e16bball Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 (edited) ** For those who don’t want to read the whole thing, please skip to the first reply post for the “TL;DR” version. Extensions: OG Brandon Scherff: 4/$60M, $34M guaranteed at signing. I didn’t really want to get here; I wanted them to trade him a while ago. But where they are now, an extension is probably the only reasonable path forward. You can’t pay him $18M for a swan song season. Make him the top OG (for now) by AAV and then hold your nose and hope he doesn’t get hurt. The OL is substantially better with him, and he’ll continue to help make Roullier and Moses better players when he’s on the field. 2021 Cap Effect = saves $8.5M. DT Jonathan Allen: 4/$56M, $28M guaranteed at signing. I’m confused as to why there’s not more talk of this. This should be done already, as it will lock in a very good player AND free up more cap space this season. There are concerns about paying him, when we have other players to pay, but the big bills won’t be coming due for another 2-3 seasons. We keep him now, and we re-evaluate when we get to the decision point in 2024 or so. 2021 Cap Effect = saves $3.5M. CB Ronald Darby: 3/$28M, $12M guaranteed at signing. I don’t like paying (or drafting) CBs because their play is so unpredictable and you just don’t know how a guy will play for you until you see him on the field in your scheme with your personnel. We saw Darby on the field last season, and he played pretty well. I’d rather pay him some decent coin than invest in a total question mark. 2021 Cap Effect = costs $6M. K Dustin Hopkins: 1/$3M. Are there better kickers? Sure. Are any of them freely available to us? Not that I’m aware of. They should always bring in competition for him, but he’s been a reliably middle-of-the-road kicker here (outside of the period when he was hurt last season). Much like I believe about CBs, you don’t really appreciate a decent kicker until you gamble and end up with a bad one. 2021 Cap Effect = costs $3M. Free Agency: WR Corey Davis: 4/$52M, $22M guaranteed at signing. This deal essentially treats him as a WR1.5, which I think is pretty appropriate (and is sort of the role we need to fill). For me, we’re talking about a substantially upgraded Cam Sims, a big body who will give us great blocking and physicality after the catch — just with a lot more speed. A guy who played on a very run-heavy offense with other target-gobbling receiving threats (Delanie Walker, AJ Brown) would be a nice fit on a team that wants to keep #17 at the forefront. 2021 Cap Effect = costs $7M LB Jayon Brown: 4/$38M, $18M guaranteed at signing. There were a couple other guys I had ahead of Brown on my defensive wishlist for this FA class, but they were retained by their original teams before hitting the market. He’s a quality consolation prize, with excellent coverage ability and a knack for making plays. He was playing ILB in a 3-4 with TEN, and I think a move to the weak side in a 4-3 (behind a DL like this) could open things up for him. 2021 cap effect = costs $6.5M OG Chris Reed: 3/$9M, $5M guaranteed at signing. I’ll be honest, I have no idea what this guy’s market will look like. If someone targets him as a starter, this could end up looking low. But I thought he played well for Carolina against us, and it looks like he played pretty well all year. The goal would be to add him as depth behind Schweitzer at LG and to let him compete for the starting job. 2021 cap effect = costs $2M FS Malik Hooker: 1/$5M, with a 2022 team option for $8M. Sorta stole this idea from @turtle28. One of the tricky things this season will be figuring out how to work the safety position. Adding a guy like Hooker to the mix brings a different element, a rangier playmaker who was born for the centerfield role. If it clicks, he could be a great fit with Curl going forward. Don’t know if he’d bite on the team option, but it would be a sticking point for me. 2021 cap effect = costs $5M DE Jihad Ward: 1/$1.5M. With both Kerrigan and Anderson will likely depart, we need to address DE depth. Ward is a big body who would fit in nicely on the strong side and could even play some 5-tech when they go back to the odd front (as they did often last year). He quietly put up nice numbers for the Ravens last year, posting more QB hits and nearly as many pressures as Kerrigan despite playing about 125 fewer snaps. 2021 cap effect = costs $1.5M **By my count, this would leave about $18M remaining on the 2021 cap to sign rookies, other depth players, etc.