BDL 2021 Semi-Final Round - #6 Death Valley Nightmare @ #4 Camden Hood Rats

[Jlash]

23 minutes ago, Scoundrel said:

Phone dying I’m voting for DV and I’ll explain later. 

[RuskieTitan]

Both teams with talent and gameplans worthy of the semis. Ultimately I like Camden's offensive gameplan a bit more, and with their receivers I think they're able to take it at home.

[VigilantZombie]

Congrats @Jlash

[Jlash]

Just now, wwhickok said:

Congrats @Jlash

Hey don't give up yet we still have time and votes.

[VigilantZombie]

Just now, Jlash said:

Hey don't give up yet we still have time and votes.

I mean there is, for sure and if it changes, I'd be ecstatic. I'm not giving up. I'm just offering something that if it doesn't end differently, you deserve completely 

[Jlash]

1 minute ago, wwhickok said:

I mean there is, for sure and if it changes, I'd be ecstatic. I'm not giving up. I'm just offering something that if it doesn't end differently, you deserve completely 

Im also grateful either way. This year has been fantastic. I had to make some decisions and I can't second guess myself. I told you time and time again when you took tough losses that you had one of the top rosters in the league and I meant it.

[VigilantZombie]

4 minutes ago, Jlash said:

Im also grateful either way. This year has been fantastic. I had to make some decisions and I can't second guess myself. I told you time and time again when you took tough losses that you had one of the top rosters in the league and I meant it.

Wouldn't have wanted this game to be against any other opponent.

[Jlash]

19 minutes ago, wwhickok said:

Congrats @Jlash

got 2 votes in the last 3 minutes. Congrats bud.

[VigilantZombie]

2 minutes ago, Jlash said:

got 2 votes in the last 3 minutes. Congrats bud.

I honest to God thought the voting was done when I said congrats. 

Man, thank you. It was an absolute honor to play you in this game. 

[WFLukic]

On 12/20/2021 at 6:28 AM, Whicker said:

We are taking a run first approach to this game with a ball control/clock control mentality to keep the playmakers of Camden on the sidelines. We will use Darrell Williams in the passing game and run game in relief of Kamara and occasionally in a 2 RB set. 

Curious choice - I'd just stick with Kamara for passing downs. He brings down the quality of your passing attack every time someone is in.

We will also use 2 TE sets we will both pass and run, we will use Conklin & Knox in the passing game on seam routes and shallow in and out routes. In the run game we will use Knox and Conklin to open up run lanes for Kamara.

I like 2 TE with Kamara - Can very easily split Knox or Kamara out wide without sacrificing much in a passing sense and generate some mismatches. 

In the passing game, other than the formations listed above, We will use 3WR & 4WR sets. We will use Kirk in the slot as normal, in 4 WR sets We are going to use Kamara both in the backfield and in the passing game. We will split Kamara out wide at times in pass oriented plays and use Knox as a blocker. When we are using Kamara in the backfield we will split Knox out wide.

We are going to press the Defense on deep routes with Parker and Gallup, we will run a lot of intermediate routes. I want to run a lot of slants, corner and post routes and we will use double moves to create space for the receivers.

Using the right guys in the right capacity I suppose. Would like a bit more detail in what specific match-ups you're trying to exploit though and what specific areas of the field you're going to target. 

Defensive Gameplan 

So that brings me to the 2nd option they have and that is a run heavy offense which I think is more likely the primary attack they will choose.

I can see why you would think they may do this to catch you off guard, but an Ekeler and Michel backfield isn't going to be one that they try and ram down your throat - especially against a DL as good as yours. Anyway, we'll see what Camden did but an odd thing to anticipate.

So first of all to address the possible spread offense;  I will in this situation run a nickel defense, the lone Inside linebacker will be Jeremy Chinn, I will match CBs for WRs and have 2 Safeties, both will play deeper intermediate to deep coverage to avoid allowing receivers to get behind us. 

5 pass-rushers? I assume this is 3 CB, 2S, 1 LB, 2 Edge and 3DL? Ryan isn't mobile so I guess there's no threat of him scrambling and generating pressure on him will get you turnovers. Ertz is really good at finding soft spots and Ekeler could definitely burn you here. 

