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Madden '22 Prediction - Stafford/Rams and Goff/Lions


Karnage84

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49 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I mean, Tom Brady has won half of the championships over the last 14 years so you can't really judge the non-great QB thing fairly.  He will be retired in a year or two and the league will open up again.  We still have seen Nick Foles win a SB, A Peyton manning who could barely throw, Brady has been carried by his D a few times, Flacco etc.  Ben Roethlisberger isnt a great QB, was never a top 5 QB in the league yet won SBs. Eli was never a top 5 QB in the league.  The playoffs are about defense and clutch plays.  If he is in the 8-12 range of QBs you keep him. If he is 13-17, you have to look at the supporting cast and see how much is on him and how much is on the lack of WR talent.  If he makes dumb decisions and throws to defenders chests and overthrows open guys, you move on from him.  But if he is serviceable, we can be contenders if we build up the D and keep improving the WR position.  

Brady is the greatest ever so that helps my point. Roethlisberger is a HOFer. Flacco was spectacular on that run as was Foles.

I don't see Goff as ever being great and I don't think it's wise to rely on an outlier approach. 

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13 minutes ago, detroitroar said:

Brady is the greatest ever so that helps my point. Roethlisberger is a HOFer. Flacco was spectacular on that run as was Foles.

I don't see Goff as ever being great and I don't think it's wise to rely on an outlier approach. 

Ben is a HOFer because of the Super Bowls.  He has been top 5 in QBR 3 times in his career, typically coming in 10-15 range.  

Brady is the greatest ever, you can't judge against him because he has lost against plenty of not great QBs (Eli twice, Foles, others before getting to the SB).  Never again will we see someone win at a rate as high as him.  Pre-Brady, you had some really good QBs but Aikman wasn't great, he just had a squad around him.  Hostetler, Brad Johnson, Mark Rypien, Dilfer etc were winners along with SB losing QBs of Grossman, Hasselback, Kerry Collins, Delhome, Newton, Chandler etc.  Yes having a top 5 all time QB would be great, but the odds of finding that are slim, so when you have a decent QB, you keep him.  People want to trade up for a Deshaun Watson type but what has he ever won?  Josh Allen hasn't been to a SB, neither has Lamar Jackson.  Rodgers has 1. Its hard to find a great QB so build up the rest of the team unless your guys is trash.  

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1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Ben is a HOFer because of the Super Bowls.  He has been top 5 in QBR 3 times in his career, typically coming in 10-15 range.  

Brady is the greatest ever, you can't judge against him because he has lost against plenty of not great QBs (Eli twice, Foles, others before getting to the SB).  Never again will we see someone win at a rate as high as him.  Pre-Brady, you had some really good QBs but Aikman wasn't great, he just had a squad around him.  Hostetler, Brad Johnson, Mark Rypien, Dilfer etc were winners along with SB losing QBs of Grossman, Hasselback, Kerry Collins, Delhome, Newton, Chandler etc.  Yes having a top 5 all time QB would be great, but the odds of finding that are slim, so when you have a decent QB, you keep him.  People want to trade up for a Deshaun Watson type but what has he ever won?  Josh Allen hasn't been to a SB, neither has Lamar Jackson.  Rodgers has 1. Its hard to find a great QB so build up the rest of the team unless your guys is trash.  

I'm with Sllim on this one. We had Stafford who is generally perceived to be one of the better QB's in the league (talent wise). It only got u so far and we wound up with a lot of L's because we constantly did not have a strong supporting cast. I would also throw coaching in as generally being questionable. You don't need Joe Montana if you have decent coaching with players being properly developed; a strong defense and run game, good protection and enough weapons to make the pass a legit threat. 

We have seen HOF QB's falter because of the lack of support around them. I am of the belief that we should build up the roster and then find "the guy" vs. getting him and then trying to build around him. Finding a high level QB is very difficult but it's a lot easier to find one guy instead of picking the right 52 others. 

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6 hours ago, detroitroar said:

Brady is the greatest ever so that helps my point. Roethlisberger is a HOFer. Flacco was spectacular on that run as was Foles.

I don't see Goff as ever being great and I don't think it's wise to rely on an outlier approach. 

Odds being what they are, no matter what you do, you'll likely be relying on an outlier approach.

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4 hours ago, detroitroar said:

In what ways?

In any given generation, there are only a few special QBs who put you into SB contention year in and year out. The rest of the teams make due with guys who range from very good to terrible. The odds of you landing a Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady or Peyton Manning simply aren't good. So you'll almost certainly be relying on a guy who needs a lot of help. Obviously, how good your QB is will give you more or less wiggle room on the help. 

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In a team sport it’s about position competency (including backups).

Good teams game plan to take advantage of opposition weakness. You can have the best QB in the world but it doesn’t mean much if the team is trash. 

Grading a QB on super bowls, in a team sport, isn’t something I’ve ever believed in.

A competent QB on a competent team will find a good level of success. As fans we can’t grade intangibles like work ethic, personality, quality of team mate etc. and those all weigh heavily in team success.

As a side note, if I had the opportunity to choose a QB from history to QB my team Sonny Jurgensen would be my selection. 

 

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8 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

In a team sport it’s about position competency (including backups).

Good teams game plan to take advantage of opposition weakness. You can have the best QB in the world but it doesn’t mean much if the team is trash. 

Grading a QB on super bowls, in a team sport, isn’t something I’ve ever believed in.

A competent QB on a competent team will find a good level of success. As fans we can’t grade intangibles like work ethic, personality, quality of team mate etc. and those all weigh heavily in team success.

As a side note, if I had the opportunity to choose a QB from history to QB my team Sonny Jurgensen would be my selection. 

 

I definitely agree. I don't look at championships much when evaluating players in almost any team sport - especially something like football or baseball. 

I think that guys like Dan Marino have shown us that you can have a truly elite QB and still not win a bunch of rings. Even Peyton Manning only won one when he was playing at the highest level possible - he got his second ring when he was just a game manager on a great team. 

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2 hours ago, Lions017 said:

I definitely agree. I don't look at championships much when evaluating players in almost any team sport - especially something like football or baseball. 

I think that guys like Dan Marino have shown us that you can have a truly elite QB and still not win a bunch of rings. Even Peyton Manning only won one when he was playing at the highest level possible - he got his second ring when he was just a game manager on a great team. 

Add to that Rogders and Favre both had 1, meanwhile Eli gets 2, and others barely being back ups can win one.  The only reason I would suggest moving on from Goff if he shows signs of life is when his contract expires and what it might cost to keep him.  A rookie is always easier to win with due to cap issues. 

Side note, I am shocked others haven't played the Tom Brady contract method.  I get that guys want the money they can make while they can make it but he took discounts every year to allow the Patriots to keep their good players and sign free agents.  He knew it was a team game and he was ok making less to keep a team around him.  Last year was his highest earning year at 28.3M, which isnt even top 10 still.  

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  • 11 months later...
34 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

This aged well.

So did this

Quote

If he is in the 8-12 range of QBs you keep him. If he is 13-17, you have to look at the supporting cast and see how much is on him and how much is on the lack of WR talent.  If he makes dumb decisions and throws to defenders chests and overthrows open guys, you move on from him.  But if he is serviceable, we can be contenders if we build up the D and keep improving the WR position. 

Goff finished 17th in QB rating last year and 5th in Int%, 10th in completion % but in the 20s in yards per pass attempt and TD%.  It seems a lot of that was due to the bad WR core especially with injuries and down the stretch when ARSB and Reynolds stepped up, he was pretty good.   So now with the better WR group and improving D, will be interesting to see how he handles it and where he takes us.  

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