NCAAF Week 4 Prospect Talk

[gohogs14]

Glad to see Treylon Burks finally get a TD. Hopefully more people will know his name by the end of the year. UGA fans couldn't believe we were comparing him to Pickens.

[NYRaider]

On 9/26/2020 at 10:42 PM, ronjon1990 said:

How much does Costello improve his stock of he maintains a similar pace to today?

His passes looked pretty good. Fumbles were ugly. It's Mike Leach's system. Stats were obscene. 

My guess is he solidifies himself as a 2nd rounder that can squeak into the back end of the first if someone really wants him and the top 3 QBs are gone. 

Thoughts?

He definitely made some impressive throws and the physical talent has always been there. One of the biggest issues he had at Stanford was questionable decision making and 4 TO highlights that he still needs to improve his decision making. 

But I definitely agree with your assessment. I think it could play out pretty similar to the 2019 draft where Murray went #1, Jones went #6, Haskins went #15, and Lock went #42. With Lawerence going #1, Fields going top 5-6, Lance going top 15, and Costello being QB4 and coming off the board at the top of the second round. 

If he can clean up his decision making and take better care of the football I think he could even potentially sneak into the end of the first round like Jordan Love did. One thing that also plays into his favor is that there are a few teams that could target a QB and should be picking in the bottom half of the 1st. Teams like Tampa Bay, Indianapolis, Jacksonville (Rams pick), Chicago, Pittsburgh, New England, New Orleans, and NY Jets (Seahawks pick). 

[MSURacerDT55]

On 9/27/2020 at 1:42 AM, ronjon1990 said:

How much does Costello improve his stock of he maintains a similar pace to today?

His passes looked pretty good. Fumbles were ugly. It's Mike Leach's system. Stats were obscene. 

My guess is he solidifies himself as a 2nd rounder that can squeak into the back end of the first if someone really wants him and the top 3 QBs are gone. 

Thoughts?

The fact that he did that against an SEC defense could have solidified his status with some scouts IMO  (plus he dropped some dimes), also the fact that he has played in two totally different systems helps. He has that typical end of the first, Patriots type of feel to him. 

Also: 

I have always been suspect of Miami because of the undue hype, but they look legit this year. Nesta Silvera looks like an absolute stud inside as a 3 tech, Roche looks like a high level edge (3-4 OLB) prospect, Jared Harrison-Hunte looks like a potential top 10 pick when he is eligible and just imagine, Rousseau isn't even playing. I like King but not NFL like, he kinda reminds me of a better, faster Tajh Boyd. Clemson better watch out 

Edited September 28, 2020 by MSURacerDT55

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

The fact that he did that against an SEC defense could have solidified his status with some scouts IMO  (plus he dropped some dimes), also the fact that he has played in two totally different systems helps. He has that typical end of the first, Patriots type of feel to him. 

There's still a lot of football left to be played though, he has to show it over the course of the season to warrant an early draft selection. One of the biggest question marks surrounding his game at Stanford was his decision making and turning the ball over 4 times to start the season isn't a good look.

Consistency will be key for him this year. He had his moments at Stanford in 2018 where he looked dominant but he just couldn't sustain it. For example had like 350 passing yards 2 TD against Washington but threw 3 picks including one at the end of the game to seal their loss. Then the following two weeks passed for like 700 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT and followed that up by completing 6/17 passes for 105 yards in their bowl game. 

I'd also like to see him be a little more accurate. We've seen guys like Minshew, Falk, and Gordon complete 70% of their passes and put up gaudy numbers in Leach's system over the past couple of years. 

[Ozzy]

Do people not know that Stingley, the best CB in the nation did not play against Miss State?  Or that Fulton is on the Titans in the NFL, Grant Delpit is on the Browns in the NFL and Kary Vincent decided to sit out the season.  Also looks like Stevens has moved to linebacker or at least is playing around the line of scrimmage even more.

 

So basically the entire secondary had new starters and not proven starters and many probably did not know what they were doing since it is the first game of the season and they had less practice time in the pandemic.  The only experienced LSU DB he went up against was Todd Harris Jr and he is nothing great. 

