Jared Goff is... .good? Draft (WEEK 5)

[davisblack]

If they take Anderson top 3, I wouldn't mind taking a hard look at Hendon Hooker with the Rams pick. He'll be 25 on draft day, but he's been dominating the SEC this year and he was excellent last year too.

SI released a mock today with him going #2 which seems way too high at this point IMO, but depending on how he finishes the season it wouldn't be out of the question. I bet a lot of teams will be scared off because of his age though.

[LionArkie]

27 minutes ago, davisblack said:

If they take Anderson top 3, I wouldn't mind taking a hard look at Hendon Hooker with the Rams pick. He'll be 25 on draft day, but he's been dominating the SEC this year and he was excellent last year too.

SI released a mock today with him going #2 which seems way too high at this point IMO, but depending on how he finishes the season it wouldn't be out of the question. I bet a lot of teams will be scared off because of his age though.

I was curious about hooker as well, but I haven’t seen him play. There are several options for qb, or so it seems, in the first two rounds. Jefferson could be another, some here seem to think Levis will go later, but personally I think he’s going to climb. I’m not at all opposed to Anderson, but I think if we are going to qb, this is the year. My #1 is stroud and it’s not close, but as said I’m good with others as well.

[Karnage84]

1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

He will be 23 when drafted, 28 when his contract ends.

He's going to be 24 the day the season starts. You're talking about a guy that will be nearly 29 at the end of his rookie contract. 

Jared Goff just turned 28 (October 14th) and is currently in his 7th season. 

[Sllim Pickens]

14 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

He's going to be 24 the day the season starts. You're talking about a guy that will be nearly 29 at the end of his rookie contract. 

Jared Goff just turned 28 (October 14th) and is currently in his 7th season. 

I really don't care tbh.  he should be able to play until he is 34-35.  If I can get 10-12 years out of a QB, great.  I am more worried about the next 3-5 years than trying to plan for 2032.  Joe Burrow was 23 when drafted, was 24 during his rookie season, and he had 1 good year in college.  Would you have taken Joe Burrow to be your QB?  I would in a heart beat.  Its about the players ability as long as its within reason (Weeden and Weinke were too old).  

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I really don't care tbh.  he should be able to play until he is 34-35.  If I can get 10-12 years out of a QB, great.  I am more worried about the next 3-5 years than trying to plan for 2032.  Joe Burrow was 23 when drafted, was 24 during his rookie season, and he had 1 good year in college.  Would you have taken Joe Burrow to be your QB?  I would in a heart beat.  Its about the players ability as long as its within reason (Weeden and Weinke were too old).  

Sure - if a guy like that had just played one of the greatest college seasons ever while winning the National Championship and the Heisman.. yeah... I'd take that. If we're talking your average 1st round prospect without all of those accolades, it bring an element of concern and questions about his ceiling. 

I'm looking at the next 3-5 as well as the next contract. 

CJ Stroud is currently 21 with an October birthday. He'll be 22 part way of the year into next year. 

• Year 1 - 22
• Year 2 - 23
• Year 3 - 24
• Year 4 - 25
• Year 5 - 26 5th Year Option

Assuming he pans out and you re-sign him, he'll be 31 by the time his second 5 year contract finishes out. The expectation would also be that he's going to continue to grow in his body and mature as a player. If we're looking to draft a guy beyond what Goff is (outside of just pure cap savings), that seems to be the way to go about it. 

[Sllim Pickens]

Just now, Karnage84 said:

Sure - if a guy like that had just played one of the greatest college seasons ever while winning the National Championship and the Heisman.. yeah... I'd take that. If we're talking your average 1st round prospect without all of those accolades, it bring an element of concern and questions about his ceiling. 

I'm looking at the next 3-5 as well as the next contract. 

CJ Stroud is currently 21 with an October birthday. He'll be 22 part way of the year into next year. 

