The STL Cardinals Thread - Welcome to STL JJ!

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I think there are decent trade possibilities we could get for packages centered around Edman, Donovan, TON, DeJong, Carlson, Jack, Monty, Hicks. But I think we probably add Herrera into something to really improve the return. It’ll take creativity from our FO, though, which is asking a lot. 

You are trading them as the Absolute lowest value right now. Seems silly to do, unless one of them catches fire in July

1 hour ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I wouldn’t normally want to trade Herrera, but Bernal looks like he could be pretty good and we’re stuck with Contreras for awhile. 

I know some are very excited about Bernal, but hes still in Single-A right? And isnt necessarily tearing it up there, seems like alot to be banking on a 19 year old, who is atleast 2 seasons away if not realistically more?

To me the Contraras answer is Ivan Herrera, why are we jumping that solution to look into 2026 for a very hopeful outcome? Had Willson come in and show that he was going to be an every day catcher (or even 3/5 of the days for the rotation) then sure, move Herrera and use Knizner the other days till Bernal is ready in the last 2 years of Contraras' contract. But unless we see some massive turn around this year, Willson is mostly a DH for the foreseeable future. So we need an every day catcher, someone who can be relied on for a 60/40 split, if not closer to 70/30. (it also makes the decision easier to clean up the OF mess, because we dont really have DH to stash one of them anymore)

Also, what contending team is looking for an unproven rookie behind the plate? The earliest he is being delt is the offseason in a package for a Starting Pitcher or something. And at that point, its a different conversation, because we should have a full 2+ months of him in the majors to get a better idea of him (still probably isnt enough)

[MOSteelers56]

3 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

You are trading them as the Absolute lowest value right now. Seems silly to do, unless one of them catches fire in July

I know some are very excited about Bernal, but hes still in Single-A right? And isnt necessarily tearing it up there, seems like alot to be banking on a 19 year old, who is atleast 2 seasons away if not realistically more?

To me the Contraras answer is Ivan Herrera, why are we jumping that solution to look into 2026 for a very hopeful outcome? Had Willson come in and show that he was going to be an every day catcher (or even 3/5 of the days for the rotation) then sure, move Herrera and use Knizner the other days till Bernal is ready in the last 2 years of Contraras' contract. But unless we see some massive turn around this year, Willson is mostly a DH for the foreseeable future. So we need an every day catcher, someone who can be relied on for a 60/40 split, if not closer to 70/30. (it also makes the decision easier to clean up the OF mess, because we dont really have DH to stash one of them anymore)

Also, what contending team is looking for an unproven rookie behind the plate? The earliest he is being delt is the offseason in a package for a Starting Pitcher or something. And at that point, its a different conversation, because we should have a full 2+ months of him in the majors to get a better idea of him (still probably isnt enough)

So Edman/Donovan, Monty, and Jack are the pieces you think are on the block? 

[JonStark]

Tell me Monty didn't just get hurt. 

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, JonStark said:

Tell me Monty didn't just get hurt. 

This is what I’ve been screaming from the rooftops, this is what pussyfooting around does for you. 
Hopefully it’s just a hammy, he can get the ASB rest, thrown one more great start and then TRADE HIM. 

2 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

So Edman/Donovan, Monty, and Jack are the pieces you think are on the block? 

Jack, Monty, Hicks, DeJong, Stratton should all be gone ASAP. Literally zero reason to keep them around any longer.

Id move Edman quickly as well, but if for some reason they are under the impression that he is a legitimate every day SS, then move Donovan (and if that were the case you’re be moving Wynn as well) but I’d send out Edman for sure. 

Unless Goldschmidt or Arenado are pounding the table to be traded, then I’m hanging onto both (actually would offer Goldy a big 2 year extension, maybe even a mutual option for one more beyond that)

Walker should be locked in as your LF going forward (the fact that we messed around with RF at all this year is yet another tick under the ‘WTF are we doing’ column) so I’d give all the other OF at bats to O’Neill/ Carlson/ Nootbar through the rest of July and maybe somebody wants one of them, but if not I’m trading atleast one of if not all of them in the off-season.

This Teams immediate Future is Arenado, Goldschmidt, Mikolas, Walker, Gorman and unfortunately Contreras. Everything else needs to be decided in the next 10 months. Hopefully Wynn is ready to be part of that, same with Herrera. It’s a long shot but maybe one of the OF other than Walker emerges as well, same with one of the young arms (Liberatore, Thompson, Graceffo, etc) Outside of that, we need to bring in from outside of the Organization, and to do that we need to trade for as many assets as possible to flip. 

