Jared Goff is... .good? Draft (WEEK 5)

[Karnage84]

We're 1-3 with the NFL's #1 offense and the 32nd defense. We're unlikely to see the offense continue on this trajectory (especially with all of the injuries we've had so far) and the defense is bad on a historic level. 

I believe that we'll settle as a top 12 offense by the end of the season while there isn't a ton of hope for major improvement from the defense. Either way, Jared Goff is not the issue and I believe that he has earned at least another year before we should be looking at adding in his eventual replacement. 

For draft board, I'm using this consensus big board. Some guys are going to rise and fall through the process. I have Lions with the #11 pick and the Rams with the #26 pick. 

https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/big-boards/2023/consensus-big-board-2023

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

11) Joey Porter Jr, CB, Penn State: Jeffrey Okudah has finally come around to be a force at the corner position. Oruwariye has regressed and is a UFA going into 2023. Porter has all of the physical tools to be a top level corner. He can also play inside in the slot if needed which does bring versatility to the group. 

26) Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida: An explosive 6'6, 313 lb DT. We need major help on the defensive line and getting penetration from the interior to open things up for Hutchinson and Harris. Dexter is more of a traditional 3T that can be slotted next to McNeill. 

42) Jordan Battle, SS, Alabama: Battle is a guy that will primarily play in the box but can be moved around as a chess piece. The Lions lack that hybrid safety/lb. He could be a poor man's Derwin James. Even with guys like Iffy and/or Kerby in the mix, there will be a place for Battle to make an impact on this defense

74) O'Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida: We're going to be looking to move on from Vaitai and his big contract soon enough. Torrence is big and powerful on the attack. 

106) Demarvion Overshown, ILB, Texas: A converted safety, Overshown has the size and athleticism for the modern LB in today's NFL. He might take a bit longer to develop into a starting role but has the potential to get there. 

138) Cameron Ward, QB, Washington State: Even if we aren't looking to add a potential QBOTF until at least 2024, we still need to add someone to the room to develop as a potential back-up (or maybe get lucky and wind up with a Dak Prescott/Jalen Hurts/Kirk Cousins). Ward has tools and upside to potentially be that guy. 

170) Jayden Reed, WR, Michigan State: Chark hasn't performed to expectations and he's only signed until end of 2023. We need to add WR depth and develop our #4 and #5 WR's behind ARSB and Jameson Williams. I like Reed's playmaking abilities although he lacks ideal physical size. 

174) D'Anthony Jones, DE/DT, Houston: Depth/developmental prospect that can play inside and outside. With the injuries to guys like Levi, Pascal and Cominsky it doesn't hurt to add talent to that position group. 

 

[jrry32]

You don't want Gervon Dexter, particularly in the first round. He's not very good. Been a complete disappointment this year. Torrence, on the other hand, is an absolute monster.

[Karnage84]

13 hours ago, jrry32 said:

You don't want Gervon Dexter, particularly in the first round. He's not very good. Been a complete disappointment this year. Torrence, on the other hand, is an absolute monster.

Interesting. I just used the draft board and then looked at some scouting reports (https://www.profootballnetwork.com/gervon-dexter-dt-florida-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/). 

Appreciate the feedback!

[Sllim Pickens]

11 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Interesting. I just used the draft board and then looked at some scouting reports (https://www.profootballnetwork.com/gervon-dexter-dt-florida-nfl-draft-scouting-report-2023/). 

Appreciate the feedback!

I did the same and thought he was someone who could move up based on athleticism and size.  Guess I will have to do more tape review later in the process to see if the struggles are his fault or people around him.  If he is double and tripled every down, I would expect a fall of in numbers but then others should be benefiting.  

Not sure Porter is my favorite pick that high but I definitely understand the position.  Side note, PFF has Porter ranked 74th and CB10 at the moment (They also have Tanner McKee as 17th overall).  Will depend somewhat on if we are able to resign AO reasonably 9if we even want to) and how Jacobs comes back from the knee injury.  I think with he turnover expected on the line next year (Okwara and Harris likely cut or at most only one more year) I would rather find another edge early and draft a CB later.  

