BDL 2020 Divisional Round - #8 New Orleans Jazz @ #1 Berlin Blitzkrieg

[rackcs]

BDL 2020 Divisional Round

Match: #8 New Orleans Jazz @ #1 Berlin Blitzkrieg

Away Owner: @WFLukic

Home Owner: @Ragnarok

Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both.

 

Edited December 13, 2020 by rackcs

[rackcs]

New Orleans Jazz

Offense:
QB: Josh Allen
RB: Melvin Gordon
Slot WR: Michael Thomas
WR1: DeAndre Hopkins
WR2: DeVante Parker
Flex/OW: Deebo Samuel
LT: Taylor Decker
LG: Joel Bitonio
😄 Austin Blythe
RG: Austin Corbett
RT: Jawaan Taylor
 
RB2: Devin Singletary
RB3: Nyheim Hines
RB4: Zack Moss
TE1: Tyler Higbee
TE2/WR5: Mike Gesicki
WR6: Alshon Jeffery
OL6: Justin Pugh
OL7: Chuks Okorafor

Defense:
DE: Justin Houston
DT: Jeffery Simmons
DT: Shelby Harris
DE: Christian Wilkins
LB: Alexander Johnson
LB: Foye Oluokun
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: James Bradberry
CB: JC Jackson
S: Micah Hyde
S: Kevin Byard

DE3: Olivier Vernon
DE4: Chase Winovich
DE5: Benson Mayowa
DT3: Dre’Mont Jones
DT4: Christian Covington
LB3/S3: Terrell Edmunds
DB6: Kareem Jackson
DB7: Cameron Dantzler

Berlin Blitzkrieg

QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Aaron Jones
WR - Robert Woods
WR - Christian Kirk
WR - Brandon Aiyuk
TE - Hunter Henry
LT - Kolton Miller
LG - Solomon Kindley
C - Trey Hopkins
RG - Alex Cappa
RT - Tristan Wirfs

RB - Justin Jackson
RB - Anthony McFarland
WR - MVS
WR - Marquise Brown
TE - Jordan Akins
TE - Irv Smith
OL - Taylor Moton
OL - Dan Feeney

DE - Za’Darius Smith
DT - Quinnen Williams
DT - Sheldon Rankins
DE - Trey Hendrickson
LB - Tremaine Edmunds
RCB - Rock Ya-Sin
LCB - Kendall Fuller
NB - Byron Murphy
NB - Lamarcus Joyner
S - Antoine Winfield Jr
S - Juan Thornhill

DE - Demarcus Lawrence
DL - Zach Sieler
DT - Kingsley Keke
DT - Derrick Brown
LB - Rashaan Evans
LB - Kyzir White
CB - Jeff Gladney
S - Tarvarius Moore

[rackcs]

New Orleans Jazz

After battling adversity all season through a multitude of injuries, we come into this road matchup battle hardened and ready to take down a Berlin team we’ve faced once this season, albeit severely undermanned. With nothing to lose as the 8 seed and plenty of experience getting through the first round of the playoffs, we feel confident we can give a relatively inexperienced Berlin squad a battle and squeak out a win on the road.

Also quick shoutout to Rags for clinching the #1 seed two years in a row – absolutely no fluke and a super well-built team from top to bottom. Best of luck.

Offense (55% Pass vs. 45% Run):

40% of snaps - 1RB-3WR – 1Flex (Samuel or Gesicki)
20% of snaps – 1RB – 3WR – 1TE
20% of snaps – 2RB – 2TE – 1WR
20% of snaps – OW – 1TE – 3WR (no huddle)

We’ve made some changes across the offensive line, going with a heavier run focus this week given the success Blythe, Corbett and Taylor have had this season as run blockers. Melvin Gordon’s better run of form in recent weeks will see him handle the majority of the work as our lead back, while Samuel will chip in with a number of carries/shovels/sweeps and Allen will get a number of designed runs too.

Our receiver group should give us the privilege of facing 6 man boxes often, and with two or three running threats on any given play we should be able to churn out consistent yardage to the point where Berlin will have to commit extra resources to the run. Once they do this, it’ll be time for Allen to strike with play-action.

Running Game:

The way in which we run will differ based on the formations we run, however our more ‘generic’ runs will be using Gordon primarily as a one-cut runner where he thrives, running behind both sides of the offensive line. Singletary will be used as a change of pace, with more of an outside focus and the hope to get him in one on situations where he can use his cutting ability in space.  

Otherwise as mentioned elsewhere, there’ll be a few designed runs for Allen based on the formation as well as some carries for Samuel either on sweeps, or even just as a runner lined up in the backfield.