** Draft: Round 1: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech. It seems that his potential pick range varies quite widely from one observer to the next, probably based on the fact that he’s something of a one-year wonder. You love the size, the power, the ability to locate and destroy targets on the move. Some of the best stuff you’ll see on tape from last season are plays where Darrisaw is blocking downfield. I don’t think he’s the smoothest pass protector in the draft, but our offense tends to get the ball out so quickly that you can cover up some holes there. With two starting OTs over the age of 30, it’s time to look to the future, and this is the guy. Round 2: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue. I don’t know if Rondale will make it to us, but it looks like it’s going to be close. I’ve loved him since his freshman year — the burst and contact balance remind you of a quicker Antonio Gibson. He’s not a hugely polished downfield receiver, and the injuries have certainly been a problem, but he’s just so damn explosive. Would love him in a Curtis Samuel type role in this offense to complement McLaurin and Davis. Round 3: DE Patrick Jones, Pittsburgh. A month or two ago, I would have said it was crazy to think Patrick Jones would still be there at 74. But he had a rough week at the Senior Bowl, and now I think it’s entirely possible he drops that far. I’m not overly concerned about one bad week. This is a guy who was supremely productive on a consistent basis in the ACC, and I think he’s the perfect fit as our DE3 behind the two stars. Round 3: TE Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame. This is a guy everybody has on their wish list, so maybe this is too low for him. But for me, when it comes to looking for a TE in the draft, the key to upside is simple: speed. That’s what seems to separate the elite guys from the solid guys. I think Tremble is going to run well. We all know about his vicious blocking — that will always be there. Add good speed to the equation and you’ve got the recipe for a Kittle or a Kelce if he blossoms as a route runner with NFL coaching. Round 4: RB Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech. Was going to go with a bigger back like Rhamondre Stevenson or Trey Sermon, but the more I watch all of them, the more I feel like Herbert is just the best runner of the later mid-round guys, size be damned. He’s quick, he’s patient, he’s decisive when he spots a crack, and he finishes runs. He also hits the home run more than you’d think for a guy who doesn’t seem to have track speed. Just a really good player. Round 5: LB Justin Hilliard, Ohio State. This one is a gamble. He was a big-time recruit — all the way back in 2015. Multiple injuries derailed him, and he spent 6 years in Columbus. So he’s older and he has the big *injury prone* red flag. But he was also the best LB on the field for OSU when he was out there, and that’s saying something when you consider that Browning and Werner will likely be gone by this point. Round 7: TE Matt Bushman, BYU. There’s very little chance Bushman would have been a late round pick if he hadn’t hurt himself (Achilles) early this year. He would have put up numbers in that offense and would have been off the board by this point. He’s a good receiving TE who is more of an effort blocker than a real bulldozer, but he seems to do enough to get by. Would be a flyer to be TE3 and really revamp that TE room. Round 7: CB D.J. Daniel, Georgia. I would call this one a Senior Bowl pick, as I wasn’t particularly familiar with him before watching the one-on-ones. That’s an impossible place to succeed, but he showed to be a smooth mover with good COD and reactiveness, as well as a willingness to fight to contest the football. Don’t know that I see him becoming a starter, but I see quality depth with some scheme versatility and perhaps a special teams contributor. Edited March 15, 2021 by e16bball 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted March 15, 2021 Author Share Posted March 15, 2021 (edited) TL; DR Version: Extensions OG Brandon Scherff (4/$60M) DT Jonathan Allen (4/$56M) CB Ronald Darby (3/$28M) K Dustin Hopkins (1/$3M) Free Agency WR Corey Davis (4/$52M) LB Jayon Brown (4/$38M) OG Chris Reed (3/$9M) FS Malik Hooker (1/$5M with team option) DL Jihad Ward (1/$1.5M) Draft Round 1: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech Round 2: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue Round 3: DE Patrick Jones, Pittsburgh Round 3: TE Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame Round 4: RB Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech Round 5: LB Justin Hilliard, Ohio State Round 7: TE Matt Bushman, BYU Round 7: CB D.J. Daniel, Georgia Edited March 15, 2021 by e16bball Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted March 15, 2021 Author Share Posted March 15, 2021 Some notes from the author: ▪️ Elephant in the room: Yes, there’s no QB. Yes, I’m disappointed by that too. But I just don’t see the avenue to a good answer, and I don’t want to waste resources on a mediocre answer when we already have a couple of those on the roster. This was reinforced by Gruden’s comments today about how hard it is, logistically, to execute a 3-man QB competition with the limited snaps available. You kinda have to pick two and go with them, and I think we have our two. And perhaps next year we’ll be a good team picking in the top 10 because of it. ▪️ The goal with these contracts is to force most of the cap hit into 2022 and 2023. We are a bit limited this season by the deflated cap, and we need to be cognizant of 2024 as really the first time we may need major space for our budding young stars. The goal is to pay these guys for the next 3 