Battle is a solid pick given Walker has a tough injury to come back from and we may lose Elliott next year.  I like Kerby as a prospect but he has a long ways to go before he would prevent me from drafting a similar player.  Plus as you said, Battle can be a LB hybrid type that we need since our LBs are so trash. 

The rest is solid and I love the focus on Defense and the O Line group.  Wouldn't mind another TE at some point in case we can't resign Hock or chose not to but not sure I would take away any of the other picks.    

[Karnage84]

26 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I did the same and thought he was someone who could move up based on athleticism and size.  Guess I will have to do more tape review later in the process to see if the struggles are his fault or people around him.  If he is double and tripled every down, I would expect a fall of in numbers but then others should be benefiting.  

Not sure Porter is my favorite pick that high but I definitely understand the position.  Side note, PFF has Porter ranked 74th and CB10 at the moment (They also have Tanner McKee as 17th overall).  Will depend somewhat on if we are able to resign AO reasonably 9if we even want to) and how Jacobs comes back from the knee injury.  I think with he turnover expected on the line next year (Okwara and Harris likely cut or at most only one more year) I would rather find another edge early and draft a CB later.  

Battle is a solid pick given Walker has a tough injury to come back from and we may lose Elliott next year.  I like Kerby as a prospect but he has a long ways to go before he would prevent me from drafting a similar player.  Plus as you said, Battle can be a LB hybrid type that we need since our LBs are so trash. 

The rest is solid and I love the focus on Defense and the O Line group.  Wouldn't mind another TE at some point in case we can't resign Hock or chose not to but not sure I would take away any of the other picks.    

We could definitely add another corner not named Porter at that position or take the DT at #11 and draft the corner at #26 (or even flip Battle and that CB at 42). I just decided to stick with the way the consensus board fell and stay pretty close to who was available in those spots. We've seen guys rise and fall through the draft process. I like the tools that Porter has to offer but you have to back that up with quality play. Still a lot of time left in the season to see how things shake out. 

We need penetration from the defensive interior. One suggestion I've heard for turning things around defensively is to essentially try and get two 3T's on the field at the same time; we could look for a stud NT and keep Allim at 3T. Some of the other guys I've seen in different draft boards weren't on this one in this area. 

I really feel like this defense is lacking that versatile chess piece guy. We're essentially playing a 4-2-5 and adding someone like Battle gives us a lot of flexibility and different looks. They can be that hybrid LB/S like you've referenced. We've had years of our LB's getting dashed in the passing game and I've wanted to add a Kyle Dugger, Jeremy Chinn type for the past 3-4 years. 

What I like most about doing these mocks is getting feedback on players and a better perspective on the team and its needs. Appreciate the feedback and the insight my man. 

[jrry32]

10 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I did the same and thought he was someone who could move up based on athleticism and size.  Guess I will have to do more tape review later in the process to see if the struggles are his fault or people around him.  If he is double and tripled every down, I would expect a fall of in numbers but then others should be benefiting.  

He's having to play a lot of snaps due to our lack of depth inside, and he does occasionally dominate. But he's been invisible for most of too many games this year. If you watch him against Kentucky, you'll think he's great. Meanwhile, if you watch the next two games (USF and Tennessee), you'll be wondering where on Day 3 he goes. He needs to step it up.

[Superduperman]

Not so fast on the Goff thing

[davisblack]

At this rate give me Stroud/Young/Levis and then all D for the rest of the draft.

[LionArkie]

Might not have to trade up to #1.

