I think it's time to start including Joe Burrow as a Top 3 NFL QB.

[Soggust]

17 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Honestly, I can't really explain it. He's not staring receivers down, per se. Defenses might just be keying on it because of our proclivity to use the quick passing game to negate a not-so-stellar OL.

This is a completely subjective take with no hard evidence to back it up, but ANECDOTALLY -

I think there has been a huge focus over the last decade of DL play on batting balls at the line. We see it SO much nowadays comparatively to like even a decade ago. You can just tell that DL are so much more instinctually trained to throw their hands up and jump when they are beaten by a pass block.

I'm going to say this, and it's going to sound like a Burrow criticism, but it's really not - I think a lot of it IS on the QB, actually. Being able to get the ball past the wall of defenders at the line of scrimmage is part of the process. Again, this is an issue for ALL QBS in my mind, not just Burrow/Herbert. 

Mahomes actually had a period where he was struggling with this a few years ago, too. He was getting a lot of balls tipped/batted and led to a lot of wonky picks. This is why he has worked so much on odd angle throws, etc. Now, let me be clear - 75%+ of it is probably still more fluff than substance, but those awkward arm angle throws do help in getting less knocked down. 

I think we will see Burrow/Herbert etc adapt more, but I do think it's a DL philosophy that has really gotten drilled into players heads over the last couple decades.

[Soggust]

3 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Meh. Put Burrow in Allen's spot, and he's not replicating his success. Allen has way worse weapons and a worse O line to work with, and is still in the conversation for MVP:

 

 

I think my post history will confirm that I don't really subscribe to the idea of subjectively giving people credit because of the teams around them. Because if we go down this rabbit hole, we have to compare defenses and opportunities, plus factor in injuries (Chase) etc and we can go on for hours creating variables to justify the opinion. At the end of the day, they have pretty close stats so it's certainly not a blowout and it's even close enough I have no problem with someone saying Allen>Burrow in 2022. I think it's just preference tbh at this point between the two.

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

33 minutes ago, WizeGuy said:

Meh. Put Burrow in Allen's spot, and he's not replicating his success. Allen has way worse weapons and a worse O line to work with, and is still in the conversation for MVP:

 

 

Where are these grades from? Because Tyler Linderbaum has been one of the best graded Centers in the NFL and this indicates he's one of the worst in pass sets? That doesn't add up.

[SmittyBacall]

2 hours ago, Soggust said:

This is a completely subjective take with no hard evidence to back it up, but ANECDOTALLY -

I think there has been a huge focus over the last decade of DL play on batting balls at the line. We see it SO much nowadays comparatively to like even a decade ago. You can just tell that DL are so much more instinctually trained to throw their hands up and jump when they are beaten by a pass block.

I'm going to say this, and it's going to sound like a Burrow criticism, but it's really not - I think a lot of it IS on the QB, actually. Being able to get the ball past the wall of defenders at the line of scrimmage is part of the process. Again, this is an issue for ALL QBS in my mind, not just Burrow/Herbert. 

Mahomes actually had a period where he was struggling with this a few years ago, too. He was getting a lot of balls tipped/batted and led to a lot of wonky picks. This is why he has worked so much on odd angle throws, etc. Now, let me be clear - 75%+ of it is probably still more fluff than substance, but those awkward arm angle throws do help in getting less knocked down. 

I think we will see Burrow/Herbert etc adapt more, but I do think it's a DL philosophy that has really gotten drilled into players heads over the last couple decades.

Fair enough. Some of it must fall on Joe, some of it is on the OL, some of it is on the defense, and some of it is being downright unlucky. I don't think it's necessarily a coincidence he leads the league in this area. He's a traditional pocket passing QB who likes to get the ball out quick a la Brady. It makes sense for defenses to defend him this way. Batted balls are almost as good as a sack.

It's tough for me to wrap my head around how he's supposed to adapt. I think the side-arm approach only takes you so far and works in certain circumstances. The OL should be helping as well - they're coached to punish "jumpers" who go for batted balls. We'll see if this trend continues. It's really the only way he turns the ball over these days.

Edited December 22, 2022 by SmittyBacall

[Soggust]

9 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Fair enough. Some of it must fall on Joe, some of it is on the OL, some of it is on the defense, and some of it is being downright unlucky. I don't think it's necessarily a coincidence he leads the league in this area. He's a traditional pocket passing QB who likes to get the ball out quick a la Brady. It makes sense for defenses to defend him this way. Batted balls are almost as good as a sack.

It's tough for me to wrap my head around how he's supposed to adapt. I think the side-arm approach only takes you so far and works in certain circumstances. The should be helping as well - they're coached to punish "jumpers" who go for batted balls. We'll see if this trend continues. It's really the only way he turns the ball over these days.

Not sure what word im missing here, but I'm interested because I don't really know how offenses theoretically combat it.

I think side arm is a bad / weird adjustment, generally. I don't know how Mahomes gets away with it, I just stopped questioning it.

I dhave no clue how to adjust for other QBs. Maybe more pump fakes? No idea.

Rereading my original take here sounds more blame-ish than I really even intend. When I say QBs/Offenses need to adjust, I mean it more philosophically in terms of coaching/offenses as a whole needing to adjust rather than Burrow or Herbert specifically. 

[HerbertGOAT]

11 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

What I see is a guy who doesn't need to go through his reads and can throw up 50/50 balls on the sideline and have his elite WR make plays for him. He's dependent on elite talent for his production, which isn't even top-5 in terms of efficiency. 

lol what? Burrow goes through his reads very well. His elite WRs "bail him out" when they take a 4 yard slant to the house for 60 yards (and even then, that's really just Chase. And he hasn't done that very often this year).

Edited December 22, 2022 by HerbertGOAT

[SmittyBacall]

41 minutes ago, HerbertGOAT said:

His elite WRs "bail him out" when they take a 4 yard slant to the house for 60 yards (and even then, that's really just Chase. And he hasn't done that very often this year).

Honestly man, it's not even worth it. 

Also, I don't think Chase has done it even once this year. In fact, all of our explosive plays are way down from last year. Last season we were an inefficient offense that survived on the deep ball and explosive touchdowns. This year our offense is far more efficient, both running and passing, which is why (in my opinion) we're way better this year than last. Guys like Trenton Irwin, Trent Taylor, and Samje Perine are playing significant snaps due to injuries and contributing, and yet we're still better offensively.

 

 

 

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, Soggust said:

Not sure what word im missing here, but I'm interested because I don't really know how offenses theoretically combat it.

Edited to "the OL should be helping as well". Essentially, lineman are taught that when the defender they are engaging jumps and leaves their feet, you make them pay for it.

1 hour ago, Soggust said:

I think side arm is a bad / weird adjustment, generally. I don't know how Mahomes gets away with it, I just stopped questioning it.

Yeah, this is an alien thing that only few QBs can do consistently. It's not Joe's game.