seasons, while we aren’t paying the young guys anything close to market rate, and then have these contracts fall off to make room for Terry, Montez, Chase, etc. ▪️ I’ll admit, I don’t love Jayon Brown. I really wanted to go FS for our major defensive splash addition — and then Justin Simmons, Marcus Williams, and Marcus Maye all got franchised. I also preferred Matt Milano to Brown, even among WLB free agent options, but he got extended. So I think it’s a gamble on Brown, but I do like the idea of taking him out of an ILB position and freeing him up to do what he does best instead of asking him to take on guards and meet guys in the hole every play. ▪️ Speaking of LB, I’m almost as bummed about no MLB answer as I am about no QB. I just don’t see the right option out there this year. But if we don’t like the choices at 19, I would strongly consider a trade down that might net us Nick Bolton at a good value. I like (but don’t love) him as a true 4-3 MLB. This is one area where I will trust Rivera/Hurney — they know how to find LBs who can really play, and they clearly value the positions, so I hope they spy one they really like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoganF89 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, e16bball said: TL; DR Version: Extensions OG Brandon Scherff (4/$60M) DT Jonathan Allen (4/$56M) CB Ronald Darby (3/$28M) K Dustin Hopkins (1/$3M) Free Agency WR Corey Davis (4/$52M) LB Jayon Brown (4/$38M) OG Chris Reed (3/$9M) FS Malik Hooker (1/$5M with team option) DL Jihad Ward (1/$1.5M) Draft Round 1: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech Round 2: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue Round 3: DE Patrick Jones, Pittsburgh Round 3: TE Tommy Tremble, Notre Dame Round 4: RB Khalil Herbert, Virginia Tech Round 5: LB Justin Hilliard, Ohio State Round 7: TE Matt Bushman, BYU Round 7: CB D.J. Daniel, Georgia I like the resignings i love the free agency! I don’t know much about Chris Reed but we do still have Charles we just don’t know if he will be a guard or tackle. I could see it either way, he could become a starting guard or very well take over for Moses at RT when the time comes. I don’t think he becomes a LT, but the Reed pickup is interesting 1. as far as the draft goes, I’m cool with Darrisaw depending on who’s left on the board. I’m confident in Lucas this year if a good player fall 2. I love this pick, I think the 2nd is where we either get another LB or a slot guy, I like Elijah Moore as well! 3. While I agree we need depth you already signed a guy in FA there and I like smith Williams as well, I would wait later if we go edge 3. I like this spot for TE but I would go Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long if they are there 4. I like the pick but he could be there in the 5th but I’m cool with a RB here 5. I would take a linebacker earlier, I haven’t heard much on him but doesn’t Ohio St. have two other more notable LBs in the draft? 7 I’m cool with both of those picks all in all I think it’s a solid offseason! I would be alright with that! Like I said I love the FA signings! I like how your ok without getting a QB, if we don’t take one in the 1st or sign one I would however possibly look at Mond or Mills later in the draft though, I see us having 3 QBs on game day and I don’t think Montez is roster worthy. great job though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoganF89 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 1 minute ago, e16bball said: ▪️ Speaking of LB, I’m almost as bummed about no MLB answer as I am about no QB. I just don’t see the right option out there this year. But if we don’t like the choices at 19, I would strongly consider a trade down that might net us Nick Bolton at a good value. I like (but don’t love) him as a true 4-3 MLB. This is one area where I will trust Rivera/Hurney — they know how to find LBs who can really play, and they clearly value the positions, so I hope they spy one they really like. I would consider Zaven at 19, May be a little high but he’s a stud. a line backer core of Zaven, Holcomb, Brown could be nasty! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lavar703 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Oh come on E lol. No way we sign all those guys. I love it but it’s not happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted March 15, 2021 Author Share Posted March 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, lavar703 said: Oh come on E lol. No way we sign all those guys. I love it but it’s not happening. 😂 two guys? Just give me two guys! The rest are filler, keep your former Panthers and your Jihads and your Hookers if you want, but I need two guys! