TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 17 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: Closing out a game with a lead is on the defense. So its both ways. Our defenses have allowed the other teams back in with bad coaching choices and not putting players in a spot to succeed. I get that its somewhat different with Stafford as he helps a little on offense to keep the ball (or should but doesnt seem to always be the case) and therefore its ok to use that defensive data in analyzing Patricia. The majority of the leads lost, have come with us trying t sit back and let them pick us apart with no pressure. Its a form of the prevent defense that only prevents you from winning, and that has little to do with Stafford. I disagree. I believe that closing out games is on the offense and defense equally. The great teams chew clock and shorten the game on offense, limiting the other team's chances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said: Closing out a game with a lead is on the defense. So its both ways. Our defenses have allowed the other teams back in with bad coaching choices and not putting players in a spot to succeed. I get that its somewhat different with Stafford as he helps a little on offense to keep the ball (or should but doesnt seem to always be the case) and therefore its ok to use that defensive data in analyzing Patricia. The majority of the leads lost, have come with us trying t sit back and let them pick us apart with no pressure. Its a form of the prevent defense that only prevents you from winning, and that has little to do with Stafford. There is a lot of truth to this. However, with Stafford at the helm, more often than not we have the firepower to build on that lead or battle back if that lead is lost with a chance to win the game. Having a QB of Stafford's stature does bring a sense of confidence to the whole team that they can win the game regardless of what happens. Playing "not to lose" is a surefire way to lose. There is a lot more to the situation but if you look at the disaster happening in Dallas, we can see what can happen when a team loses their franchise QB. The Cowboys are filled with talent and yet are falling apart. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: I disagree. I believe that closing out games is on the offense and defense equally. The great teams chew clock and shorten the game on offense, limiting the other team's chances. We can't hold a lead with Stafford (most blown leads have been with him), can't hold it without Stafford (don't often have a lead to hold), which then leads you to believe its the coaching gameplan, play calling, or line play if you are expecting to chew clock. So either they havent coached Stafford to excel at chewing clock and how to check out of a bad play call, they dont give him the ability to check out of a bad play call, or the coaches just dont know what they are doing and enjoy running into a wall 3 times in a row and punting. The defense has been bad in all of these games whether Stafford plays or not. Allowing 1 min TDs on big plays when there isnt much time left, is on the D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 54 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: We can't hold a lead with Stafford (most blown leads have been with him), can't hold it without Stafford (don't often have a lead to hold), which then leads you to believe its the coaching gameplan, play calling, or line play if you are expecting to chew clock. So either they havent coached Stafford to excel at chewing clock and how to check out of a bad play call, they dont give him the ability to check out of a bad play call, or the coaches just dont know what they are doing and enjoy running into a wall 3 times in a row and punting. The defense has been bad in all of these games whether Stafford plays or not. Allowing 1 min TDs on big plays when there isnt much time left, is on the D. Well, the two components of holding a lead are an efficient running game and clutch passing. We've lacked the running game for a long time, which makes the passing more predictable, hence holding the lead far more difficult. Do you happen to have the stats on 4th quarter leads blown by Stafford under Patricia? I looked around briefly and didn't find them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Karnage84 said: There is a lot of truth to this. However, with Stafford at the helm, more often than not we have the firepower to build on that lead or battle back if that lead is lost with a chance to win the game. Having a QB of Stafford's stature does bring a sense of confidence to the whole team that they can win the game regardless of what happens. Playing "not to lose" is a surefire way to lose. There is a lot more to the situation but if you look at the disaster happening in Dallas, we can see what can happen when a team loses their franchise QB. The Cowboys are filled with talent and yet are falling apart. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 16 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Sure, collapses have happened. I'm not denying that. I am suggesting that collapses that happened without Stafford are close to irrelevant as to how this team can/should close out games with him. It seems like we can just agree to disagree. The same collapses happen with and without Stafford. Even if you pick to ignore the context the issue still exists with Stafford playing. The constant is Quintricia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 26 minutes ago, Nnivolcm said: Matthew Stafford. Tied with Matt Ryan for second most 4th Quarter Comebacks in NFL history... 4 away from Peyton Manning (34). But yeah... having Matthew Stafford at QB doesn't make a difference. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Karnage84 said: Matthew Stafford. Tied with Matt Ryan for second most 4th Quarter Comebacks in NFL history... 4 away from Peyton Manning (34). But yeah... having Matthew Stafford at QB doesn't make a difference. As you're well aware the vast majority of those didn't come with Patricia as HC. Caldwell was much better at putting Stafford (and others) in positions to win close games instead of finding ways to lose them. