What if everything goes right? (2022 Season Edition)

[abstract_thought]

Most discussion of the Bears' 2022 season has focused on the question: Just how bad are they?

But what if everything went right for the Bears in 2022? What are their chances at the playoffs? At a Super Bowl? How would they win games?

How do you envision a successful version of this current Bears team?

[JAF-N72EX]

5 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

What are their chances at the playoffs? At a Super Bowl?

Zero. If this team makes the playoffs then this staff is legit as hell.

The 'any given Sunday' element is always there but this team lacks far too much talent at key positions to envision anything more 8 wins at it's very best and if every ball bounces our way.

Edited July 1, 2022 by JAF-N72EX

[Sugashane]

5 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Zero. If this team makes the playoffs then this staff is legit as hell.

The 'any given Sunday' element is always there but this team lacks far too much talent at key positions to envision anything more 8 wins at it's very best and if every ball bounces our way.

Yeah I'm pretty much in line with this. There would have to be multiple key injuries for guys like Rodgers and others to luck into a 10 win season. 

If we are lucky this season then we will see Fields is a legit starter with superstar potential, we go into 2023 with Jenkins, Borom, Jones, and one other entrenched young starter on the OL, and several young guys proving to be reliable starters to build around.

Absolute best case scenario is that we have only a few serious holes and depth that we need to attack in the next offseason and fall just short in a handful of wins for better draft position. 

[Epyon]

I think the top end optimistic outlook for this team is a wildcard spot, and either a first round playoff loss, or maybe a tough game to get into the 2nd round.  I don't see any chance of us being Superbowl contenders..... and this would already take TONS of luck, specifically with the offensive line, but also at WR, and obviously at QB as well.

 

The OL scares the hell out of me more than anything really, because there's just so many question marks there, and we need the OL to perform if literally ANY of the offense is going to work..  That being said, if Jones and Borom both hit, and Jenkins can replace that damn bum Mustipher... then there's also a real chance the offense could be "record setting" (for the Bears)..... If we can really establish a run game, then hit Velus and Mooney over the top for chunk plays, I could even see this team ending up like top 12-15 for the league..... I'm thinking like 4k combined passing yards, and the entire backfield accounting for say 2.2k rushing, both of which is actually only a roughly a 10% increase over last year.

Defensively, I've probably been overrating us tbh, but I'm EXPECTING a top 10 defense at a minimum this year.... The Defensive line is my largest concern, because the 4-3 depends on that passrush getting home with 4, but everywhere else I think we're very well positioned, and we have (on paper) one of the top secondaries in the league, if the hype on our two rookies ends up panning out. If the DL ends up being better than expected, and the rest play to expectations, this could easily be a top 5 defense.

[JAF-N72EX]

On 7/1/2022 at 9:37 PM, Sugashane said:

Absolute best case scenario is that we have only a few serious holes and depth that we need to attack in the next offseason and fall just short in a handful of wins for better draft position. 

This leads me to another point as well.  This is a rebuild year and losing games is expected. But more I'm curious to see how competitive this team really is during those losses.  This will tell us alot about the coaching staff.

And just to be clear, when I say 'competitive' I don't mean what the final score board says either. Losing by 3 points on the score board means nothing when the majority of those points came in garbage time after the opponent pulled their starters because you were getting blown out for the last 55 minutes.  
Eff the score board. That's not what I'm talking about.  What I'm talking about is; are they still fighting when down two or three possessions, or are they basically giving up? Are they still putting their bodies at risk by laying out for catches and tackles, or are they just going through the motions and playing lazy?  Are they keeping it close till the end, or are they looking out of sync and unprepared by halftime? How many close games came down to just one or two bad plays in the last 5 minutes? THIS is what I'm talking about.  All of this matters.

I read a book from a coach who once said something along the lines of "you can tell more about a coach during a loss than you can during a win". I'm not sure if it was Belichick or Walsh but I'm pretty sure it was one of them. Anyhow, I'm paraphrasing here but this always stuck with me and I do think it holds true.
 I don't care if we're down 20 points in the 4th quarter. If I see players still giving it their all then that would say alot about the staff and give me more hope in the future IMO.

 

[dll2000]

"If everything goes right" part 1

It all starts with the O line which has the most moving parts and 'what ifs'.  

