Trevor Lawrence is looking like a bad pick for the Jags

[.Buzz]

4 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said:

The Lawrence Stans are just hypersensitive right now. You're fine. 

There was literally a thread that asked how long until he won 4 Superbowls in Jacksonville, and there was actual conversation about it as if it were a foregone conclusion. 

Let them grieve a bit and they'll get over it.

NFL Gen always lives up to the billing.

[MacReady]

He's not wrong though.

I say it every year, and it's got at least a 90% accuracy rate, but the single best indicator for future success at the QB position is average yards per attempt in their rookie year.

Since the league changed all the rules on offense and protected quarterbacks and helped receivers, there's zero excuse to not throw for over 6.2-ish yards per attempt. I don't care if you've got the worst coach and offense in the world, if you're completing less than 6.2 yards per attempt, you're not gonna make it in this league.

This has been true since roughly 2010. Since 2010, you can tell after the first year if a QB is going to be worth keeping after their first year as a starter. It's just too hard to not have some success at QB if you're going to have any success.

Quarterbacks yards per attempt in their first full year as a starter:
Patrick Mahomes - 8.8 yards per attempt.
Deshaun Watson - 8.3 yards per attempt.
Dak Prescott - 8.0 yards per attempt.
Baker Mayfield 7.7 yards per attempt.
Jameis Winston - 7.6 yards per attempt.
Marcus Mariota - 7.6 yards per attempt.
Mac Jones - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Justin Herbert - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Teddy Bridgewater - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Kyler Murray - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Justin Fields - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Sam Darnold - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Joe Burrow - 6.7 yards per attempt.
Daniel Jones - 6.6 yards per attempt.
Mitchell Trubisky - 6.6 yards per attempt.
Josh Allen - 6.5 yards per attempt.
Tua Tagovailoa - 6.3 yards per attempt.
Johnny Manziel - 6.3 yards per attempt.
Carson Wentz - 6.2 yards per attempt.
Zach Wilson - 6.1 yards per attempt.
Blake Bortles - 6.1 yards per attempt.
Trevor Lawrence - 6.0 yards per attempt.
Dwayne Haskings - 5.9 yards per attempt.
Drew Lock - 5.8 yards per attempt.
Josh Rosen - 5.8 yards per attempt.
Jared Goff - 5.3 yards per attempt.

As you can plainly see, if you're not completing 6.5 yards per attempt in your rookie year minimum, you're likely not going to have much in store for you in your NFL career.

This list also has plenty of examples of quarterbacks in bad situations in their first years coming back and having good NFL careers, but even those ones were above or at 6.5 yards per attempt (Allen, Burrow).

It's obviously not perfect and you can't tell HOW good a QB is going to be in their career, but it gives you a pretty good hint. A darn good hint. Mahomes at 8.8, Prescott at 8.0, Watson...

And there isn't a single QB who threw for less than 6.5 yards per attempt in their rookie year who went on to have a great or even good career. Johnny, Carson, Blake, Dwayne, Drew, Josh, Jared... They're all considered considerable busts.

So you look at Lawrence sitting between Bortles and Haskins and it doesn't inspire much confidence.

[tyler735]

2 hours ago, ET80 said:

Oh, this isn't garbage. Entertaining, yes. Not garbage.

You wanna see a garbage thread, hunt down one of those Alvin Kamara threads in Comparison - it's basically @tyler735 and @GSUeagles14 arguing about ADOT at 15 page increments, followed up by someone arguing that Derrick Henry wasn't better than Kamara.

That thread broke my brain and soul. Not in that order.

 

[notthatbluestuff]

30 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

He's not wrong though.

I say it every year, and it's got at least a 90% accuracy rate, but the single best indicator for future success at the QB position is average yards per attempt in their rookie year.

Since the league changed all the rules on offense and protected quarterbacks and helped receivers, there's zero excuse to not throw for over 6.2-ish yards per attempt. I don't care if you've got the worst coach and offense in the world, if you're completing less than 6.2 yards per attempt, you're not gonna make it in this league.

This has been true since roughly 2010. Since 2010, you can tell after the first year if a QB is going to be worth keeping after their first year as a starter. It's just too hard to not have some success at QB if you're going to have any success.

