CWood21 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 I'll start with the arbitration cases, and they figure to be interesting to say the least. Trevor Rosenthal (Arb 3/$6.4M) Michael Wacha (Arb 2/$2.75M) Randal Grichuk (Arb 1/Minimum) Tyler Lyons (Arb 1/Minimum) The Cardinals really only have four notable players who are eligible for arbitration. The biggest name is Trevor Rosenthal who recently underwent TJS, which likely means he's out for all of the 2018 season. Given that he's going into his 3rd season of arbitration, he's almost assuredly going to get non-tendered but I wouldn't completely close the door on him. There is historical precedent that a reliever will sign a multi-year deal hoping they return to health. Greg Holland signed a 1 year, $6M deal this past offseason with the Rockies with a mutual option for 2018 at $10M (with a $1M buyout). That wouldn't be the worst bet for either the Cardinals or Trevor Rosenthal to make. Michael Wacha is the other interesting case. His injury history has been well documented, and going into his second year of arbitration he figures to get a significant pay raise over his 2017 salary of $2.75M. It should easily top $5M, and might even push closer to $7M. Prior to the trade of Mike Leake, there was discussion about potentially moving Michael Wacha into the bullpen but that seems unlikely as that creates two rotation spots that need to be filled instead of just one. Barring an injury in the final month or so, I'd imagine the Cardinals tender him arbitration. Given that Randal Grichuk and Tyler Lyons are going into their first year of arbitration and neither have prominent roles, neither figure to get significant bumps in salary. I'd imagine they both get tendered as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tttmikeb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 9:58 AM, kgarrett12486 said: BTW gentlemen, my baby girl was born on Monday! Simply amazing... Congrats, kgarrett. I've got two of my own. Nothing like being a dad. Toughest job you'll ever have, but also the most rewarding. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrubes20 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 On 9/3/2017 at 8:58 AM, kgarrett12486 said: BTW gentlemen, my baby girl was born on Monday! Simply amazing... Congrats! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tttmikeb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinals-add-reliever-nicasio-in-exchange-for-prospect-alvarez/article_165ce6b3-bb33-5ecb-a1e6-15f6ac71ea47.html Quote The Cardinals acquired relief pitcher Juan Nicasio from Philadelphia in exchange for infield prospect Eliezer Alvarez. Nicasio, who takes Alvarez's spot on the 40-man roster, could give the Cardinals a closer for September. But not beyond that. Sounds like a good addition. Too bad we couldn't land him before Sep. 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 16 hours ago, CWood21 said: The Cardinals really only have four notable players who are eligible for arbitration. The biggest name is Trevor Rosenthal who recently underwent TJS, which likely means he's out for all of the 2018 season. Given that he's going into his 3rd season of arbitration, he's almost assuredly going to get non-tendered but I wouldn't completely close the door on him. There is historical precedent that a reliever will sign a multi-year deal hoping they return to health. Greg Holland signed a 1 year, $6M deal this past offseason with the Rockies with a mutual option for 2018 at $10M (with a $1M buyout). That wouldn't be the worst bet for either the Cardinals or Trevor Rosenthal to make. We missed the boat on the Rosenthal value train, not once, not twice but 3 separate times. Im done with dangling on this thread, Just non tender him, and if/when he gets healthy for the 2019 season, sure lets take a look. But I am willing to bet he is going to try and market himself as a starter when he comes back, and with our young arms, we arent going to let him even take a crack at that anymore. Save ourselves the $7+ million it would cost to have a maybe bullpen arm for 2 seasons form now, that would cost us probably another good chunk of change to actually keep. Its just time to move on. 16 hours ago, CWood21 said: Michael Wacha is the other interesting case. His injury history has been well documented, and going into his second year of arbitration he figures to get a significant pay raise over his 2017 salary of $2.75M. It should easily top $5M, and might even push closer to $7M. Prior to the trade of Mike Leake, there was discussion about potentially moving Michael Wacha into the bullpen but that seems unlikely as that creates two rotation spots that need to be filled instead of just one. Barring an injury in the final month or so, I'd imagine the Cardinals tender him arbitration. Unfortunately with the situation we are in, we have to plan on Wacha being a Starter for this team. Now if we do Re-sign Lynn (or