NYRaider Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, CWood21 said: Unfortunately, I think the Raiders kill their leverage when they made it clear they'll cut him. Because right now any team acquiring Carr is at a minimum getting a 1 year, $46M deal if they were to release him after the 2023 season with only only the $7.5M in dead cap in 2024. That's reasonable. Carr holds leverage with that NTC and could be petty and block every trade forcing Las Vegas to eat his cap hit, but Carr has motivation to go elsewhere. I disagree. Teams can play chicken but as you said the QB market isn't great this offseason and if you're interested but don't trade for him you run the risk of missing out at QB in free agency. How are they getting him at 1 yr/$46M? He has $33M GTD in 2023 and $7M GTD in 2024. He could be petty but how does sacrificing $10-15M next season benefit him? He is already working with the team to identify potential trade partners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Guy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, NYRaider said: We literally can't trade him until the new league year begins. But if we agree to a trade the other team would be agreeing to take on his contract, including the $40M GTD. The planet where they'd run the risk of striking out at QB in free agency which could result in GM/HC losing their job. So, to recap, a GM would pay Carr his contract in a trade and give up assets but would not acquire him via free agency for the same money and give up no assets! Got it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Old Guy said: So, to recap, a GM would pay Carr his contract in a trade and give up assets but would not acquire him via free agency for the same money and give up no assets! Got it! Trading for Carr guarantees that you acquire him. If he hits free agency he'll have the freedom to sign where ever he wants. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, NYRaider said: I disagree. Teams can play chicken but as you said the QB market isn't great this offseason and if you're interested but don't trade for him you run the risk of missing out at QB in free agency. How are they getting him at 1 yr/$46M? He has $33M GTD in 2023 and $7M GTD in 2024. He could be petty but how does sacrificing $10-15M next season benefit him? He is already working with the team to identify potential trade partners. Sorry, I think I included his pro-rated signing bonus that hits Las Vegas' cap. Even a 1 year, $40.5M is still a reasonable cap hit without any real substantial negative ramifications. But if you're looking down the QB tiers in FA/trade, Carr is probably closer to the bottom than he is the top. I still think he'll fetch something decent, but that's because we're in a QB-driven league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak1 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 34 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Obviously Rodgers is more proven than Geno. But Geno was arguably better than Rodgers this season, knows the system, is well liked in the locker room, etc. Aaron Rodgers currently has the biggest contract in the league, no chance that Geno sniffs that. There is no argument to be had. He was better than Rodgers this season. When you factor in contract, age, and draft capital, keeping Geno is a no brainer, imo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, CWood21 said: Sorry, I think I included his pro-rated signing bonus that hits Las Vegas' cap. Even a 1 year, $40.5M is still a reasonable cap hit without any real substantial negative ramifications. But if you're looking down the QB tiers in FA/trade, Carr is probably closer to the bottom than he is the top. I still think he'll fetch something decent, but that's because we're in a QB-driven league. Outside of Brady/Rodgers who would be clearly better than Carr in FA/Trade? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Outside of Brady/Rodgers who would be clearly better than Carr in FA/Trade? Geno Smith (if he's not franchise tagged) and possibly Jimmy G could/would likely be cheaper alternatives to Derek Carr. It's not always about getting the best QB, sometimes it's about getting the best value for a QB. Is Derek Carr a big enough upgrade to justify sending picks (and likely a new long-term deal) instead of signing Jimmy G to something like a 3 year, $85M deal? I think there's enough teams out there that would probably prefer the latter as opposed to the former. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sandy Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Trading for Carr guarantees that you acquire him. If he hits free agency he'll have the freedom to sign where ever he wants. If he hits free agency he's getting a stupid big contract too. Something that will cripple a team like Washington financially for a long time. I think those teams know that and would happily trade quality assets for him at his current price point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Geno Smith (if he's not franchise tagged) and possibly Jimmy G could/would likely be cheaper alternatives to Derek Carr. It's not always about getting the best QB, sometimes it's about getting the best value for a QB. Is Derek Carr a big enough upgrade to justify sending picks (and likely a new long-term deal) instead of signing Jimmy G to something like a 3 year, $85M deal? I think there's enough teams out there that would probably prefer the latter as opposed to the former. Geno isn't going to hit the market, I agree on Jimmy G though. Not sure why he'd need a new long term deal, he's under contract for three more seasons. If anything I think he'd rework his deal to be more team friendly. The Colts reportedly offered us two first round picks for him last year but we declined. And while Jimmy G might be a slightly worse/cheaper option, he also comes with risks. For one he hasn't ever really been able to stay healthy. And on top of that with Carr a team has the chance to control their own destiny and acquire a QB. With Jimmy they'd be running the risk he signs elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, Sandy said: If he hits free agency he's getting a stupid big contract too. Something that will cripple a team like Washington financially for a long time. I think those teams know that and would happily trade quality assets for him at his current price point. The biggest FA deal in NFL history was Kirk Cousins at $28M APY. I can't imagine that he'll beat that or that he's interested in getting out of his current deal, which is slated to be the 7th richest deal in the league over the next three seasons. