2017-18 | CFC Fantasy Questions & Advice

[keysersoze3421]

CFC, guide me on my first pick in my keeper league.  14-team PPR, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Flex/K/D.  I'm picking on the snake 14-15.  Keeping: Melvin Gordon (1.14), Jordy Nelson (6.1), and Martavis Bryant (11.14).  The conundrum is who to take at 2.1.  These are my best guesses of which players will be there at that pick:

QB: all (reluctant)

RB: Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette

WR: Amari Cooper, Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas

TE: all but Gronk (also reluctant)

 

If any of the guys I'm projecting to go picks 1-13 falls to me, I'm pretty confident I will take one of them, but if I end up in this situation, who do I go with?

[ny92mike]

20 minutes ago, keysersoze3421 said:

Check out FFToday.com.  They have sortable fantasy stats from last year for standard and PPR.

Thanks man, exactly what I was looking for.  Didn't ESPN provide this last year?  Either way I appreciate you posting the link.

 

Thanks again

[squire12]

2 hours ago, keysersoze3421 said:

CFC, guide me on my first pick in my keeper league.  14-team PPR, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Flex/K/D.  I'm picking on the snake 14-15.  Keeping: Melvin Gordon (1.14), Jordy Nelson (6.1), and Martavis Bryant (11.14).  The conundrum is who to take at 2.1.  These are my best guesses of which players will be there at that pick:

QB: all (reluctant)

RB: Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette

WR: Amari Cooper, Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas

TE: all but Gronk (also reluctant)

 

If any of the guys I'm projecting to go picks 1-13 falls to me, I'm pretty confident I will take one of them, but if I end up in this situation, who do I go with?

Mixon would be pretty hard to pass up there.  That gives you to solid RB's and great keeper options for RB in future seasons.  Nelson at WR1 is a great start.   I feel that having to start 2 RB in a 14-team league just screams of getting a 2nd RB early on.   Waiting until your 3rd pick means the options will be very depleted.  

As for the WR,  I would rank them Baldwin, Cooper, Hopkins, DT.   Though the 1-3 of that group are pretty close.  Cooper and Baldwin have the better QB, vs Hopkins, but Hopkins is the main target in HOU.  

[keysersoze3421]

4 hours ago, squire12 said:

Mixon would be pretty hard to pass up there.  That gives you to solid RB's and great keeper options for RB in future seasons.  Nelson at WR1 is a great start.   I feel that having to start 2 RB in a 14-team league just screams of getting a 2nd RB early on.   Waiting until your 3rd pick means the options will be very depleted.  

As for the WR,  I would rank them Baldwin, Cooper, Hopkins, DT.   Though the 1-3 of that group are pretty close.  Cooper and Baldwin have the better QB, vs Hopkins, but Hopkins is the main target in HOU.  

Thanks for the answer. Whoever I take at 2.1 has no keeper implications. 

[CentralFC]

On 7/30/2017 at 11:46 AM, keysersoze3421 said:

CFC, guide me on my first pick in my keeper league.  14-team PPR, QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE/Flex/K/D.  I'm picking on the snake 14-15.  Keeping: Melvin Gordon (1.14), Jordy Nelson (6.1), and Martavis Bryant (11.14).  The conundrum is who to take at 2.1.  These are my best guesses of which players will be there at that pick:

QB: all (reluctant)

RB: Lamar Miller, Todd Gurley, Joe Mixon, Leonard Fournette

WR: Amari Cooper, Doug Baldwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Demaryius Thomas

TE: all but Gronk (also reluctant)

 

If any of the guys I'm projecting to go picks 1-13 falls to me, I'm pretty confident I will take one of them, but if I end up in this situation, who do I go with?

Haven't been posting much on the new forum. Need to start!

Joe Mixon is your answer, but Doug Baldwin has a strong argument. Having the consistency of a Baldwin/Nelson duo would hedge against any drop-off from Gordon. 

[CentralFC]

Just seeing squire's post now -- great minds.

[keysersoze3421]

On 8/5/2017 at 0:36 PM, CentralFC said:

Haven't been posting much on the new forum. Need to start!

Joe Mixon is your answer, but Doug Baldwin has a strong argument. Having the consistency of a Baldwin/Nelson duo would hedge against any drop-off from Gordon. 

Your answer is the same knowing I can only have this player for the 2017 season?  I'm wondering now if Gronk may make it to me, in which case he's hard to pass up, but in the mocks I've done I don't like my team nearly as much going TE that early.  

[CentralFC]

Personally I think going Gordon-Gronk back to back presents a variety of risks. Especially in rounds 1-2. Those picks are so critical to hit on.

 

Payoff is huge if RG plays 14+ games. But I tend to think the Baldwin-Nelson combination would be a safer investment with the added payoff of stability (and equally reliable quarterback chemistry). 

 

I wouldn't fault the more aggressive move but it's not my MO. 

[CentralFC]

Relatedly I think the TE class is a bit deeper this year than in recent memory. Particularly in the PPR formats with low-cost options like Rudolph, Hooper, Eifert, Walker, Bennett, and Ertz, to name a few. 

Would go RB/WR in rounds 3-4, and then you've set your team down a balanced path.

 

[keysersoze3421]

1 hour ago, CentralFC said:

Relatedly I think the TE class is a bit deeper this year than in recent memory. Particularly in the PPR formats with low-cost options like Rudolph, Hooper, Eifert, Walker, Bennett, and Ertz, to name a few. 

Would go RB/WR in rounds 3-4, and then you've set your team down a balanced path.

