SkippyX Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 hours ago, Thelonebillsfan said: Andy Dalton had an outside shot at being league MVP in 2015 before he got hurt he was absolutely worth that spot. 2015 Dalton was a 140+ rated QB in 2 games vs 3-13 Cleveland 3rd worst passing D in the league - Don't look directly at the 2015 Saints passing D, it will give you nightmares His other 11 games were pro bowl level but not MVP level. (many very good, several hideous) A well below league average 2nd year AJ McCarron was a 97.1 rated passer in 3 starts replacing Dalton, including taking the SB Champs to OT. Both had 30+ passes vs Pittsburgh: Dalton low 60s rating and McCarron 90.6 If all you have is 12 games and 5 attempts in 2015 leading to the 46th best passer rating season then you don't have much. Dalton was the 14th to 20th best QB most years. He was always the 12th best out of 12 when the playoffs rolled around. He threw as many playoff TDs to JJ Watt as to Bengals (in 4 games) Two games against Cleveland in 2015 don't make him better than mediocre. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ochocinco4pres Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Andy Dalton absolutely justified his draft spot. He took his team to the playoffs his first 5 years in the league. Yes he didn't win any, but any team picking a QB at the start of the 2nd round who is able to do that would be ecstatic. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 13 minutes ago, ochocinco4pres said: Andy Dalton absolutely justified his draft spot. He took his team to the playoffs his first 5 years in the league. Yes he didn't win any, but any team picking a QB at the start of the 2nd round who is able to do that would be ecstatic. overachieved tbh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 (edited) When talking about draft slot only: Dalton and Carr arguably overachieved. Carr was under-drafted, imo. Dalton was average at worst for most of his career, more than a lot of guys can say, and never really was "bad". Jimmy had some hype heading into the draft. He's justified his spot. He's a worthy starter in the right systems. Not stellar, but solid. McCoy is a long term backup. Same for Brissett. Perfectly fine for a pair of 3rd rounders. They're justified. The only one that never really has is Bridgewater. A lot of that has to do with injuries and bouncing around so much. I'd say he didn't live up to his draft slot, but I'd caveat that with I think he would have had things not gone so bad early on in the injury department. Edited January 21, 2022 by ronjon1990 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ochocinco4pres Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 hours ago, SBLIII said: overachieved tbh ok, but still justified his draft spot of early 2nd round. They had a bad roster and the 4th overall pick. he played well enough to get to 5 straight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBLIII Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, ochocinco4pres said: ok, but still justified his draft spot of early 2nd round. They had a bad roster and the 4th overall pick. he played well enough to get to 5 straight. yeah, I meant he played like a first round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Aside from Dalton not having a soul, he absolutely justified his draft spot. So did Carr and Jimmy G. 2nd round QBs arent necessarily expected to be top end franchise guys. They are more expected to be solid QBs you can win with, and everything else is gravy. If Derek Carr went to a more stable franchise, I think he would get alot more credit. Dalton faded over the years, but he was a very solid QB his first 5 to 7 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ochocinco4pres Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 hour ago, SBLIII said: yeah, I meant he played like a first round pick. oh sorry. I misinterpreted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jraider91 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 People still really dramatically overrate draft picks huh? If you draft a QB in the 2nd round and they are a competent starter that is a major win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-mac Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 13 hours ago, Jraider91 said: People still really dramatically overrate draft picks huh? If you draft a QB in the 2nd round and they are a competent starter that is a major win. That's kinda the point of this thread. I'm trying to work out what you can expect to get from a QB drafted in a particular section of the draft. I'll caveat this by saying that there are total busts drafted in each part of the draft (around 50% of the time), but my conclusion is that if you draft a player in the following areas of the draft AND it goes to plan, this is what you get: Top half of the first round: High upside starting QB, top 10-12 in the league if not potentially elite Bottom half of the first round/early second: Decent to low-end starting QB Bottom half of the second round/early third: Good career backup QB, or one who can start in a pinch (e.g., Brissett) This can help me assign grades to the QBs in this year's draft. It's a weak QB class, but I think guys like Sam Howell and Matt Corral could be in the league for a decade as very competent backup QBs, so I've been struggling with where to put them. In that case, I think I'll be giving them high 3rd round grades. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jraider91 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 38 minutes ago, paul-mac said: That's kinda the point of this thread. I'm trying to work out what you can expect to get from a QB drafted in a particular section of the draft. I'll caveat this by saying that there are total busts drafted in each part of the draft (around 50% of the time), but my conclusion is that if you draft a player in the following areas of the draft AND it goes to plan, this is what you get: Top half of the first round: High upside starting QB, top 10-12 in the league if not potentially elite Bottom half of the first round/early second: Decent to low-end starting QB Bottom half of the second round/early third: Good career backup QB, or one who can start in a pinch (e.g., Brissett) This can help me assign grades to the QBs in this year's draft. It's a weak QB class, but I think guys like Sam Howell and Matt Corral could be in the league for a decade as very competent backup QBs, so I've been struggling with where to put them. In that case, I think I'll be giving them high 3rd round grades. Yeah I think that is fair, the line between quality backup and decent starter is quite blurred and depends largely on supporting cast imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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