some other FA like that) then it becomes a competition of 3 guys for 2 spots, and if Wacha Losses that then he is a bullpen arm. But none of that will be known until the spring. So going into Arbitration, its as a starter and he is set to get a big raise. We dont really have much of a chance, Im just hoping the price for a pitcher we cant always count on stays reasonable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, tttmikeb said: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinals-add-reliever-nicasio-in-exchange-for-prospect-alvarez/article_165ce6b3-bb33-5ecb-a1e6-15f6ac71ea47.html Sounds like a good addition. Too bad we couldn't land him before Sep. 1. Is it? We traded for 24 games of a guy. Not sold thats ever a smart idea Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Does the Nicasio move give us any sort of advantage to signing him in the offseason? This seems like a head scratcher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tttmikeb Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 I mean, there's obviously a limit to what he can do for us this year, but adding a decent pitcher to a bullpen lacking decent pitchers would seem to be a plus, at least in the short term. I don't think we own any technical advantage in being able to re-sign him, but it does allow us to get to know him and him to get to know us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 46 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: We missed the boat on the Rosenthal value train, not once, not twice but 3 separate times. Im done with dangling on this thread, Just non tender him, and if/when he gets healthy for the 2019 season, sure lets take a look. But I am willing to bet he is going to try and market himself as a starter when he comes back, and with our young arms, we arent going to let him even take a crack at that anymore. Save ourselves the $7+ million it would cost to have a maybe bullpen arm for 2 seasons form now, that would cost us probably another good chunk of change to actually keep. Its just time to move on. He can dangle himself as a SP all he wants, but nobody is biting on that. He hasn't been a SP since 2012, and he hasn't thrown more than 100 innings since then. The door to him being a SP is pretty much closed, especially with TJS. LIS, I'm not advocating signing him to a Greg Holland deal, but it's something worth mentioning given his arm talent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 34 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said: Does the Nicasio move give us any sort of advantage to signing him in the offseason? This seems like a head scratcher. Not really, no. I guess it exposes him to St. Louis, which in theory could give the Cardinals an advantage in re-signing him. But otherwise, there really wasn't any real reason to make this trade IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 43 minutes ago, CWood21 said: He can dangle himself as a SP all he wants, but nobody is biting on that. He hasn't been a SP since 2012, and he hasn't thrown more than 100 innings since then. The door to him being a SP is pretty much closed, especially with TJS. LIS, I'm not advocating signing him to a Greg Holland deal, but it's something worth mentioning given his arm talent. I agree that he isnt a Starter, never has been. But HE thinks he is. And with this change in his career, I would be he tried to make the shift and sell someone on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 6, 2017 Author Share Posted September 6, 2017 17 hours ago, CWood21 said: SP - Carlos Martinez ($11.7M) SP - Adam Wainwright ($19.5M) SP - Michael Wacha (Arb 2) SP - Luke Weaver (Minimum) Was going to post this as one big post, but it probably makes it easier to read to break it down into multiple posts. This time, I'm going to take a look at the 2018 Cardinals rotation. Right now, this is who the Cardinals have under contract in the rotation and all should be expected to be in the rotation next year. Carlos Martinez is clearly the ace of the staff, and a safe bet to be at least a 3 WAR SP. Adam Wainwright, despite his velocity/injury issues, is probably a lock to make the rotation given the uncertainty in the back end of the rotation as is Michael Wacha. With the surprising trade of Mike Leake, the Cardinals opened up a rotation spot for Luke Weaver this season and figures to be an easy slot to fill in 2018. In just 36 IP this season, he already accumulated 0.8 WAR. The usual SSS concerns are there, but that's potentially a 3 WAR SP the Cardinals will have for next to nothing. That last rotation spot figures to be the biggest question facing the rotation going into next offseason. Lance Lynn is set to become a FA, Alex Reyes is recovering from TJS, and the Cardinals have a slew of young SP in the AA and AAA levels. Let's start by looking at Lance Lynn. Prior to TJS, Lance Lynn was a reliable 3 WAR SP but his peripherals don't match his results