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HorizontoZenith

Wide Receiver Outlook

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Jordy Nelson

Career: 530 receptions, 7,700 yards, 14.6 yards per catch and 69 touchdowns in nine years. 

Age and condition: Turns 33 in May.  Had a surgery two years ago, but otherwise has been healthy.  Doesn't have the speed he used to.

Contract: Becomes a free agent in 2019.  11.5 million this year, 12.5 million next year. 

Projection: Jordy is still a wildly talented NFL receiver that brings a LOT to this team.  He's no longer a deep threat, but he's still capable of 100 catch, 100 yard or 12 TD seasons primarily due to his knowledge of the system, trust with Rodgers, veteran experience and NFL best ability in the red zone.  I think you can look at Larry Fitzgerald's last two years as a realistic expectation for Jordy Nelson's next two years. 

Randall Cobb

Career: 402 receptions, 4,800 yards, 12.6 yards per catch, 36 touchdowns in 7 years. 

Age and condition: Turns 28 in August.  Has remained mostly healthy throughout his career apart from a few nagging injury seasons and a rib injury a couple years back.

Contract: Becomes a free agent in 2019.  12.6 million this year, 12.75 million next year with 3.25 million dead money if we cut him. 

Projection: Cobb's game does not fit this team I don't think.  He's a weapon and a mismatch if used properly, but he's not used properly I don't think, and his game is not worth 12.75 million next year.  He's still capable of big, even huge games as proven by his three touchdown and 100 yard game in the playoffs against the Giants just last year.  He might be worth his experience alone if we don't have a plan to replace his production, but he has not lived up to his contract.  He has virtually no value other than a slot/gimmick receiver, and if Jordy Nelson becomes a permanent slot option, that makes Cobb even less valuable.  Cobb isn't a trade option because of the size of that contract.  My opinion is that if McCarthy is back next year, Cobb shouldn't be.  If we get a new head coach (unlikely), I'd be very interested to see how he'd use Cobb. 

Davante Adams

Career: 205 receptions, 11.8 yards per catch, 2400 yards and 22 touchdowns in 4 years. 

Age and condition: Turns 25 a day before Christmas, so he has terrible luck.  Consider all the cheap people in his life who try to combine his birthday with Christmas. 

Contract: Becomes a free agent after this year.  The better he does this year, the less likely he is to come back, but I think he's pretty likely to come back barring a major display of Jenningsitis.  Can probably assume 10 million a year minimum for him. 

Projection: Davante Adams is an all-pro in this league if the only thing that's measured is quickness.  He's got elite route running ability and quickness with some incredible leaping ability, but he lacks in other areas.  Has performance lapses, doesn't have top end speed and is an average receiver outside of those aforementioned skillsets.  Even with Hundley in, he's still performing at a high level. 

Others

Career: Not even a season's worth to talk about if you combined all their games and production. 

Age and Condition: Young. 

Contract: Janis is up this year, Davis has probably two more years, Allison I don't know. 

Projection: Jeff Janis is not a receiver, he's a special teams specialist that gets on offense sometimes.  Allison, though a fan favorite, has minimal potential.  He's long, slender with a knack for coming up big, but he's not a starter level talent.  Trevor Davis is still little.  Might become something in year three, but it won't be much since if he had what else it takes he'd get on the field in spite of his littleness. 

Positional Outlook:

There are three ways the future of this position can go in my opinion. 

First, we can re-sign Davante Adams.  That, I think, is the preferred option.  Although I dislike his limitations, I think it's important we bring him back so that we don't get into a situation where receiver is a crippling area of weakness.  If we re-sign Davante, I think it's a perfect time to use a second or third round pick on our future #2, eventual #1 receiver.  This option would have us looking at Adams, Nelson, Cobb, rookie as our depth chart heading into 2018. 

Second, we don't re-sign Adams.  This is the high alert option.  If Adams leaves, signing a receiver becomes a legitimate need in free agency, not the draft.  In this scenario, cutting Cobb becomes a necessity in order to sign somebody else.  Jeffery and Watkins are the primary options of this scenario.  Second tier options include Jordan Matthews, Jarvis Landry, Jeremy Kerley, Paul Richardson, Marqise Lee. 

Third, we don't re-sign Adams, but we don't cut Cobb.  This would result in a low key signing of somebody like Decker, Ammendola, Wright, Quick, Moncrief...

Prediction:

Davante Adams, Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, third round rookie. 

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That's pretty much where I'm at. I want to resign Adams, maybe even extend Nelson another couple years as well. I understand no one likes Cobb's contract, but if you cut him, you are left with basically only 2 ready options in the passing game. 

 

Signing Adams or not, if you cut Cobb, you need to add a vet. Either way, you need a young guy to develop as a starter in a year also.

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Adams has a knack for getting open and can juke his way to getting extra yards.  Jordy might not be as fast as he once was but is a smart, wily veteran.  Cobb has his moments but can disappear for stretches during games.  It would be nice to have a WR with speed and height that a defenses have to account for.  These kinds of WRs are usually high picks but I don't know if we want Ted to spend a valuable high pick on this position right now.

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1 hour ago, Pugger said:

It would be nice to have a WR with speed and height that a defenses have to account for.  These kinds of WRs are usually high picks but I don't know if we want Ted to spend a valuable high pick on this position right now.