 

So what Costello did should be taken with a grain of salt obviously.  Great game by him but look who it was against, pretty sad competition honestly.  If he does that against Alabama, maybe but no way that happens, Bama actually has returning experience on defense.  

[ronjon1990]

7 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

There's still a lot of football left to be played though, he has to show it over the course of the season to warrant an early draft selection. One of the biggest question marks surrounding his game at Stanford was his decision making and turning the ball over 4 times to start the season isn't a good look.

Consistency will be key for him this year. He had his moments at Stanford in 2018 where he looked dominant but he just couldn't sustain it. For example had like 350 passing yards 2 TD against Washington but threw 3 picks including one at the end of the game to seal their loss. Then the following two weeks passed for like 700 yards, 9 TD, 1 INT and followed that up by completing 6/17 passes for 105 yards in their bowl game. 

I'd also like to see him be a little more accurate. We've seen guys like Minshew, Falk, and Gordon complete 70% of their passes and put up gaudy numbers in Leach's system over the past couple of years. 

1. Agreed. That said, I wonder if scouts go easy on that this year? It's rare a QB tosses 60 passes in am NFL game, new system, new team- not to say he hasn't had some of those head scratch moments, more that I can see scouts brushing off early "meh" performances for better or worse. IIRC, he wasn't playing particularly well last year either before going out for the season. 

2. Yep. I remember at one point he was getting some legitimate 1st round hype. But I can't remember a great "big game" from him.

3. My biggest worry. I think we can safely say he'll put up big stats, but every Leach QB does. And it's not like Falk was playing against scrub Ds. Minshew seems to be a legit NFL QB, Falk has proven PS fodder at best to this point, and the jury is out on Gordon but not looking great. I'd say Costello has the edge over the 3 as he's had relative success in a more traditional offense before. Question is, do scouts regard the SEC D's as highly as the Pac12's (probably, yes) and do they start salivating over a QB who can play well in a traditional offense and in a more Air Raid passing scheme that's becoming popular in the NFL? 

Idk, I feel like because we saw him build up decent draft stock at Stanford before getting injured and now in a whole different Offense that Costello is like evaluating 2 very different QBs.

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

1. Agreed. That said, I wonder if scouts go easy on that this year? It's rare a QB tosses 60 passes in am NFL game, new system, new team- not to say he hasn't had some of those head scratch moments, more that I can see scouts brushing off early "meh" performances for better or worse. IIRC, he wasn't playing particularly well last year either before going out for the season. 

2. Yep. I remember at one point he was getting some legitimate 1st round hype. But I can't remember a great "big game" from him.

3. My biggest worry. I think we can safely say he'll put up big stats, but every Leach QB does. And it's not like Falk was playing against scrub Ds. Minshew seems to be a legit NFL QB, Falk has proven PS fodder at best to this point, and the jury is out on Gordon but not looking great. I'd say Costello has the edge over the 3 as he's had relative success in a more traditional offense before. Question is, do scouts regard the SEC D's as highly as the Pac12's (probably, yes) and do they start salivating over a QB who can play well in a traditional offense and in a more Air Raid passing scheme that's becoming popular in the NFL? 

Idk, I feel like because we saw him build up decent draft stock at Stanford before getting injured and now in a whole different Offense that Costello is like evaluating 2 very different QBs.

I definitely think scouts will take into consideration that teams had no spring practices, limited fall practices, and all of the other weird circumstances surrounding the college football season. But regardless he's going to have to take better care of the football going forward this season. 

He had his moments at Stanford but also had horrible performances in some of their biggest games. 

Leach's system definitely inflates QB stats and makes guys look better than they actually are. But with that being said I think it's fair to say that Costello is the most physically gifted QB that Leach has ever had in his air raid system. He has the arm strength to make every throw, above average accuracy, and is a pretty good athlete for his size. 

His situation is very comparable to Joe Burrow's entering last season. Both guys had played okay in the past in more pro-style offenses but got the chance to play in pass-happy, QB friendly systems during their final year in college. That QB4 spot is wide open right now and there's a good chance that Costello could secure it if he continues to play well.

