StLunatic88 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 44 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I'm not going to disagree with that one, but if he came out and chastise Molina than he had to do the same thing with Matheny. Neither one of them dealt with it through proper channels. I dont disagree that Matheny could have handled it better, BUT managers/coaches make mostly innocent statements about their players like that all the time to the media. And Frankly, I think Mathey was correct in his assessment of Molina. (I rarely agree with anything he does) Yadi has been getting slower the past couple of years after actually being in the best shape of his life for '12/'13, he is getting older that happens. We all see he shouldnt be catching 150 games anymore, but he doesnt want to admit it for pride reasons, and is going to hinder this team for the next 3 years (i.e. Carson Kelly). I actually respect Mike for truthfully answering the question posed to him, instead of the canned BS answer that we usually get. And the fact that no one in the organization called Yadi to the carpet for his childish antics shows me that neither Mike nor even MO have control over this clubhouse anymore. It stems from separate reasons, but all goes back to Ownership. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 42 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I know we've discussed Josh Donaldson and to a lesser extent Evan Longoria, but does anyone think there are any legitimate middle of the order bats available? I do think Stanton, and most guys from the Marlins, are legitimately available. BUT if we are just 1 of 3+ teams going after those guys, it is going to end up costing WAY more that it already should to get Stanton. Im fine looking elsewhere if that is the case. But I truly believe that we are looking to make a move for Josh Donaldson. And I think the package to get him is way different than we currently think it would take. There have been too many unrelated people bring up Randal Grichuk in relation to a deal with the Blue Jays for there not to be some truth to it. Im not saying he is the only piece that it takes, but I think he is someone they clearly covet, and have for awhile now. I think JD may have been a Cardinal already if the pieces they want along with Randal were less at the deadline. And now with this finish, we may be willing to give those guys up (or not insist they take some other dead salary back). But as I look around, I wouldnt be shocked if we dont end up with adding any Pitching to what we are already have, and are going to roll into the season with who is currently on the roster. That would be disappointing, but I think we need to prepare ourselves for it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 I just don't think there are going to be any TOR guys available. This is not the season to have that need. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 (edited) 43 minutes ago, MOSteelers56 said: I just don't think there are going to be any TOR guys available. This is not the season to have that need. But why? Ive asked this before and have yet to hear a legitimate answer other than "I just think so". The Blue Jays finished 17 games out of the Division, 9 games out of the WC. They have already declined Joey Bats option, and still have almost $80m already wrapped up in Just 7 rostered players. all of whom are over 30 (most that are turning 35 shortly). The only other FA money they are shedding is Miguel Montero, and Darwin Barney for about $17m on top of JB's $18m. Plus they have 10 guys going into Arbitration (which means substantial raises from Team Control, which includes Donaldson for his 4th stint in Arbitration, working off of a $17m salary this year) yes they had a nearly $200m total payroll but so much of that was sunk costs they were still carrying. Their Active Payroll was only $125m. They are on the verge of rebuild, mostly around Marcus Stroman, and thats about it. They dont have anyone signed past 2019 other than Tulo. So yes, they could try to grit one more year out with basically the same squad that couldnt get it done this year (quite the fall from back to back ALCS losses) or they can take the action early and try for a reload, rather than a full on rebuild. To me, unless Donaldson is signed long term prior to Arbitration, he is being traded. Edited October 6, 2017 by StLunatic88 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: But why? Ive asked this before and have yet to hear a legitimate answer other than "I just think so". The Blue Jays finished 17 games out of the Division, 9 games out of the WC. They have already declined Joey Bats option, and still have almost $80m already wrapped up in Just 7 rostered players. all of whom are over 30 (most that are turning 35 shortly). The only other FA money they are shedding is Miguel Montero, and Darwin Barney for about $17m on top of JB's $18m. Plus they have 10 guys going into Arbitration (which means substantial raises from Team Control, which includes Donaldson for his 4th stint in Arbitration, working off of a $17m salary this year) yes they had a nearly $200m total payroll but so much of that was sunk costs they were still carrying. Their Active Payroll was only $125m. They are on the verge of rebuild, mostly around Marcus Stroman, and thats about it. They dont have anyone signed past 2019 other than Tulo. So yes, they could try to grit one more year out with basically the same squad that couldnt get it done this year (quite