Jared Goff is... .good? Draft (WEEK 5)

[Sllim Pickens]

I think if we are in a position to draft Stroud, I would.  I am iffy on Young but would probably grab him too if we had the chance.  Getting a QB with that elite potential would be huge and its hard to come by so if that situation were to arise, do it.  I would not trade up for either of them, and I don't think I would draft any other QB in the first at this point and use those picks to help out the defense.  We are currently pick 3, and likely will move down from there but if we finish bottom 4 and are guaranteed one of Stroud, Anderson, Young or Carter, it would help the defense.  But the sad part would be that we are drafting that high and DC and company are on the hot seat.  And I hate drafting QBs with coaches on the hot seat in case the next coach is not a fan of the QB.  

[Karnage84]

11 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think if we are in a position to draft Stroud, I would.  I am iffy on Young but would probably grab him too if we had the chance.  Getting a QB with that elite potential would be huge and its hard to come by so if that situation were to arise, do it.  I would not trade up for either of them, and I don't think I would draft any other QB in the first at this point and use those picks to help out the defense.  We are currently pick 3, and likely will move down from there but if we finish bottom 4 and are guaranteed one of Stroud, Anderson, Young or Carter, it would help the defense.  But the sad part would be that we are drafting that high and DC and company are on the hot seat.  And I hate drafting QBs with coaches on the hot seat in case the next coach is not a fan of the QB.  

I'm thinking that Campbell gets the full year 3 before he's truly on the hot seat. If that's the case and we do draft a guy like Stroud, you either play him (and extend the time horizon a bit longer) or he's sitting on the sidelines and you have no idea what you have in the guy. He'd probably get thrown into the mix halfway through the season. If we're still picking in the top 10 and MCDC is now potentially being fired, it's just going to be an absolute mess. 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

I'm thinking that Campbell gets the full year 3 before he's truly on the hot seat. If that's the case and we do draft a guy like Stroud, you either play him (and extend the time horizon a bit longer) or he's sitting on the sidelines and you have no idea what you have in the guy. He'd probably get thrown into the mix halfway through the season. If we're still picking in the top 10 and MCDC is now potentially being fired, it's just going to be an absolute mess. 

 

I agree, DC gets a full year 3 as of now but it depends on how the rest of this year goes.  I was much more optimistic but our schedule looks tougher now with NYG, Jags, Miami, and Jets all being better than expected.  Carolina and the Chicago games are the easiest games and if thats all we win, it would be a step back.  I am hoping with getting some guys back healthy that we make a push but it will be tough.  This past week was demoralizing on both sides of the ball and really killed my outlook on this team and the coaching staff.  We looked unprepared, unable to adjust, and made poor decisions again.  We need to make some fundamental changes on D during the bye week and our offense needs to figure out how to be somewhat consistent.   

As i said though, I wouldn't draft a 1st round QB if its outside of Young/Stroud with a lean towards Stroud given his size (the 6' QBs still scare me some).  Grab one later for depth and hope they develop if not but dont tie any potential future regime to someone like Levis if DC's seat is truly hot.  

[Karnage84]

Here is the 2023 NFL Draft order according to tankathon YTD

1) Carolina - Will need a QB

2) Las Vegas - Likely don't need a QB

3) Pittsburgh - Likely don't need a QB

4) Detroit

5) Washington - Will need a QB

6) Houston - Will need a QB

7) Atlanta - Will need a QB

8 ) Houston via Cleveland

9) Philadelphia via New Orleans - Don't need a QB

10) Seattle - Likely need a QB

11) Seattle via Denver

12) Arizona

13) Detroit via LA Rams

14) Cincinnati - Won't take a QB

15) New England - Won't take a QB

16) Jacksonville - Won't take a QB

17) Chicago - Could be looking at a QB

18) Indianapolis - Will trade this away for a washed up veteran

 

If we assume that Stroud is QB1, he's likely going to Carolina. This is going to leave us with either Bryce Young, Will Levis or the next QB up in the draft process. 

We could see Washington or Houston trade up ahead of Detroit to take either Young or Levis (or insert QB prospect here). 

[DrRay11]

Update: he's still not good

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, DrRay11 said:

Update: he's still not good

The Jared Goff fan club on a boat trip

 

[Louis Friend]

On 10/11/2022 at 7:24 AM, Sllim Pickens said:

Getting a QB with that elite potential would be huge and its hard to come by so if that situation were to arise, do it. 

This is where I've been all along. If Stroud/Young are your guy and they are available, you take them. Period. Will Anderson is nice and would make me question myself, but ultimately, if you need a QB and an elite prospect is there, you pull the trigger. After that, I want defense defense defense. Yes, it would be nice to grab a RT or TE or even RB, but IMO, our defense needs playmakers across the board. 