[NYRaider]

3 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Do people not know that Stingley, the best CB in the nation did not play against Miss State?  Or that Fulton is on the Titans in the NFL, Grant Delpit is on the Browns in the NFL and Kary Vincent decided to sit out the season.  Also looks like Stevens has moved to linebacker or at least is playing around the line of scrimmage even more.

So basically the entire secondary had new starters and not proven starters and many probably did not know what they were doing since it is the first game of the season and they had less practice time in the pandemic.  The only experienced LSU DB he went up against was Todd Harris Jr and he is nothing great. 

So what Costello did should be taken with a grain of salt obviously.  Great game by him but look who it was against, pretty sad competition honestly.  If he does that against Alabama, maybe but no way that happens, Bama actually has returning experience on defense.  

That's all fine but LSU is still one of the most talented programs in the country, they've had a top 10 recruiting class year after year. 

To counter that though, how many world beating players does Mississippi State have on their roster? They were a 6 win team last year and their leading returning WR had 400 yards. Plus they have an entirely new coaching staff, a transfer QB, and had limited spring/fall practices. 

Pretty sad competition? LSU came into the season as the #5 ranked team in the country, lol. They're one of the most talented teams in college football. 

[Ozzy]

29 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That's all fine but LSU is still one of the most talented programs in the country, they've had a top 10 recruiting class year after year. 

To counter that though, how many world beating players does Mississippi State have on their roster? They were a 6 win team last year and their leading returning WR had 400 yards. Plus they have an entirely new coaching staff, a transfer QB, and had limited spring/fall practices. 

Pretty sad competition? LSU came into the season as the #5 ranked team in the country, lol. They're one of the most talented teams in college football. 

Kylin Hill is one of the top 4 RBs in the up coming draft and at worst is probably a 2nd round pick.  He did amazing things obviously as a pass catcher in that game and that alone will greatly help his stock.  Osirus Mitchell really showed out also and had a great game and will be a drafted WR most likely in the up coming draft also, he looked pretty legit.

 

Anyone that says they are one of the most talented teams in college football clearly does not realize who they lost.  I could care less about recruiting rankings, those DBs on the field for LSU in that game sucked and all the good ones they still have either were injured or decided to sit out the season because of COIVD.

 

No way that is a great LSU team anymore with all they lost and all who did not play in that game, that is the point.  No way Costello passes for all those yards if Stingley played or if Vincent was in the lineup.  Oh but they have Flott at CB?  From what little he showed last year he is nothing great and I would be surprised if he turns into this amazing CB.  

 

Oh also forgot to mention their best DT is sitting out the season because of COVID Shelvin, along with Glen Logan who will be missing a few games as well.   Think those guys not being in the lineup mattered for that defense, yeah it did.  Oh and obviously the fact of again they not only lost starting DBs in Fulton and Delpit but also starting LBs in Chaisson and Queen both 1st round picks along with Phillips another great LB and a great DE in Lawrence.   Yeah Miss State doing what they did to that exact LSU team, sorry that is not amazingly impressive, good sure but not as world breaking as some make it out to be if they look into who they actually played against.  

 

5th ranked team in the country?  Yeah preseason rankings are based on last years success not this seasons talent.  So yes Costello, I will wait till he plays an actual defense, great game no doubt but no freaking way it would have been like that if Stingley would have played.  

 

[ronjon1990]

42 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That's all fine but LSU is still one of the most talented programs in the country, they've had a top 10 recruiting class year after year. 

To counter that though, how many world beating players does Mississippi State have on their roster? They were a 6 win team last year and their leading returning WR had 400 yards. Plus they have an entirely new coaching staff, a transfer QB, and had limited spring/fall practices. 

Pretty sad competition? LSU came into the season as the #5 ranked team in the country, lol. They're one of the most talented teams in college football. 

