Woz Posted November 27, 2021 Share Posted November 27, 2021 You are convinced that the team has turned a corner and is hitting their stride. Dallas is faltering and what looked liked them wrapping up the division by Thanksgiving now looks like it could be there for the taking. So beyond the obvious (rooting for Washington and against the rest of the NFC East) what needs to happen? NFC South Tampa Bay Currently: first in the South by 2.5 games; 3.0 games ahead of Washington Tiebreaker: Washington owns head-to-head tiebreaker Commentary: Rooting against Tom Brady is always a positive for humanity. Given that Washington has the tiebreaker, this also is good for WFT's ayoffplay (1) hopes. Carolina Currently: second in the South by 0.0 games (ahead of New Orleans due to head-to-head); 0.5 games ahead of Washington Tiebreaker: Washington owns head-to-head tiebreaker Commentary: The Panthers have their bye coming up next week. Should Washington fail-to-lose (2), they'll overtake Carolina. New Orleans Currently: third in the South by 0.0 games (behind Carolina due to head-to-head); 0.5 games ahead of Washington Tiebreaker: New Orleans owns head-to-head tiebreaker Commentary: Optimists should raise a glass to Buffalo as that beat down they had on Thanksgiving gives Washington some daylight versus the Saints. Still you want to root against the Saints because they do have the tiebreaker. Atlanta Currently: fourth in the South by 0.5 games; tied record with Washington Tiebreaker: Washington owns head-to-head tiebreaker Commentary: Even if the Falcons keep pace with them, Washington should be okay due to the head-to-head. OVERALL: Washington is actually in a good place relative to the NFC South. Had Washington gotten luckier and switched the Carolina and New Orleans dates, they could have potentially swept the South. The Optimist should probably favor seeing Carolina and Atlanta succeed while rooting for New Orleans and Tampa Bay faltering. Ideally, the South would be won by a team just a bit over or under 0.500. NFC North Green Bay Currently: first in the North by 3.0 games; 3.5 games ahead of Washington Tiebreaker: Green Bay owns head-to-head tiebreaker Commentary: Barring a collapse (read: a significant absence (either due to injury or chuckleheadness) to Aaron Rodgers), the Packers probably have yet another NFC North championship in their near future. Given the distance in terms of record and the head-to-head tiebreaker, this is probably an Optimist's preference. Minnesota Currently: second in the North by 1.5 games; 1.0 games ahead of Washington Tiebreaker: Teams do not play --> Conference record: both teams are currently 4-2 in the NFC --> Common games: Common games: Carolina, Dallas, Green Bay, LA Chargers(3), Seattle Minnesota FTLs: Carolina, Green Bay, LA Chargers, Seattle Ls: Dallas Still to Play: Green Bay Record = 4-1 with one to play Washington FTLs: Carolina Ls: Green Bay, LA Chargers Still to Play: Dallas (twice), Seattle Record = 1-2 with three to play RESULT: Minnesota owns common games tiebreaker Commentary: If the ayoffsplay were today, the Vikings would be the 6th seed.At best, Washington can force going to the next tiebreaker should they fail-to-lose their three games and Minnesota loses. If it went to the next tiebreaker (strength of victory), Washington is favored as of right now (0.463 vs. 0.425), but that would drop for Washington should things break their way. The Optimist should be rooting heavily against Minnesota as having to worry about going this deep in the tiebreaker is a dicey proposition. Chicago Currently: third in the North by 1.5 games; 0.5 games behind Washington Tiebreaker: Teams do not play --> Conference record: Washington = 4-2 and Chicago = 2-4; Washington owns conference record tiebreaker Commentary: The Bears have the opposite of Washington's conference record (2-4) so they are not really a threat at this juncture should things continue to break Washington's way. Detroit Currently: third in the North by 3.5 games; 4.0 games behind Washington Tiebreaker Teams do not play --> Conference record: Washington = 4-2 and Detroit = 0-7; Washington owns conference record tiebreaker Commentary: if they become part of the conversation, the Optimist will want to wander over to the Pessimist's Corner. NFC West Arizona Currently: first in the West by 2.5 games; 4.5 games ahead of Washington Tiebreaker: Teams do not play --> Conference record: Arizona = 5-2 and Washington = 4-2; Arizona owns conference record tiebreaker Commentary: As it stands right now, it looks like the West will be coming down to either Arizona or the LA Rams. The loser of that pairing is likely the 1st wild card team (5th seed). Honestly, I do not see a scenario (barring a spate of catstrophic injuries to the Cardinals or the Rams) where Washington has a chance of catching either team. LA Rams Currently: second in the West by 2.5 games; 3.0 games ahead of Washington Tiebreaker: Teams do not play --> Conference record: LA Rams = 5-2 and Washington = 4-2; LA Rams owns conference record tiebreaker Commentary: See Arizona commentary. San Francisco Currently: third in the West by 2.0 games; 1.0 games ahead of Washington Tiebreaker: Teams do not play --> Conference record: Washington = 4-2 and San Francisco = 