the fall from back to back ALCS losses) or they can take the action early and try for a reload, rather than a full on rebuild. To me, unless Donaldson is signed long term prior to Arbitration, he is being traded. I was saying there aren't any major pitchers available as they are all on contending teams. I think the Jays are very likely to blow it up. I think Donaldson is going to leave and I'd love to bring him in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: But I truly believe that we are looking to make a move for Josh Donaldson. And I think the package to get him is way different than we currently think it would take. There have been too many unrelated people bring up Randal Grichuk in relation to a deal with the Blue Jays for there not to be some truth to it. Im not saying he is the only piece that it takes, but I think he is someone they clearly covet, and have for awhile now. I think JD may have been a Cardinal already if the pieces they want along with Randal were less at the deadline. And now with this finish, we may be willing to give those guys up (or not insist they take some other dead salary back). I guess I'm more skeptical that the Cardinals will be able to strike a deal for Josh Donaldson. By all accounts, there's mutual interest in a long-term deal from what I've read, and I'd imagine that unless Donaldson is asking for a ridiculous amount of money that an extension could be reached. I don't think the Cardinals would be willing to dangle any of their MLB-ready pitching for a potential 1 year rental, which means that Weaver/Flaherty are off the table in terms of trade discussions. Maybe Randal Grichuk is part of the deal, but I can't imagine he holds any real significant value. Perhaps they pair him with someone else to get a deal done. I just don't know who the Jays would want that the Cardinals would be willing to part with. As for J.D. Martinez, Spotrac has him projected to earn a 5 year, $130M deal in the offseason. I'm not sure where I fall on that one. That's a big price to pay, but there's no draft pick attached to him and he's pretty much a LF-only type at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 2 hours ago, StLunatic88 said: But as I look around, I wouldnt be shocked if we dont end up with adding any Pitching to what we are already have, and are going to roll into the season with who is currently on the roster. That would be disappointing, but I think we need to prepare ourselves for it. That's a pretty significant risk. Even if you think you're getting 200 IP from an internal options like Flaherty/Reyes/Gallen, that's still another ~800 innings that are unaccounted for. I mean, you can probably pencil in Carlos Martinez for 200 IP and if Luke Weaver stays in the rotation you can probably squeak another 175 innings out of him before you run the risk of adding too many innings. At the end of the day, do you believe that Waino and Wacha can provide 400+ innings between the two of them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 6, 2017 Author Share Posted October 6, 2017 36 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said: But why? Ive asked this before and have yet to hear a legitimate answer other than "I just think so". Like I mentioned with the middle-of-the-order bats, what TOR starter do you think is going to be reasonably available? Going down the list of SP that accumulated 4+ WAR this season, let's take a look at their likely availability. Chris Sale - Not Available Corey Kluber - Not Available Max Scherzer - Not Available Luis Severino - Not Available Stephen Strasburg - Not Available Carlos Carasco - Not Available Zack Greinke - Probably Not Available Jimmy Nelson - Injured Clayton Kershaw - Not Available Chris Archer - Possibly Available Jacob deGrom - Probably Not Available Aaron Nola - Probably Not Available Justin Verlander - Probably Not Available Jose Quintana - Not Available That's not really a big list. You've really only got Chris Archer whose available. Beyond that, it seems unlikely the Diamondbacks would move on from Greinke given their playoff appearance, and Phillies probably aren't moving Aaron Nola given his age and contract status. It's probably pretty safe to put deGrom in that same list as Nola. So your options are buying low on a guy like Shark, hoping that eating some (if not most) of the salary makes the package softer in terms of dealing prospects. Or you pay big money to a free agent like Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, CWood21 said: Like I mentioned with the middle-of-the-order bats, what TOR starter do you think is going to be reasonably available? Going down the list of SP that accumulated 4+ WAR this season, let's take a look at their likely availability. Yea, egg on my face here guys. MOSteelers said TOR guys and Ive been staring at the Blue Jays thinking of what the Donaldson trade could be. I though he was speaking on TORonto players not Top Of the Rotation guys. I agree with you guys, its unlikely we find a reasonable deal for a guy like that. So I think we are going to lean on Carlos, hope Weaver is able to take a big step, and find us a major Innings eater to bring in. Then hope that Reyes is a full go for the second half, with enough gas left to be a force in the Playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StLunatic88 Posted October 6, 2017 Share Posted October 6, 2017 (edited) Since we've got nothing else to do after missing the playoffs again (and I cant yet put my Mock Offseason skills to use for the Rams