[Millenhater]

Taking a QB is probably the correct way to go but if we have the number one pick I’m taking Anderson and if our pick from the rams is anywhere near the top 10 I’m trading it and next years pick and getting Carter. If Hutch is the number 3 guy on our DLine I think that’s a team that can always compete. That and I’m not sold on the QBs

[Superduperman]

18 hours ago, Millenhater said:

Taking a QB is probably the correct way to go but if we have the number one pick I’m taking Anderson and if our pick from the rams is anywhere near the top 10 I’m trading it and next years pick and getting Carter. If Hutch is the number 3 guy on our DLine I think that’s a team that can always compete. That and I’m not sold on the QBs

There are no sure things, although Stroud and Young are close. I'd also take Anderson and then a QB later. The Rams pick could be in the 15-20 range the way things are going. 

[Karnage84]

On 10/9/2022 at 2:18 PM, Superduperman said:

Not so fast on the Goff thing

It did not age well.... 

[Karnage84]

The one thing that we do have to keep in mind is that we've had the #1 scoring offense (somewhat smoke and mirrors but still) for the first 4 weeks of the season. We had one bad week against the greatest HC of all time. Matt Patricia for all of his faults as a HC is a capable defensive mind and has had a hand in game planning in some big moments (Lions vs Patriots his first year as a HC, Pats vs Rams SB). This was absolutely a personal game for him and I have no doubt he had some involvement in the defensive game plan. 

This defense has been absolutely awful and is devoid of talent. I don't know if I would be trading away future 1sts such as @Millenhater has suggested but I'd definitely be open to back-to-back 1sts on the defensive side (even defensive line) vs taking a QB. 

I'd rather have a team with a lot of talent and then drop a QB into the mix who can develop. You pay your other guys while the QB's contract is still very manageable, build up the depth and then eventually we'll have to pay the QB. During that time, we should be able to compete and would have flexibility at the QB position (draft another guy if this isn't working or trade for a veteran).

[Lions017]

Goff is fine. He's average to slightly above and if you have good pieces around him he can win. 

I think that the issue is that he's also pretty expensive and a known quality. If you're fine with not having an elite QB then I guess you can try to win with him by building a great offense and defense. He's just not good enough to mask any glaring issues, so you have to be confident that you can put a great team around him, which is easier said than done. The cost is also up there too...if you are only getting a guy that's a bit above average, why not draft a cheap rookie to do the same thing? Goff just doesn't have any untapped upside after six or seven years in the league. 

Probably the best thing about Goff right now is that he's "good enough" to not force your hand. You can wait a year if you want to - either wait to draft a guy or let the rookie sit for a year. 

Edited October 11, 2022 by Lions017

[Karnage84]

1 minute ago, Lions017 said:

Goff is fine. He's average to slightly above and if you have good pieces around him he can win. 

I think that the issue is that he's also pretty expensive and a known quality. If you're fine with not having an elite QB then I guess you can try to win with him by building a great offense and defense. He's just not good enough to mask any glaring issues, so you have to be confident that you can put a great team around him, which is easier said than done. The cost is also up there too...if you are only getting a guy that's a bit above average, why not draft a cheap rookie to do the same thing? Goff just doesn't have any untapped upside after six or seven years in the league. 

Probably the best thing about Goff right now is that he's "good enough" to not force your hand. You can wait a year if you want to - either wait to draft a guy or let the rookie sit for a year. 

Which is ultimately my position/train of thought. He's good enough that we can win games with him. Build a roster up on both sides of the ball and then either a) draft his rookie replacement or b) trade for a veteran and drop them into a team that is built to "win now". 

We've already seen what it looks like we when we have "the guy" on our roster and then we keep trying to build around him with limited success. Stafford would get crushed due to poor OL play and/or he'd have to play hero ball because our defense was just awful. A team that has a top 10 offense and a middle of the pack defense (16th+/-) should be able to compete for a wildcard at the very least. We've seen teams with a ton of talent get a QB dropped into their lap take off. 

I'm willing to give Campbell and co. more time/patience IF we can see they have the tools to be able to get a team to that next level. If this is just a matter of a lack of talent but the coaching and scheme is there, give them time to build this thing up. So far, however, we are seeing some huge coaching failures at key times. Holmes has also had a couple big whiffs that has been hurting us so far.