Passing Game:

As will always be the case, Allen’s first options will be either hitting Thomas or Hopkins. Hopkins will run a full route tree, with an emphasis on getting him the ball on out routes and contested catches downfield where he specialises. Similarly, Thomas will run his usual crossing and slant routes, drawing a number of targets.

Should either of them only draw single coverage, especially if it isn’t Kendall Fuller, there’ll be an emphasis for Allen to get them the ball as no Berlin corner can come close to hanging with them except Fuller.

Parker will also run a variety of routes, however the focus will be on him going deeper and serving a field stretcher, with the intention to throw the ball up to him in single coverage and let him come down with it.

The flex position will be filled by Samuel and Gesicki. Samuel will be our YAC guy, motioning all over the field and getting the ball on slants, quick tosses, pitches and sweeps while Gesicki will operate split out wide in the hope of either drawing a CB in coverage, in which case he can out muscle them or one of the LBs to weaken them.

Play-Action & Option:

With 4 members of our offensive line being used to heavy play-action, run-first teams, we feel comfortable getting them into these sets and letting Allen, one of the league’s top out of pocket passers get to work. We’ll do so out of the pistol or gun with conventional run-pass option plays, as well as under center with Allen faking the hand-off.

We’re also gonna have Allen catch a pass from Samuel on an option play where Gordon receives the hand-off from Allen, Samuel then sweeps around and receives the toss while Allen runs in the same direction as Samuel. This will be a touchdown no doubt.

No Huddle Line-up:

We’ll go no huddle on a number of occasions with a Hopkins-Thomas-Parker-Gesicki-Samuel set. These will be either 5 wide, or 4 wide with Samuel in the backfield. Generally each receiver will run the following route in the no-huddle:

Hopkins – Out/Corner
Thomas – Hitch (or out route at end of game situation)  vs. Man or Slant vs. Off-man
Parker – Go route
Gesicki – Go route (opposite side of field to Parker) in 5 WR set, Slant in 4 WR
Samuel – 5 WR – Slant/Rub route for Hopkins or Thomas

In 5 WR we’ll cycle through the following:
1.     QB Draw – Allen receives the snap, feigns pass and immediately tucks and runs behind Decker & Bitonio with Corbett pulling across
2.     Toss to Hopkins or Thomas (in hurry up situations)
3.     Deep throw to Gesicki/Parker

In 4 WR:
1.     QB RPO – Allen receives the snap and runs a standard RPO
2.     Jet Sweep – Deebo will line-up wide but motion to the backfield and Allen will dump it to him
3.     If Thomas is in single coverage quick toss to him

Roman Inspired 2TE-2RB Sets:

Another wrinkle we’re going to weave in is about 15 or so snaps in a Greg Roman inspired 2TE-2RB set in which Hopkins will be the remaining WR on the field, Higbee and Gesicki will line-up at TE and Samuel + Gordon/Singletary in the backfield. Everything will be on the table in these situations, including the TEs peeling off for screens, counters where one of the backs receives the ball and creates another option situation with the other back and standard runs up the middle.

Defense:

Defensive Line:

We’re going to go rotation heavy on the DL as usual, with the plan for no defensive lineman to play any more than 75-80% of the snaps and each of them featuring heavily, with Wilkins being more run-focused and Winovich more exclusively a pass-rusher. On obvious passing downs we’ll kick Vernon, Harris and Jones inside while Houston, Winovich and Mayowa will move all over the formation and rush from the outside. 

Cover 1 Man:

In terms of coverage, we’re going to go with our standard Cover 1 man for the majority of the time with the following assignments:

Gilmore – Woods
Bradberry – Aiyuk
Jackson – Brown or Kirk
Oluokun – Henry
Hyde – Running Back

Byard will be the deep safety in these situations. In 2 TE situations, Edmunds will come in while in 4 WR sets Kareem Jackson will come in to the slot and Dantzler on the outside in 5 WR sets.

Attack Berlin’s Interior:

While Wirfs is the only member of the Berlin offensive line who you can comfortably say is above average and a deserving BDL starter, it’s clear that there’s a weakness in the middle given Linsley’s absence. So we plan to take advantage of this interior offensive line and in particular it’s inexperience across the line as it contains 2 rookies and 2 third year players with Trey Hopkins being it’s veteran.

Because of this weakness in the middle, we predict that Berlin will want to run the ball to the outside and as a counter, we’re going to have Harris and Wilkins line-up at LDE and help set the edge and turn things inside should Berlin try to take it right.