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, NYRaider said: The biggest FA deal in NFL history was Kirk Cousins at $28M APY. I can't imagine that he'll beat that or that he's interested in getting out of his current deal, which is slated to be the 7th richest deal in the league over the next three seasons. That contract was signed 5 years ago, and was a fully GTD deal. If he's willing to take a non-fully GTD deal, he'd absolutely blow by that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, CWood21 said: That contract was signed 5 years ago, and was a fully GTD deal. If he's willing to take a non-fully GTD deal, he'd absolutely blow by that. It's interesting that he's at the bottom in terms of QB's available this offseason, Jimmy G will be significantly cheaper, but yet he'd still get a mega deal that's on par with his current one? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Geno isn't going to hit the market, I agree on Jimmy G though. Not sure why he'd need a new long term deal, he's under contract for three more seasons. If anything I think he'd rework his deal to be more team friendly. The Colts reportedly offered us two first round picks for him last year but we declined. And while Jimmy G might be a slightly worse/cheaper option, he also comes with risks. For one he hasn't ever really been able to stay healthy. And on top of that with Carr a team has the chance to control their own destiny and acquire a QB. With Jimmy they'd be running the risk he signs elsewhere. I would agree it's unlikely that Geno hits the market, but if he does he's probably near the top of the list since he's not going to get a mega-contract. And probably more importantly, he wouldn't need picks to acquire. And it's not that he needs a deal, but usually when players have NTC they usually get something out of waiving their NTC. Either more years, more money, or more guarantees added to the deal. As long as he believes that Las Vegas isn't willing to hold onto him through the deadline, Carr actually has leverage. But again, it isn't just Carr vs. Jimmy G. It's Carr vs. Jimmy G and the draft picks you'd need to include to get Derek Carr. Let's assume that Carr fetches what Carson Wentz did (the IND trade, not the WAS trade). Are you going to tell me that you can definitively say that Derek Carr is better than Jimmy G, a 3rd round pick this year, and a FRP next year? Because I'm not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, NYRaider said: It's interesting that he's at the bottom in terms of QB's available this offseason, Jimmy G will be significantly cheaper, but yet he'd still get a mega deal that's on par with his current one? The problem is there's usually more QB-needy teams than there is QBs. Let's assume that Geno Smith gets franchised and/or signed to a long-term deal. Looking down the list, you've got Houston, Indianapolis, Las Vegas, Carolina, New Orleans, NY Jets, Washington, and Tampa Bay as definitively in the QB market. And then you get into teams who might get into the QB market including Atlanta, Tennessee, New England, Detroit, Seattle, and Baltimore if something happens. I think we can safely cross of Houston since they're almost certainly going QB at 2. Let's assume all the QBs that are available become available (sans Geno Smith), you've got Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Jimmy G, Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson. That's 10 QBs, and we've got 8 teams definitively in the QB market and 14 teams that could be in the market if certain things transpire. Someone's gonna be left without a QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 "Next, I’ll address the potential inevitability that, like all Rodgers offseason storylines, they will vanish into the ether in a few weeks and we’ll all get back to guessing when he’ll arrive at training camp and debating whether or not that specific date is a good idea. Like that time he was possibly going to get traded to the 49ers. Or leave to focus on Jeopardy! Or play guitar in Bon Iver. Or bat fourth for the White Sox. Rodgers is a brand that invites speculation and intrigue, whether self perpetuated or through some media byproduct. There is a good chance we’re wasting as much time talking about this as we did crashing computers on New Year’s Eve, 1999" "He represents the highest ceiling of this offseason quarterback class. Brady will be 46 next year. Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota all seem to represent various plot points on a graph of conservative options that will yield a noticeable, but not franchise-altering improvement. Sure, one may contribute an extra win or two, but most of these players are an amalgam of the middle to upper-middle tier of the position. The Jets shouldn’t be making a move to edge into the playoffs as a No. 7 seed. They should be making a move that could result in winning the AFC East" https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/01/24/aaron-rodgers-trade-packers-jets-offseason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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