• Year 1 - 22
• Year 2 - 23
• Year 3 - 24
• Year 4 - 25
• Year 5 - 26 5th Year Option

Assuming he pans out and you re-sign him, he'll be 31 by the time his second 5 year contract finishes out. The expectation would also be that he's going to continue to grow in his body and mature as a player. If we're looking to draft a guy beyond what Goff is (outside of just pure cap savings), that seems to be the way to go about it. 

Again, you are way to future focused IMO.  If a top QB earns a 5th year and second contract, that is great.  If he makes it through that next contract, even better.  If he is 33 at that point, and you want to move on to someone else, great.  But for the 5 years of that rookie deal, Levis will be cheap and his age will only impact how long his second contract is.  

Levis is not having a Joe Burrow senior season, but he has great tools and nobody to throw to.  He doesn't have Chase and Justin Jefferson to throw to at Kentucky.  What he does have is tools similar to Burrow that should lead to quality play when surrounded by more talent.  I see Levis being better than Goff.  Significantly better, who knows but I think he will be better.  That and 30M in cap savings over the next five years is a big deal.  Its a really big deal to this staff who needs talent all around to keep their jobs.  So if they can get similar talent to Goff right now and add 3 or 4 other starters on D, we would be a better team.  We may not end up with Mahomes or Allen but there is a reason there is only one or two of those types of players every 10 or so years.  

[Karnage84]

6 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Again, you are way to future focused IMO.  If a top QB earns a 5th year and second contract, that is great.  If he makes it through that next contract, even better.  If he is 33 at that point, and you want to move on to someone else, great.  But for the 5 years of that rookie deal, Levis will be cheap and his age will only impact how long his second contract is.  

Levis is not having a Joe Burrow senior season, but he has great tools and nobody to throw to.  He doesn't have Chase and Justin Jefferson to throw to at Kentucky.  What he does have is tools similar to Burrow that should lead to quality play when surrounded by more talent.  I see Levis being better than Goff.  Significantly better, who knows but I think he will be better.  That and 30M in cap savings over the next five years is a big deal.  Its a really big deal to this staff who needs talent all around to keep their jobs.  So if they can get similar talent to Goff right now and add 3 or 4 other starters on D, we would be a better team.  We may not end up with Mahomes or Allen but there is a reason there is only one or two of those types of players every 10 or so years.  

The Lions FO believe that Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes will solve the Lions issues and build a winning culture. They've given them a 5 and 6 year contract which does mean they have time to work out issues but we also need to see progression. 

Drafting an older prospect now may help in the short term but then we'd just be back to seeing if another, younger guy that we can build around will be available. Drafting a young guy essentially resets the clock in many ways and allows the team to continue to build out the roster. They would likely be given until about Year 3 of that QB's development, which would line up with Year 5 (assuming he's taken in 2023) of the current regimes contracts. 

[LionArkie]

2 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

The Lions FO believe that Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes will solve the Lions issues and build a winning culture. They've given them a 5 and 6 year contract which does mean they have time to work out issues but we also need to see progression. 

Drafting an older prospect now may help in the short term but then we'd just be back to seeing if another, younger guy that we can build around will be available. Drafting a young guy essentially resets the clock in many ways and allows the team to continue to build out the roster. They would likely be given until about Year 3 of that QB's development, which would line up with Year 5 (assuming he's taken in 2023) of the current regimes contracts. 

The goal is to win in that 5 or 6 year period. If we were winning with a 29 year old qb I’d be absolutely fine with it. This post almost reads as if the purpose is continual rebuild. Maybe I’m reading more into your post than I should, but I’d draft Kurt Warner today at 73 years of age with the number 1 pick if it allowed me to win a sb within 5 years. As sllim said, I’d be absolutely good with a qb for 10-12 years. What’s the difference if I take a 25 year old qb and play him right away, or draft a 23.5 year old qb and sit him on the bench for a year? Both options are viable and get you a qb on the field at 25.