Against a 5 wide receiver set Jeremy Chinn will be the only linebacker on the field. Against 4 wide receivers at Brian Burns will also be on the field and he will rush the passer to create pressure and hopefully create  untimely throws.

This won't happen much anyway so I'm not going to factor it in, but I'm going to assume you're going cover-1 man. Safety stays back, safety moves out into coverage & 4 CBs? 4 then rushing the passer? For your benefit I think it's easier just to leave it to the voter to think what happens in 5 wide scenarios and having enough CBs on the bench to match up. 

For every less receiver on the field a linebacker will come on. Now one thing not particularly mentioned here is that we will be paying close attention to where the tight end is lined up. If the Tight End is spread out away from the edge of the offensive  line we are going to treat him like a wide receiver. If he is close in at the edge of the offensive line we are going to treat him like a blocker. However if we start to notice that Camden is moving the tight end inside to take advantage of potential mismatches in in the passing game we will then start using more pass coverage against him to negate this as an in game adjustment.

Fair enough, need to be mindful of who you're covering Ertz with though. 

Against heavy sets we will also run a heavy set. We are bringing Devin Bush back in for this game because of his ability in coverage. Zaven Collins who really hasn't had a major impact this season is not up for this game instead we have brought an extra defense of alignment to keep the front 3 fresh.

We will utilize Xavier Woods primarily in coverage but occasionally in the box to help defend the running game. McKinney will be focused in coverage. Brandon Jones will be utilizing to keep the Starters fresh with occasional (but rare) breather snaps. We will use Jeremy Chinn to help corral the running back.  It is possible that Austin Ekeler may be a bit slower this week due to an ankle injury however we are treating him as though he is a 100% healthy because I feel strongly that is a best approach Is to being able to limit what he is able to do.  Likewise with Damien Harris officially out this week we expect Sony Michel to be the next man up.

We expect Kupp to have a significant presence in the middle of the field and in 3WR sets or above; We will bracket Kupp and Evans with a safety each on top of corner coverage single cover Boyd and have Chinn cover the Running back

Probably wouldn't have committed to bracketing them, but this is a reasonable way of doing things. I'd even have considered Slay on Evans which is a neutral match and just allocating a double to Kupp. 

Zach Ertz will see coverage against a CB and/or, [see above for personnel groupings] Devin Bush we expect to see him on cross formation routes and seam routes. We will approach Everett the same way as we will have a heavier set on the field typically in 2 TE sets. Our DBs, LBS, & Safeties will shift and adjust coverage assignments based on who is on the field and what formation they're using to make sure everyone in the passing game has coverage.

Appears this is man - would like you being more specific in terms of coverage. 

Against the run game our plan is to 'seek and destroy'. We want our defense maintaining gap integrity and shadowing the ball carrier. We want him/them moving east and west or backwards but never forward.  We want to essentially force them to become one dimensional by eliminating successful runs. 

Matt Ryan, while he can run,

Averages 6 rushing yards per game for his career and is now 36. He can't run haha.

is more of a pocket passer. It's not impossible they start Baker (if he is cleared) or Fields and if so, well one isn't very healthy and the other is prone to turning the ball over.  We want to get after Ryan, who we believe will start. Force bad throws and get a couple of turnovers to turn the tide of this game and get them playing from behind. Ryan really struggles in these situations and almost plays a panicky type of football which usually results in more mistakes.

We plan to rush with 4 guys for the majority of the game and occasionally to keep the offense guessing we will send an all out blitz. We want our defense hitting the running backs hard, we want them to feel the injuries they dared play with.

Going to double back to what you said earlier - it sounds like you're going to have 5 edge/DL on the field, but rush 4? Something not adding up with personnel here. With that said pressuring Ryan is the right idea - all out blitzes, stunts and even rushing 5. Letting him sit in a clean pocket against guys who can get open isn't a great idea so putting him off his game is the right thing to do. 

 

 

 

Offense
We take on a DV squad this week that has persevered through some massive injuries to make it this far. The strength of DV is its defense so we need to be smart in how we attack it to neutralize its strengths.