already this year) I have put together a plan that I think is equal parts how I would run this offseason and actually keeps itself grounded in realism (mostly). Like, unfortunately for all of us, Mike Matheny isnt going anywhere yet (more to come on that later) so I wont be getting rid of him for a more competent manager. For our starting point, If we do absolutely nothing (only bringing back who we have under team control, minus one obvious injury) We are looking at a 25 man payroll of $119.78m. (plus the dead $17m for Mike Leake) Which is less than the $150m total we spent this year. So first moves first; Arbitration Players With the contracts that Carlos, Wong and Piscotty have signed, we are only looking at 4 guys facing Arbitration. Randal, Wacha and Lyons should be pretty straight forward processes, but there is one big decison to make... Non-Tender Trevor Rosenthal To me this is an absolute no brainer. Rosie is dont for all of 2018, and to pay him anything in Arbitration would basically just be setting money on fire. I dont not have faith that he is coming back at 100% for 2019. If we need BP arms that desperately in a year from now, we will be in bigger trouble than a rebuilt Rosie arm can save us from. Im not against giving him a shot going into 2019, but I dont think there is any logical reason to be paying him for absolute2ly nothing in return. Free Agent Decisions We have less than a handful of true free agents this year, and for the most part we dont need to pay much attention to any of them. Both Zach Duke and Seung-Hwan Oh can walk without a second thought. The younger and cheaper options we have are also producing better results. But the other two guys have decisions/actions we need to take; Qualifying offer for Lance Lynn In no way do i think that Lance will be back with this franchise. Which is very unfortunate as I really like him, and we are in desperate need for Innings eaters in this rotation (more on that later). So with that being said, its another obvious decision to extend the QO (especially with the new rules that do not adversely affect Lynn or the team) and we can end up with an extra draft pick after losing both our first two last year. If for some reason Lance accepted the offer, great, then we have a one year rental to eat up the innings like we need, with zero long term commitment. Re-sign Juan Nicasio Nicasio has been a nice infusion into our Bullpen down the stretch, but that still dosent make the way we traded for him Ok. To me its just a dumb move to trade for a guy who will have such an integral part of your team (closer) would have to be completely removed if you make it to the most important part of the season. Regardless, Nicasio is already making decent money, so his next contract isnt going to be cheap. I would think he is looking at a Cecil-esque contract, possibly even more as he has been a better pitcher going into Free Agency (but Cecil made his money off the playoff performance he had). But if we dont bring back Nicasio, we would be without a Closer (except Wacha who should be there) Wheeling & Dealing (Trades) Looking at the Free Agent landscape, there just inst the right pieces that we need, or that will be worth what we would have to pay in order to bring them in. So as it has been hinted by Mo for most of this season, we need to make some serious trades to not only upgrade the Lineup, but also balance this roster (40 man) as well as fill some holes to solidify this team in order to get back to the playoffs, quickly. I have been waiving this flag for awhile now, but this lineup is just too homogeneous, and our only option is to string 6-7 hits together in order to produce enough runs for a win. Toronto Blue Jays: Josh Donaldson 3B St. Louis Cardinals: Randal Grichuk OF, Dakoda Hudson P, Austin Gomber P Some people will think this is too much to give up for a guy who is only one guaranteed year of control, other will think this isnt nearly enough for a guy of Donaldson's talent, which is exactly why I think this is a reasonable and realistic trade. I still think that for some reason the Jays hold Grichuck in a much higher regard than we realize (for some he still holds that potential hype of the guy the Angles took before Mike Trout). But they know thats not enough, and want some Pitching to help restock. None of our top guys are on the table, but we have such a depth of Pitching Prospects that even our second tier guys are appealing. I still see both Hudson and Gomber are Middle of the Rotation type guys, which are still very valuable assets. And the reason that JD doesnt bring back a mint in return is because this deal is done without an extension being agreed to. We believe we have the money to give him and he will want to stay here that we are willing to take the risk that other teams are not. Los Angeles Angles of Anaheim: Ricky Nolasco P St. Louis Cardinals: Jedd Gyorko IF Now that we have added a big bat at 3B (JD) we have an even bigger surplus of corner infielders. So to shed not only redundant players but also better allocate salaries on the roster, we make a move to swap assets that neither team absolutely needs. Yes we could still used Jedd somewhere, and the Angles could still use Nolasco in the rotation, each team could use the other more. The Angles need to figure out 3B, and while they have some options, none of them are great (or even good for that matter) and Jedd has shown he can be an All-Star caliber bat and very solid glove at the corner. While on the other side Nolasco is nothing to