[Karnage84]

17 hours ago, Louis Friend said:

This is where I've been all along. If Stroud/Young are your guy and they are available, you take them. Period. Will Anderson is nice and would make me question myself, but ultimately, if you need a QB and an elite prospect is there, you pull the trigger. After that, I want defense defense defense. Yes, it would be nice to grab a RT or TE or even RB, but IMO, our defense needs playmakers across the board. 

I'd like to get an understanding of how draft experts view Stroud/Young and compare them to other top tier prospects that have come out in the past couple years. If we're getting Herbert comps... I'm in. If we're talking Fields... I'd rather go BPA and take Anderson. 

Even today, we've seen that Goff isn't the wholesale problem on this team and can move the ball with the right weapons. He's got a much shorter leash than I was initially giving him but I'd still prefer to build out other parts of the team (ie defense) and plug in a guy who is a mid-round pick in 2023 and/or then take a guy in 2024. 

[Lions017]

17 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I'd like to get an understanding of how draft experts view Stroud/Young and compare them to other top tier prospects that have come out in the past couple years. If we're getting Herbert comps... I'm in. If we're talking Fields... I'd rather go BPA and take Anderson. 

Even today, we've seen that Goff isn't the wholesale problem on this team and can move the ball with the right weapons. He's got a much shorter leash than I was initially giving him but I'd still prefer to build out other parts of the team (ie defense) and plug in a guy who is a mid-round pick in 2023 and/or then take a guy in 2024. 

I think that both guys are likely to be graded higher than Fields. 

The thing is that a rookie QB just has to be pretty decent - like what we have with Goff right now - to be super valuable. Is Trevor Lawrence playing significantly better than Jared Goff right now? No. But Lawrence has a cap hit of $8.4M and Goff's is $31.2M. Even if you draft a guy and he ends up being more of a Top 15 - Top 20 QB (like you could say Goff is) that still gives you a ton of money to save and spend on the defense or on some weapons to support him. 

I really just think that this is the year if we're in position. We are the perfect team to take a QB because we have a solid offense and you can even keep Goff out there for a season (or until the bye week or whatever) if they don't look ready right away. 

Mid-round picks at QB are such a long shot. It sounds like a good idea, and you can occasionally find a Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott, but more often than not if you want a QB you need to draft them in the first round. You aren't taking guys in the 3rd or 4th and counting on them to start one day. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Lions017

[Karnage84]

9 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

I think that both guys are likely to be graded higher than Fields. 

The thing is that a rookie QB just has to be pretty decent - like what we have with Goff right now - to be super valuable. Is Trevor Lawrence playing significantly better than Jared Goff right now? No. But Lawrence has a cap hit of $8.4M and Goff's is $31.2M. Even if you draft a guy and he ends up being more of a Top 15 - Top 20 QB (like you could say Goff is) that still gives you a ton of money to save and spend on the defense or on some weapons to support him. 

I really just think that this is the year if we're in position. We are the perfect team to take a QB because we have a solid offense and you can even keep Goff out there for a season (or until the bye week or whatever) if they don't look ready right away. 

Mid-round picks at QB are such a long shot. It sounds like a good idea, and you can occasionally find a Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott, but more often than not if you want a QB you need to draft them in the first round. You aren't taking guys in the 3rd or 4th and counting on them to start one day. 

My only issue with that is you need to have guys available to pay and the FA class next year doesn't look that great to me. So we could have a bunch of cap space but we're either overpaying someone or holding onto it. 

If we were to draft a defensive player over a QB this upcoming year, we'd be looking at 

• 2027 - Hutch on 5th year option, rookie defender (year 4); rookie QB year 3
• 2028 - Hutch on new contract; rookie defender (5th year option); rookie qb year 4
• 2029 - Hutch on year 2 of new contract; rookie defender - new contract; rookie QB 5th year option
• 2030 - Hutch on year 3 of new contract; rookie defender on year 2; rookie QB on new contract

Having those other two guys on rookie deals would allow us to front load Hutch's new deal and ensuring we have the space to accommodate for a guy like Will Anderson and a rookie QB when their deals come up. 

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, Lions017 said:

I think that both guys are likely to be graded higher than Fields. 

The thing is that a rookie QB just has to be pretty decent - like what we have with Goff right now - to be super valuable. Is Trevor Lawrence playing significantly better than Jared Goff right now? No. But Lawrence has a cap hit of $8.4M and Goff's is $31.2M. Even if you draft a guy and he ends up being more of a Top 15 - Top 20 QB (like you could say Goff is) that still gives you a ton of money to save and spend on the defense or on some weapons to support him. 

I really just think that this is the year if we're in position. We are the perfect team to take a QB because we have a solid offense and you can even keep Goff out there for a season (or until the bye week or whatever) if they don't look ready right away. 