4-4; Washington owns conference record tiebreaker Commentary: If the ayoffsplays were today, San Francisco would be the 7th seed. They are certainly in realm of possible targets. Given their conference record, Washington looks to be in good position relative to the 49ers. Seattle Currently: fourth in the West; 1.0 games behind Washington Tiebreaker: playing on Monday Commentary: I am not sure what is going on with Seattle now that Russell Wilson back. I had expected them to put a definite fight against Arizona and their "roll over and die" loss knocked me out of the Survivor Pool (I knew I should have switched to the Chargers). The Monday Football game against Seattle is key because of the possibility to further improve their conference record as well as their common games scenario with Minnesota. A failed-loss would put them in really good position whereas the alternative would be a substantial set back. Desired Week 12 Results Key Games on Thanksgiving Las Vegas over Dallas -- yes! Buffalo over New Orleans -- yes! Key Games on Sunday NY Giants over Philadelphia San Francisco over Minnesota Green Bay over LA Rams Other Games involving the NFC Detroit over Chicago -- oh well Indianapolis over Tampa Bay Miami over Carolina Jacksonville over Atlanta (1) Yes, you read that correctly: "ayoffsplay." (2) Yes, you read that correctly as well: "fail-to-lose" (verb) or "failed-loss" (noun) (3) The addition of the 17th game means that AFC games now matter a bit more than they used to. Prior to this season, a W or L to an AFC team didn't take effect until the strength of victory tiebreaker. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 This makes my head hurt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 On 11/27/2021 at 3:00 PM, Woz said: Desired Week 12 Results Key Games on Thanksgiving Las Vegas over Dallas -- yes! Buffalo over New Orleans -- yes! Key Games on Sunday NY Giants over Philadelphia San Francisco over Minnesota Green Bay over LA Rams Other Games involving the NFC Detroit over Chicago -- oh well Indianapolis over Tampa Bay Miami over Carolina Jacksonville over Atlanta Except for the bolded, this went pretty much to script. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted November 30, 2021 Share Posted November 30, 2021 Oops, wrong thread! 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 So, Optimists are riding high right now. As @Thaiphoon said, it almost went perfectly (cannot expect much of anything from Jacksonville and Indy almost pulled off the upset). Rooting Interests for Week 13 Arizona at Chicago Green Bay -- bye Tampa Bay at Atlanta Dallas at New Orleans (TNF, this is the biggest one) LA Rams vs Jacksonville (yeah, I know) San Francisco at Seattle Minnesota at Detroit Atlanta vs Tampa Bay (this would be the second biggest one (well, behind the Jaguars but even an Optimist has to have some dose of reality)) New Orleans vs Dallas Philadelphia at NY Jets Carolina -- bye NY Giants at Miami Chicago vs Arizona Seattle vs San Francisco Detroit vs Minnesota Beyond the explicitly called out AFC games above, an Optimist might want to root for these four teams. They will only matter on the 5th tiebreaker (strength of schedule) since they all defeated Washington and thus would not help in the common games (3rd tiebreaker) or strength of victory (4th). Buffalo over New England Denver is playing Kansas City, so it is a wash LA Chargers over Cincinnati Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 You missed #7 @Woz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
offbyone Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 We can thin out the herd at least. If I had to pick 3 on this list that were possible it is: Miami, Tampa and Jets winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 On 11/29/2021 at 6:12 PM, Thaiphoon said: This makes my head hurt I know, I don’t know how Woz does these things without going insane. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thaiphoon Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 2 hours ago, turtle28 said: I know, I don’t know how Woz does these things without going insane. How do you know that @Wozisn't? I mean, he does do the Survivor pool each year. You think a man with all his faculties would consistently do that each year? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aceinthehouse Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 On 11/30/2021 at 9:06 PM, Woz said: So, Optimists are riding high right now. As @Thaiphoon said, it almost went perfectly (cannot expect much of anything from Jacksonville and Indy almost pulled off the upset). Rooting Interests for Week 13 Arizona at Chicago Green Bay -- bye Tampa Bay at Atlanta Dallas at New Orleans (TNF, this is the biggest one) LA Rams vs Jacksonville (yeah, I know) San Francisco at Seattle Minnesota at Detroit Atlanta vs Tampa Bay (this would be the second biggest one (well, behind the Jaguars but even an Optimist has to have some dose of reality)) New Orleans vs Dallas Philadelphia at NY Jets Carolina -- bye NY Giants at Miami Chicago vs Arizona Seattle vs San Francisco Detroit vs Minnesota Beyond the explicitly called out AFC games above, an Optimist might want to root for these four teams. They will only matter on the 5th tiebreaker (strength of