I'm really upset with myself because back when I was purposely not posting here for superstitious reasons before Rodgers got hurt, I found an article that outlined how and why so many first round receivers are busting while later round receivers are thriving.  It's like it was a dream or something because I haven't been able to find it, but it made so many amazing points that I'm surprised somebody else didn't post it here and tag me in the post.

Basically, it said that height and speed are drafted in the first round regardless of actual talent and that actual talent is in later rounds, it's just passed over for height and speed.  Our future at WR doesn't need to be a first round pick, we just can't really afford to try to hit on 5th-7th round picks this year.  We have to go 2nd-4th round to get our future WR. 

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1 minute ago, HorizontoZenith said:

I'm really upset with myself because back when I was purposely not posting here for superstitious reasons before Rodgers got hurt, I found an article that outlined how and why so many first round receivers are busting while later round receivers are thriving.  It's like it was a dream or something because I haven't been able to find it, but it made so many amazing points that I'm surprised somebody else didn't post it here and tag me in the post.

Basically, it said that height and speed are drafted in the first round regardless of actual talent and that actual talent is in later rounds, it's just passed over for height and speed.  Our future at WR doesn't need to be a first round pick, we just can't really afford to try to hit on 5th-7th round picks this year.  We have to go 2nd-4th round to get our future WR. 

All 3 of our starting WRs right now were taken in the 2nd round.

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34 minutes ago, RoellPreston88 said:

McCarthy should be embarrassed about how he chooses to use Cobb. He’d catch 80 balls for Payton or BB 

So would Monty. Aaron doesn't want to dink and dunk, I think that's apparent by now. Continue to blame Mac though.

Cobb has lost a bit of speed for sure, he used to be a threat on the post and the wheel route and that's not so much there anymore. 

I have no issue keeping him next year and offering him something like 2/12 after if he continues to show a knack for getting open in the scramble game.

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Just now, Packerraymond said:

So would Monty. Aaron doesn't want to dink and dunk, I think that's apparent by now. Continue to blame Mac though.

More people gotta see this by now.  It's not like McCarthy tells Rodgers to not throw to Randall Cobb or his running backs.  Rodgers just doesn't.  He's allergic to throwing a dump off pass.  It sucks because Cobb isn't a bad receiver right now, he's just not the right receiver for Rodgers. 

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Just now, HorizontoZenith said:

More people gotta see this by now.  It's not like McCarthy tells Rodgers to not throw to Randall Cobb or his running backs.  Rodgers just doesn't.  He's allergic to throwing a dump off pass.  It sucks because Cobb isn't a bad receiver right now, he's just not the right receiver for Rodgers. 

He's great in the scramble drill, that's probably Aaron's favorite thing. So while he's not used properly within the play, he's better than Davante at getting open on the school yard plays.

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Honestly Adams doesn't have much limitations, he can stretch the field if he wants to, guy might be the best weapon on this team rn.

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57 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

So would Monty. Aaron doesn't want to dink and dunk, I think that's apparent by now. Continue to blame Mac though.

Cobb has lost a bit of speed for sure, he used to be a threat on the post and the wheel route and that's not so much there anymore. 

I have no issue keeping him next year and offering him something like 2/12 after if he continues to show a knack for getting open in the scramble game.

Okay that’s fair

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I'd vote for cutting cobb and signing someone like dontrelle inman or kendall wright.  That still leaves you with 5-8 million to pick up a tight end or O-lineman.

 

I have mixed feeling on Adams still.  He's performed just enough to where I wouldn't be too upset with the massive deal he's sure to get.  I remain EXTREMELY curious as to whether average NFL athlete WRs (who are good football players) could come to GB and have a lot of success.  I hope we get to find out some day.

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8 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

So would Monty. Aaron doesn't want to dink and dunk, I think that's apparent by now. Continue to blame Mac though.

Cobb has lost a bit of speed for sure, he used to be a threat on the post and the wheel route and that's not so much there anymore. 

I have no issue keeping him next year and offering him something like 2/12 after if he continues to show a knack for getting open in the scramble game.

MM could hold Rodgers accountable for not taking what the D is giving.  But MM routinely speaks about explosive plays, so MM and Rodgers can share the "blame " equally.

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22 hours ago, squire12 said:

MM could hold Rodgers accountable for not taking what the D is giving.  But MM routinely speaks about explosive plays, so MM and Rodgers can share the "blame " equally.

I don't know if talking about explosive plays means he advocates passing up the underneath constantly though

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I think Davante is a definite must sign .. he's still producing despite Rodgers being injured.  Not sure what's up with Nelson .. not seeing a whole lot of effort out of him since Rodgers went down .. no chemistry whatsoever with Hundley.  Cobb ... he's got to go.  Allison showed some signs the past few years .. now it seems like is a complete afterthought.  I don't see much future in Trevor Davis .. at least he's speedy.  Janis is what he is .. average special teamer .. not a real factor on offense.  I think we need to draft at least one WR fairly high .. 2nd or 3rd round, and I think we could use a bargain free agent or some sort.  Maybe we could strike gold with a Jordan Matthews or Sammy Watkins .. long shot.

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