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Aidan Hutchinson Going #1-Worst Case Scenario for the Lions?


Just Want A Title

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2 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

If we flesh it out: 

2022

  • Lions draft Ekwonu (approx cap hit of $5M)
  • Lions cut Hal Vaitai (post June 1st - $7M cap room; $1M dead cap)

LT - Decker; LG - Jackson; OC - Ragnow; RG - Ekwonu; RT - Sewell

  • Lions trade Taylor Decker in 2023 for a 3rd/4th ($13.9M cap room/$3.9M dead cap)

2023

LT - Sewell or Ekwonu; LG - Jackson; OC - Ragnow; RG - Ekwonu or TBD; RT - Sewell/Ekwonu/TBD

You arguably could just keep Decker but if you're looking towards the future, it'd give us short term and long term options. 

 

Do people really think Decker is only worth a 3rd/4th?  

I get what it would do for our O line.  We would be borderline elite but at the same time, I just am not sure I would risk it.  If we can get a future 1st or 2nd+ for Decker, I would be ok with it but drafting a guy to play OG and net a 3rd in the future out of it is pointless given Decker is a pretty darn good OT and his contract isn't bad for his level of play.  He is the 12th highest paid LT in the league, and once some young guys get extensions in the next year or two, he will fall further down that list. 

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1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Do people really think Decker is only worth a 3rd/4th?  

I get what it would do for our O line.  We would be borderline elite but at the same time, I just am not sure I would risk it.  If we can get a future 1st or 2nd+ for Decker, I would be ok with it but drafting a guy to play OG and net a 3rd in the future out of it is pointless given Decker is a pretty darn good OT and his contract isn't bad for his level of play.  He is the 12th highest paid LT in the league, and once some young guys get extensions in the next year or two, he will fall further down that list. 

I was just trying to not overly project draft comp for an above average LT who would be 30 years old. I'd be much happier to get a 1st or 2nd+ for him if we were to make the move.

PFF has him rated as the 27th overall OT, so he's definitely in that above average (but not elite) level. 

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Just now, Karnage84 said:

I was just trying to not overly project draft comp for an above average LT who would be 30 years old. I'd be much happier to get a 1st or 2nd+ for him if we were to make the move.

PFF has him rated as the 27th overall OT, so he's definitely in that above average (but not elite) level. 

What was he the year before?  He was hurt half of this year and still played well.  If he plays well enough to get a 1st round pick, would it make sense to move him for an unknown at RT/LT?  It would most likely mean we have Ikem at OG, and that just sounds crazy to me at 2.  Its an option, but I am not sure he is a good enough prospect to pass up Hamilton or Kayvon or Walker or even Davis at 2.  

Also one of those OTs ahead of him is Sewell.  

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3 hours ago, Just Want A Title said:

Thibodeaux has raised some more questions about how committed he is by leaving the combine early.  That probably would not fit so well with our coaching staff.  Hamilton is a great safety prospect but should he be taken at #2?  

Thibodeaux was good enough to be the favorite for the #1 overall pick all throughout the season.  Even after the season.  Now suddenly he's not?  I get it his combine is weird and it does open the door to question a little bit but I think everyone is overthinking this.  I think we go back to the well at Oregon again if Hutch isn't there.  I think Sewell will tell them all they need to know about Thibs.

I do like Hamilton and he's my #3 player in the draft but I think the drop off from Thibodeaux to him is a steep one.

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3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

In 2020, the Georgia Bulldogs had all of these guys on their defensive line:

  • Azeez Ojulari (3rd round pick, 10 sacks in 2021 with the Giants)
  • Jermaine Johnson (projected 2022 1st round pick, 12 sacks and ACC DPOY)
  • Devonte Wyatt
  • Jordan Davis
  • Travon Waker

In 2021

  • Devonte Wyatt - 423 snaps
  • Jordan Davis - 378 snaps
  • Travon Waker - 596 snaps
  • Jalen Carter (projected 2023 1st round pick) - 396 snaps
  • Nolan Smith (projected 2023 1st round pick) - 499 snaps

In comparison:

  • Aidan Hutchinson - 794 snaps
  • Jermaine Johnson - 736 snaps
  • Travis Jones - 584 snaps
  • Phidarian Mathis - 547 snaps

Georgia just has a really deep rotation of guys on the defensive line. 