Keep DE's in conflict with RPO- To me, the biggest strength of this DV team is its pass rushers because Burns and Crosby can bring heat. They aren't incredible run players though so we think we can force them into conflict by running a lot to the outsides to test their discipline and wear them down, and then by running a decent amount (65-70% or so) of our passing plays off of RPO with Ryan in shotgun. We think this will cause major disruption in what we're sure will be a focal point of the DV defense to get to Ryan. 

Yep - DV's edge rush is nasty and holding them off any way possible is a good move. 

Test CB depth- So first we thought of a way to attack the strength of DV, now we look for a way to attack what we consider its weakness, and thats the CB play. Having the two league leading TD scorers at WR gives us confidence against any group but we feel beyond Slay today, that we've got big advantages all across the board in our matchups. We'll run 3 wide virtually all game, moving our guys around to get a sense of what the defense is doing coverage wise, but also to find matchups that we like best. Kupp will do a lot of work from the inside, and he'll get heavy targets in single coverage. We'll run some 4 wide stuff with bunch sets with Kupp in trips and Evans on the opposite side so DV has to choose who to focus on solely without me lumping them together. This can also help us get the ball into Kupp's hands quicker on some quick screens with bigger WR's blocking in front of him. Evans is going to be huge for us as a chain mover and major red zone threat. We'll look to take advantage of a double move or two with our RPO's running to get some deep shots to Evans also.

Fair enough but DV came out with double coverage for Kupp and Evans which is a big limiter.  I think there needed to be more of a focus on getting the ball to Ekeler and Ertz underneath which DV didn't seem as prepared for. DV kind of recognised this and mitigated the risk by going with doubles on them. 

Protecting Ryan- Since we respect DV's pass rush we know RPOs alone simply won't stop them, and while we like our tackle duo more than most our RBs and TE's will be used as safety valves/blockers for Ryan. One way is TEs can chip before they get out into their short routes and sit in zones for Ryan, and the other way is our RB's can stay in and protect Ryan, while sometimes slipping out into delayed angle routes and outlet passes after helping chip as well. 

Yep - short passes and chipping help - smart move. I think the only real play against DV's D is to beat them with a running QB or death by a thousand cuts. This works for the latter.

Defense (3 safety cover 1 shell) thank you
DV started the year as a ground and pound team (rightfully so) but has had to make some adjustments due to personnel issues. They can create some unique situations so being creative is key to beating them.

Kamara Spy- Alvin Kamara is the engine of this offense, plain and simple. No matter if WW wants to spread us out with 4 wide, or play power football with 2 TE's if you can slow down Kamara you can take away the one tried and true game breaker he has. We don't feel there are many LB's who can handle him all game, and certainly not on our roster even with Leonard. So we're turning to Amani Hooker, a guy who was a hybrid S/CB/LB his final year at Iowa who excelled in that role and has 4.4 wheels to boot. We'll let Leonard worry about the TE. Kamara is at his best and most dangerous in space, while he's a guy who can carry between the tackles we aren't overly concerned about that. We think replacing a traditional LB with Hooker to spy Kamara all game gives us our best bet to minimize his damage this game. If DV wants to go two TEs, a corner will come off the field for a LB but Hookers role remains, and the same is true if DV goes 4 or 5 wide, the appropriate personnel will be brought in but Hooker's focus is Kamara.

Talked about creativity and did something pretty clever. Really like this. Don't think anyone can hang with Kamara, but Hooker is a great choice to be deployed in such a role. 

Cover 1/Robber's role- Our usual cover 1 will be our main shell today, because we have the personnel to be able stay flexible with our robber and that gives us the best bet to cause havoc. That role will fall mainly to Eric Rowe today with Reid out. Rowe will spend a lot of time moving up into the box after the snap to jump into quick passing lanes that Stafford may rely on as a safety valve, help defend the run game and also to throw blitzes at Stafford. Our high safety will shade a hair towards Parker since DV likes to send him deep more often. If DV wants to spread the field and keep sending lots of guys deep we can revert to a more traditional cover 2 look, which works for us anyway because that'll be our 1b coverage look to our cover 1 since they look identical at the snap. 

Reid out sucks here, not sure Rowe can be the guy he is. But nailed Parker going deep. 