 

Yeah, good call.  I think Baldwin is creeping up on my radar.

Other keeper league, I can keep 3 players.  Thinking about the following three (it's 10-team PPR with 18 rounds):

Jordy Nelson (7th)

Jay Ajayi (11th)

Ty Montgomery (14th)

Would you sub Montgomery out for any of the following?

Kyle Rudolph, Tyreek Hill, or Tyrell Williams - (all cost 14th too)

[CentralFC]

I would move Monty due to the risk. The sickle cell isn't going away, and Williams has flashed in camp as a sturdy pass-protector. Williams should be able to handle a feature workload, whereas Monty, from what I've seen to this point, fits best as a complementary piece. In full PPR formats, he absolutely has a spot in most starting lineups. He's a matchup nightmare. But the problem with that is that he's likely going to be deployed intermittently, as opposed to on a week-by-week basis. It's a matchup league and McCarthy's proven he's not interested in breaking down Monty in order to squeeze out a few more carries. Seriously -- look at his game log down the stretch in 2016 despite Green Bay having zero serviceable options. He had double digit carries once. In Monty's case, I also think the sickle cell is inflamed a bit more in colder weather games. I see him as a 150 carry back who adds 50-55 receptions and 6-8 total touchdowns. But never a bell cow. He's having troubles in pass protection and that's going to cap his productivity regardless of what he does with his snaps.

In his place, Hill gives you the benefit of being the de facto #1 option. I doubt he's as dominant as he was a year ago, but he's primed again for 1,000 total yards and 7-9 touchdowns. I worry about him being the sole option though. He's not your typical boundary receiver, and he's not used a ton over the middle. Smith also has troubles moving the ball deep. So Hill's situation is murky but the upside is high. 

In my eyes, the risk with Monty is higher than with Hill, but the full-PPR format gives me pause. Personally, I go Hill, simply because I think Ajayi is already a major question mark and doubling down on the red flags at RB might be too risky for me.

[keysersoze3421]

19 minutes ago, CentralFC said:

I would move Monty due to the risk. The sickle cell isn't going away, and Williams has flashed in camp as a sturdy pass-protector. Williams should be able to handle a feature workload, whereas Monty, from what I've seen to this point, fits best as a complementary piece. In full PPR formats, he absolutely has a spot in most starting lineups. He's a matchup nightmare. But the problem with that is that he's likely going to be deployed intermittently, as opposed to on a week-by-week basis. It's a matchup league and McCarthy's proven he's not interested in breaking down Monty in order to squeeze out a few more carries. Seriously -- look at his game log down the stretch in 2016 despite Green Bay having zero serviceable options. He had double digit carries once. In Monty's case, I also think the sickle cell is inflamed a bit more in colder weather games. I see him as a 150 carry back who adds 50-55 receptions and 6-8 total touchdowns. But never a bell cow. He's having troubles in pass protection and that's going to cap his productivity regardless of what he does with his snaps.

In his place, Hill gives you the benefit of being the de facto #1 option. I doubt he's as dominant as he was a year ago, but he's primed again for 1,000 total yards and 7-9 touchdowns. I worry about him being the sole option though. He's not your typical boundary receiver, and he's not used a ton over the middle. Smith also has troubles moving the ball deep. So Hill's situation is murky but the upside is high. 

In my eyes, the risk with Monty is higher than with Hill, but the full-PPR format gives me pause. Personally, I go Hill, simply because I think Ajayi is already a major question mark and doubling down on the red flags at RB might be too risky for me.

Well, it's highly likely that I can go with Murray, McCoy, Freeman, or someone like that in the first or second.  Most good players are going to be available.  I'm looking for some upside in the 14th round.  Hill I have no real interest in with Smith at QB.  His YPC was pathetic last year, and unless Mahomes steps in, which I doubt, I don't see much value in him.  Tyrell was my biggest counter to Montgomery.

[CentralFC]

I worry Williams isn't as good as we think he is. But I get your point with Hill. 

[Cadmus]

Need some dynasty advice. 

Total hypothetical.... 

14 Team Dynasty League. Standard Scoring. 

In this hypothetical situation I have 1.03, 1.09 and 1.14 

Who would you target at each spot? 

Thank you in advance Central. 

[Rockice_8]

On 7/27/2017 at 5:09 PM, The LBC said:

Well, since @keysersoze3421 isn't here yet and @CentralFC tends to answer questions posed to key in key's thread anyway...

I'm actually at a point where I'm questioning keeping Julio Jones in my 14-team PPR dynasty auction league.

 

Julio's price to keep goes up to $20 (out of a starting $200), whereas David Johnson (who I'm clearly keeping) is going to be one of my 2 keepers at $10.  Reason I'm considering letting Julio go is that I can keep Michael Thomas for $2 (and be able to get $7, $12, and even $17 keeper prices on him for the next three seasons after this one).

I'm just wanting to make sure that this doesn't sound insane.  Julio is a stud, but he and Ryan are regression candidates this year, and I don't know that the drop-off from Julio to Thomas is so severe that it's not justified by Thomas' longer-term viability (particularly since 2-3 more seasons of Thomas on the cheap makes DJ's escalating price - $15 next year, $20 the year after, $25 the year after that - a much easier pill to swallow).

Read an article the other day about the ATL new offense being more short passing.  Last year Jones made a big chunk of his points on the deep ball so he might not be a great fit for the new short passing game.  Take that for what it's worth since Julio can do pretty much whatever he wants on the football field when healthy.