Clean Roster: Josh Allen, A Rod or Pat Maholmes

[BigTrav]

I’ll pick the guy who’s the youngest ever to go to 3 straight CG

[SBLIII]

11 hours ago, Nightime said:

And if Mahomes keeps playing like he’s been in his last 2 games, then I don’t see how Allen can pass him. They both had 9 touchdowns in two playoff games

I don't think you are wrong at this moment.

[ThatJaxxenGuy]

It’s Mahomes by a wide margin though Josh Allen is a great QB.

[Jraider91]

Still Mahomes but he was horrendously bad from last play of 2nd Q onwards. Was beautiful to see.

[Billy86]

Depends on the team around them. 

Explosive playmaking offense? Mahomes. 

Technical, timing based offense? Rodgers. 

A mix of the two? Allen. 

Kind of a toss up in general though. The real answer is basically whoever wakes up on the right side of the bed that morning. 

[Soggust]

2 hours ago, Billy86 said:

Depends on the team around them. 

Explosive playmaking offense? Mahomes. 

Technical, timing based offense? Rodgers. 

A mix of the two? Allen. 

Kind of a toss up in general though. The real answer is basically whoever wakes up on the right side of the bed that morning. 

Apart from "he played well against the Chiefs", what's the argument to include Allen with Rodgers/Mahomes?

Rodgers and Mahomes are in the tier they are because they both have a SB and at least one MVP season. In fact, they each have one of the top 5ish passing seasons in NFL history, arguably. 

Allen is great and not to take anything away from him, but it seems pretty premature to include him in that group at this point. 

[The BILLievers]

31 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Apart from "he played well against the Chiefs", what's the argument to include Allen with Rodgers/Mahomes?

Rodgers and Mahomes are in the tier they are because they both have a SB and at least one MVP season. In fact, they each have one of the top 5ish passing seasons in NFL history, arguably. 

Allen is great and not to take anything away from him, but it seems pretty premature to include him in that group at this point. 

Not really he's been on par with Mahomes the past 2 NFL regular seasons. 

[Soggust]

3 minutes ago, The BILLievers said:

Not really he's been on par with Mahomes the past 2 NFL regular seasons. 

I actually agree with this (team success aside obviously), but my point is Mahomes wouldn't be considered Mahomes without 2018 so it's disingenuous to ignore that.

Without 2018, Mahomes is another Herbert/Allen/Russ Wilson. An absolute top tier franchise QB, but the argument to be included in the Rodgers/Brady tier gets really difficult.

The reason he is a tier above because he has shown a ceiling (and floor, quite frankly) that the second group simply hasn't, even if they've played as well recently.

[Mox]

20 minutes ago, Soggust said:

I actually agree with this (team success aside obviously), but my point is Mahomes wouldn't be considered Mahomes without 2018 so it's disingenuous to ignore that.

Without 2018, Mahomes is another Herbert/Allen/Russ Wilson. An absolute top tier franchise QB, but the argument to be included in the Rodgers/Brady tier gets really difficult.

The reason he is a tier above because he has shown a ceiling (and floor, quite frankly) that the second group simply hasn't, even if they've played as well recently.

The question literally asks "today" though. So past performance is irrelevant. Josh Allen looked like the best of the bunch this postseason. Not saying he's necessarily my pick but he's absolutely in the conversation.

[Soggust]

3 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

The question literally asks "today" though. So past performance is irrelevant. Josh Allen looked like the best of the bunch this postseason. Not saying he's necessarily my pick but he's absolutely in the conversation.

So when we think of who's going to give you the best chance to win next year, we ignore anything past two years? 

I don't mean that crassly, I mean it honestly. Like, I honestly don't think it's a super-unreasonable take to favor recency, although I certainly admit I favor careers, not just recency myself.

But even in that regard, I think it's an uphill argument because you have to argue that Mahomes' meltdown in the second half against the Bengals outweighs the fact he holds two playoff wins over Allen directly, a SB visit (in the last two years), and a SB win the year before. I keep hearing that Allen outplayed Mahomes in his loss, but I'm not really sure that's true. In Allen's absolute best performance, they both played fairly similarly, IMO, so where is he making up ground?

But with all that being said, I'll concede if you are projecting the next year chances based solely on the last two years of play, it's not offensive to have him in the discussion. 

[Mox]

46 minutes ago, Soggust said:

So when we think of who's going to give you the best chance to win next year, we ignore anything past two years? 

I don't mean that crassly, I mean it honestly. Like, I honestly don't think it's a super-unreasonable take to favor recency, although I certainly admit I favor careers, not just recency myself.

But even in that regard, I think it's an uphill argument because you have to argue that Mahomes' meltdown in the second half against the Bengals outweighs the fact he holds two playoff wins over Allen directly, a SB visit (in the last two years), and a SB win the year before. I keep hearing that Allen outplayed Mahomes in his loss, but I'm not really sure that's true. In Allen's absolute best performance, they both played fairly similarly, IMO, so where is he making up ground?

But with all that being said, I'll concede if you are projecting the next year chances based solely on the last two years of play, it's not offensive to have him in the discussion. 

We don't ignore it but it's less relevant. Breaking it down to Chiefs beat the Bills twice so Mahomes must be better is pretty dumb logic. Anyone watching that game knew Allen played better, and did more with less. Chiefs probably win that game by more if you swap Mahomes with Allen. That's not to say Mahomes wasn't also great, or to say he isn't the answer here depending on certain factors but that much should be obvious.

