Cwood is a nerd and so are all the Packer Favorite Prospects: 2023 Draft Discussion Thread

[beekay414]

1 minute ago, incognito_man said:

JSN is also now a bigger injury risk. Bulk stats matter.

[squire12]

8 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Reducing a decision of "is he worth the pick" to receiving stats is elementary.

Actually determining if he was worth it involves a lot more variables.

so what are some of the variables that we should be considering to make a judgement on whether JSN would be worth pick 15?

[incognito_man]

3 minutes ago, squire12 said:

so what are some of the variables that we should be considering to make a judgement on whether JSN would be worth pick 15?

If there are guys who produced relatively better that we could have had instead.

[squire12]

3 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

If there are guys who produced relatively better that we could have had instead.

feels like a hindsight way of assigning the value.  If only the GM's could get that information from the future before making the pick in the present

[incognito_man]

1 minute ago, squire12 said:

feels like a hindsight way of assigning the value.  If only the GM's could get that information from the future before making the pick in the present

It's almost like you need hindsight to GRADE THE PICK like you asked about in the first place. Why are you talking in circles?

[squire12]

8 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

It's almost like you need hindsight to GRADE THE PICK like you asked about in the first place. Why are you talking in circles?

I am not assigning value to the pick based on other players that could have been picked.  I am looking at a specific player and what would the expectation be for that player to warrant an end point judgement that the pick was worth it at that draft slot.  

For me, if GB picks JSN, that pick becomes worth it if he hits certain levels of production, rec/yards/TD in statistical terms. + harder to measure value of impact on offense by shifting coverage, opening things up for RB/TE/other WR, etc.  

[incognito_man]

6 minutes ago, squire12 said:

I am not assigning value to the pick based on other players that could have been picked.  I am looking at a specific player and what would the expectation be for that player to warrant an end point judgement that the pick was worth it at that draft slot.  

For me, if GB picks JSN, that pick becomes worth it if he hits certain levels of production, rec/yards/TD in statistical terms. + harder to measure value of impact on offense by shifting coverage, opening things up for RB/TE/other WR, etc.  

I'll remind you how this started:.

You: "what stats make him worth the pick"

Me: "there's more to it than just stats"

You asked what "hindsight" (i.e. actual accumulated statistics) can we use to determine if he was a good pick or not. 

You're still thinking that just stats is all you need. But you're missing the entire opportunity cost part of the valuation. That's...an enormous part of it You can't ignore it and feel legitimately good about your determination...You need more than 2-4 data points to decide if someone was "worth it" or if there's a way you need to tweak your evaluation because it turns out, he wasn't worth it. 

Edited April 22, 2023 by incognito_man

[squire12]

6 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I'll remind you how this started:.

You: "what stats make him worth the pick"

Me: "there's more to it than just stats"

You asked what "hindsight" (i.e. actual accumulated statistics) can we use to determine if he was a good pick or not. 

You're still thinking that just stats is all you need. But you're missing the entire opportunity cost part of the valuation. That's...an enormous part of it You can't ignore it and feel legitimately good about your determination...You need more than 2-4 data points to decide if someone was "worth it" or if there's a way you need to tweak your evaluation because it turns out, he wasn't worth it. 

maybe you need to recall where it actually started.............

2 hours ago, incognito_man said:

He's just flat out not worth that pick IMO

 

[incognito_man]

Just now, squire12 said:

maybe you need to recall where it actually started.............

 

Ok? And then after that, the important part that set in motion the discussion started.

[squire12]

3 hours ago, incognito_man said:

He's just flat out not worth that pick IMO

strong definitive statement made

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

Hard to say without knowing the opportunity cost of the other premiums that were available and how slot WRs acquired much later also perform.

I find it really unlikely JSN will outperform a number of other later selected WRs to justify that pick. 

leads to inability to state why JSN would "flat out not be worth that pick"

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

Yeah no schit you can ha. Trying to reduce "was this a good pick" into a simple stat question is elementary. That's the point. There's a lot of variables involved and a slot WR is not worth that pick with what's sure to be better value players available. 

too many variables to be able to say if a pick would be worth it.....yet the definitive statement was clearly made

1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

Reducing a decision of "is he worth the pick" to receiving stats is elementary.

Actually determining if he was worth it involves a lot more variables.

again with variables

47 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

If there are guys who produced relatively better that we could have had instead.

but now back to stats

**********

Just trying to find out why the point blank statement that JSN would not be worth the pick.  From what I have seen, it seems like that would be because there very well could be players taken later in the draft that could outproduce JSN.  

 

[Green19]

12 minutes ago, squire12 said:

maybe you need to recall where it actually started.............

 

I think the better way to look at it too is let’s say every players hits their highest high. Is a slot WR… even a hall of fame one, worth the 15 overall more than say a hall of fame OT or EDGE.

I think incognito is driving value of the pick isn’t just if the player selected “collects stats”.

It’s what value does the player bring to the team, stats, positional value, etc etc. Does that value match up with the selection historically and within their draft class etc.