Exactly. It's not like LSU hasn't been reloading year after year. Arden Key, Leonard Fournette, Justin Jefferson, DJ Chark, Devin White, Tre White, Deion Jones, Donte Jackson, Greedy Williams, Kevin Tolliver, Jalen Mills, Duke Riley are all guys who left in the last couple years leading up to last season. Many were backups before they started. The guys who just left, same thing. The guys there now? Same. 

They cycle talent in left and right. Their floor is a top 15-20 team. MSU was hardly, if even, a top 50 team last year. The win was an impressive one and the Bulldogs deserve credit where credit is due. Yeah LSU lost some guys, but that's literally every year. It's not like they just had 1 super class that got hot and left (like, say, Colorado's squad a couple years back or a random 9-10 win South Carolina team). LSU has been a staple in the top 5 of the SEC for ages now, particularly on D. 

[Ozzy]

3 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

Exactly. It's not like LSU hasn't been reloading year after year. Arden Key, Leonard Fournette, Justin Jefferson, DJ Chark, Devin White, Tre White, Deion Jones, Donte Jackson, Greedy Williams, Kevin Tolliver, Jalen Mills, Duke Riley are all guys who left in the last couple years leading up to last season. Many were backups before they started. The guys who just left, same thing. The guys there now? Same. 

They cycle talent in left and right. Their floor is a top 15-20 team. MSU was hardly, if even, a top 50 team last year. The win was an impressive one and the Bulldogs deserve credit where credit is due. Yeah LSU lost some guys, but that's literally every year. It's not like they just had 1 super class that got hot and left (like, say, Colorado's squad a couple years back or a random 9-10 win South Carolina team). LSU has been a staple in the top 5 of the SEC for ages now, particularly on D. 

Do you guys follow prospects that closely?  Yeah teams can reload with good talented young players, but I would be surprised if any of the DBs on LSU that played last Saturday turn into great LSU DBs at that school.  Stingley is great and amazing, those dudes that played Saturday are absolutely not, or they are just crazy out of shape.  Either way they got their *** kicked and it was because they were missing so many guys on D.  

 

Florida had multiple DBs who played well last year and now are in bigger roles or are much improved and one could see that last season.  Last season I thought Flott was a little overrated and turns out based on his play he was pretty overrated.   But no teams just reload all the time?  No not when a lot of their best players opt out of the season, not really.  

 

Daniel Wright on Alabama had more tackles in that one game than he had in any season previously.  He is obviously wildly improved and so is Josh Jobe and even Surtain.  Sure they did not go up against Miss State but will in a few weeks potentially.  That is something I would want to see how Costello plays, not against a bunch of unproven and overrated recruits on LSU.  But no Stingley not being in their means nothing?  Only missing the best CB in the country, and that means nothing?  Ok.

 

[rackcs]

On 9/27/2020 at 11:56 AM, Tetsujin said:

Maybe Pitts turns into a Gesicki type and doesn’t play inline much. I’d still take Freiermuth as a complete TE.

I find myself caring less and less about a TE's blocking ability as the years go by. If two guys are even receiving wise, yeah the blocking could be the tie breaker. But imo Pitts looks so much more versatile and explosive and just overall a better receiving. I'm not going to take a lesser weapon in the passing game just because the other guy blocks better.

11 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

The fact that he did that against an SEC defense could have solidified his status with some scouts IMO  (plus he dropped some dimes), also the fact that he has played in two totally different systems helps. He has that typical end of the first, Patriots type of feel to him. 

Also: 

I have always been suspect of Miami because of the undue hype, but they look legit this year. Nesta Silvera looks like an absolute stud inside as a 3 tech, Roche looks like a high level edge (3-4 OLB) prospect, Jared Harrison-Hunte looks like a potential top 10 pick when he is eligible and just imagine, Rousseau isn't even playing. I like King but not NFL like, he kinda reminds me of a better, faster Tajh Boyd. Clemson better watch out 

I actually haven't been super impressed by Roche. I've been liking Jaelan Phillips more on the other side.