Against the pass, our plan is to incorporate a number of different blitzes and stunts to confuse the offensive line and pressure Rodgers. Obviously Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the game, both generally and against pressure, but he also does have a propensity to hold the ball for too long. If we can grab a few sacks along with potentially a turnover, we’ll see that as a big win in terms of stopping the Berlin offense – especially if we can get it to become 1 dimensional and force Rodgers to throw to our corners where we have an advantage over Berlin’s receivers.

3 Safety Defense (3-2-6):

We’re additionally going to run a zone oriented 3 safety defense on occasion with one of the DL being substituted out for Kareem Jackson or Terrell Edmunds. This will be a unique look for us which Berlin will have no footage on, and will be used primarily on passing downs.

The 3 DL will generally be Simmons, Harris and Jones while at LB, Houston/Winovich will rush from either side and Johnson will serve as MLB. Hyde and Jackson/Edmunds will stand near the LOS and on any play, there’s a possibility anywhere between none or all of Johnson + the safeties (excluding Byard) blitz, with those who don’t simply dropping back.

On top of this, we’ll throw in some corner blitzes in a more a cover 6 ish look, with Jackson or Hyde taking the blitzing corners coverage zone.

Berlin Blitzkrieg

Motivation

For the second year in a row we are the #1 seed.  However, we know how little that actually means in the playoffs.  We don’t want the same disappointing ending this year.

Offense

Overview - Run the ball, use play action, let our WRs work open against a talented secondary.

Run Game - We are going to use our jet sweep motion on a fair number of plays.  We will hand off to the WR just enough to force NOLA to respect that motion and force their LBers to get to the sideline.  We will continue to run our bread-and-butter stretch play off of this motion.  We are going to run it to both sides to stress the defense horizontally and let Jones push it wide or look for cut-back lanes.  We are also going to run more traps this week, especially if NOLA plays Shelby Harris at DE again.  We will crash our OL down, let Houston get up the field, and pull Cappa to make a nice, big running lane for Jones as Shelby won’t be able to help out from the backside.  Houston is their only real edge-rushing threat, so we expect him to be coming up field in a hurry.  Our play-action rollouts will work off both the stretch and trap motion.  With no real edge threat besides Houston, we think Rodgers will have a lot of success getting outside the pocket and moving around.  Also, there is no defensive line player on their bench that worries us at all, so we want to make sure those four starters are running all game.

Hurry Up - Regardless of the formation, at times we will have Rodgers run a hurry up.  We will do this specifically when Harris is at DE as we don’t think he can provide any outside pass rush and we will want to force NOLA to keep their starting four on the field to exhaust them and expose their lack of DL depth.  Look for more shotgun here with Jones lined up next to Rodgers.  Rodgers will have full autonomy to call the plays, move guys around, and dictate the pace.  This is where we will use Rodgers hard count.  Once we get NOLA in a quick rhythm, Rodgers will try to lure them offsides for a free deep shot.  We will still run out of this formation, but look for a few more draws.

3 WR - 55% - As per usual, we will rotate Kirk, Woods, and Aiyuk in and out of the slot throughout the game.  The slot receiver will regularly come in a jet sweep motion and may or may not take a hand off or push pass if we are in shotgun.  We are going to have our WRs and Henry run rubs, slants, outs, and crossers as those are man coverage beaters and they will allow Rodgers to find gaps in any zone coverage we may see.  NOLA loves their Cover 1 Man, so we will typically line up our WRs a little closer to the formation so they can break inside or out.  We also want to attack down the sidelines, specifically the back shoulder throws that Rodgers loves, as that will limit how much help a single high safety can give.  With the secondary players of NOLA, Rodgers might have to hold the ball a little longer so guys can get open, but Simmons has one sack since week 6 and Wilkins has one sack total, so we think he will have that time.

Off the jet sweep motion, we will run our stretch run play as we think we have an advantage on the edges.  We believe that our jet sweep motion going one way and stretch run going back the other way will stress their defense horizontally.  We are going to use a few quick flares to the RB to keep those big boys running.

Henry is going to be split out around half the time as we really want to see how NOLA tries to defend him.  If he gets a LBer in man coverage, look for a quick breaking slant or out-route(which Rodgers loves) as we are going to see if either of their linebackers can cover Henry 1-on-1.  After a couple of those, we will have Henry fake a quick break then run a corner route so Rodgers can hit him down the sideline.

We will use naked boots from here as well, allowing Rodgers to get outside the pocket, play backyard football, and do what he does best.

We will also take some deep shots, usually off double moves following this playaction, especially attacking down the sidelines so Byard can’t get over and help out.

