might be a 4th round talent. Same was as the guy you draft in Round 3 could be a 1st round talent. It just makes the draft a lot more of a guess than a sure thing (more so than usual). SO it wouldn't be a bad draft year to trade picks for proven NFL talent. For example trade a 2nd for Yannik. We'd still have 2 1st and 2 3rds in the draft and a proven edge rusher. That 2nd isn't as valuable if you ask me with our draft capital, our cap space and the players in the draft being more of a risk than usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDotNova Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Interesting conversation. My view is that high draft picks are going to be more valuable this year. Rising Jrs who excelled in their sophomore year will declare for the draft. Those Jrs who didn’t play well enough to be top half the draft picks will go back for their senior year. I’m also assuming rising seniors will get an extra year of eligibility. So a guy like Joe Borrow, who blew up his senior year, would have returned to school because, based on his Jr year, his draft status was uncertain. I think we’re looking pretty solid for next year actually. A lot of the rising Jrs that blew up this year were WRs. Those guys are going to declare for the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 minute ago, SDotNova said: Interesting conversation. My view is that high draft picks are going to be more valuable this year. Rising Jrs who excelled in their sophomore year will declare for the draft. Those Jrs who didn’t play well enough to be top half the draft picks will go back for their senior year. I’m also assuming rising seniors will get an extra year of eligibility. So a guy like Joe Borrow, who blew up his senior year, would have returned to school because, based on his Jr year, his draft status was uncertain. I think we’re looking pretty solid for next year actually. A lot of the rising Jrs that blew up this year were WRs. Those guys are going to declare for the draft. We're for sure in a great spot. And I know its just 1 sample size.. but I trust JD and his scouts for the draft after IMO a great draft. But it still has a lot more uncertainty to the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDotNova Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 minute ago, Bobby816 said: We're for sure in a great spot. And I know its just 1 sample size.. but I trust JD and his scouts for the draft after IMO a great draft. But it still has a lot more uncertainty to the draft. Definitely more uncertainty. It would be nice to see Ja’Marr Chase play without Joe Burrow. It’s difficult to know who made who. My gut tells me the LSU WRs and coaching helped Burrow more than the other way around. But who knows? I agree. Having a strong scouting organization is going to be key. We fortunately have that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDotNova Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 hour ago, KingOfNewYork said: I’ve never really witnessed huge drop offs from sophomore to junior year so guys who were good should still be good/better. The guys who we don’t see in terms of leaps will probably go back to school for that very reason. The uncertainty of their draft position will cause them to return and prove themselves. I mean would you pass on Gregory Rousseau, who’s opting out, because we wouldn’t have seen him in 18 months? Wish we had some data on this. I’m thinking there are some drops in production but those are likely due to injuries. Otherwise, it’s probably rare. Maybe Raekwon Davis is an example of a guy who looked like a sure top half of the first. His production dipped every year after that. He ended up being drafted in the 2nd though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xrade Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 1 hour ago, SDotNova said: Definitely more uncertainty. It would be nice to see Ja’Marr Chase play without Joe Burrow. It’s difficult to know who made who. My gut tells me the LSU WRs and coaching helped Burrow more than the other way around. But who knows? I agree. Having a strong scouting organization is going to be key. We fortunately have that. I think football scouts are less inclined to look at production than the physical traits a player displays on the field. For instance, forget the Burrow making Chase or vice versa, look at Chase on the field. Does he get off the line against press coverage, is he crisp into and out of breaks/routes, can he high point, hands catch, create separation etc. In this case, the QB is irrelevant to a degree. If Chase has the qualities that could make him a good WR, his production is secondary. Same with Burrow or any other player. I believe players who regress do so because of changes that has nothing to do with them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetsfan4life51 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 4 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said: That’s not why. Seattle has traded first round picks in the past, they just seem to not value them. Speculation lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xrade Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 5 hours ago, KingOfNewYork said: That’s not why. Seattle has traded first round picks in the past, they just seem to not value them. They do not value them because they suck at picking in the first round, at least going back to 2011. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xrade Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 Welp, there goes the Big 10 season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GangGreen420 Posted August 11, 2020 Share Posted August 11, 2020 PAC 12 too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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