Quarterbacks yards per attempt in their first full year as a starter:
Patrick Mahomes - 8.8 yards per attempt.
Deshaun Watson - 8.3 yards per attempt.
Dak Prescott - 8.0 yards per attempt.
Baker Mayfield 7.7 yards per attempt.
Jameis Winston - 7.6 yards per attempt.
Marcus Mariota - 7.6 yards per attempt.
Mac Jones - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Justin Herbert - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Teddy Bridgewater - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Kyler Murray - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Justin Fields - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Sam Darnold - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Joe Burrow - 6.7 yards per attempt.
Daniel Jones - 6.6 yards per attempt.
Mitchell Trubisky - 6.6 yards per attempt.
Josh Allen - 6.5 yards per attempt.
Tua Tagovailoa - 6.3 yards per attempt.
Johnny Manziel - 6.3 yards per attempt.
Carson Wentz - 6.2 yards per attempt.
Zach Wilson - 6.1 yards per attempt.
Blake Bortles - 6.1 yards per attempt.
Trevor Lawrence - 6.0 yards per attempt.
Dwayne Haskings - 5.9 yards per attempt.
Drew Lock - 5.8 yards per attempt.
Josh Rosen - 5.8 yards per attempt.
Jared Goff - 5.3 yards per attempt.

As you can plainly see, if you're not completing 6.5 yards per attempt in your rookie year minimum, you're likely not going to have much in store for you in your NFL career.

This list also has plenty of examples of quarterbacks in bad situations in their first years coming back and having good NFL careers, but even those ones were above or at 6.5 yards per attempt (Allen, Burrow).

It's obviously not perfect and you can't tell HOW good a QB is going to be in their career, but it gives you a pretty good hint. A darn good hint. Mahomes at 8.8, Prescott at 8.0, Watson...

And there isn't a single QB who threw for less than 6.5 yards per attempt in their rookie year who went on to have a great or even good career. Johnny, Carson, Blake, Dwayne, Drew, Josh, Jared... They're all considered considerable busts.

So you look at Lawrence sitting between Bortles and Haskins and it doesn't inspire much confidence.

[pwny]

3 hours ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Typical reactionary NFL Gen - Lawrence has a good game and suddenly the thread is "disproven" and he is great after all! 

Didn’t you make this thread after two career games?

[notthatbluestuff]

1 minute ago, pwny said:

Didn’t you make this thread after two career games?

[Mesa_Titan]

Just now, pwny said:

Didn’t you make this thread after two career games?

Fair criticism. And tbh, it pretty much just looks like he’s rooting for him to fail, which I can’t blame him, I want him to fail too. Problem is when you cherry pick stats to support your argument and ignore others. 

I’m with you guys on the “he had a bad supporting cast” train. I watched that unfold on my own team when we were down a million players. I’ve also watched a bunch of Lawrence and the bad has outweighed the good pretty much all year. That’s not to say he won’t turn it around, but if it continues next year it’s going to be uglyyyy. 

[pwny]

Just now, notthatbluestuff said:

No, no. I get it. You spend half the time in the thread telling people that this was and still is just a joke thread in response to the other reactionary threads that were being posted at the same time, and the other half telling people that you’re confident you’re right. You’re playing both sides here, poking fun at reactionary takes while using the opportunity to peddle reactionary takes of your own that you’re boasting confidence in and arguing with anyone who agrees with the idea of the claimed actual purpose of the thread.

[notthatbluestuff]

1 minute ago, Mesa_Titan said:

Fair criticism. And tbh, it pretty much just looks like he’s rooting for him to fail, which I can’t blame him, I want him to fail too.

Not at all - I like Lawrence and it would be good for the JAGs to finally have a real franchise star at the QB position. It would be a lot of fun.

That said, I intend to get sincere apologies from all of those jokesters who posted their funny GIFs at the start of this thread. 

[Mesa_Titan]

1 minute ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Not at all - I like Lawrence and it would be good for the JAGs to finally have a real franchise star at the QB position. It would be a lot of fun.

That said, I intend to get sincere apologies from all of those jokesters who posted their funny GIFs at the start of this thread. 

It would be fun if the Colts were in the basement of the AFC South with the Texans for the foreseeable future? Ok then. 😂

[notthatbluestuff]

4 minutes ago, pwny said:

No, no. I get it. You spend half the time in the thread telling people that this was and still is just a joke thread in response to the other reactionary threads that were being posted at the same time, and the other half telling people that you’re confident you’re right. You’re playing both sides here, poking fun at reactionary takes while using the opportunity to peddle reactionary takes of your own that you’re boasting confidence in and arguing with anyone who agrees with the idea of the claimed actual purpose of the thread.