The two most known quantities are Whitehair and Patrick.  The starting LG and C respectively.   We will assume they are going to be avg. for purposes of this conversation.  I think Whitehair has shown that he can be both above average and below average so we aren't really sure what we are going to get with him in 2022.   What is good about Whitehair is he has been durable.

Assuming no Peters type move is coming at 11th hour the other spots were being manned when last we saw by:

LT:  Braxton Jones/Jenkins/Borom

LG:  Whitehair

C : Patrick

RG:  Mustipher

RT: Jenkins/Borom

Now the obvious spot of concern is well, everywhere, but MORE concerning is LT and RG lets put positive spin on it.  

Let's take LT first:

I think Borom has shown already that he can be an adequate RT with way he played at end of season.    If he was penciled in at RT I would be fairly comfortable with that.   But he is not.   They don't seem to know if they want him at LT or RT or swing tackle.   He has not shown he can play on left side and most scouts think he cannot.  His college coach didn't put him there either.   

Jenkins played some LT in college and got reps there last year, but didn't look good to my memory.   Not fair because he had back surgery and then was thrown in deep end and didn't get help.  We don't know he can't play LT in NFL, but he hasn't shown it yet to anyone's satisfaction.   Early returns from OTAs show new regime doesn't think he can do it either.   Positive is he played well there in college.   When drafted most people thought he would be Bears RT for years to come.   

Braxton Jones has no NFL experience, but has apparently shown enough in OTAs to have concluded OTA camp at first team LT.   If he is better than Borom or Jenkins at LT that would be helpful as most scouts think neither is a natural LT.

Best case scenario is Braxton wins LT job and it isn't by default.  He is legit good there and Bears found a diamond in rough.

Now let's talk about RG:

I can't put any positive spin on Mustipher being the starting RG.  He was bad at C and that is his natural position, a move to RG would be disastrous.   He is an acceptable back up C.     All I can figure is Mustipher moves well and is super smart.   He would look good in OTAs.  I can't see him looking good in live, full go action and I don't think he holds starting spot past first preseason game.   Dozier has never played well, not sure why we signed him.   Maybe Poles was remembering college tape.  

Rookie Zach Thomas is a balls to wall, aggressive OL who is really raw technically, but has good traits, traits you can't teach.    Zach hopefully learns enough in camp to surpass Mustipher on depth chart. 

Other solution is Braxton takes over at LT and loser of Borom and Jenkins RT battle defaults to RG.   You would think that decision would have to be made by early to mid-August though.   That gives you most talented 5 on field at once, which is what everyone claims to want to do.

So positive spin for O Line in sum is:

1) Braxton Jones is surprisingly good in camp and wins LT job.

2) Borom or Jenkins wins RT job.

3) Borom or Jenkins moves to RG and excels there without being upset at position change or in alternative Zach Thomas comes on strong in camp at RG.  

4) Whitehair reverts to his best self in this scheme.

5) Patrick continues to improve as a starting C in league.

6) Nobody gets hurt.  

 

 

[dll2000]

"If everything goes right" part 2

Most people assume that next greatest position of worry after Oline for Bears in 2022 is WR.   I don't think so.   I think it is DL/Edge.

We lost Mack, Hicks, Goldman, Nichols and Quinn is likely be traded.  If Quinn isn't traded he may hold out or not give best efforts, his career tends to be a bit up and down.   

In any event, at it's best that is an elite starting D line on paper that is no longer in the building.  

Now I understand that Mack was hurt for much of season, Hicks has been hurt a lot of late, Goldman checked out since covid, but all that being said we are not replacing like for like here talentwise.    Even Nichols is a fine football player. 

If Quinn is traded or holds out, our starting edges are Muhammad and Gipson and primary back up is a converted WR.

Muhammad is maybe average, Gipson is arrow pointing up - but I don't think he isn't anywhere near Quinn or Mack class.  Robinson is a project.  A highly talented project, but a project all the same.

Blackson played well at end of last year and Tonga is a sturdy player.  Jones is a pretty good football player and Charges seemed to do better when he played, but they still let him go.  

So positive spin for DL and Edge:

1) Nobody wants to give a 2nd for Quinn, Quinn decides he is well paid and shows for camp and plays at similar level to last year.

2) Gipson continues to improve.

3) Muhammad continues to improve.  

