Xenos Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 3 hours ago, Daniel said: I mean, if your scouts aren’t outperforming the board, why not fire them? Obviously, you still need interviews and all, but if you’re an owner, why spend your money there at all? Old school mentality or arrogance? Everyone’s looking for some kind of edge. I feel like it’s similar to how hedge funds exist even though they rarely beat an index fund. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Mazrimiv said: The consensus board also ignores the concept of team/system fit, which does matter. Unless the consensus is prepared to build separate boards for each team, this conversation is largely pointless. Scheme fit is important. But I think the point of the Tweet is that there shouldn’t be a large deviation from the outside consensus board. For example, is Cole Strange worth taking in the first or are you better off waiting to see if he drops further? Or maybe if he’s already taken, then take the next best prospect in the 2nd or 3rd per the consensus board that fits your scheme? https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1526822190359912450 Edited June 4, 2022 by Xenos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 3 hours ago, MWil23 said: I’d love to see the consensus board on quarterbacks over the past 5-10 years. For example, depending upon the expert, the Chargers get Tua instead of Herbert and the Bills get Rosen instead of Allen. The Browns would also have ended up with Chubb instead of Ward and even Guice over Chubb. Don’t get me wrong, those guys are right more than they’re wrong but those are some major franchise altering draft picks. I don’t think it’s about getting the exact consensus guy. But the general theory is getting someone in that range without reaching. Herbert was fairly close to Tua that year, even though he was generally ranked below him. If we had selected Jalen Hursts with our 1st round pick instead, it would have gone greatly against the consensus board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 3 hours ago, squire12 said: Is the consensus board build from the actual draft boards of all 32 teams? Or is it from what various draft sites have that is a compilation of what there "scouts and teams sources" give them for grades. Since pre-draft is " lying season", I'm not sure how the team sources could be verified as actual honest info Yeah, it’s based on outsiders and not the actual 32 team boards. So there obviously could be subterfuge and scheme fit issues. However, it is interesting how things line up according to this article. https://theathletic.com/3286462/2022/05/01/nfl-draft-steals-reaches-consensus/ Quote And what right does the consensus board have to evaluate the draft? Well, aside from the fact that it represents the collective efforts of dozens of draft experts, there’s evidence that it can predict outcomes. A study done by PFFevaluating the 2014 through 2019 NFL Draft classes found that the Consensus Big Board went nearly blow-for-blow with the NFL in evaluating how well prospects would go on to do. Add in the fact that most public boards do not attempt to control that much for positional value or fit and it’s remarkable that there have been portions of the draft where the consensus board has beaten the NFL in predicting player performance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 1 hour ago, Xenos said: Old school mentality or arrogance? Everyone’s looking for some kind of edge. I feel like it’s similar to how hedge funds exist even though they rarely beat an index fund. True. Or how the Titans refused to have an analytics department until last year. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 59 minutes ago, Xenos said: Yeah, it’s based on outsiders and not the actual 32 team boards. So there obviously could be subterfuge and scheme fit issues. However, it is interesting how things line up according to this article. https://theathletic.com/3286462/2022/05/01/nfl-draft-steals-reaches-consensus/ unless the consensus big board is performing above the NFL teams, then it seems like it is a no. from the graph, it looks like the draft is ahead of the consensus big board outside of a few spots. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 54 minutes ago, squire12 said: unless the consensus big board is performing above the NFL teams, then it seems like it is a no. from the graph, it looks like the draft is ahead of the consensus big board outside of a few spots. So I stand corrected about the Big Board Consensus and Index Fund analogy since the draft does pull ahead. But based on this graph, it’s still pretty damn close. Unless the gap is actually bigger in that picture than I am to believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xenos Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 14 hours ago, Wyld Stallyns said: If the Colts just used the consensus board they would have stayed at 43 and taken LT Bernhard Raimann, seeing as that was the consensus pick for the Colts at that pick. Instead they traded down from 43 to 52, got pick number 77 in return, and took WR Alec Pierce at 52 and Raimann at 77 It’s funny because I started this thread in part because of the Colts and what Dodd did. https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1526819556764930048 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lancerman Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 No because need matters and you are always liable to find some gem that people overlooked. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jakuvious Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 I'm still inclined to think this is basically what Baltimore does. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeTheBallDeep Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 18 hours ago, Dome said: The NFL draft should be 100% fan vote would be fun I would love this lol actually not a terrible idea for the NFL to think about for just say the 7th round to keep casual fans interested till the end Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 3 hours ago, Xenos said: So I stand corrected about the Big Board Consensus and Index Fund analogy since the draft does pull ahead. But based on this graph, it’s still pretty damn close. Unless the gap is actually bigger in that picture than I am to believe. It's an interesting dynamic. The graph and any assessment is getting more data points so it may overall look " smoother" with less volatility. Each team has a smaller set of picks, so it would be expected to see more volatility. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemike778 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 21 hours ago, Xenos said: Apparently it’s very hard for a team on average to beat the consensus board. You know the one that outside pundits use to grade whether something is a reach, steal, or the right value. It reminds me of how very few investors can actually beat an index fund. Which brings me to why I’m personally bringing this up. The Tweet below does make me wonder if those scouts and FO people really need to be spending this much time on prospects. At what point are you having diminishing returns? Like investing in the stock market, should your team just do normal hours and go by the consensus board rather than their own and have reaches? https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1526819499617419265 https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1526822190359912450 https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1526822395088195585 The reality is that draft classes are paid millions of dollars. So yes, you should be spending a lot of time on researching the prospects instead of letting journalists and pundits with no financial responsibility to the franchise, decide who you should hire. Yes, a lot of teams probably don't beat the consensus boards - I'm guessing these are the teams who (all things being equal) lose more games. The consensus boards probably do a pretty good job of deciding the general hierarchy of players but I'm guessing that a huge amount of time goes into finalising the exact board and establishing which of two players of similar-ish ability suit your team better. Its teams who get this right who are in super bowl contention. Teams who don't (and you would assume teams that just follow consensus would fall into this) aren't. I'm actually quite surprised about this. There is a lot of confirmation bias but it seems like every year Packers draft someone around the 7th round who experts deem a steal who could have gone in the 3rd. Everyone gets excited talking about amazing value. Couple of years later player is on waivers. Again confirmation bias probably over-playing this but generally I take the whole reaches and steals stuff with a pinch of salt. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemike778 Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 4 hours ago, Xenos said: So I stand corrected about the Big Board Consensus and Index Fund analogy since the draft does pull ahead. But based on this graph, it’s still pretty damn close. Unless the gap is actually bigger in that picture than I am to believe. The big difference is that hedge funds v trackers is a fair test. Consensus v draft you are evaluating the consensus based on results of teams following the draft board not the consensus board (ie what looks like a good call by the consensus board is only good because of analysis by the team drafting matching player skills with team fit rather than following a consensus). If that makes sense. Impossible to know how good a consensus board is at drafting unless a team actually rigidly followed it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charles Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 The flaw here is we don't know how much the consensus board is influenced by inside information from teams, agents, players, etc. We also don't know how much influence the consensus has on teams. You'd need to be able to compare draft strategies where teams didn't have access to the draft "experts" and vice versa. Example...Trevor Lawrence was the consensus and actual #1pick last season, but would he have still been the #1pick if hadn't been preordained as such for his whole college career? What if all the Jags had access to was their own scouting reports and what film they had? Just no way to know. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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