write home about when it comes to performance, he will eat up innings like a machine. Its not the sexiest addition to the rotation, but he is an ideal addition for what we truly need, pushes everyone down a notch in the rotation and gives us flexibility with Waino/Wacha/Reyes later in the season. Nolasco is action only on a one year club option, and would be a salary increase over Gyorko for this season, but it does get us out of the future seasons as his salary jumps. But the Angles have the potential to a longer term solution at third, and the cardinals get the future salary and rotation flexibility as we move toward the younger and cheaper options there. Miami Marlins: Giancarlo Santon OF St. Louis Cardinals: Stephen Piscotty OF, Carson Kelly C, Jack Flaherty P, Aledmys Diaz IF, Junior Fernandez P No, we arent done after picking up Donaldson. That was a big get, this is the HUGE one. There are only a few teams looking to bring on Stanton and his MASSIVE contract. We need to stop worrying about that and just make sure we go get the talent. These 3 trades will increase the payroll alot for this year (and some next) but we just transition into rolling with the stars and scrubs model. Pay top 5-6 guys and trust your young prospects to fill out the rest. We are sending our 2nd and 3rd best prospects in this deal, as well as a cost controlled young OF, and a guy who has shown All-Star flashes last year. Toss on a high upside arm and this is a very big package going Miami's way. 4 guys who would likely start day one for them. SOme will call this not enouogh, and I can understand that. But Miami is looking to shed this money, and I dont see any taking on that on AND giving up a Top 30 prospect. We are sending two Top 50ish prospects, plus 2 guys who have proven themselves in the Big Leagues to some extent. They are able to shed $20m in salary in this year alone with this move while adding depth to their roster. If adding one of O'Neill/Bader/Alcantara to this package, it wouldnt make me walk away from the table. But again, the team trading for him may only be getting him for the next 3 seasons (for $76m) or they may still owe him $30m+ for the next 10 years regardless of how he performs. The uncertainty for his future really limits his trade value (which would be astronomical if you knew what you had for the next 5 years) Free Agent Signing Yes, even after all of those deals, we still need one very important Free Agent acquisition. I actually really thought about a guy like Matt Garza on a shorter 2 year deal to really solidify the rotation and not have to rely on the question marks at all. But with the salary we have already taken on, we just cant do that even for the short term. Chris Iannetta C - 2 years $5.3m We just shipped out what might have been our backstop for the next decade. All while we are relying on the aging Molina who is bound to break down at some point during that massive 3 year extension. Grabbing a reliable backup like Iannetta is essential for the next few years (like we attempted with Carlos Pena the other year) He has been mostly a platoon guy, and while decent this year, I just dont see another team paying him true starter money. Rounding out the roster here, and keeping piece of mind for handling the rotation while we look for another successor behind the plate is what this move is about. 2018 Cardinals Roster The Rotation & Bullpen Carlos Martinez -SP Luke Weaver - SP Ricky Nolasco - SP Adam Wainwright - SP Michael Wacha - SP Juan Nicasio - CL Brett Cecil - RP Tyler Lyons - RP John Brebbia - RP Sam Tuivailala - RP Matthew Bowman - RP Ryan Sherriff - RP This group will allow us to have Alex Reyes take his time and return when full healthy some time during the season. So while still on an innings limit, not have it be a factor unless we reach the World Series and he has been the workhorse in the playoffs. PLus we have a few more guys who will start in the minors and can be factors throughout the season (Gant). Not that he doesnt deserve it, but Tuivailala will start the seaon on the Major League roster as he is out of options at this point. I am still not the most confident in that rotation, but I do believe that Weaver will take another big step next year, and by the stretch run, Martinez, Weaver & Reyes will be a dominant 1-2-3. The Lineup & Bench Matt Carpenter - 1B Dexter Fowler - LF Josh Donaldson - 3B Giancarlo Stanton - RF Paul DeJong - SS Yadier Molina - C Tommy Pham - CF Kolten Wong - 2B Pitcher - P Jose Martinez -1B/LF Greg Garcia - IF Magnerius Sierra - OF Chis Iannetta - C Harrison Bader - OF When you are adding two major bats like Donaldson and Stanton, it is going to drastically change the look of what you are running out there. But if we can make these moves and suddenly two of our hottest and youngest hitters (Pham & DeJong) are forced into the second half of the lineup, adding depth that is hard to match up with. I do like Martinez as an option at First, but I dont want to rely on him playing every day. He is a decent insurance policy for Carp for now. Garcia will be the utility man, and Sierra is the OF who can play in any spot as the 4th guy. And as I said earlier, Iannetta as the the guy who should be getting more starts at Catcher than he ultimately will. The last roster spot was a hard one to me. I dont want to have Bader just sit on the bench all year. He would be better off starting with regular at bats in the minors. Honestly if we make all these moves, it opens a good chunk of 40 man roster spots, I think we