4) Blackson plays like he played at end of year.

5) Tonga continues to improve.

6) Robinson learns some technique and is able to get on field.

7) Jones stays healthy and provides nice push in pocket.

 

[dll2000]

"If everything goes right" part 3

The most talked about position for Bears deficiency wise is WR.    It is a legit concern, but not biggest concern.   Why would I say that?

Three reasons.  1) QBs make WRs more so than WRs make QBs.   2) Our WRs have talent, relatively less talent as a group than most of league, but talent all the same.  And 3) there is only one football.  If you can find 3 legit weapons overall, a decent O line and a good QB you can make an Offense work.  

We know we have at least 2 legit offensive weapons in Montgomery and Mooney.  We just need one more guy to emerge and we have some good candidates.

Lets start with our best WR - Mooney. 

As much as Bears fans like Mooney, he is not respected much nationally.   I wills say he lacks physical stature to ever be considered a 'number one WR'.   But when you watch Mooney play one thing you notice - he is open.  He is open a lot.  Even when he doesn't get ball.   This guy consistently gets separation in a league where you aren't supposed to get separation.   He is capable of doing what Bears have mostly lacked in recent years (outside of him) explosive plays.   No offense works well without explosive playmakers.   He works hard and spent offseason working with Fields.   One could do worse than Mooney as your best WR.  

But who else is going to step up at WR?  You can't just have just the one.   

The candidates are Pringle, Velus, St. Brown and Pettis.  What do they have in common?  They are explosive players with speed.   We don't need all of them to be good.  We need one.

Well Dan you say.  Last year we had Goodwin who has world class speed.  Byrd who ran a 4.3.   And Adams who never saw light of day after a good preseason.  And we had Allen Robinson, who isn't explosive, but is great contested catch player and consistent player in league.  On paper our best offensive player.

Why are these guys better than those guys? 

Well, number 1 the QB is different and more talented.  And he is getting an offseason.  He is getting an offseason with his guys.   He is getting reps.  

Number 2, Robinson was pissed and not giving best efforts.

Number 3 Goodwin has never been that good.   

Number 4 Byrd was good in NE only who seems to be able to make anyone good.

Velus has not only track speed, but he has speed that shows up in pads.   Granted it is only in college, but players are taking notice in camp.  

Pringle has a great highlight reel, maybe he can do something with more reps.

St. Brown has done very little to be honest and expectations for him are not high.  But his little brother had a good year which has to light a bit of fire under him and he has a fresh start.  

Pettis was thought of has a future star when he started, but never has been able to stay healthy.   He may get lucky and buck that trend and resurrect his career.

Lets switch to TE.   As we only need 3 legit weapons like I said (along with decent O line and QB).   Kmet had a lot of catches last year, but 0 TDs is embarassing.  In his defense they wanted to use Graham or Robinson or Montgomery in redzone.   That will likely change this year and he gets added to mix.   He looks to be in better condition this year than previous years.   Lets see if it translates to on field success.

Montgomery is underrated player nationally.   If he can regain his speed he had early last year to go with what he has already consistently shown, he is a legit top back in this league in backfield and as a receiving threat from backfield.

To sum then best case everything goes right scenario:

1) Mooney continues to improve and stay healthy.

2) Montgomery regains early season speed and is used better.

3) One or more of Velus, Pringle, St. John or Pettis play to their max potential.

4) Kmet takes a step forward as a redzone threat and improves on speed.  

 

 

[dll2000]

"If everything goes right" part 4

Bears spent the first 2 picks on 2022 on secondary and some of their very limited FA acquisitions.   All told we are slated to have 3 new starters in Bears secondary.

Gordan is expected to start opposite Johnson.

Brisker is replacing Gipson.

Graham, Tavon Young and Shelley are competing for nickel spot with last look in OTAs having Graham in starting role, but Young still getting some number 1 reps.   Most still expect a healthy Young to take the spot.

Gordan and Brisker have had early rave reviews from coaches.   I personally am very high on Brisker.  I think his floor and ceiling are both high.   

After above it is clear the largest investment of offseason has been in the secondary.   You can't remake everything - Poles chose to go secondary - likely based on his draft board and way it fell.

So best case scenario:

1) The younger Graham legit wins nickel spot over a healthy Tavon Young.  This gives Bears a good young player to add to mix.  But more importantly gives Bears some depth at CB.  