It’s why GB drafts the way that they do. Positions are inherently more “valuable” and worthy of 1st round selection. Look at the Cowboys… did they get good value from Zeke, and I’ll even limit it to his rookie contract. He more valuable than Ramesy taken a pick later? Or Derrick Henry taken a round later?

If I’m reading correctly incognito isn’t looking for numbers because he inherently has an issue using the 15 overall selection any year on any slot WR. 

[ThatJerkDave]

1 minute ago, Green19 said:

I think the better way to look at it too is let’s say every players hits their highest high. Is a slot WR… even a hall of fame one, worth the 15 overall more than say a hall of fame OT or EDGE.

I think incognito is driving value of the pick isn’t just if the player selected “collects stats”.

It’s what value does the player bring to the team, stats, positional value, etc etc. Does that value match up with the selection historically and within their draft class etc.

It’s why GB drafts the way that they do. Positions are inherently more “valuable” and worthy of 1st round selection. Look at the Cowboys… did they get good value from Zeke, and I’ll even limit it to his rookie contract. He more valuable than Ramesy taken a pick later? Or Derrick Henry taken a round later?

If I’m reading correctly incognito isn’t looking for numbers because he inherently has an issue using the 15 overall selection any year on any slot WR. 

He also doesn't like JSN.  Just for a little back ground to the argument.  

[squire12]

7 minutes ago, Green19 said:

I think the better way to look at it too is let’s say every players hits their highest high. Is a slot WR… even a hall of fame one, worth the 15 overall more than say a hall of fame OT or EDGE.

sure positional value means you would want the HOF OT or EDGE over the WR.  but that is a given in any draft that you would want to the take the HOF player at just about any position over a player that is not HOF.  that gets back to the hindsight of using the end of the career to assess if any player was better value over another.  

I am looking at this just in the process of IF JSN were to be picked at 15, what would be needed for him (regardless of other players picked after) to be viewed as a worthy/worthwhile pick

7 minutes ago, Green19 said:

I think incognito is driving value of the pick isn’t just if the player selected “collects stats”.

It’s what value does the player bring to the team, stats, positional value, etc etc. Does that value match up with the selection historically and within their draft class etc.

I don't disagree with the other non statistical components being factors in the end value.   But those are also things that we as fans can't really measure or accurately assess....things like team chemistry, locker room presence, impact on other teammates, how defenses game plan for/against JSN, etc, etc.  

7 minutes ago, Green19 said:

It’s why GB drafts the way that they do. Positions are inherently more “valuable” and worthy of 1st round selection. Look at the Cowboys… did they get good value from Zeke, and I’ll even limit it to his rookie contract. He more valuable than Ramesy taken a pick later? Or Derrick Henry taken a round later?

positions are more valuable to a point.  GB will also not take a 7th OT just because the positional value of an OT outweighs another position.  

7 minutes ago, Green19 said:

If I’m reading correctly incognito isn’t looking for numbers because he inherently has an issue using the 15 overall selection any year on any slot WR. 

I am not sure JSN is just a slot WR

[Green19]

3 minutes ago, squire12 said:

  

I am not sure JSN is just a slot WR

And I think that is the bottom line of this… evaluation. Incognito doesn’t like JSN, and sees him just as a slot. And he likely thinks there are better players to be had.

And I don’t think there is any stat line that will convince him… sans something historically and unlikely.

I’m of the mindset… I want good players. If JSN is good, happy to have him. My only position on WRs in the 1st is…. do they not feel good about Watson and Doubs? Or does this offense need 3 good to great WRs? Because Watson is a legit 1 and LaFleur keeps invoking Adams with Doubs. So if that’s the case I would say we can wait until the 2nd.

[incognito_man]

27 minutes ago, Green19 said:

I think the better way to look at it too is let’s say every players hits their highest high. Is a slot WR… even a hall of fame one, worth the 15 overall more than say a hall of fame OT or EDGE.

I think incognito is driving value of the pick isn’t just if the player selected “collects stats”.

It’s what value does the player bring to the team, stats, positional value, etc etc. Does that value match up with the selection historically and within their draft class etc.

It’s why GB drafts the way that they do. Positions are inherently more “valuable” and worthy of 1st round selection. Look at the Cowboys… did they get good value from Zeke, and I’ll even limit it to his rookie contract. He more valuable than Ramesy taken a pick later? Or Derrick Henry taken a round later?

If I’m reading correctly incognito isn’t looking for numbers because he inherently has an issue using the 15 overall selection any year on any slot WR. 

This is definitely a big part of the reason why I don't think he'll be worth the pick. Even if he does hit, however you want to quantify that, you don't know if "he was worth it" unless you compare him to his draft class. If the guy isn't the 15th most valuable player (or better) of his draft class, he then literally wasn't worth it. 

So stats in a vacuum are meaningless. How do the receiving stats compare to an offensive tackles taken immediately after him?

If one chooses a single, non-composite number, the only possible proxy of value is career earnings.

So if we took JSN at 15, he'd have been "worth it" if he ends up in the top 15 career earners in the 2023 class. Otherwise he wouldn't be.