3rivers Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 5 minutes ago, warfelg said: I think he decides within a day or two of FA opening. if he goes elsewhere, would you consider getting : 1. 2 CB's in the draft 2. 1 CB in the draft 3. 1Cb in draft, 1 CB UFA 4. 1 CB UFA I have thought that the goal this year was trenches but still hoped for another CB as well as keeping Sutton. 2 CB's would be the pick for me, not sure how though because of the cap. If Clark Phillips is there at 32 that could take care of the slot. 17 would take care of the outside CB1. UFA for LT or 49. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 7 minutes ago, AFF said: Cut Trubisky/WJIII/Witherspoon…roughly $25 mill in cap room…probably restructure Fitzpatrick(I’ve seen $8 mill they can clear but I honestly don’t know). Probably need ~$5-6mi for year 1 cap hits of rookies…another $5-7 mill for in season stuff like the Steelers like to keep around. Ill go with the $33 mill In room with the numbers I’ve used above. For sale of argument, let’s say their 1st 4 picks are some combo of LG/CB/ILB/NT. You still have holes at SS…S depth…CB….ILb depth…DE depth…EDGE depth…OT depth…2nd TE…OT depth…backup(s) QB…plus our love for ST only guys like Boykin. They don’t have the room to front load deals unless they do an “extension” with Heyward adding on void year and and another restructure with Watt. Tge Steelers like low year 1 cap hits typically and we saw that in the Trubisky/Daniels/Chuks/Wallace/Witherspoon deals last offseason. They don’t need to front load everything. I just wouldn’t go all about signing lots of guys with pushing the money to year two when next years class is good unless you give an out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rivers Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 do you get LT in UFA or CB/Sutton ? Probably can't afford both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward4HOF Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 15 hours ago, warfelg said: Transition tag is $15mil which is average of top 10 at the position. I like Cam but I’m not committing that to him. Look at his stats minus TJ vs with. Wildly different player. He also spent a lot of time matched up against 2nd and 3rd WRs. When he was on the best of other teams he was getting beat. What CB wouldn't look different? At the end of the day, however, Cameron Sutton's ranks amongst all other NFL CBs, in most of the most critical/important stats for a CB, are quite informative, and if you have to know that his agent will spouting these during negotitations... 6th in PDs T-28th in INTs 7th in Opposing QB Comp % 21st in Passer Rating 21st in Rcving Yds per times Targeted And regarding being matched up on team's #2/#3 WRs?? Well, yeah, he has great instincts in slot coverage, but he was matched up on AJ Brown against Philly, and even had a PD against him, as well as, deep against Que Watkins, a 4.35 40 guy...so yeah, he can hold his ground against all types of WRs. I personally don't see that as a knock on him. Sutton's most frustrating issue this season, were his INT drops; he could have legitmately had at least 6 this season... All CBs get burned from time to time, and no, I don't see him as being a top 10 CB in the NFL, but he's easily top 20. So why top 10-12 money?? Because a lot of the really good ones, are still on their Rookie contracts, and once they get paid, Sutton will drop to top 20-25 money, which to me, seems fair. But honestly, if he stays with us, I doubt he gets more than $12M AAV. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 You keep spouting off those stats like they matter, something Chris Carter of Locked On does too, but it lacks serious context. The corners were highly dependent on the pass rush being good and safety play allowing them to be aggressive. On film Sutton was nice, but if someone wants to pay him top 10 CB money you should let him. The reason why I don’t want to pay Sutton that is he isn’t the “island” guy. He’s not the guy you are going to leave out on that spot with WR1 and feel comfortable that guy isn’t an option. And those are the guys who get that top 10-12 money IMO. You want to truth? Know who was only a slot to three behind Sutton in all of that? Levi Wallace. Want to know who was top 50 in most of those? Author Maulet. Want to know who had similar stats last year? Ahkello Witherspoon. This isn’t to say this guys are as good as Sutton, rather other guys have produced in this defense the last two year at CB. And if you do resign Sutton I rather see a $15mil, $9mil, $9mil with an out after year 1. Because I believe if you do that with Sutton CB is still a high on the list need either way, and you want that out if the CB you draft is a stud. Wallace will still give CB2 play and would be cheaper than Sutton; and at the same time 2024 is a better FA class and likely one of the last chances to swing big with a rookie contract QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Sutton is a great fit for the current style the Steelers play. He should not get top 10 money but I can see $8-10M Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, jebrick said: Sutton is a great fit for the current style the Steelers play. He should not get top 10 money but I can see $8-10M I have no issue with this. I push back to the top 10 money standpoint. If someone else wants to give him that, then they can sign him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward4HOF Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, warfelg said: You keep spouting off those stats like they matter, something Chris Carter of Locked On does too, but it lacks serious context. The corners were highly dependent on the pass rush being good and safety play allowing them to be aggressive. On film Sutton was nice, but if someone wants to pay him top 10 CB money you should let him. The reason why I don’t want to pay Sutton that is he isn’t the “island” guy. He’s not the guy you are going to leave out on that spot with WR1 and feel comfortable that guy isn’t an option. And those are the guys who get that top 10-12 money IMO. You want to truth? Know who was only a slot to three behind Sutton in all of that? Levi Wallace. Want to know who was top 50 in most of those? Author Maulet. Want to know who had similar stats last year? Ahkello Witherspoon. This isn’t to say this guys are as good as Sutton, rather other guys have produced in this defense the last two year at CB. And if you do resign Sutton I rather see a $15mil, $9mil, $9mil with an out after year 1. Because I believe if you do that with Sutton CB is still a high on the list need either way, and you want that out if the CB you draft is a stud. Wallace will still give CB2 play and would be cheaper than Sutton; and at the same time 2024 is a better FA class and likely one of the last chances to swing big with a rookie contract QB. Maulet - 212th