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RaidersAreOne

The Raider Depreciation Thread 📉

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17 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

I think with a 10 year contract, we are doing a long rebuild. I always thought Year 4 should be the year he has to have a winning record, which would be next season. 

4 years to go from 6-10 to 9-7? If we dont do that in our second season I'm disappointed (as I was), in three years we really ought to be doing that at least. I'm all for being patient but that's basically adding .75 wins per year for a 100 mil contract. For what he's been given (his own contract, draft picks, free will on coaches, staff etc. and FA capital) I expect playoffs year 3 and to be a serious challenger year 4 and onward. 

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1 minute ago, Darbsk said:

4 years to go from 6-10 to 9-7? If we dont do that in our second season I'm disappointed (as I was), in three years we really ought to be doing that at least. I'm all for being patient but that's basically adding .75 wins per year for a 100 mil contract. For what he's been given (his own contract, draft picks, free will on coaches, staff etc. and FA capital) I expect playoffs year 3 and to be a serious challenger year 4 and onward. 

The 7-9 record last year doesn't tell the whole story, we could have and should have won our last two games and finished at 9-7. That horrible penalty on Carr's slide cost us the Jaguars game and we essentially gave up by going for two against the Broncos in week 17. 

We should be able to go at least 9-7 this year and it's another step in the right direction. This is technically only year 2 of a major rebuild/roster overhaul because we've only had 2 offseason's with Mayock/Gruden together. If you look back to our 2018 roster when Gruden arrived we only have 4 starters and 10 players from that team on our roster this season just 2 years later. That 2018 team was also the oldest roster in the league and we have the 10th youngest roster now. 

Reggie McKenzie did the current regime no favors with his draft picks during the time he was here and we lacked young talent and depth across our roster. 

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6 minutes ago, Darbsk said:

4 years to go from 6-10 to 9-7? If we dont do that in our second season I'm disappointed (as I was), in three years we really ought to be doing that at least. I'm all for being patient but that's basically adding .75 wins per year for a 100 mil contract. For what he's been given (his own contract, draft picks, free will on coaches, staff etc. and FA capital) I expect playoffs year 3 and to be a serious challenger year 4 and onward. 

Wins don’t mean much until you are a serious playoff contender. To be honest 7-9 to 9-7 are all highly similar and same quality of team. 
 

My personal progress prediction when we hired Mayock was:

2019: 6-10 (off by 1)

2020: 7-9

2021: 10-6, playoff contender

2022-2024: 11-13 win Super Bowl Contender. 
 

Then 2025-2026 back to playoff contenders, and 2027 and beyond back to a .500 team. Super Bowl windows don’t last very long in the NFL. Unless you’re the Patriots. 

Perhaps I’m a little more patient, and I understand the frustration, but it’s just how I saw things going. I never saw 2020 as a big jump like many fans did, and I feel fans should of figured this was another .500 building year where we just aren’t there yet. 

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29 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

Wins don’t mean much until you are a serious playoff contender. To be honest 7-9 to 9-7 are all highly similar and same quality of team. 
 

My personal progress prediction when we hired Mayock was:

2019: 6-10 (off by 1)

2020: 7-9

2021: 10-6, playoff contender

2022-2024: 11-13 win Super Bowl Contender. 
 

Then 2025-2026 back to playoff contenders, and 2027 and beyond back to a .500 team. Super Bowl windows don’t last very long in the NFL. Unless you’re the Patriots. 

Perhaps I’m a little more patient, and I understand the frustration, but it’s just how I saw things going. I never saw 2020 as a big jump like many fans did, and I feel fans should of figured this was another .500 building year where we just aren’t there yet. 

Oh, I understand the reasoning and won't argue with any of that. I'd just think we ought to be progressing quicker. A very slow transformation to me kind of indicates we're not hitting on most of our FAs and draft picks which seems to be where we are at.

From 2018 to right now we've had 6 no. 1st round picks, 2 no. Second round picks and 11 no. Third and fourth round picks. That's just the picks I feel should be contributing before the real crap shoot of the lower rounds. That is 19 players plus (I think someone quoted recently) 140 million in FA spending. We started IMO with a franchise QB already in place and an All Pro centre and pass rusher and after 3 offseason our pass rush is the worst in the NFL and the primary reason we're not 3-1 or 4-0 right now.

Wins are the only real measure of success so I'd expect more success. I just think all the above plus carte blanche with coaches etc. Should yield more than 1 win improvement after 3 full seasons. Kudos for your patience, I'm clearly not so patient 😁😁

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45 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The 7-9 record last year doesn't tell the whole story, we could have and should have won our last two games and finished at 9-7. That horrible penalty on Carr's slide cost us the Jaguars game and we essentially gave up by going for two against the Broncos in week 17

I agree totally with this, we were robbed but the record will always show 7-9 and every single team can probably say the same thing. But having initially looked pretty promising last year and all the picks and free agents we've added this offseason, plus another year in both offence and defence systems if we finish with the same record doesn't that mean the current year has ultimately been a big failure?

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Just now, Darbsk said:

I agree totally with this, we were robbed but the record will always show 7-9 and every single team can probably say the same thing. But having initially looked pretty promising last year and all the picks and free agents we've added this offseason, plus another year in both offence and defence systems if we finish with the same record doesn't that mean the current year has ultimately been a big failure?

Meh, not really. We have 9 1st/2nd year players starting in a season with no OTA's, a weird training camp, and no preseason. Not to mention we've been hit hard with injuries losing guys like Williams, Ruggs, Edwards, Brown, Incognito and Arnette who were/are all starters and play a big role in what we do as a team. 

We're still one of the youngest teams in the league trying to build our foundation and identity. If you look at the start of 2018 to now we have 43 new players on our roster (81%) and 18 new starters (82%). We also lack depth across the roster because McKenzie was horrible in the draft and left the cupboard pretty bare for Gruden/Mayock. 

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1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Meh, not really. We have 9 1st/2nd year players starting in a season with no OTA's, a weird training camp, and no preseason. Not to mention we've been hit hard with injuries losing guys like Williams, Ruggs, Edwards, Brown, Incognito and Arnette who were/are all starters and play a big role in what we do as a team. 

We're still one of the youngest teams in the league trying to build our foundation and identity. If you look at the start of 2018 to now we have 43 new players on our roster (81%) and 18 new starters (82%). We also lack depth across the roster because McKenzie was horrible in the draft and left the cupboard pretty bare for Gruden/Mayock. 

You raise a lot of good points there and they are all valid, I'm not blind to the injuries and they gave to be factored in. I guess its a personal thing but I feel unless we get to 9-7 and a Wild Card type role then this year has been a failure ultimately. 

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56 minutes ago, RaidersAreOne said:

Sad...

 

We should trade our 5th to Washington to get David Sharpe back. I understand people being pissed at Brown but if we move on we better invest heavily into our OL. 

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