2) If Tavon does win job he has to stay healthy, which he has been unable to do since being made highest paid nickel corner in league.

3) Gordan lives up to OTA hype.

4) Brisker lives up to OTA hype.

5) Jackson has a career resurgence, though I maintain tackling and loaf plays aside - he has not played as bad as his reputation of late suggests. 

6) Johnson doesn't have any recurring shoulder issues.  

This results in a solid, if not very good, NFL secondary.  Making a previous weakness into a strength.

 

 

[Sugashane]

18 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

This leads me to another point as well.  This is a rebuild year and losing games is expected. But more I'm curious to see how competitive this team really is during those losses.  This will tell us alot about the coaching staff.

And just to be clear, when I say 'competitive' I don't mean what the final score board says either. Losing by 3 points on the score board means nothing when the majority of those points came in garbage time after the opponent pulled their starters because you were getting blown out for the last 55 minutes.  
Eff the score board. That's not what I'm talking about.  What I'm talking about is; are they still fighting when down two or three possessions, or are they basically giving up? Are they still putting their bodies at risk by laying out for catches and tackles, or are they just going through the motions and playing lazy?  Are they keeping it close till the end, or are they looking out of sync and unprepared by halftime? How many close games came down to just one or two bad plays in the last 5 minutes? THIS is what I'm talking about.  All of this matters.

I read a book from a coach who once said something along the lines of "you can tell more about a coach during a loss than you can during a win". I'm not sure if it was Belichick or Walsh but I'm pretty sure it was one of them. Anyhow, I'm paraphrasing here but this always stuck with me and I do think it holds true.
 I don't care if we're down 20 points in the 4th quarter. If I see players still giving it their all then that would say alot about the staff and give me more hope in the future IMO.

 

This is huge to me as well.  Fox with the Panthers was a hard*** savage but the end of his tenure here he was defensive Trestman. Im hoping Eberflus is that early Fox. 

Player wise it is huge too. Offensively with Long, Mills, Sitton, etc we weren't the most talented OL group but they were fighters. I loved that. Thats why when Jenkins showed the fire after Fields took a shot i was pumped and totally against Ifedi. 

I want a bully mindset for my team. Richie Incognito is a POS but his play on the field is EXACTLY what I want from the OL. He isnt the most talented player but he is strong and mean as hell. First play, up by 30 or down by 30 youre getting the same effort and attitude. Give three of him for the IOL and some Kyle Long clones for the OTs and ill be living my best life. 

[dll2000]

13 hours ago, Sugashane said:

This is huge to me as well.  Fox with the Panthers was a hard*** savage but the end of his tenure here he was defensive Trestman. Im hoping Eberflus is that early Fox. 

Player wise it is huge too. Offensively with Long, Mills, Sitton, etc we weren't the most talented OL group but they were fighters. I loved that. Thats why when Jenkins showed the fire after Fields took a shot i was pumped and totally against Ifedi. 

I want a bully mindset for my team. Richie Incognito is a POS but his play on the field is EXACTLY what I want from the OL. He isnt the most talented player but he is strong and mean as hell. First play, up by 30 or down by 30 youre getting the same effort and attitude. Give three of him for the IOL and some Kyle Long clones for the OTs and ill be living my best life. 

I agree it starts with coach and teams will most often take on personality of HC.   

I don't want to self-insert, but as a player I was never once inspired by a pre-game or half time speech.  Didn't even listen really unless it was strategy related.

Motivational speech stuff I tuned out as irrelevant.  Or laughed at it (internally) as ridiculous nonsense.  I mean how many times can you hear 'give 110%'?  Or 'fourth quarter is ours!'?  Or whatever cliché.  

I did have a friend one year who would whisper jokes to me making fun of coach speaking and what he was saying while we were gathered around.   Bastard got me in trouble often, because I couldn't hold laughter in.   He was Asian and his slight accent from his parents and him whispering in my ear made the jokes that much funnier to me.   

As an aside that guy whispering to me is a millionaire now.  Owns rental property and State Farm franchises.  Has a beautiful family.  We were college roommates and hanging together when he met his now wife.  Amazing how many good friends I had growing up that are super successful now and we were all middle to lower class and grew up in what is often voted worst city in America in polls.  None of us were rich.  None of us went to Ivy league or even Big 10 schools.   We were dumb midwest kids drinking underage, chasing girls and getting in trouble.  