4 WR - 20% - Hollywood or MVS comes in for Henry as we want to force NOLA to put Dantzler on the field now that Bouye is out as Dantzler is very susceptible to double moves and quick breaking routes.  We will continue to incorporate pre-snap motion against a spread out defense to allow for a free release.  We want to attack the secondary with every type of route in a backyard football style but we will have a couple WRs running underneath routes for outlets.

We will use trips to one side with Aiyuk, Woods, and Kirk bunched up about half the time.  We will use them for screens as well as have them release into standard pass routes.  There will be crossing/rubbing action out of trips to allow for free releases and to hopefully force a DB to go around the rub action.

Hollywood/MVS will be on the other side and if there’s no safety over the top, we will take shots to them down the field.

We will run Jones out of this formation as well as a spread out defense will give us a bit more room to let Jones work.  Look for a couple screens as well if their DL tries to over pursue the pass game.

5 WR - 15% - Hollywood and MVS will be outside with Aiyuk, Woods, and Kirk inside.  We will move the inside 3 guys across the formation or even into the backfield to force the defense to show their hand.  The inside 3 guys will underneath routes while the two outside guys push down the field along the sidelines.  Rodgers will be in shotgun and have free rein to run around and play backyard football.  Look for this more later in the game once their starting DL is exhausted so Rodgers has even more time.

2 TE - 10% - Henry and Irv play at TE with Woods and Aiyuk outside.  Look for this more in goalline/short yardage situations.  We will frequently stack the WRs on one side to allow for a free release with Henry on the other side.  Irv will move around the formation to tip coverages and give us a blocking advantage to one side.  We will use playaction out of this formation targeting their LBs in coverage.

Defense

Overview - Give safety help over the top, challenge the WRs at the LOS and on their breaks, and give our pass rush time to get to Allen.

Defensive Line - Pressure is imperative in this matchup.  Hendrickson and Z are in the top 4 this year in sacks and they get the start on the edges.  Z will play across from Jonah’s replacement to take advantage of that match up and because Allen likes to escape to the offensive right when there is pressure, so we want to take that away.  Quinnen and Sheldon start inside to push the pocket from the interior.  Derrick(more early downs) and DLaw will rotate in on a semi regular basis to rest those starting four, but all of our defensive linemen are playing at a very solid level right now, so we want to keep our front four fresh.  On obvious passing downs, we will bring slide Hendrickson inside for Rankins and bring in DLaw.

Safeties - Thornhill and Winfield are almost always going to start in a Cover-2 shell around 12 yards off the LOS.  With DJ Moore out, none of the NOLA weapons really scare us as deep threats despite Allen’s big arm.  We also think our pass rush will keep Allen from having too much time in the pocket.  But all their WRs are exceptional at short and mid-range routes, so we want our safeties a little closer than a normal Cover-2 so they can provide help over the top while being able to break on the ball on those shallower routes.

While they will basically always start out sitting in a deep shell, there will be times(Cover 3 typically) where they rotate after the snap with Thornhill sitting deep middle and Winfield in a middle zone to help against crossers and slants.

4 WR - We are going to play sides this week so as not to tip off coverages with Joyner and Byron in the slot.  Our corners are going to play press coverage most all game.  We want to not give the WRs of NOLA an easy release to allow our pass rush more time to get home.  We are going to switch off between Cover 2 man and zone coverage with our safeties sitting in that two deep shell.  This will allow our corners to be aggressive at the line and break on routes without worrying as much about getting beat deep or double moves.  We will use zone coverage pretty commonly to so defenders can keep an eye on Allen in the pocket.

TRIPS - If they go with trips to a side, Rock takes the outside WR, Byron takes middle, and Joyner takes the inside WR as they release.  We think those three can blow up any WR screens or pick routes.  In this case, Winfield would sit in a middle zone and Thornhill would sit deep shaded to the trips side.  Kendall would have man coverage on the far side.

Tremaine will be watching the RB in all 4 WRs sets when we go man, and in zone, he will key the run game before dropping back into his middle zone.

Nickel - Joyner comes out for Rashaan.  Rashaan takes over spying the RB and Tremaine would have the TE in man.

While we will continue to play a lot of Cover 2 man and zone with the safeties up, we are going to have our safeties rotate a bit more as we will play a little more Cover-3 here than with 4 WRs.  We want to limit passes between the hashes here.  This will also allow for spying Allen.

Base - Assuming Hopkins and Thomas are in, we are going to have our safeties start up even closer to the LOS(10 yards) and back off after the snap.  This will have them a little closer to help against the run and underneath routes while having time to back off on longer-developing plays.