Mid-round picks at QB are such a long shot. It sounds like a good idea, and you can occasionally find a Russell Wilson or Dak Prescott, but more often than not if you want a QB you need to draft them in the first round. You aren't taking guys in the 3rd or 4th and counting on them to start one day. 

I agree with this. I think Stroud and Young would have graded out just below Lawrence in that draft but ahead of the others.  I have seen some comps of Stroud to Burrows in how he stands in the pocket, doesn't get phased by pressure and delivers accurate balls.  Even on short routes the ball is always were the receiver can catch and run.  

Being in a position to draft a QB is not a given in any year.  It definitely can make or break a team but I feel like we have enough pieces on both sides, along with picks in the first two rounds to add a QB and greatly improve our D.  

[Lions017]

1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

My only issue with that is you need to have guys available to pay and the FA class next year doesn't look that great to me. So we could have a bunch of cap space but we're either overpaying someone or holding onto it. 

If we were to draft a defensive player over a QB this upcoming year, we'd be looking at 

• 2027 - Hutch on 5th year option, rookie defender (year 4); rookie QB year 3
• 2028 - Hutch on new contract; rookie defender (5th year option); rookie qb year 4
• 2029 - Hutch on year 2 of new contract; rookie defender - new contract; rookie QB 5th year option
• 2030 - Hutch on year 3 of new contract; rookie defender on year 2; rookie QB on new contract

Having those other two guys on rookie deals would allow us to front load Hutch's new deal and ensuring we have the space to accommodate for a guy like Will Anderson and a rookie QB when their deals come up. 

You just can't guarantee that it works out that way, though. Maybe next year's class doesn't end up looking as good, or you don't end up in position to draft a guy that you like, or Hutchinson blows out his knee...you never know. 

If there's a franchise QB that you like this year then I don't see how you can possibly not take them. You only take someone else if you aren't sold on one. 

[LionArkie]

If we are top 3, I'm fine with Stroud, Young, or Levis (I think he's going to move up into the conversation). I think this is the year to grab the qb if you're in top 3. Then all defense from there. Earlier in the year I was more giving Goff some credit and willing to pass on qb, but I think we've seen what Goff is. He's not it. I don't even think he could be an effective game manager. He chokes at the absolute worst time. He has no clutch in his game.

[Karnage84]

10 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

If we are top 3, I'm fine with Stroud, Young, or Levis (I think he's going to move up into the conversation). I think this is the year to grab the qb if you're in top 3. Then all defense from there. Earlier in the year I was more giving Goff some credit and willing to pass on qb, but I think we've seen what Goff is. He's not it. I don't even think he could be an effective game manager. He chokes at the absolute worst time. He has no clutch in his game.

I don't want Levis at all. I just don't like the idea of an older prospect that's breaking out late. I think it reduces the ceiling and you're ultimately going to wind up with a near finished product. I want that upside of a guy who can be a future Mahomes/Herbert for a long time to come. I don't really want a guy to be 30 years old by the time he's at the end of his rookie contract. 

I do have questions for Young on his size. Not sure he'll be able to stay healthy at the NFL level, which is really as important as overall talent level. You can be the best player on the field but it doesn't matter if you can never stay on the field and play. 

[Sllim Pickens]

45 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I don't want Levis at all. I just don't like the idea of an older prospect that's breaking out late. I think it reduces the ceiling and you're ultimately going to wind up with a near finished product. I want that upside of a guy who can be a future Mahomes/Herbert for a long time to come. I don't really want a guy to be 30 years old by the time he's at the end of his rookie contract. 

I do have questions for Young on his size. Not sure he'll be able to stay healthy at the NFL level, which is really as important as overall talent level. You can be the best player on the field but it doesn't matter if you can never stay on the field and play. 

I agree with Levis, I am not sold on him being a top 5 pick although I disagree with your take on his age and breaking out.  He was a solid prospect last year and seems to be improving on that this year but I just dont love the numbers.  He will be 23 when drafted, 28 when his contract ends.  Thats not old but its old enough that I do have some concerns with upside.  He didn't get a chance to play much until later and after transferring but he has been on NFL radar since he started at UK last year. I would not take him top 5, but if he feel to our 2nd, I would consider it.  

Young has the tools to do well but I agree the size is an issue IMO.  I know there was a period people didnt care because of Russ and Brees but Baker and Kyler did not hold it down for the short QBs IMO.  His injuries are an issue and his size for seeing over the big bodies of the NFL at a faster pace makes me nervous.  I wouldn't hate it because all of his tools are elite, but I would have some concern.  

As I said, Stroud is my top QB, for many reasons, and is the only one I would take over Will Anderson at this point.  He has the upside, the age, and the abilities to be a star in the league IMO.