Sllim Pickens Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 19 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Or (and you aren't denying this or anything), he signs an extension for a different cap hit. It likely would still matter then because he won't take an extension for less than he is going to make. So where a 7-12 ranked TE might sign for 8-10M, he will want more as he will be making 10.5M in that 5th year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 41 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: It likely would still matter then because he won't take an extension for less than he is going to make. So where a 7-12 ranked TE might sign for 8-10M, he will want more as he will be making 10.5M in that 5th year. I don't think that's entirely true. He could opt for a 4 year deal worth $7.3M per year, which puts him at #10 among TE contracts. It's less than $10 for one year, but a better contract overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AkronsWitness Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 (edited) Hey all, Browns fan here. As the world knows Baker may not be the starting QB after this season and on our board we were floating around the idea of veteran replacements next season considering our roster is ready to win right now and no longer rebuilding--just need a plug+play QB to steer the ship. I brought up Stafford in a trade considering he seems for the last 5 years just to be wallowing around on a mediocre Lions team that might be trending towards a full scale rebuild and a differennt HC next season. What are your guys opinions about moving Stafford and what would the price be? I know ownership loves him so it might take a lot to get him away but given the current state of the team it doesnt make a whole lot of sense to run him into the ground for the next few years. If the Browns came to the Lions this offseason and offered a 1st rounder + Njoku what do you sense the Lions reaction would be? Whats the price tag on Stafford and whats the likelinhood he gets moved if the offer is right so the Lions can start their rebuild? Edited October 21, 2020 by AkronsWitness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 22 hours ago, LionArkie said: Muhlbach, lol. I agree with your list, but never thought of Muhlbach. He’s had a long, effective career. He can stay until he’s ready to retire.🤠 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 22 hours ago, LionArkie said: I do get where you are coming from, but I'm not sure I agree on only mattering on draft day. Doesn't draft position also influence salary? If so, it's a multi-year issue. Furthermore, I think everyone compares production to draft position on a rookie contract. I was meaning more from a fan analysis perspective. You’re right about financial implications but those can be overcome through structure, extensions etc. I wasn’t a fan of the pick as I would never use a 1st round pick on a TE which seems to be a habit of the org, regardless if who is in charge 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said: It likely would still matter then because he won't take an extension for less than he is going to make. So where a 7-12 ranked TE might sign for 8-10M, he will want more as he will be making 10.5M in that 5th year. His free market value would be the largest influence of what he signs for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, AkronsWitness said: Hey all, Browns fan here. As the world knows Baker may not be the starting QB after this season and on our board we were floating around the idea of veteran replacements next season considering our roster is ready to win right now and no longer rebuilding--just need a plug+play QB to steer the ship. I brought up Stafford in a trade considering he seems for the last 5 years just to be wallowing around on a mediocre Lions team that might be trending towards a full scale rebuild and a differennt HC next season. What are your guys opinions about moving Stafford and what would the price be? I know ownership loves him so it might take a lot to get him away but given the current state of the team it doesnt make a whole lot of sense to run him into the ground for the next few years. If the Browns came to the Lions this offseason and offered a 1st rounder + Njoku what do you sense the Lions reaction would be? Whats the price tag on Stafford and whats the likelinhood he gets moved if the offer is right so the Lions can start their rebuild? I think Njoku is a non starter. The Lions don’t need a TE. If the Lions were to trade Stafford it would be a clear sign of a rebuild so draft picks would likely be the preferred currency. Given Cleveland is in win now mode and the picks are mid to late round it would likely increase the required picks. As for specifics who knows. It’s hard to determine what the intentions of the franchise are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AkronsWitness Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said: I think Njoku is a non starter. The Lions don’t need a TE. If the Lions were to trade Stafford it would be a clear sign of a rebuild so draft picks would likely be the preferred currency. Given Cleveland is in win now mode and the picks are mid to late round it would likely increase the required picks. As for specifics who knows. It’s hard to determine what the intentions of the franchise are. Yeah I was originally thinking a 1st+3rd could get it done but the Lions have been very up in the air on what direction they are going since Megatron retired. Maybe it just takes somebody to send them a offer and see what they say. I spoke with a buddy who is a Lions fan and he also was saying how most Lions fans want them to trade Stafford because how the team basically has failed him in recent years and want him to go somewhere where he can win. If he still has 5-6 years left in the tank I wouldnt even say two 1sts is out of the question but then again Browns fans are super protective of their draft picks. Edited October 21, 2020 by AkronsWitness Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said: His free market value would be the largest influence of what he signs for. True but if he is worth 5M on the free