in Passer rating / 89th in Comp % Witherspoon - 261st in Passer Rating / 222nd in Comp % But check this out... Pierre, on similar number of targets to those 2 above, with 31 Tgts, was 6th in Passer Rating, and 2nd in Comp%...we need to play Pierre this season and see if those numbers were just flukes, or if he's able to reproduce at those levels... But point is, they were all on less than 1/2 the targets...in the 30s, where Suttoin had 73, and Wallace had 77 So no, those are not comparable at all to Sutton... Plus, I'm not sure why we are even arguing this point...I'm saying, I'd go as high $39M over 3 years ($13M AAV), and your willing to go to $33M over 3 Years ($11M AAV), but I also stated I don't think he'll get more than $12M AAV...that's $1M more than you are okay with, right?? I'd do more of a $14M / $10.5M / $10.5M, with an out in year one... And I'm totally with you, regarding a higher Year 1, with an out after Yr 1, if he regresses... And lastly, you and I typically agree on like 90% of the stuff discussed here; and again, I don't think we are that far off on what we'd be good with. I do think, some team is going to offer him Top 10-12 money, which again, is $13.5M, and I'd be okay with matching that, BUT, again, with an out after Yr 1. The last time, we had a homegrown CB as talented as Sutton, we let him walk for just over $5M AAV...and that was dumb. I don;t want to lose another homegrown guy, who's healthy, knows the system, and is versatile. Every CB get;s beat from time to time, but he proved to be better than most last season, so yeah, I'm willing to pay a little higher than you would. Sadly, the Steelers are likely not to pay him even has high as you are suggesting... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, warfelg said: I have no issue with this. I push back to the top 10 money standpoint. If someone else wants to give him that, then they can sign him. Thing is, even if we paid him as say, the 9th best CB in the league...within 2 years he will probably be in the 18-25 range with all the new money pouring in. I dont want to overpay either, but we are taking a huge risk if we let him walk. There is no guarantee we can get one of the other guys mentioned in this thread. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward4HOF Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, 43M said: Thing is, even if we paid him as say, the 9th best CB in the league...within 2 years he will probably be in the 18-25 range with all the new money pouring in. I dont want to overpay either, but we are taking a huge risk if we let him walk. There is no guarantee we can get one of the other guys mentioned in this thread. Thats what I am saying!! And Warfelg, man, you are saying you won't pay him top 10-12, but your example would be top 17...are you okay with that? As I mentioned, I don't think we are as far off as you think we are... Edited February 23, 2023 by Ward4HOF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward4HOF Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, jebrick said: Sutton is a great fit for the current style the Steelers play. He should not get top 10 money but I can see $8-10M I don;t see him signing for less than Warfelg's example...$11M AAV, with an out in year one...and honestly, the most important piece is the guaranteed money. I wouldn't guarantee more than 50-60%...or roughly $18M...tops. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, 43M said: Thing is, even if we paid him as say, the 9th best CB in the league...within 2 years he will probably be in the 18-25 range with all the new money pouring in. I dont want to overpay either, but we are taking a huge risk if we let him walk. There is no guarantee we can get one of the other guys mentioned in this thread. TBH I hate this logic. Because there’s no guarantee it’s going to drop that low. I just think his value and importance to this defense is being overplayed right now to the point we’re talking ourselves into an overpay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Ward4HOF said: The last time, we had a homegrown CB as talented as Sutton, we let him walk for just over $5M AAV...and that was dumb. Are you talking about Keenan Lewis? We were losing him no matter what. I think trying to pay people just because they were homegrown is a big mistake and leads to bad contracts. Like I said, I would love to keep Sutton but I have a line, and it’s the line of CB2 pay. FWIW on AAV 9th is $16.5mil. 18th is $11mil. Edited February 23, 2023 by warfelg 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
43M Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, warfelg said: TBH I hate this logic. Because there’s no guarantee it’s going to drop that low. I just think his value and importance to this defense is being overplayed right now to the point we’re talking ourselves into an overpay. We backed ourselves into a corner. We dont have much talent at CB, and you always pay more on the open market. If you dont want to pay him, fine but a) youre very possibly paying not much less for a downgrade in free agency or youre paying a similar amount for a lateral move and b) if we paid him as an 8 to 10 CB, there is absolutely no doubt he wouldnt be top 15 by 2025, and maybe not even top 20. Im not looking to overpay, but you also have to be realistic about the situation. Im not going to be extremely upset if he walks, but I acknowledge there is a good chance we downgrade at CB in 23, even if we draft CB early. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ward4HOF Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, warfelg said: Are you talking about Keenan Lewis? We were losing him no matter what. Yeah...I know he wanted out, but had we paid him...maybe $8M per for 2 years, he might have stayed a little longer, for a bigger pay out later, at a destination of his choice...but regardless, the point being, we have a very low rate of homegrown CBs within the last 20 years or so, so all this talk about drafting 1 or 2 in days 1 and 2, to me, is pointless, and reckless. I don't know what is wrong with out DB scouting, but unless it's been 'fixed', I have no desire to grab a CB before pick 49...preferably, the 3rd, however, and then, just keep Sutton, Wallace, and Pierre, and bring in another decent FA. And yeah, Wallace played well above his contract value last year of $2M...I'd have been happy paying him the $6M we will this year, unless they decide to reach a longer contract agreement. I'd be happy to pay him $6M AAV for the next 3 years...he's not great, but he's solid enough, for sure... And fine, I'll come down to you money...Top 17 AAV with an out in Yr 1. Let's see if that $15M/$9M/$9M, full 1st year guarantee, and maybe an add'l $1M per for years 2 and 3, gets it done... Would you be okay with that?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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