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Well, the two components of holding a lead are an efficient running game and clutch passing. We've lacked the running game for a long time, which makes the passing more predictable, hence holding the lead far more difficult. Do you happen to have the stats on 4th quarter leads blown by Stafford under Patricia? I looked around briefly and didn't find them. https://www.espn.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/36852/looking-at-the-detroit-lions-troubling-fourth-quarter-trend-under-matt-patricia Quote Patricia’s teams have led in the fourth quarter in 20 of the 33 games he’s coached with the Lions......In 11 of those games, the Lions have lost the lead. Ten of them -- all except the season-opening tie last year against Arizona -- became losses 2019 without Stafford: Week 16 - Green Bay Week 15 - Denver Week 13 - Bears Week 12 - Redskins That leaves 7 games under Patricia with Matt Stafford that they were unable to hold a fourth quarter lead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, Nnivolcm said: As you're well aware the vast majority of those didn't come with Patricia as HC. Caldwell was much better at putting Stafford (and others) in positions to win close games instead of finding ways to lose them. Are we forgetting that context matters? Matthew Stafford is still the QB of the team. The bulk of the games we lost last year were without Stafford at QB. We don't know what the record would have been if he was. There was an easier stretch where Stafford would absolutely have been a difference maker. Stafford doesn't play on defense and isn't going to be the solution to all of the teams issues, but he would Stafford has a 12-17-1 record with Patricia (0.40) vs Patricia's overall record 12-25-1 (0.329) and 0.00 without Stafford. Stafford has an overall career record of 0.465. Lions average points per game during Stafford's stretch in 2019 was 25.5. Out of the 8 games he missed, it is a reasonable assumption that he would win at least 0.40 of those games (+3). Based on his career winning % (0.465) looking at nearly 0.500 (+4). There were 5 out of the 8 games where the Lions would have won those games had they scored that 25.5 ppg average. Matthew Stafford alone would have been the difference of a 6-10 to 8-8 season instead of 3-13. That's going with general trends and not anything above those averages. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 Just now, Karnage84 said: Are we forgetting that context matters? Matthew Stafford is still the QB of the team. The bulk of the games we lost last year were without Stafford at QB. We don't know what the record would have been if he was. There was an easier stretch where Stafford would absolutely have been a difference maker. Stafford doesn't play on defense and isn't going to be the solution to all of the teams issues, but he would Stafford has a 12-17-1 record with Patricia (0.40) vs Patricia's overall record 12-25-1 (0.329) and 0.00 without Stafford. Stafford has an overall career record of 0.465. Lions average points per game during Stafford's stretch in 2019 was 25.5. Out of the 8 games he missed, it is a reasonable assumption that he would win at least 0.40 of those games (+3). Based on his career winning % (0.465) looking at nearly 0.500 (+4). There were 5 out of the 8 games where the Lions would have won those games had they scored that 25.5 ppg average. Matthew Stafford alone would have been the difference of a 6-10 to 8-8 season instead of 3-13. That's going with general trends and not anything above those averages. You can't create context by making up a fictional past. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sllim Pickens Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 3 minutes ago, Karnage84 said: Are we forgetting that context matters? Matthew Stafford is still the QB of the team. The bulk of the games we lost last year were without Stafford at QB. We don't know what the record would have been if he was. There was an easier stretch where Stafford would absolutely have been a difference maker. Stafford doesn't play on defense and isn't going to be the solution to all of the teams issues, but he would Stafford has a 12-17-1 record with Patricia (0.40) vs Patricia's overall record 12-25-1 (0.329) and 0.00 without Stafford. Stafford has an overall career record of 0.465. Lions average points per game during Stafford's stretch in 2019 was 25.5. Out of the 8 games he missed, it is a reasonable assumption that he would win at least 0.40 of those games (+3). Based on his career winning % (0.465) looking at nearly 0.500 (+4). There were 5 out of the 8 games where the Lions would have won those games had they scored that 25.5 ppg average. Matthew Stafford alone would have been the difference of a 6-10 to 8-8 season instead of 3-13. That's going with general trends and not anything above those averages. Last year we blew 3 fourth quarter leads with Stafford, including an 18 point lead and without him blew 4. So while yes he may have made a difference, the numbers still show he isnt always the answer when looking at why we blew fourth quarter leads. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Nnivolcm said: You can't create context by making up a fictional past. So we can only do this when it's a fictional future under Jim Caldwell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 minute ago, Karnage84 said: So we can only do this when it's a fictional future under Jim Caldwell. When has anyone done that and called it context? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 15 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said: https://www.espn.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/36852/looking-at-the-detroit-lions-troubling-fourth-quarter-trend-under-matt-patricia 2019 without Stafford: Week 16 - Green Bay Week 15 - Denver Week 13 - Bears Week 12 - Redskins That leaves 7 games under Patricia with Matt Stafford that they were unable to hold a fourth quarter lead. Good stats. Thanks for linking. Once I have a second today (we just moved, so things are crazy), I'll take a look at how many 4th quarter leads we've held with Patricia and Stafford. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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