Wide Receiver Outlook

[Lodestar]

14 hours ago, Greg C. said:

I wouldn't call him a horrible returner. He was third in the league in punt return average at 12.0 yards, including a big return against Cleveland that saved the game. He had some horrible decision-making though. He's the only returner I've ever seen field a punt in the end zone. Maybe with experience he won't make those bad decisions anymore, and he'll be worth keeping on the roster as a punt returner. They kept Janis for several years just because he was such a good gunner, so it's not out of the question. I agree that there's not much hope for Davis as a receiver though. 

IMO, from the very first preseason game Davis was trying to do too much. It was as if he knew his only opportunity to make a difference would be returning punts, and that led him to take some chances and make some very bad decisions. Like you said, he is unquestionably a talented returner. I doubt he makes the team this year though.

[MacReady]

Trevor Davis was third in the league in punt return average and 7th in kick return average and people seriously need to stop complaining about him.  It's so effing annoying to see so many complaints about his punt returning when he was 3rd and 7th and he was probably literally told to be more aggressive in punt/kick returning considering we had Brett effing Hundley at QB.

It just gets so old with some of these things.  People act like finding a returner who can be 7th and 3rd in kick/punt returns is as easy as flipping through a Rolodex. 

And I swear to God if I see one more person complain about his fumbling on returns, I will lose my ever loving mind. 

[Scoremore]

22 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

Trevor Davis was third in the league in punt return average and 7th in kick return average and people seriously need to stop complaining about him.  It's so effing annoying to see so many complaints about his punt returning when he was 3rd and 7th and he was probably literally told to be more aggressive in punt/kick returning considering we had Brett effing Hundley at QB.

It just gets so old with some of these things.  People act like finding a returner who can be 7th and 3rd in kick/punt returns is as easy as flipping through a Rolodex. 

And I swear to God if I see one more person complain about his fumbling on returns, I will lose my ever loving mind. 

You are just quoting stats.  What I saw on the field was a different story.  He routinely brought out kicks from deep in the end zone leaving the offense in poor starting field position.  Drove me nuts.  If he'd take a knee we get the ball at the 25.  Instead he runs one out from 5 yrs inside the endzone to the 15.  Great a 20yrd return!  Big deal he cost us 10 yrds in starting field position. Also he'd field punts inside the 7 yrd line.  He sucked at judging the ball as well.  He's let some punts roll for 25 yrds instead of coming up and making a fair catch.  Sure he broke a few off which skewed his average.  Personally I didn't like him back there.  Certainly not enough to keep on the roster.  If he can develop his WR skills and clean up mistakes in the return game great.  Keep him.  If not send him down the road.  Don't like guys running sideways on returns either.  A good returner doesn't dance he takes the ball straight up the field.  

[Spartacus]

4 minutes ago, Scoremore said:

You are just quoting stats.  What I saw on the field was a different story.  He routinely brought out kicks from deep in the end zone leaving the offense in poor starting field position.  Drove me nuts.  If he'd take a knee we get the ball at the 25.  Instead he runs one out from 5 yrs inside the endzone to the 15.  Great a 20yrd return!  Big deal he cost us 10 yrds in starting field position. Also he'd field punts inside the 7 yrd line.  He sucked at judging the ball as well.  He's let some punts roll for 25 yrds instead of coming up and making a fair catch.  Sure he broke a few off which skewed his average.  Personally I didn't like him back there.  Certainly not enough to keep on the roster.  If he can develop his WR skills and clean up mistakes in the return game great.  Keep him.  If not send him down the road.  Don't like guys running sideways on returns either.  A good returner doesn't dance he takes the ball straight up the field.  

I think this is overplayed and was at least partly by design. Our offense was so anemic last year I have no doubt that McCarthy wanted him to be aggressive during his returns. I do agree though that some of the balls he did not fair catch and instead watched role were brutal. I would be fine to give him another year to prove his worth as a returner. People are way too hard on him around here. 

[MacReady]

Just now, Scoremore said:

You are just quoting stats.  What I saw on the field was a different story.  He routinely brought out kicks from deep in the end zone leaving the offense in poor starting field position.  Drove me nuts.  If he'd take a knee we get the ball at the 25.  Instead he runs one out from 5 yrs inside the endzone to the 15.  Great a 20yrd return!  Big deal he cost us 10 yrds in starting field position. Also he'd field punts inside the 7 yrd line.  He sucked at judging the ball as well.  He's let some punts roll for 25 yrds instead of coming up and making a fair catch.  Sure he broke a few off which skewed his average.  Personally I didn't like him back there.  Certainly not enough to keep on the roster.  If he can develop his WR skills and clean up mistakes in the return game great.  Keep him.  If not send him down the road.  Don't like guys running sideways on returns either.  A good returner doesn't dance he takes the ball straight up the field.  

