I think it's time to start including Joe Burrow as a Top 3 NFL QB.

[SmittyBacall]

16 hours ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Statistically, he IS better than Joe Burrow this year, and I've proven it repeatedly. That doesn't mean he's gonna be for the next 10 years, or that his production is sustainable, but he is better than Burrow this year. Facts don't care about your feelings.

Okay, but the stats need context. Burrow came off surgery to start the year and consequently played terribly for the first few weeks (along with poor OL play before they began to gel) - see 5 turnovers week 1 vs PIT, 6 sacks against week 2 @ DAL. Completely uncharacteristic play for a QB who partly made a living off protecting the ball. Not to mention the absurd amount of tipped ball INTs he’s been victim to this year. Seemingly every tipped ball that goes up somehow lands in a defenders lap, or if you’re TJ Watt you just make an all pro play and pick it at the line. Curious, what are the numbers if you dispel the first two weeks? I’d wager to guess he’s at minimum top 5 in most significant categories. 

And to be honest, I don’t really care what the bulk numbers are, there’s only few playing at Joe’s level right now.

[Nightime]

6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

First of all, I love how the “supporting cast” argument is repeatedly thrusted upon Burrow each year, yet someone like Mahomes who plays with a HOF receiving tight end, a future HOF receiver, a HOF offensive HC, and good OLs for the majority of his career, yet you’ll never hear a peep out of them “propping him up”. Funny how that works.

Second of all, the only posters against Joe in this thread seem to be Ravens fans. Go figure.

It was brought up all the time, every year of his career. Alot less in 2022, as some talking heads even predicted he would regress now that he wasn’t throwing to Tyreek Hill. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Nightime

[AngusMcFife]

6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

First of all, I love how the “supporting cast” argument is repeatedly thrusted upon Burrow each year, yet someone like Mahomes who plays with a HOF receiving tight end, a future HOF receiver, a HOF offensive HC, and good OLs for the majority of his career, yet you’ll never hear a peep out of them “propping him up”. Funny how that works.

The difference is that Mahomes produces like a top-1/2 player year after year, while Burrow has performed like a top 5-10ish QB for 2 years despite having ridiculously good weapons. I wonder why Mahomes gets ranked higher? 

Quote

Second of all, the only posters against Joe in this thread seem to be Ravens fans. Go figure.

And the biggest Burrow defenders are Bengals fans. What a shocker. 

[SmittyBacall]

3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

The difference is that Mahomes produces like a top-1/2 player year after year, while Burrow has performed like a top 5-10ish QB for 2 years

That’s irrelevant. If you’re going to argue it for one QB, make it standard across the league.

3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

And the biggest Burrow defenders are Bengals fans. What a shocker. 

You might want to have another look, chief.

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

That’s irrelevant. If you’re going to argue it for one QB, make it standard across the league.

I do. For instance Hurts and Tua have easily outperformed Burrow this year on a statistical basis, but I wouldn't consider them better than Burrow because the Eagles are loaded at WR and OL and the Dolphins are loaded at WR and have a cutting edge offensive mind at OC. Hurts is in the conversation though due to his rushing ability. 

Burrow having a top-3 WR room (with Dolphins and Eagles) and being 10th in passing DVOA is just not impressive, sorry. 

[SmittyBacall]

2 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

Burrow having a top-3 WR room (with Dolphins and Eagles) and being 10th in passing DVOA is just not impressive, sorry. 

If your metric for basing opinions also include Garropolo, Goff, and Brissett in the top 10, maybe you need to look for different avenues when establishing an opinion.

[AngusMcFife]

12 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

If your metric for basing opinions also include Garropolo, Goff, and Brissett in the top 10, maybe you need to look for different avenues when establishing an opinion.

Or if your "top-3 QB" is unable to outproduce Garropolo, Goff, and Brissett on a per-play basis despite having loaded weapons, maybe you should rethink elevating him to top-3 status. 

[SmittyBacall]

12 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

Or if your "top-3 QB" is unable to outproduce Garropolo, Goff, and Brissett on a per-play basis despite having loaded weapons, maybe you should rethink elevating him to top-3 status. 

I would if I was that narrow minded, but I’m not. 

[AngusMcFife]

2 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I would if I was that narrow minded, but I’m not. 

Well other stats would also refute that Burrow doesn't belong in the top-3:

Passer Rating: 6th
QBR: 8th
Y/A: 7th 

Burrow is gifted a top-3 WR corps and can't even crack the top 5 in DVOA, Rating, QBR, and Y/A. What is the evidence you are presenting that he is top-3? 

[WizeGuy]

9 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

If your metric for basing opinions also include Garropolo, Goff, and Brissett in the top 10, maybe you need to look for different avenues when establishing an opinion.

Goff has been really good this year. I'm starting to think he's borderline top-10. 

[WizeGuy]

8 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

Well other stats would also refute that Burrow doesn't belong in the top-3:

Passer Rating: 6th
QBR: 8th
Y/A: 7th 

Burrow is gifted a top-3 WR corps and can't even crack the top 5 in DVOA, Rating, QBR, and Y/A. What is the evidence you are presenting that he is top-3? 

How much of his stats are influenced by his horrible line play in the beginning of the year? Allen also struggled a bit last year, and his stats weren't all top-5, I believe. There are a lot of variables that influence these things. I think Burrow is easily top-5. The 3-5 range of QBs is a crapshoot after Mahomes and Allen. 

[HerbertGOAT]

If your reaction to looking at DVOA and DYAR is to say "wow! Burrow isn't even better than Jacoby Brissett or Jimmy Garroppolo!" instead of "wow! this stat is ridiculously flawed!" you need to drop the calculator and watch some film.

[AngusMcFife]

51 minutes ago, HerbertGOAT said:

If your reaction to looking at DVOA and DYAR is to say "wow! Burrow isn't even better than Jacoby Brissett or Jimmy Garroppolo!" instead of "wow! this stat is ridiculously flawed!" you need to drop the calculator and watch some film.

If you read some of my other posts, you'll see that other stats such as passer rating, QBR, Y/A also have Burrow outside the top 5. 

[SmittyBacall]

4 hours ago, WizeGuy said:

Goff has been really good this year. I'm starting to think he's borderline top-10. 

I think Goff is what he is at this point - a very good game manager that, if supported properly, can take you as far as the Super Bowl. It's no surprise to see the success that he is having this year with a very good OL/running game in place and some nice weapons at his disposal.

[HerbertGOAT]

3 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

If you read some of my other posts, you'll see that other stats such as passer rating, QBR, Y/A also have Burrow outside the top 5. 

QBR says that Derek Carr is a top 10 QB, and so are Goff and Brissett. Andy Dalton is 7th in Passer Rating. If we're gonna go off of stats, Burrow has a better passer rating, TD-INT Ratio, AY/A and Completion% than Josh Allen, who is nearly unanimously regarded as either 2nd or the 1B to Mahomes 1A. In the watered down passing era we're currently in, the most important thing is the eye test with stats to differentiate. Does the eye-test alone tell you that Burrow is a top 3 QB? Probably not, but he has a great case for top 5. When you account for eye-test, stats and supporting cast (bad OL, yet great WR corps) there's no reason Burrow should be any lower than 5 as a QB right now.

Edited December 21, 2022 by HerbertGOAT