2 TE - DLaw comes in for Rock and plays DE while Z stands up.  We will move Z around the formation so he can come on blitzes(usually from the offensive rights as Allen almost always tries to escape the pocket from that direction) to but he will also very occasionally drop back into a middle zone.  Tremaine and Rashaan will have the TEs in man, but we will play more zone than man here, Cover 2 and Cover 3, as it will allow us to drop back behind additional pressure.

2 RB - If they go with two RBs, Kyzir comes in for Rock and plays OLB. Tremaine would have the TE in man, while Rashaan would have the RB that releases to his side and Kyzir has the RB that releases to his side.

Heavy - If they go 2 RB/2 TE, then Kendall and Thornhill double Hopkins.  Winfield would play up in the box and have Higbee in coverage.  Tremaine would have Gesicki.  Kyzir and Rashaan would handle the RBs in the same manner as a base set while watching Allen if a RB stays in to help block.

[Scoundrel]

Jawaan Taylor has given up 7 sacks this season so going option and play action hopefully helps NO not sure it does though 

[Ragnarok]

5 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Jawaan Taylor has given up 7 sacks this season so going option and play action hopefully helps NO not sure it does though 

That's more than my entire "not above average" OL combined btw.

[WFLukic]

4 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Jawaan Taylor has given up 7 sacks this season so going option and play action hopefully helps NO not sure it does though 

I suspect that number would be far lower if he had Allen at QB rather than Minshew, Luton and Glennon. Allen turns would be sacks into big plays, those guys turn would be big plays into sacks.

[Scoundrel]

11 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

I suspect that number would be far lower if he had Allen at QB rather than Minshew, Luton and Glennon. Allen turns would be sacks into big plays, those guys turn would be big plays into sacks.

Allen is tied for the 12th most sacked QB. Let’s not act like it would be night and day.

[WFLukic]

1 hour ago, Counselor said:

Allen is tied for the 12th most sacked QB. Let’s not act like it would be night and day.

Right, but it would be far, far higher if it wasn't for his ability to evade sacks: 

Fact is Allen has a much better OL in front of him in the BDL, notwithstanding Taylor who admittedly isn't a good pass-blocker. So to mitigate Taylor's deficiencies we're going to focus on the run against a base defense with 6 defensive backs and then look to work with play-action. Obviously Smith is a great pass-rusher and will get his wins against Taylor, even with the play-action but Allen can still make plays under pressure and a sack and a pressure here and there from Smith is fine because I know the other 4 members of my OL should hold-up pretty well otherwise. 

Edited December 13, 2020 by WFLukic

[Ragnarok]

Luckily, I don't need to make excuses for any of my OL as Rodgers should have a nice clean jersey.  Especially after Kolton blanked Houston today.

[WFLukic]

Miller played pretty well, I'll give you that. However Solomon Kindley was beaten relentlessly and I'm sure Trey Hopkins had an all-pro performance as the Bengals put up 7 points. There's no way that interior keeps Rodgers clean.

[Ragnarok]

4 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

Miller played pretty well, I'll give you that. However Solomon Kindley was beaten relentlessly and I'm sure Trey Hopkins had an all-pro performance as the Bengals put up 7 points. There's no way that interior keeps Rodgers clean.

The bold is just a straight up lie.

Hopkins is the only viable offensive lineman the Bengals have with Jonah out and has been very solid all season.  

[WFLukic]

4 minutes ago, Ragnarok said:

The bold is just a straight up lie.

Hopkins is the only viable offensive lineman the Bengals have with Jonah out and has been very solid all season.  

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2020-week-14-pff-refocused-kansas-city-chiefs-33-miami-dolphins-27

"The Dolphins’ rookie offensive tackle duo of Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt played well, yet rookie guard Solomon Kindley struggled in both pass protection and the run game."

This is consistent with what I saw this morning. He got beat in the run game several times and gave up at least 1 sack to some random dude I'd never heard of.

[Ragnarok]

6 minutes ago, WFLukic said:

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2020-week-14-pff-refocused-kansas-city-chiefs-33-miami-dolphins-27

"The Dolphins’ rookie offensive tackle duo of Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt played well, yet rookie guard Solomon Kindley struggled in both pass protection and the run game."

This is consistent with what I saw this morning. He got beat in the run game several times and gave up at least 1 sack to some random dude I'd never heard of.

Ah, half a sentence off a PFF report they push out asap.  He was moving people in the run game.  But yes, he did get beat for a sack today which still gives my entire OL combined fewer sacks than Taylor has this year.  

[pheltzbahr]

[VigilantZombie]

I think this is a very high scoring game but I see Berlin as having a good enough defense to slow down the one dimensional offense that is New Orleans, their RBs are just not that good.

42-38 Berlin