No, I'm looking at facts.  He was factually the third best at return average on punt returns and 7th best on kickoff returns.

I don't give a flying darn how many times he took the ball out of the endzone because if you think for one minute that his coaches kept telling him not to, that he kept doing it anyway, and that he stayed on the field in spite of doing the opposite of what he was told, I have beachfront property in Arizona to sell you.

For us with Hundley, starting at the 25 was really no different than starting at the 10.  We sucked on offense.  Thus, our offense needed a spark, and the 7th best kick returner and 3rd best punt returner provides a spark.  Look at our offensive statistics with Hundley and you'll see why Davis was constantly taking risks.  It's about a risk/reward ratio. 

And finally, it's about perspective, and nobody has it.  PERSPECTIVE.

If you think Davis is the only punt returner who misjudged balls and took some out of the endzone, you're flat wrong.  Plain and simple, and that's unavoidably true. 

Jabril Peppers, for example.  He averaged 6 yards a return.  He remained their punt returner because IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND A GOOD PUNT RETURNER.

The difference between 2nd and 3rd was .5 yards per return.  The difference between Davis and the next best was 1.2 yards. 

Trevor Davis is a good punt returner.  That's not "my eyes told me so," that's based on facts, perspective and understanding the nature of the NFL in which 32 teams are trying to find a good punt returner when there are maybe 4 good punt returners in the NFL every year.  We have one. 

[Lodestar]

9 minutes ago, HorizontoZenith said:

No, I'm looking at facts.  He was factually the third best at return average on punt returns and 7th best on kickoff returns.

I don't give a flying darn how many times he took the ball out of the endzone because if you think for one minute that his coaches kept telling him not to, that he kept doing it anyway, and that he stayed on the field in spite of doing the opposite of what he was told, I have beachfront property in Arizona to sell you.

For us with Hundley, starting at the 25 was really no different than starting at the 10.  We sucked on offense.  Thus, our offense needed a spark, and the 7th best kick returner and 3rd best punt returner provides a spark.  Look at our offensive statistics with Hundley and you'll see why Davis was constantly taking risks.  It's about a risk/reward ratio. 

And finally, it's about perspective, and nobody has it.  PERSPECTIVE.

If you think Davis is the only punt returner who misjudged balls and took some out of the endzone, you're flat wrong.  Plain and simple, and that's unavoidably true. 

Jabril Peppers, for example.  He averaged 6 yards a return.  He remained their punt returner because IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND A GOOD PUNT RETURNER.

The difference between 2nd and 3rd was .5 yards per return.  The difference between Davis and the next best was 1.2 yards. 

Trevor Davis is a good punt returner.  That's not "my eyes told me so," that's based on facts, perspective and understanding the nature of the NFL in which 32 teams are trying to find a good punt returner when there are maybe 4 good punt returners in the NFL every year.  We have one. 

I agree Davis is a talented punt returner, but it's misleading to trot out this "7th-best kickoff returner" business. He was 7th out of the 12 players who qualified (20+ returns). If you include guys with 10+ returns (Kamara, McKinnon, Cordarrelle Patterson, etc.) he falls all the way to 19th.

A 22.8 average on kickoff returns is not very good. For reference, Jeremy Ross's career average is 24.4 yards. Jeff Janis's is 24.7.

[MacReady]

Just now, Lodestar said:

I agree Davis is a talented punt returner, but it's misleading to trot out this "7th-best kickoff returner" business. He was 7th out of the 12 players who qualified (20+ returns). If you include guys with 10+ returns (Kamara, McKinnon, Cordarrelle Patterson, etc.) he falls all the way to 19th.

A 22.8 average on kickoff returns is not very good. For reference, Jeremy Ross's career average is 24.4 yards. Jeff Janis's is 24.7.

There's a reason why it only tracks players with at least 20 returns...

Out of the five players who had 30 or more kick returns, Davis was THIRD. 

McKinnon had 12 kick returns.  Kamara had 11 returns.    Patterson had 19 kick returns.  Davis had 31.  I know you know what more returns does to an average. 

There's no way anybody can look at this, look at the situation (Hundley, etc), use perspective in terms of the nature of the NFL and see Davis as anything other than a top five returner in this league.  There are plenty of ways to consider Davis not a top five returner, or even a bad returner, but not a single one of those ways implements perspective, looks at the facts or takes the situation into account.
 

[MacReady]

Just now, Lodestar said:

A 22.8 average on kickoff returns is not very good. For reference, Jeremy Ross's career average is 24.4 yards. Jeff Janis's is 24.7.