[Soggust]

9 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

We don't ignore it but it's less relevant. Breaking it down to Chiefs beat the Bills twice so Mahomes must be better is pretty dumb logic. Anyone watching that game knew Allen played better, and did more with less. Chiefs probably win that game by more if you swap Mahomes with Allen. That's not to say Mahomes wasn't also great, or to say he isn't the answer here depending on certain factors but that much should be obvious.

I watched that game and simply disagree and think a healthy % of others would too. 

What did Allen do substantially better? They both had 4 TDs. Neither had a turnover. Mahomes had more yards, Allen slightly better completion %. Literally, the hair-splitting difference was the fact Mahomes won.

I'm not sure where Allen did more with less. The Bills receivers were torching our secondary all day. Are we going to pretend they weren't WIDE open on multiple TDs as well? 

And again, your case is not that "hey they played pretty equally" but rather that it was so obvious that anyone watching knew Allen played better. 

Where is Allen so clearly above Mahomes in that game?

[Mox]

Just now, Soggust said:

I watched that game and simply disagree and think a healthy % of others would too. 

What did Allen do substantially better? They both had 4 TDs. Neither had a turnover. Mahomes had more yards, Allen slightly better completion %. Literally, the hair-splitting difference was the fact Mahomes won.

I'm not sure where Allen did more with less. The Bills receivers were torching our secondary all day. Are we going to pretend they weren't WIDE open on multiple TDs as well? 

And again, your case is not that "hey they played pretty equally" but rather that it was so obvious that anyone watching knew Allen played better. 

Where is Allen so clearly above Mahomes in that game?

Then I doubt your evaluation ability. Allen was running for his life, shaking guys off his back to throw dimes or fight for tough yardage and converting 4th downs like his life depended it. A lot of Mahomes numbers late came from throwing to an unguarded Kelce or watching Tyreke outrun four guys with an angle on him. Again, not to take away from the magic he was working in the pocket too but when the best TE in the NFL isn't guarded on numerous key plays it makes your job much easier. This is obviously a simplistic, generalized breakdown but I don't think you're going to change your mind regardless of evidence presented. 

[Soggust]

33 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

Then I doubt your evaluation ability. Allen was running for his life, shaking guys off his back to throw dimes or fight for tough yardage and converting 4th downs like his life depended it. 

You mean like Mahomes' first TD where runs for his life and leaps for the TD on 3rd down?

https://youtu.be/n1dp2ZKi0cc?t=109

Maybe his second TD where he manages to barely get off the throw?

https://youtu.be/n1dp2ZKi0cc?t=290

I'm sure you're choosing only to remember his 3rd to Hill here where, albeit a nice throw in stride, this is CLEARLY all Hill here 

https://youtu.be/n1dp2ZKi0cc?t=817

Does it not matter that he pinpoints a dime to Kelce to win the game in OT?

https://youtu.be/n1dp2ZKi0cc?t=995

 

 

33 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

Again, not to take away from the magic he was working in the pocket too but when the best TE in the NFL isn't guarded on numerous key plays it makes your job much easier. 

 

 

Well let's look at Allen's TDs ->

#1 ) Davis wide open, not sure if that was busted coverage or he just cooked the guy

https://youtu.be/n1dp2ZKi0cc?t=344

#2) Davis over the top (he may be 'open', but this is an absolutely dope throw for sure)

https://youtu.be/n1dp2ZKi0cc?t=552

#3) Davis wide open literally ruining the defender's career

https://youtu.be/n1dp2ZKi0cc?t=774

#4) Davis is wide open for NFL standards but not quite as much as before, but its also a great throw too)

------------------

We can go through 'key plays' as well if you really want. There are plenty of Mahomes key 3rd down conversions and plenty for Allen.

But we are splitting hairs so much at that point that I think my main point still stands. There is no argument for Allen being clearly better throughout the course of the game. A game he lost (which is the icing, not the batter). 

And that game is basically the biggest argument for taking Allen over Mahomes to win a SB next year. Except Mahomes literally already has one and has been better in the regular season throughout the course of their careers. It's not that Allen is bad whatsoever or can't possibly be better or anything, it's that to this point in their careers, there's really no argument for taking Allen over Mahomes sans being a fan/hater.

In all the ways Allen is great, Mahomes has been better so far. In fact, I think Allen has a better argument against Rodgers than Mahomes and I think Rodgers is probably better than Mahomes, if that makes sense.

Edited January 31, 2022 by Soggust

[Billy86]

On 1/31/2022 at 2:32 PM, Soggust said:

Apart from "he played well against the Chiefs", what's the argument to include Allen with Rodgers/Mahomes?

Rodgers and Mahomes are in the tier they are because they both have a SB and at least one MVP season. In fact, they each have one of the top 5ish passing seasons in NFL history, arguably. 

Allen is great and not to take anything away from him, but it seems pretty premature to include him in that group at this point. 

Career wise, absolutely. But the question in the OP is who gives you the best chance today.

I thought Allen was going to be a bust if I'm honest (that whole early first round 2018 class of QBs only got hyped because there were no standout choices in my opinion) and I wasn't sold on him through his first two seasons, but he's developed into a bonafide superstar over the last two in my opinion.