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lavar703 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, e16bball said: 😂 two guys? Just give me two guys! The rest are filler, keep your former Panthers and your Jihads and your Hookers if you want, but I need two guys! I know I sound like a downer and I’ll get crap for it just like I did last year but Rivera doesn’t understand who he’s coaching for. He doesn’t have the luxury of a long rebuild. He’ll be on the hot seat if he goes into next season and they struggle. He can’t just keep letting players walk and filling it in with camp fodder types and back ups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ARTMONK HOF Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 (edited) Like E said 2 guys. C Davis and J Brown and I would be ecstatic. Filling 2 big needs. That would be considered a big haul for this new regime. Edited March 15, 2021 by ARTMONK HOF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted March 15, 2021 Author Share Posted March 15, 2021 23 minutes ago, LoganF89 said: I like the resignings i love the free agency! I don’t know much about Chris Reed but we do still have Charles we just don’t know if he will be a guard or tackle. I could see it either way, he could become a starting guard or very well take over for Moses at RT when the time comes. I don’t think he becomes a LT, but the Reed pickup is interesting 1. as far as the draft goes, I’m cool with Darrisaw depending on who’s left on the board. I’m confident in Lucas this year if a good player fall 2. I love this pick, I think the 2nd is where we either get another LB or a slot guy, I like Elijah Moore as well! 3. While I agree we need depth you already signed a guy in FA there and I like smith Williams as well, I would wait later if we go edge 3. I like this spot for TE but I would go Brevin Jordan or Hunter Long if they are there 4. I like the pick but he could be there in the 5th but I’m cool with a RB here 5. I would take a linebacker earlier, I haven’t heard much on him but doesn’t Ohio St. have two other more notable LBs in the draft? 7 I’m cool with both of those picks all in all I think it’s a solid offseason! I would be alright with that! Like I said I love the FA signings! I like how your ok without getting a QB, if we don’t take one in the 1st or sign one I would however possibly look at Mond or Mills later in the draft though, I see us having 3 QBs on game day and I don’t think Montez is roster worthy. great job though! Great comments. I don’t feel rock solid on this one, I’ve been hemming and hawing on how I think we should go about this offseason, and I’m really pulled in a lot of directions. That’s a big reason why I didn’t get out a single “pre-FA” mock until after FA had actually started 😂 My thoughts on a couple of these: I’m really focused on trying to build a high-level OL with quality depth. I think OL play is arguably the most critical factor in effectively developing a young QB, and if you’re trying to contend, nothing can derail you faster than bad OL depth being exposed. That’s why I made such big investments in Scherff and Darrisaw. I would have gone a different direction with Scherff, but I think now they’re boxed into a corner and have to extend him. And I really absolutely love Darrisaw as a multi-level run-blocker, and I think our scheme will protect him a bit as he improves in pass pro. I’m envisioning a Darrisaw/Charles tackle combo in the future, would love if that came to fruition. And as for Chris Reed, I figure that if you’re investing that much in something (in this case, Brandon Scherff), you might as well pay for insurance. Having a third guy who can credibly start at OG gives you some security in the event that you lose Scherff for a period of time. Patrick Jones is a personal favorite of mine, and I think a bad pre-draft process is going to make him a real steal. Based on the tape from Pitt, I think no one would ever have this guy in the mid-3rd, so for me it’s a bit of a value pick more than a need-filler. That said, I do think DE3 is a need. I like JSW too, but he (and Jihad Ward too for that matter) are closer to DE/DT tweeners than they are true pass-rush threats. We had Kerrigan on the field for almost 400 snaps (38%) last season, and I do think we need to find a guy to duplicate some of the pressure he gave us when spelling Young/Sweat. Tommy Tremble is one of the weirdest picks I’ve ever made. I never thought I’d be promoting taking a TE in the 3rd who caught 35 passes in his entire career. But I am openly (and shamelessly) chasing another George Kittle, who only caught 48 passes in 4 seasons at Iowa. What he had was elite speed (4.52) and ferocious blocking in his profile. This pick is subject to change on 3/31 if Tremble doesn’t run well at his Pro Day, but if he does, I’ll be all in. I see him as a nice complement to Thomas early on (as I think the run blocking will play right away) and a guy who could emerge as a legit two-way star with a couple years of NFL coaching. I like Brevin Jordan a lot more as a receiver, so if he’s still there in the mid-3rd, I would be fine with him as well. He just won’t give you the blocking piece. Justin Hilliard is a big gamble, in the boom/bust category, and the truth is he’ll probably bust. Tons of injury problems, quite old for a prospect (as is Bushman, due to missions trip), and he barely got on the field in 6 years at OSU. But he was awesome down the stretch for them, and I thought he genuinely looked better than both Browning and Werner when he was out there. It would be a dice