[ronjon1990]

5 hours ago, Ozzy said:

Do you guys follow prospects that closely?  Yeah teams can reload with good talented young players, but I would be surprised if any of the DBs on LSU that played last Saturday turn into great LSU DBs at that school.  Stingley is great and amazing, those dudes that played Saturday are absolutely not, or they are just crazy out of shape.  Either way they got their *** kicked and it was because they were missing so many guys on D.  

 

Florida had multiple DBs who played well last year and now are in bigger roles or are much improved and one could see that last season.  Last season I thought Flott was a little overrated and turns out based on his play he was pretty overrated.   But no teams just reload all the time?  No not when a lot of their best players opt out of the season, not really.  

 

Daniel Wright on Alabama had more tackles in that one game than he had in any season previously.  He is obviously wildly improved and so is Josh Jobe and even Surtain.  Sure they did not go up against Miss State but will in a few weeks potentially.  That is something I would want to see how Costello plays, not against a bunch of unproven and overrated recruits on LSU.  But no Stingley not being in their means nothing?  Only missing the best CB in the country, and that means nothing?  Ok.

 

Wait, so you're saying they were overrated because they got their *** kicked? It couldn't have anything to do with a proven commodity at QB playing in a proven system under a proven coach coaching the (arguably) most talented roster he's had? 

I mean, ok, that's convenient. 

If your barometer for not being overrated is being Stingley, how do you handle watching football? He's clearly an exception when it comes to his play at the college level, not the rule. LSU not having 11 Stingleys on D doesn't mean who they trot out there aren't good. That assumption is crazy. 

Stanford lost Andrew Luck, but the 2012 amd 2013 Stanford teams played just as well. Kevin Hogan was no Andrew Luck, but he wasn't a scrub. Not every player is going to be All-World, yet you're practically discounting an entire roster of guys because one of the top players in the country is out? 

Jacoby Stevens was a 5* guy, Jabril Cox was the 5th ranked transfer in the country, Damone Clark was a 4*, Todd Harris Jr was a 4*, Micah Baskerville 4*, Anthony, Ojulari, Webb, Logan, Gaye, Moore, Thornton, White, Lee, all 4* or highly sought after transfers. The 3rd string is littered with some of the best 3 and 4 star recruits. And you genuinely expect us to believe that LSU is practically a JUCO squad? It might be a bit cliché, but LSU's 2nd team D would honestly be one of the better units in virtually every other conference. But because they're missing Byron Stingley, Tyler Shelvin, and Kary Vincent weren't out there, the entire D is just hot garbage? 

Look, those guys are great and all, but this is nuts. LSU isn't Vanderbilt. To downplay it is absurd. What would be needed? 1000 yards and 18 TDs? That wouldn't even happen to a SunBelt team. The guy went for 623 yds and 5 tds during what easily could have wound up being a 700+ yd 7+TD day. Realistically, he still likely tops 400 yds and 4 tds even if the missing players were there. Hell, cut it nearly in half, he still tosses over 300 yds and 3 TDs. 

You can nitpick the mistakes he made (accuracy, INTs, fumbles, some decisions) like myself or @NYRaider did, but discounting his performance because 3 guys weren't out there and their 4* backups were is....just silly. 

[NYRaider]

17 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

You can nitpick the mistakes he made (accuracy, INTs, fumbles, some decisions) like myself or @NYRaider did, but discounting his performance because 3 guys weren't out there and their 4* backups were is....just silly. 

LSU replaced a few pieces from last season but Mississippi State was implementing a completely new offense, under a brand new coaching staff, with a QB making his start at the school. In a year with no spring practices and limited fall practices due to the pandemic. Despite all of that Costello still went out there and made some nice plays against an LSU team that is definitely a lot more talented that Miss St. 

[Ozzy]

4 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

Wait, so you're saying they were overrated because they got their *** kicked? It couldn't have anything to do with a proven commodity at QB playing in a proven system under a proven coach coaching the (arguably) most talented roster he's had? 

I mean, ok, that's convenient. 

If your barometer for not being overrated is being Stingley, how do you handle watching football? He's clearly an exception when it comes to his play at the college level, not the rule. LSU not having 11 Stingleys on D doesn't mean who they trot out there aren't good. That assumption is crazy. 