You left out Adam Anderson who would be drafted before any of the EDGE players this year except for his legal troubles now. 

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1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

What was he the year before?  He was hurt half of this year and still played well.  If he plays well enough to get a 1st round pick, would it make sense to move him for an unknown at RT/LT?  It would most likely mean we have Ikem at OG, and that just sounds crazy to me at 2.  Its an option, but I am not sure he is a good enough prospect to pass up Hamilton or Kayvon or Walker or even Davis at 2.  

Also one of those OTs ahead of him is Sewell.  

His score was 82.0, which would place him at #12 this year (can't see prior years list). Every draft pick is an unknown. The fact that he could play LT/RT/OG does create a high floor where he's less likely to bust. If Kayvon is like Clowney, then I'd probably prefer to just move on and take someone else. There's some really good players in that list you've mentioned but it feels like a deep DL class. There was a PFF mock that had Karlafis (sp?) drop to round 2, so someone like him could be that option. 

This is principally just to have a discussion on a different idea that I haven't seen floated around. 

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43 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

This isn't "I think we should do this" but asking for perspectives... the draft talk is about Ikem Ekwonu as possibly being the #1 overall pick as a LT or he could be an elite level guard. Post-June 1st cut of Vaitai would net us $7M in cap room ($1M Dead Cap). Any thoughts on the Lions taking Ekwonu at #2, playing him at OG, cutting/trading Vaitai with the thought that he either a) Trade Decker by 2024, move either Ekwonu or Sewell to LT b) 10 years of elite guard play beside PBer Jonah Jackson. 

On a scale of 1-10, how much would you like (10) or hate this (1)?

2 on the hate scale for me, and here's why: I don't want to create holes on this team only to replace them with premium resources; that's what Quintrica did all the time.  Also in 2 years Decker's contract will look like an absolute steal.  Wait until you see what Armsted signs for.  Drafting a guard at 2 that's not Quintin Nelson if a bad decision.  And lastly I think Vaitai offers veteran leadership and a stability at the OG position next to Sewell.  I also think Hamilton and Thibodeaux are better prospects.

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5 minutes ago, Millenhater said:

Thibodeaux was good enough to be the favorite for the #1 overall pick all throughout the season.  Even after the season.  Now suddenly he's not?  I get it his combine is weird and it does open the door to question a little bit but I think everyone is overthinking this.  I think we go back to the well at Oregon again if Hutch isn't there.  I think Sewell will tell them all they need to know about Thibs.

I do like Hamilton and he's my #3 player in the draft but I think the drop off from Thibodeaux to him is a steep one.

I think the draft busts most years relates to desire/passion/mentality of a player.  every year, there are guys drafted high that flame out, and usually its the Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, etc guys that don't have it together mentally.  If Kayvon acts that way, I really will struggle to want him.  I prefer a guy who is willing to wait around all day to prove he is the top pick and will have a chip on his shoulder if he isn't.  Who knows how his relationship with Sewell was or if he has changed dramatically since Sewell left.  Penei played one season with him, so I would take any info with a grain of salt. I love Kayvon's talent, I dont trust his motivation to be great and its not just the combine.  Its the delayed return from injury, the chats about picking Oregon over Bama because he didn't want to be just another DL from Bama and wanted to connect himself to make more money with Nike.  Its a great concept, but also tells me maybe he is more about himself than the team and money is his motivation, not success.  

Its honestly the thing about Hutch that makes me like him as much as I do for us, even though he is a scUM guy.  His mentality seems to be all about putting in the work.  