roll on significant upside, hoping that he’s past all the injuries and will give you the level he showed at the end of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog44 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 3 hours ago, e16bball said: WR Corey Davis: 4/$52M, $22M guaranteed at signing. This deal essentially treats him as a WR1.5, which I think is pretty appropriate (and is sort of the role we need to fill). For me, we’re talking about a substantially upgraded Cam Sims, a big body who will give us great blocking and physicality after the catch — just with a lot more speed. A guy who played on a very run-heavy offense with other target-gobbling receiving threats (Delanie Walker, AJ Brown) would be a nice fit on a team that wants to keep #17 at the forefront. 2021 Cap Effect = costs $7M Couldn’t have said it better myself 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TOUCAN Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 I struggle with the no QB thing I really do. I don't think this team is good enough to go in and do anything without one especially with how good the defense is. I honestly believe there is SOMETHING out there for us and it's not in that QB room at the moment. Why settle for mediocre when you can be good? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e16bball Posted March 15, 2021 Author Share Posted March 15, 2021 40 minutes ago, JoshstraDaymus said: I struggle with the no QB thing I really do. I don't think this team is good enough to go in and do anything without one especially with how good the defense is. I honestly believe there is SOMETHING out there for us and it's not in that QB room at the moment. Why settle for mediocre when you can be good? I guess my take is that I don’t think they can be good, if that’s defined as acquiring “good or better” play in a feasible manner. I don’t know that we need to re-hash all the options, but what’s the “good” path? I don’t see it in FA. Jameis Winston is the only one with a high enough ceiling for my taste, and I believe there’s a better chance of Ron Rivera drafting me (in my 13th consecutive year of draft eligibility) than there is of him signing Jameis Winston. Otherwise, it’s a whole list of guys we’d pay $10M AAV on a short deal to perhaps be marginally better than Kyle Allen would. In my view, at least. Maybe there are some big Mariota (if released) or Trubisky fans. I don’t love the trade options. Sure, I guess I could bite on a low-priced Darnold deal like a 4th or a conditional future pick tied to his performance level. But I don’t think that ends up being the price, and what makes us believe that he’s any better than Allen? His former draft stock and the somewhat blind hope that maybe NYJ sucked so comprehensively and so very badly that you can completely ignore how bad he himself was? I’d offer more for Deshaun Watson than most here would. But I don’t think that jibes with all of Rivera’s talk of “slow build” and “building the right way” and all that. I don’t think that’s his mindset, and I’m not sure Watson would sign off on coming here anyway. Even if things are changing to some degree, the reputation here is still...not great. It seems like a real longshot. Which leaves the draft. I have Lawrence, Wilson, and Fields all gone in the top 4. Meaning we’d either have to have Lance or Jones fall to us (I don’t see it), or we’d have to move up. What kind of price are you willing to pay for a one-year Alabama starter or a one-year FCS starter? I would think to secure your guy, you’d have to go up to 7 or 9, and that’s costing at least next year’s 1st plus more. I’d only consider doing it for Lance, because of the ceiling, and I really don’t think I’d have the stones to do it. Which leaves lesser draft prospects. And my personal belief is that using quality mid-round picks on lesser prospects is generally the significantly less enjoyable equivalent of just lighting the draft card on fire. Sure, someone hits on one every couple years, and if it’s you, that’s great. I would consider Trask or Mond in the 3rd, if I had a great read on their intangibles. But that’s not a real killer option either, let’s just put it that way. So in the end, I figured it would be better to keep building the team with as much talent and depth as possible, and not try to force a QB move. With the hope being that either (a) Allen or Heinicke emerges as a star or (b) we lose a lot of games despite a stacked roster and find ourselves closer to the hunt for a top QB next year. I dunno. Like I said, I find it disappointing. I probably should have pushed harder for getting Stafford, because the rest of the options this offseason have all dried up. But that’s where I think we find ourselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylor made Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Can't go wrong with Darrisaw 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigdog44 Posted March 15, 2021 Share Posted March 15, 2021 Algehor got 12 per from New England. Davis’ price just went up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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