Anyway, I like Eberflus method, because he isn't trying to motivate with words.   He is going to grade every play based on effort.  Everyone gets to see every week how you did.  No need to call someone out.  Every can see the grade.

Urlacher in an interview said every week he would come in and have extremely heated arguments with his coach (forget which one - not Lovie) on his grades and plays and when he got a 'loaf' he felt he didn't deserve.   They would get in screaming matches.   He said the other guys did too, all the time.   This is what happens in this system.

Players don't want loafs marked under their name for their teammates to see.

This is what Nagy didn't do.   He didn't have accountability.  

When I coached we had group film sessions on Mondays and we would as a team review every play from previous game with all players and all coaches instead of practicing.   Often giving instruction to help players moving forward, but giving much praise with good things, but also calling out poor effort when it showed up.   Everyone could see it.   Not when a player got beat, that happens, but poor effort.

Later when I had position coaches and a bigger staff I assigned position coaches to grade their groups and give out stickers for various criteria we had posters for each kid to place them on.   Kids craved those stickers like candy.  More positive reinforcement than negative.    But that semi-objective reward and punishment stuff works more so than pretty speeches is my point.

[Sugashane]

1 minute ago, dll2000 said:

I agree it starts with coach and teams will most often take on personality of HC.   

I don't want to self-insert, but as a player I was never once inspired by a pre-game or half time speech.  Didn't even listen really unless it was strategy related.

Motivational speech stuff I tuned out as irrelevant.  Or laughed at it (internally) as ridiculous nonsense.  I mean how many times can you hear 'give 110%'?  Or 'fourth quarter is ours!'?  Or whatever cliché.  

I did have a friend one year who would whisper jokes to me making fun of coach speaking and what he was saying while we were gathered around.   Bastard got me in trouble often, because I couldn't hold laughter in.   He was Asian and his slight accent from his parents and him whispering in my ear made the jokes that much funnier to me.   

As an aside that guy whispering to me is a millionaire now.  Owns rental property and State Farm franchises.  Has a beautiful family.  We were college roommates and hanging together when he met his now wife.  Amazing how many good friends I had growing up that are super successful now and we were all middle to lower class and grew up in what is often voted worst city in America in polls.  None of us were rich.  None of us went to Ivy league or even Big 10 schools.   We were dumb midwest kids drinking underage, chasing girls and getting in trouble.  

Anyway, I like Eberflus method, because he isn't trying to motivate with words.   He is going to grade every play based on effort.  Everyone gets to see every week how you did.  No need to call someone out.  Every can see the grade.

Urlacher in an interview said every week he would come in and have extremely heated arguments with his coach (forget which one - not Lovie) on his grades and plays and when he got a 'loaf' he felt he didn't deserve.   They would get in screaming matches.   He said the other guys did too, all the time.   This is what happens in this system.

Players don't want loafs marked under their name for their teammates to see.

This is what Nagy didn't do.   He didn't have accountability.  

When I coached we had group film sessions on Mondays and we would as a team review every play from previous game with all players and all coaches instead of practicing.   Often giving instruction to help players moving forward, but giving much praise with good things, but also calling out poor effort when it showed up.   Everyone could see it.   Not when a player got beat, that happens, but poor effort.

Later when I had position coaches and a bigger staff I assigned position coaches to grade their groups and give out stickers for various criteria we had posters for each kid to place them on.   Kids craved those stickers like candy.  More positive reinforcement than negative.    But that semi-objective reward and punishment stuff works more so than pretty speeches is my point.

Yep. The rah rah speeches are great for Varsity Blues and all but in real life its nonsense. 

Our coach would constantly mention the guys backing up the starter

 "TJ would have made that block, Randy has crocodile arms so maybe Jon or Black would want it more," etc. Film was fun usually but if anyone had a bad game they heard it. We even had helmet decals with skull and crossbones for "killer" plays. Blockers absolutely burying their defenders, huge hits, breaking a few tackles, INTs and FFs. We got our regular ones for team achievements but those were our individual badges of honor. But if you botched a big play or really screwed one up you got it tallied against you and coach would hold one back from you. Even used red pen to write you on the paper. Seems dumb but was dramatic at the time  😂