I missed this.  Jeff Janis had 23 career kick returns.  Davis had 31 last year alone.  Janis averaged 14.3 yards per return on three returns last year.  19.8 on 6 returns the year before.  And Jeremy Ross was... A good returner.  In fact, Ross's career average puts him at 90th best ALL TIME.  Davis's current mark of 22.7 yards per return on kickoff returns puts him at 188th all time.  Think about that for a minute.  An average of 30 teams, 30 punt returners over 100 years of football, and Davis is 188th all time. 

Davis' current yardage per punt return puts him at... 4th all time.  ALL TIME.  If he maintains where he's at right now, he'd end up 4th all-time in NFL history. 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/punt_ret_yds_per_ret_career.htm

This conversation needs to be over.  Davis is a good returner. 

[Lodestar]

1 minute ago, HorizontoZenith said:

There's a reason why it only tracks players with at least 20 returns...

Out of the five players who had 30 or more kick returns, Davis was THIRD. 

McKinnon had 12 kick returns.  Kamara had 11 returns.    Patterson had 19 kick returns.  Davis had 31.  I know you know what more returns does to an average. 

There's no way anybody can look at this, look at the situation (Hundley, etc), use perspective in terms of the nature of the NFL and see Davis as anything other than a top five returner in this league.  There are plenty of ways to consider Davis not a top five returner, or even a bad returner, but not a single one of those ways implements perspective, looks at the facts or takes the situation into account.
 

So he was middle of the pack among guys with 20+ returns, and middle of the pack among guys with 30+. I assume you're not using his high number of kick returns as a measure of his ability, especially when as you've said yourself he was probably encouraged to bring kicks out of the end zone — which, if anything, ought to increase his average...

Again, I think he's a talented PR, but a 22.8 KOR average is quite poor. Just looking at years 2011-2015, after they moved kickoffs to the 35 but before they brought touchbacks up to the 25, Davis's numbers would have placed him 21st (out of 28), 23rd (out of 24), 18th (out of 24), 20th (out of 22), and 13th (out of 14). I don't see how you can argue that's good.

[MacReady]

Just now, Lodestar said:

So he was middle of the pack among guys with 20+ returns, and middle of the pack among guys with 30+. I assume you're not using his high number of kick returns as a measure of his ability, especially when as you've said yourself he was probably encouraged to bring kicks out of the end zone — which, if anything, ought to increase his average...

Why do you think only five players HAD 30 or more returns? 

Quote

Just looking at years 2011-2015, after they moved kickoffs to the 35 but before they brought touchbacks up to the 25, Davis's numbers would have placed him 21st (out of 28), 23rd (out of 24), 18th (out of 24), 20th (out of 22), and 13th (out of 14). I don't see how you can argue that's good.

You're using Trevor's numbers now and comparing them to a time when kickoffs were completely and utterly different than they are now?  Davis wasn't even in the NFL then and you're using those numbers against him?  Do you understand how that makes no sense whatsoever? 

If you compared Matt Ryan's numbers to quarterbacks in the years 1930-1970, he's the best QB to ever play the game.  Do you see how absurd it is to use numbers of wildly different eras in terms of rules of the game against a player outside of that era? 

 

[Lodestar]

Agree to disagree. I'm done. Your arguments make no sense to me.

[MacReady]

Just now, Lodestar said:

Agree to disagree. I'm done. Your arguments make no sense to me.

What part about it makes no sense?  Saying that using numbers from 2011-2015 (when kickoffs were completely different) to call a player who started in 2016 average or below average makes no sense?  If you want to use different years to compare this year, use all-time numbers.  In the history of the NFL, Davis would rank 188th all-time in kick return yardage.  In NFL history. 

In 2014, 19 players averaged over 23 yards per return.
In 2017, 6 players averaged over 23 yards per return.

If you can't see how that disparity is clearly due to the new kickoff rules, I'm glad you're done. 

 

 

[Joe]

8 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

In shocking news, players playing against college competition look better than player playing against pro competition. More at 11

Except Trevor Davis didn't exactly stand out compared with the others. That was the point which you clearly missed.

[Greg C.]

I don't think kickoff return average is even worth arguing about. That play has been neutered by the league and is not much of a factor anymore. But Davis is a talented punt returner and could earn a roster spot almost solely because of that. During the McCarthy era, finding good return men has not been a high priority, but that could change, especially with a new GM in place. 

[AlexGreen#20]

2 hours ago, Joe said:

Except Trevor Davis didn't exactly stand out compared with the others. That was the point which you clearly missed.

You think MVS looked significantly more refined on tape in school than Trevor Davis did?

First of all, Kudos for finding enough MVS film to be able to form an educated opinion.

Second, you make this distinction based on what comparison? What advanced skillet did MVS display that got you so excited?

Or far more likely you just don't like Davis, want the rookies to replace him, and therefore you report it as an observation that they're all superior prospects.