schedule) since they all defeated Washington and thus would not help in the common games (3rd tiebreaker) or strength of victory (4th). Buffalo over New England Denver is playing Kansas City, so it is a wash LA Chargers over Cincinnati I would root for Arizona over Chicago. Arizona is getting in. We need Chicago to drop games. Same with Tampa vs Atlanta. Would rather Atlanta be eliminated early. Even if we own the head-to- head tie breaker over both these teams. Brady is making playoffs. Would rather know Atlanta has no shot of a better record than us All the others I agree with. The only real tough call is the Dallas/Saints game. We always want Dallas to lose. Plus, we still have a shot at the division vs them. However, we lose the tiebreaker over Saints vs head-to-head for wc spot. Either outcome is problem good for us, so long as we keep winning. Which we will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 11/30/2021 at 11:37 PM, Thaiphoon said: You missed #7 @Woz Did I? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 12/1/2021 at 6:09 AM, turtle28 said: I know, I don’t know how Woz does these things without going insane. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 12/1/2021 at 8:16 AM, Thaiphoon said: How do you know that @Wozisn't? I mean, he does do the Survivor pool each year. You think a man with all his faculties would consistently do that each year? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woz Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 6:52 AM, aceinthehouse said: I would root for Arizona over Chicago. Arizona is getting in. We need Chicago to drop games. An Optimist wants the optay eedsay available. As it stands right now, Chicago the second worst conference record amongst teams that would be thinking about the ayoffplays (2-4, only Atlanta is worse as 2-5 and Washington has the iebreakertay over them). So, Chicago dropping games (currently 14th at 4-7) should be a very low desire. On 12/2/2021 at 6:52 AM, aceinthehouse said: Same with Tampa vs Atlanta. Would rather Atlanta be eliminated early. Even if we own the head-to- head tie breaker over both these teams. Brady is making playoffs. Would rather know Atlanta has no shot of a better record than us Again, if you are truly an Optimist, you might care about inningway the ivisionday and thus the possible eedsay matchup between Washington and Tampa Bay. As an Optimist, you have to consider not just entry but where they stand amongst the teams. On 12/2/2021 at 6:52 AM, aceinthehouse said: The only real tough call is the Dallas/Saints game. We always want Dallas to lose. Plus, we still have a shot at the division vs them. However, we lose the tiebreaker over Saints vs head-to-head for wc spot. Had the Saints not lost, we could have gotten back into the mix very easily. They are now in the "had playoff hopes but are now in a tailspin because they are having throw random bodies at the QB position in hopes of anything happening." I think we all know how that feels. (see: 2019 season) On 12/2/2021 at 6:52 AM, aceinthehouse said: Either outcome is problem good for us, so long as we keep winning. Which we will. There's the Optimist mindset! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ripsean21 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 So the thing I see when I look at this team is we have a few actual studs we have some key players that any given week can flash but are steady and good. We have solid depth and we’re getting really good OL coaching here I personally see this by improved play from key veteran players that didn’t play to these levels elsewhere. OL play is critical. If is falters teams generally fallow suit. that said we can upgrade the talent at a few critical roster spots this offseason. We could improve OL,CB,LB,QB. I like Taylor he’s the starter. If we were picking in the teens or 20’s and Matt Corral was there I’d probably turn that card in because this draft class might go against conventional wisdom and not push QB up. That’s because there is a ton of top end defenders at Edge, LB, CB and elite level OL and playmakers. So I’m starting to see scenarios where QB becomes a value in the latter half of the first round. That said if the NCST OL is there when we pick and One of the top CB’s or the LB’s arent there I’d run that card in. He’s a blue chip OL talent. That said this season is far from over. We have a big game against LV because if they can find a way to win we are in real range to control this season destiny with a unheard of 5 game divisional game slate. I think this is a hard thing and I think it’s a unheard of situation. If we can win today and get Sweat back for those 5 games we are in a real spot to show what we have. So if they can stay healthy and continue fighting like a team on all 3 sides of the game and we have a shot. There’s a ton of opportunities for guys to earn and keep spots. But we can improve spots this offseason and I hope the draft falls and we improve key spots where upgrades would be critical to us being closer to legit contender besides being a tough well coached team. There’s a difference. Right now we’re just tough. With upgrades at key spots this team can be a lot closer to the better teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.