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2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think the draft busts most years relates to desire/passion/mentality of a player.  every year, there are guys drafted high that flame out, and usually its the Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, etc guys that don't have it together mentally.  If Kayvon acts that way, I really will struggle to want him.  I prefer a guy who is willing to wait around all day to prove he is the top pick and will have a chip on his shoulder if he isn't.  Who knows how his relationship with Sewell was or if he has changed dramatically since Sewell left.  Penei played one season with him, so I would take any info with a grain of salt. I love Kayvon's talent, I dont trust his motivation to be great and its not just the combine.  Its the delayed return from injury, the chats about picking Oregon over Bama because he didn't want to be just another DL from Bama and wanted to connect himself to make more money with Nike.  Its a great concept, but also tells me maybe he is more about himself than the team and money is his motivation, not success.  

Its honestly the thing about Hutch that makes me like him as much as I do for us, even though he is a scUM guy.  His mentality seems to be all about putting in the work.  

<Cut and paste>

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1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think the draft busts most years relates to desire/passion/mentality of a player.  every year, there are guys drafted high that flame out, and usually its the Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, etc guys that don't have it together mentally.  If Kayvon acts that way, I really will struggle to want him.  I prefer a guy who is willing to wait around all day to prove he is the top pick and will have a chip on his shoulder if he isn't.  Who knows how his relationship with Sewell was or if he has changed dramatically since Sewell left.  Penei played one season with him, so I would take any info with a grain of salt. I love Kayvon's talent, I dont trust his motivation to be great and its not just the combine.  Its the delayed return from injury, the chats about picking Oregon over Bama because he didn't want to be just another DL from Bama and wanted to connect himself to make more money with Nike.  Its a great concept, but also tells me maybe he is more about himself than the team and money is his motivation, not success.  

Its honestly the thing about Hutch that makes me like him as much as I do for us, even though he is a scUM guy.  His mentality seems to be all about putting in the work.  

Don't get me wrong it definitely is concerning a little and what has me leaning ever so slightly towards Hutch at this point.  I just think it's a little overblown and I don't think there is another premium position player close to him.   Even if Sewell and him aren't tight, sewell's brother still plays there and he has a ton of ties to the team, I think the Lions will have more inside info than anyone.  I guess I just haven't jumped off the Thibodeaux train...yet...

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11 minutes ago, Millenhater said:

Don't get me wrong it definitely is concerning a little and what has me leaning ever so slightly towards Hutch at this point.  I just think it's a little overblown and I don't think there is another premium position player close to him.   Even if Sewell and him aren't tight, sewell's brother still plays there and he has a ton of ties to the team, I think the Lions will have more inside info than anyone.  I guess I just haven't jumped off the Thibodeaux train...yet...

I’m not off it, but I have one foot off ready to go either way.  Clowney seems like a good example.  Amazing athlete with great film but just never seemed to have the desire to be great.  And although he has had an ok career, not at all up to expectations. This staff can’t draft an ok player here, and his busy potential is rising with every article IMO. 

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1 minute ago, Millenhater said:

Don't get me wrong it definitely is concerning a little and what has me leaning ever so slightly towards Hutch at this point.  I just think it's a little overblown and I don't think there is another premium position player close to him.   Even if Sewell and him aren't tight, sewell's brother still plays there and he has a ton of ties to the team, I think the Lions will have more inside info than anyone.  I guess I just haven't jumped off the Thibodeaux train...yet...

The key thing is - what motivates you? Is it getting paid or is it winning championships? Are you going to be coming to the facility and putting in the extra work or relying on freakish genetics to slide by? From what we've heard, KT is a freak athlete however his numbers actually match up with guys like Nik Bonitto. If he performed like Barno out of Virginia Tech then maybe you take the risk and hope you can corral him to keep him going. 

I'm with Sllim on Hutch's mindset and his athleticism overall isn't something to scoff at either. 

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