Stanford lost Andrew Luck, but the 2012 amd 2013 Stanford teams played just as well. Kevin Hogan was no Andrew Luck, but he wasn't a scrub. Not every player is going to be All-World, yet you're practically discounting an entire roster of guys because one of the top players in the country is out? 

Jacoby Stevens was a 5* guy, Jabril Cox was the 5th ranked transfer in the country, Damone Clark was a 4*, Todd Harris Jr was a 4*, Micah Baskerville 4*, Anthony, Ojulari, Webb, Logan, Gaye, Moore, Thornton, White, Lee, all 4* or highly sought after transfers. The 3rd string is littered with some of the best 3 and 4 star recruits. And you genuinely expect us to believe that LSU is practically a JUCO squad? It might be a bit cliché, but LSU's 2nd team D would honestly be one of the better units in virtually every other conference. But because they're missing Byron Stingley, Tyler Shelvin, and Kary Vincent weren't out there, the entire D is just hot garbage? 

Look, those guys are great and all, but this is nuts. LSU isn't Vanderbilt. To downplay it is absurd. What would be needed? 1000 yards and 18 TDs? That wouldn't even happen to a SunBelt team. The guy went for 623 yds and 5 tds during what easily could have wound up being a 700+ yd 7+TD day. Realistically, he still likely tops 400 yds and 4 tds even if the missing players were there. Hell, cut it nearly in half, he still tosses over 300 yds and 3 TDs. 

You can nitpick the mistakes he made (accuracy, INTs, fumbles, some decisions) like myself or @NYRaider did, but discounting his performance because 3 guys weren't out there and their 4* backups were is....just silly. 

You clearly have a side agenda where you would love if Mike Leach and especially Costello are successful in the SEC, because then that means the Pac-12 is not as bad as some say and the SEC is not as good as some say.  Maybe that is correct but honestly so what.  Fact is Oregon and USC absolutely have a better secondary than LSU will this year, even if Stingley can come back, and possibly Washington will as well.  They have players that LSU either lost or simply do not have and they all have more proven depth, possibly on the next recruiting cycle they might bring in some more good players because again those dudes out there did not sow much at all.  

 

Again they lost 6 defensive starters off last years team, the defensive coordinator, then two more who either are injured on the DL or sitting because of COVID.  Then the best corner on the team is hurt, starting safety sitting out because COVID and yes they brought in Cox from NDSU but honestly that group is nothing great.  My count is 10 starters from last year gone on D against Miss State out of 11.  Again Todd Harris Jr the only one with any experience with that LSU team was out there.

 

I do not care about recruiting rankings and could give a rats *** about their star rating coming out of high school, clearly you and some others view that as the bible and an indication of how good they are now and in the future.  I do not.  And his name is Derek Stinglely not Byron Stingley.  And yes the fact he is not out their means they are hot garbage on defense, especially that last year they struggled big time during games even with great players out there.  So the backups cannot be better than the starters.

 

Again it is their first game, new guys and few teams could practice like they used to in this time of the pandemic, maybe they were rusty, whatever they sucked and it was the first game.  Now Costello is a 1st round pick and the best QB in the nation?  No sorry he is not.  To me there is a massive asterisk to this performance, so I take it like a grain of salt like I said.  

 

Let us recap.

 

KJ Costello threw for 623 yards and 5 TDs in his first SEC start on the road Death Valley against LSU.  Sounds amazing right?

 

Here are the asterisks.

 

*the world is in an international Pandemic

*the SEC did not start till late September

*there was no spring football because of the Pandemic and less practice time and coaching time

*LSU lost 6 starters on defense to the NFL

*LSU had two defensive starters sit out the game because of COVID concerns

*LSU had an injured defensive lineman starter

*LSU had their best returning defensive back have to sit because he was sick right before the game

*LSU had a new defensive coordinator

*the LSU stadium was barely full because of the Pandemic and few could even go to the game and provide any type of noise or environment at 25% compacity

 

Still wildly impressed with the performance? 

 

 

Edited September 29, 2020 by Ozzy