Edited October 31, 2022 by LionArkie

[LionArkie]

Also, I’d say if age and longevity are the issues, then you better not look at a dual threat qb. I don’t believe they last as long.

[Sllim Pickens]

20 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

The Lions FO believe that Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes will solve the Lions issues and build a winning culture. They've given them a 5 and 6 year contract which does mean they have time to work out issues but we also need to see progression. 

Drafting an older prospect now may help in the short term but then we'd just be back to seeing if another, younger guy that we can build around will be available. Drafting a young guy essentially resets the clock in many ways and allows the team to continue to build out the roster. They would likely be given until about Year 3 of that QB's development, which would line up with Year 5 (assuming he's taken in 2023) of the current regimes contracts. 

The staff was given a 6 year deal but if we finish this season 1-16, DC wont make it to year 3.  They hired him before they hired Holmes, so Holmes has some leeway IMO but DC has to show progress to keep getting chances.  Whether he takes a QB or not, he doesnt have 5 or 6 years to make this work.  At most he has next year.  

Drafting an older prospect does not mean we will be back looking to replace them anytime soon.  Levis is 23, 24 when the season starts, thats not old.  If he is good, he will be resigned through his age 35 season.  That's 10-11 years of solid QB play.  I will take that.   Being worried about what the guy is going to be like on his third contract is pointless IMO because most likely nobody on the team or staff currently will be here in 10-11 years.  Would I rather have a younger prospect? Absolutely.  Will I draft someone who grades worse because they are a year or two younger?  Not a chance.  If Levis tests out and looks to be worth a first round pick, you take him.  Similar to Kenny Pickett last year (I had other issues about Pickett, his age was not close to the top of that list).  I get not wanting him over Anderson or Young or Stroud, but if he is there with our second 1st or if we feel he is worth trading up for, than do it.  

[Nnivolcm]

I think worrying a QB might be to old to sign to a 4th contract is a pretty silly reason to skip on a prospect.

[Karnage84]

16 hours ago, LionArkie said:

The goal is to win in that 5 or 6 year period. If we were winning with a 29 year old qb I’d be absolutely fine with it. This post almost reads as if the purpose is continual rebuild. Maybe I’m reading more into your post than I should, but I’d draft Kurt Warner today at 73 years of age with the number 1 pick if it allowed me to win a sb within 5 years. As sllim said, I’d be absolutely good with a qb for 10-12 years. What’s the difference if I take a 25 year old qb and play him right away, or draft a 23.5 year old qb and sit him on the bench for a year? Both options are viable and get you a qb on the field at 25.

It's not that we're expected to be in a perpetual rebuild - it's with the intention of being the opposite. Drafting an older prospect and building a team around them means that we have a much shorter window for success and will have to look at potentially replacing them much sooner. If an older prospect has a higher floor but lower ceiling, then there's going to be the perpetual calls to find an upgrade which includes draft capital being spent. 

It's not that the QB is 23.5, a lot of the top level QB's in the league right now were drafted at 22 or under (Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Lamar). QB is the most important position in the game and having a top 5 guy in the league does hold a lot of value. I believe there's a much better shot at finding that guy when they're coming in as a younger prospect than as an older prospect. One tool in trying to uncover superstars in the evaluation process as draft prospects is by breakout age - the younger they are when they break out, the higher the probability they will be an elite level player when they enter the league. 

[Karnage84]

16 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The staff was given a 6 year deal but if we finish this season 1-16, DC wont make it to year 3.  They hired him before they hired Holmes, so Holmes has some leeway IMO but DC has to show progress to keep getting chances.  Whether he takes a QB or not, he doesnt have 5 or 6 years to make this work.  At most he has next year.  