this year. I'm not sure there's any reason to believe that this year back from TJS is something that will continue, but it's something that is worth noting. Also worth noting is that when the Cardinals traded Mike Leake, Lynn said that the Cardinals FO had not been in contact with his agent about signing an extension with the Cardinals. Redbird Rant projected Lynn at 5 years, $85M with a $17M team option for a sixth year back in April. They updated their projection to 4 years, $90M-$100M. Given that Wei-Yin Chen got a 5 year, $80M deal from the Marlins a couple of years back, that's probably the absolute floor and probably not a realistic offer to expect. Jeff Samardzija signed a 5 year, $90M deal with the Giants a few years back, and he's a relatively comparable pitcher. So that likely means Lance Lynn could reasonably search for a 5 year, $95M deal and not be crazy in his demands. That's probably a price tag that's too steep for the Cardinals, so they'll likely offer him the QO and let him decline it. He'd almost assuredly decline it, and assuming a team would offer him a deal north of $50M we'd get a pick. From my understanding, that pick would come after the 2nd round. As for Alex Reyes, the usual recovery for TJS is 12-16 months and he had that surgery back in February, which means he's at best going to return around February of next year. Unfortunately, the biggest issue facing Alex Reyes will be building up arm strength and given that he hasn't gotten a ton of IP it's irresponsible at best to suggest he can handle a full season's workload. In a most likely scenario, he goes off to EST after spring training ends with a chance to get called up to the big leagues in May or June on a strict innings count. I believe the Cardinals still have an option year on Alex Reyes, so in theory they could leave him in Memphis the entire year to rebuild his arm strength and pencil him into the rotation in 2019. Like Luke Weaver, the Cardinals called up Jack Flaherty and made his major league debut against the Giants in what would probably be considered a mixed bag. He gets another start tonight against San Diego, and figures to potentially get four more starts after tonight's game to audition for a starting pitcher spot in 2018. I've expressed my skepticism that the Cardinals would essentially put two rookies into the rotation which likely puts Jack Flaherty back in Memphis in 2018 for more seasoning before eventually taking over a rotation spot in 2019, presumably for Adam Wainwright. Beyond Flaherty, the Cardinals have Dakota Hudson, Zac Gallen, and Austin Gomber at the AAA and AA levels as potential SP depth. The FA class of SP is a mixed bag of results. Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, and potentially Masahiro Tanaka figure to be the biggest available FA. After exploding into MLB as a 4.5 WAR SP, Yu Darvish has been closer to a 3 WAR SP in large part due to injuries. He hasn't thrown over 200 IP since 2013, although he will get close. He doesn't have the QO tied to him, so the Cardinals wouldn't cough up a draft pick for him like they would with Arrieta and Tanaka. Odds are high that Darvish could get a 6 year deal at north of $25M/year which is probably something the Cardinals don't plan on doing. You could say the same thing about Jake Arrieta and Masahiro Tanaka. My best guess is they try and get someone on a 1 year deal and see if they can hold the rotation until midseason when Flaherty/Reyes are ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Can Nicasio be added to the playoff roster in case of injury? Like what the Royals did with Raul Mondesi Jr.? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said: Can Nicasio be added to the playoff roster in case of injury? Like what the Royals did with Raul Mondesi Jr.? I don't believe so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 21 hours ago, CWood21 said: Not really, no. I guess it exposes him to St. Louis, which in theory could give the Cardinals an advantage in re-signing him. But otherwise, there really wasn't any real reason to make this trade IMO. Disagree, this move helps us right now. This team is right there in race for 2nd WC spot and we're hot right now... It bolsters our BP for this stretch run and gives us arguably the best set-up man in the NL this year and more importantly a guy who could be the closer we're missing right now... I like the move. Yah it sucks we didn't pull it off before Sept. 1st, but that's hindsight. He could be a very valuable piece to help push us to the playoffs. Once you get in the playoffs, always have a chance... We didn't loose anything of value either. Jen Langosch reported today Alvarez had fallen out of view in the minors and was likely to be taken off the 40 man in off-season and exposed to rule 5 draft anyway. We clearly didn't value him any longer... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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