market, why would he sign when he would make 10.5M? If the free market says he is worth 14M, he would likely rather sign a long term deal than play a 5th year on a 10M contract. It still all comes down to what his 5th year option is, which is based on draft status. Last year Jack Conklin's (8th pick in 2016) 5th year option was nearly 13M. that means in three years it likely will be closer to 14/15M to keep him around for a 5th year. So the options are he will either sign for less here, play on the option year at 14M, or sign elsewhere for his market value. Rarely do players who get their fifth year option declined stay with the team that drafted them. Rarely do those contracts get re-worked prior to the 5th year being exercised. So while the free market will dictate his value, he would likely have to play at a Kittle level the next two years to make it remotely worth giving him 14M which would currently put him just behind Kelce and Kittle and 4M higher than the third highest paid TE. Its why you don't draft a TE that high, because the inherent nature of the contract system makes it unlikely to retain them into their second contracts because TEs just dont make that much money. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LionArkie Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 38 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said: I was meaning more from a fan analysis perspective. You’re right about financial implications but those can be overcome through structure, extensions etc. I wasn’t a fan of the pick as I would never use a 1st round pick on a TE which seems to be a habit of the org, regardless if who is in charge I think most will agree on a 1st round TE not being picked. Those who don't will probably agree definitely not in the top 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 37 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: True but if he is worth 5M on the free market, why would he sign when he would make 10.5M? You made other very good points in this post, so me omitting them from this quote isn't disregarding them. I just wanted to make a comment about this: him signing a 4 year deal for less than $10M per year to remain with a QB and team that he likes might be a better situation - and more money overall - than insisting on playing for that last year at $10M and signing a potentially lesser contract with another team in FA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 36 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: True but if he is worth 5M on the free market, why would he sign when he would make 10.5M? If the free market says he is worth 14M, he would likely rather sign a long term deal than play a 5th year on a 10M contract. It still all comes down to what his 5th year option is, which is based on draft status. Last year Jack Conklin's (8th pick in 2016) 5th year option was nearly 13M. that means in three years it likely will be closer to 14/15M to keep him around for a 5th year. So the options are he will either sign for less here, play on the option year at 14M, or sign elsewhere for his market value. Rarely do players who get their fifth year option declined stay with the team that drafted them. Rarely do those contracts get re-worked prior to the 5th year being exercised. So while the free market will dictate his value, he would likely have to play at a Kittle level the next two years to make it remotely worth giving him 14M which would currently put him just behind Kelce and Kittle and 4M higher than the third highest paid TE. Its why you don't draft a TE that high, because the inherent nature of the contract system makes it unlikely to retain them into their second contracts because TEs just dont make that much money. So, like any other player not worth the money you cut him loose. He was drafted with expectations from management that he was worth his draft slot. They have the same expectation with all high round picks where slotting has a large impact on future $$$$. So the same options exist for every player and management has to evaluate choices. They excersize the option and negotiate an extension lowering the AAV to a reasonable dollar amount and if he doesn’t extend you cut him. I believe options are only guaranteed for injury. Im not going to look up the details but if I recall correctly (it happens less with each passing year🤠) Quinn picked up Ebrons 5th year @ over 8 million. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, LionArkie said: I think most will agree on a 1st round TE not being picked. Those who don't will probably agree definitely not in the top 10. This pains me. I try to see the positive in a situation, which is why I understood the Hockenson pick. I just... man. To be a good team, you MUST hit on your 1st and 2nd round picks. Period. Not only have we often failed to hit on those 2nd round picks, a *hit* on a 1st round TE is a lesser hit than a hit at many other positions, especially in the top 10. I want Hock to succeed, and I'll never hold his draft position against him, but we need to get out of the "early 1st round TE" business. That business is not booming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 minute ago, diehardlionfan said: Im not going to look up the details but if I recall correctly (it happens less with each passing year🤠) Quinn picked up Ebrons 5th year @ over 8 million. He did, but cut him and his $8.25M contract before the start of FA of that year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diehardlionfan Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: You made other very good points in this post, so me omitting them from this quote isn't disregarding them. I just wanted to make a comment about this: him signing a 4 year deal for less than $10M per year to remain with a QB and team that he likes might be a better situation - and more money overall - than insisting on playing for that last year at $10M and signing a potentially lesser contract with another team in FA. They can pick up the option, try to negotiate an extension at market value and if he doesn’t sign they can cut him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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