Pressuring Stafford- Every team wants to pressure every QB they face and this is no different. No QB likes to get hit. We think our edge rushers could make an impact in this game, especially if we work some stunts to the inside if Dion Dawkins in fact misses this game. We won't stunt inside a ton because of how dangerous Kamara is to the outside, but if Dawkins is out expect a couple stunts sent at his replacement. If DV decides to attack our edges via run, we'll sub in Montez Sweat aka patient zero who is a strong run player but can also generate some heat on Stafford in place of Ngakoue.

Dawkins was out and Connor Williams is pretty meh. I can see this working a bit. 

Great job both guys. Two very good teams and deserving of being here. 

In terms of the gameplan, Camden get the edge here. It was clean, nothing I really disagreed with, may have done a few things differently myself and gotten a little more creative on offense or attacked the underneath with the non-Kupp/Evans weapon. DV on the other hand left me a few questions in terms of how they were planning to run that defense out. Probably not fatal though given they identified the (obvious) threats and accounted for them well.  On the other side of the ball, kind of curious decision to involve Darrell Williams as Kamara is one of the greatest two-way backs in league history. Kamara-stopper was fun, rest of the Ds for both otherwise standard. 

In terms of personnel - I think there's a bit of an edge for DV. No real weaknesses in the team apart from CB depth. A better QB than Ryan perhaps takes advantage by extending plays as the pass-rush gets down on him, but I think this is the point where the difference between him and the other QBs left in the BDL becomes a bit more apparent. 

In the end I'm going with DV here. Everyone of their weapons has a worse QB than Stafford except Knox, while everyone of Camden's weapons has a better QB than Ryan (though Ryans offense right now is kind of a mess). I think Stafford elevates them and his combination with Kamara in the backfield who's looking good is able to keep them consistently moving the ball along against a good Camden D. While Camden starts off better with a stronger gameplan initially, moving the ball against a defense who started off confused, I think consecutive games of high intensity hurts Camden while DV begin to mount a comeback and with one last opportunity, Stafford engineers a drive downfield to get the win. 

DV 20 - 17 Camden

[Jlash]

6 votes in this match up (aside from game plan writers, we're voting for ourselves obviously) that didn't have explanations for their votes. Now, it doesn't matter because you can say whatever you want, but with only two gameplans to go through it's not too much to ask.

[Ragnarok]

Voted at the end for DV.  Camden is very good and had a very good gameplan.  But I think DV has more top to bottom talent and their gameplan was solid as well.  Its a dead heat here.

I agree with Lukic in that I think it comes down to the QB play.  I think Stafford makes a couple more throws than Ryan in the 4th.

[Jlash]

Just now, Ragnarok said:

Voted at the end for DV

[Scoundrel]

1 hour ago, Jlash said:

6 votes in this match up (aside from game plan writers, we're voting for ourselves obviously) that didn't have explanations for their votes. Now, it doesn't matter because you can say whatever you want, but with only two gameplans to go through it's not too much to ask.

So I’m charging my phone now and I have both games a lot of thought.

For me the bracketing both Kupp and Evans pays off for DV. Ryan struggles when his top targets are limited. Now these are two of the best in the league  and I think they still have production for Camden but I don’t see it being enough to match Stafford and Kamara as I mentioned previously the light box which Camden said they would prefer I still believe they would pay for it here and there. I think Jlash is one of if not the best gameplanner but I liked the DV personnel more and I don’t think there was enough of an edge in gameplan for Jlash in this one to make up for the difference there. This would be an incredibly close match. Congrats to you both for a hard fought game.

[Jlash]

6 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

So I’m charging my phone now and I have both games a lot of thought.

For me the bracketing both Kupp and Evans pays off for DV. Ryan struggles when his top targets are limited. Now these are two of the best in the league  and I think they still have production for Camden but I don’t see it being enough to match Stafford and Kamara as I mentioned previously the light box which Camden said they would prefer I still believe they would pay for it here and there. I think Jlash is one of if not the best gameplanner but I liked the DV personnel more and I don’t think there was enough of an edge in gameplan for Jlash in this one to make up for the difference there. This would be an incredibly close match. Congrats to you both for a hard fought game.

You did so much breaking down of each game plan you blew out your phone! All good.