What "takes" have I actually made in this thread other than the satirical original post? That's a legitimate question, by the way. I think you'll find that all the real take-making has been the work of others. Certainly not I. 

Edited January 10, 2022 by notthatbluestuff

[notthatbluestuff]

Just now, Mesa_Titan said:

It would be fun if the Colts were in the basement of the AFC South with the Texans for the foreseeable future? Ok then. 😂

Lawrence being good doesn't mean the Colts have to be in the basement. 

[BigTrav]

55 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

He's not wrong though.

I say it every year, and it's got at least a 90% accuracy rate, but the single best indicator for future success at the QB position is average yards per attempt in their rookie year.

Since the league changed all the rules on offense and protected quarterbacks and helped receivers, there's zero excuse to not throw for over 6.2-ish yards per attempt. I don't care if you've got the worst coach and offense in the world, if you're completing less than 6.2 yards per attempt, you're not gonna make it in this league.

This has been true since roughly 2010. Since 2010, you can tell after the first year if a QB is going to be worth keeping after their first year as a starter. It's just too hard to not have some success at QB if you're going to have any success.

Quarterbacks yards per attempt in their first full year as a starter:
Patrick Mahomes - 8.8 yards per attempt.
Deshaun Watson - 8.3 yards per attempt.
Dak Prescott - 8.0 yards per attempt.
Baker Mayfield 7.7 yards per attempt.
Jameis Winston - 7.6 yards per attempt.
Marcus Mariota - 7.6 yards per attempt.
Mac Jones - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Justin Herbert - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Teddy Bridgewater - 7.3 yards per attempt.
Kyler Murray - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Justin Fields - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Sam Darnold - 6.9 yards per attempt.
Joe Burrow - 6.7 yards per attempt.
Daniel Jones - 6.6 yards per attempt.
Mitchell Trubisky - 6.6 yards per attempt.
Josh Allen - 6.5 yards per attempt.
Tua Tagovailoa - 6.3 yards per attempt.
Johnny Manziel - 6.3 yards per attempt.
Carson Wentz - 6.2 yards per attempt.
Zach Wilson - 6.1 yards per attempt.
Blake Bortles - 6.1 yards per attempt.
Trevor Lawrence - 6.0 yards per attempt.
Dwayne Haskings - 5.9 yards per attempt.
Drew Lock - 5.8 yards per attempt.
Josh Rosen - 5.8 yards per attempt.
Jared Goff - 5.3 yards per attempt.

As you can plainly see, if you're not completing 6.5 yards per attempt in your rookie year minimum, you're likely not going to have much in store for you in your NFL career.

This list also has plenty of examples of quarterbacks in bad situations in their first years coming back and having good NFL careers, but even those ones were above or at 6.5 yards per attempt (Allen, Burrow).

It's obviously not perfect and you can't tell HOW good a QB is going to be in their career, but it gives you a pretty good hint. A darn good hint. Mahomes at 8.8, Prescott at 8.0, Watson...

And there isn't a single QB who threw for less than 6.5 yards per attempt in their rookie year who went on to have a great or even good career. Johnny, Carson, Blake, Dwayne, Drew, Josh, Jared... They're all considered considerable busts.

So you look at Lawrence sitting between Bortles and Haskins and it doesn't inspire much confidence.

…brutal

[Mesa_Titan]

Just now, notthatbluestuff said:

Lawrence being good doesn't mean the Colts have to be in the basement. 

It does when they have Carson Wentz and no first round pick this year. Gonna take a bit to recover from that. More so on the Carson Wentz side of things. 

[notthatbluestuff]

Just now, Mesa_Titan said:

It does when they have Carson Wentz and no first round pick this year. Gonna take a bit to recover from that. More so on the Carson Wentz side of things. 

Not having a first round pick is hardly a death sentence, teams screw those up every year; and yeah Wentz definitely disappointed in the end. Still, however long it takes for Lawrence to ascend - two years, three? - that's a long time in the NFL. Who knows what the rosters will look like by then? Like I said, it'll be fun. The AFC South has long been derided as a fairly flat division in terms of intrigue and rivalries. I'm all for more talent being injected all round.