Drafting an older prospect does not mean we will be back looking to replace them anytime soon.  Levis is 23, 24 when the season starts, thats not old.  If he is good, he will be resigned through his age 35 season.  That's 10-11 years of solid QB play.  I will take that.   Being worried about what the guy is going to be like on his third contract is pointless IMO because most likely nobody on the team or staff currently will be here in 10-11 years.  Would I rather have a younger prospect? Absolutely.  Will I draft someone who grades worse because they are a year or two younger?  Not a chance.  If Levis tests out and looks to be worth a first round pick, you take him.  Similar to Kenny Pickett last year (I had other issues about Pickett, his age was not close to the top of that list).  I get not wanting him over Anderson or Young or Stroud, but if he is there with our second 1st or if we feel he is worth trading up for, than do it.  

I'm not worried about the contract but more so about team building. Having the long-term option at QB allows you to free up other resources and build the roster around that player. 

I'm not talking about longevity of play but longevity of high-end/quality play. A team like the Packers has had a long history of success because of high-end/quality play from Rodgers for a long time. A lot of guys start to drop off in their 30's. 

I don't think Campbell or Holmes are going anywhere before the end of year 3 (or quite close to it). 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

I'm not worried about the contract but more so about team building. Having the long-term option at QB allows you to free up other resources and build the roster around that player. 

I'm not talking about longevity of play but longevity of high-end/quality play. A team like the Packers has had a long history of success because of high-end/quality play from Rodgers for a long time. A lot of guys start to drop off in their 30's. 

I don't think Campbell or Holmes are going anywhere before the end of year 3 (or quite close to it). 

The Packers were blessed with back to back great QBs.  And even then only won 2 SB in a 40 year span of 2 HOF QBs.  Yes having a HOF QB would be nice, but they got that by drafting Rodgers in the first round and trading for Favre, who was an early pick in the second round.  Of the top 20 QBs in terms of yards of all time, 14 were first round picks of which 8 were #1 overall and 4 more were top 10, 3 more were top 33 picks.  Warren Moon wasn't drafted because he signed with the CFL before the draft. So if you want that HOF stability at QB, the best chance of that is to draft one early in the first round.  Yes there is a chance for busts, a large chance.  But htats also where the greatest chance at greatness is.  So when you have a need and a chance to grab one, you have to take advantage of it. 

As for longevity of high level play, QBs are playing into their late 30s now.  Matt Ryan fell off at 35, Brees played to 41 with little fall off.  Brady at 45.  Rodgers at 39 starting to maybe fall off. Both Mannings to 37-38.  Rivers and Ben both were 11+ winning QBs at 38. Even guys like Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, and Matt Stafford are cruising right along at 34.  So if we get the right guy, I am not at all worried about them not playing 10 years from now.  If Levis tests well, interviews well etc, he very well could be worth an early pick and will be fine for 10-12 years.  

The Packers are extremely lucky, as were the Patriots.  Having a good QB allows you to win, no matter the players around them if you have a good coach (which I am not sure we do).  The Patriots were rarely the most talented team, but they had a coach who could develop plans and execute them and a QB who was great.  The Chiefs keep plugging in new bodies and they are there every year because of their great QB and good coach.  The Chargers have a great QB, tons of talent on defense and can't make the playoffs because they haven't found the right coach.   So either DC and company need to learn real quick on how to adjust and adapt on the fly, build better gameplans, and execute them or they wont be here by the end of year 3 no matter who the QB is.   

[Sllim Pickens]

Side note, I wanted Aaron Curry over Matt Stafford because I was scared of drafting a QB early with the bust rate, and I am glad that didn't happen.  As much as I love Anderson, its just not a smart play to pass on a potentially great QB for a potentially great OLB/Edge guy.  The teams in and winning the Sb have great QBs usually and its very rarely a DE/Edge guy leading them there.  TJ Watt and Myles Garrett are great, but they aren't taking over games and putting the team on their back to a Super Bowl.  Yes a pass rush helps in the playoffs, but its rarely the leagues best or a top 5 pick at DE leading his team there.