would be in the market for a Rule5 pickup and just stash them on the Major League roster all year. But without know who is out there, it would be hard to pick one. But a bat to stash on the bench for a future season would be the perfect fit in that 25th slot. One thing I wanted to address from earlier, I think Mathenys future in this scenario isnt necessarily tied to amount of Wins. it will be how his relationships with Donaldson, Stanton and Martinez are. As keeping those 3 happy going forward and convincing them to stay with the franchise would be much more important that keeping an sub-par manager around. In this scenario we are looking at something like $170m+ payroll for this year, and a drop back down to the $140m-ish region for 2019. Edited October 6, 2017 by StLunatic88 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MOSteelers56 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 I would love that off-season. Getting Donaldson and Stanton would make me a happy man. I don't like losing Kelly but we made our bed with Molina and, unfortunately, now we have to sleep in it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Good work @StLunatic88 on the offseason, I'll dig into it here in a second. Give the man a like for all his hard work if you haven't already. No real issues with the Rosenthal move, it's pretty much what has to happen. He's going to get paid, and he's almost certainly missing the entire year. Maybe he comes back super late, but that's unlikely. I know we've discussed this ad nauseam, but that still seems rather light for Josh Donaldson. I think a Flaherty-for-Donaldson swap has merit, but I don't think the Cardinals will deal Flaherty for a rental, and I don't think the Jays want to put their entire basket in one player either. I just don't see Grichuk having that kind of value, which he's essentially the headliner in this deal. I like Dakota Hudson, but I just don't see him offering the potential that the Jays would want. I'll have to dig into this one more later. Call me crazy, but I wouldn't trade all that for Giancarlo Stanton. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to have in a Cardinals uniform but he's due a TON of money and the Cardinals are giving up a LOT of young talent in that deal. He's still due another $295M over 10 years, which is an insane price tag in itself. The Cardinals would be giving the Marlins a starting OF, starting C, and SP while taking that albatross of a contract off their hands. IF the Cardinals are doing that, the Marlins should be eating a LARGE portion of that contract. That's just way too big of a price tag for the Cardinals IMO, and quite frankly I'm not sure it's wise to tie up ~$30M of our payroll into one player. I mean, the Cardinals went to 10 years, $210M with Pujols, and I don't think a few years of inflation pushes that AAV up to $30M. Pretty indifferent to Ricky Nolasco tbh, and I think I'd rather just deal Gyroko for prospects if that's the case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgarrett12486 Posted October 7, 2017 Share Posted October 7, 2017 Nice breakdown @StLunatic88. While I'd love to see both Donaldson and Stanton, I think it has about a 1% chance of coming to fruition. I can see us parting with a package of our top end prospects, for one or the other, but this would essentially gut us... Nolasco is meh, not sure where he'd upgrade other than just allowing some flexibility... Also, Don't think we're going to role with basically the same BP as last year. Especially if we don't upgrade the rotation. I think you'll see some decent turnover here... Nice job though. Very thorough. You've inspired me to make my off-season soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted October 7, 2017 Author Share Posted October 7, 2017 Jon Heyman had this little nugget the other day, meant to bring it in here to discuss. Quote One Marlins player said he heard word there was talk of interest on the part of the Cardinals, including in Marcell Ozuna, Dee Gordon and Brad Ziegler. The Ziegler talk occurred after Trevor Rosenthal went down. The interest in Ozuna makes sense. We'd be able to slot him into the 4th spot in the batting order. I'm not totally sure the reasoning behind Dee Gordon, unless they're looking to flip Kolten Wong elsewhere which I suppose is a possibility. Ziegler and Gordon make a combined $19.5M next season, plus whatever Ozuna makes in arbitration probably means all three together would be pushing $30M if not more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tttmikeb Posted October 8, 2017 Share Posted October 8, 2017 On 10/5/2017 at 9:45 PM, CWood21 said: Not that I'm arguing one way or the other, but I'd imagine that Mozeliak would prefer his players showing their displeasure in person rather than through the media. I mean, Molina lost it when Matheny went through the media to call him out about being tired. To some degree, you're right. But I think this is different. I don't feel like Pham was seeking an audience to gripe about something. He was asked a question about missing the playoffs, and he responded honestly. He didn't blame anyone. He didn't throw anyone under the bus. He just answered the question in a way that said he wasn't happy about it. There are instances where stuff shouldn't be shared publicly (whether via traditional media or social media), but this isn't one of those instances. I'm 100% with Pham on this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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