If we are committed to it, we can be a real contender again for 2024. And it feels like we have to be if Mo & Co want to keep their jobs. 

[holt_bruce81]

I don’t think they trade him, but I want Gilbert. Do you think Edman and Liberatore is enough? 

[CWood21]

11 hours ago, StLunatic88 said:

Id say Edman/Donovan have decent value, and we should be moving on from which ever we value less right now. Although Im sure Mo & Co are going to continue to overvalue any guys who team would actually be interested in (i.e. anyone other than DeJong)

I'd argue we're probably selling light on Edman if they were to shop him.  His BABIP is killing his BA.   I don't think he's necessarily the 6 WAR player he was last year, but I think we wouldn't be maximizing his return.  Plus, he's got 2 more years of arbitration before he hits FA.  I'd need a good amount of value to even consider moving him, and I don't think he's that great of a player.  Absolutely no reason to move Brendan Donovan unless you're trading him for some young, cost-controlled SP.

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said:

I think there are decent trade possibilities we could get for packages centered around Edman, Donovan, TON, DeJong, Carlson, Jack, Monty, Hicks. But I think we probably add Herrera into something to really improve the return. It’ll take creativity from our FO, though, which is asking a lot. 

I wouldn’t normally want to trade Herrera, but Bernal looks like he could be pretty good and we’re stuck with Contreras for awhile. 

There's really no reason to move Ivan Herrera.  At this point, he should probably be our everyday starting catcher.  At this point, Contreras should be our everyday DH which is philosophically everything I'm against.  Let him focus squarely on the bat, and hopefully he creates enough value that you can eventually move his contract to a team at a future deadline as a bat upgrade.

[StLunatic88]

13 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I’d argue we're probably selling light on Edman if they were to shop him.  His BABIP is killing his BA.   I don't think he's necessarily the 6 WAR player he was last year, but I think we wouldn't be maximizing his return

See this is the thing I think we always get hung up on. I’m definitely guilty of it in the past, but you aren’t always going to be getting peak return on guys. We did on Brett Wallace to fleece the A’s for Holliday, but it rarely works that way.

Now you don’t want to sell at the bottom of the Barrel either, hence why I wouldn’t give away TON or Carlson right now. 

But as you pointed out, we know Edman’s BABIP is the issue here, it’s something that we can point out in trade talks. And it’s a tangible reason, not just “oh it’s a slump, he will be back to previous levels once you get him, we want that value in return.

13 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Absolutely no reason to move Brendan Donovan unless you're trading him for some young, cost-controlled SP.

I wouldn’t trade him at all. To me he is the perfect bridge to Masyn Winn, and then a great Super Utility that can play everywhere and give you near starter ABs. Plus he had like double(?) the team control as Edman does at this point. 

Edited July 8, 2023 by StLunatic88

[CWood21]

Steven Matz with the gem today.  Too bad, no run support.

[StLunatic88]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Steven Matz with the gem today.  Too bad, no run support.

We have realistically no choice other than have him some part of the 2024 pitching staff, so we better let him throw the rest of the year and hope he gets everything figured out on a consistent basis. 

He will likely always be overpaid, but he can be atleast a useful starter, probably a #4 in reality, but could be pushed higher if we don’t invest enough this offseason 

[kgarrett12486]

Chase Davis was one of those guys I thought we'd target and turned out so. I really like this pick. Lot of comps to CarGo being thrown around and if you look at their swings side-by-side, very similar.

He's a guy who overcame adversity (which is a positive IMO), as he struggled immensely his freshman year. He improved every year after. He cut his strikeout rate in half last year. Has really good pop. He has ability to play all (3) OF spots, but I think he projects as RF. Has a very good arm from there too. He's pretty close with both Walker and Winn apparently too. Might be a fast track guy we could see MLB ready by 2026. 

If he pans out, we have our corner OF set with Walker and Davis. 

[kgarrett12486]

On 7/7/2023 at 11:57 PM, holt_bruce81 said:

I don’t think they trade him, but I want Gilbert. Do you think Edman and Liberatore is enough? 

I think that package is light. Liberatore's value is in the tank right now.

[StLunatic88]

51 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

Might be a fast track guy we could see MLB ready by 2026. 

I was going to say, its a Very fun Pick. Excited to have that kind of guy in the system, but hes 2/3 years away from seeing the Majors in the best case scenario. 

Its funny to see some online not completely understand how the MLB Draft is completely different than NFL Draft. (happens with the NHL draft too)

[StLunatic88]

51 minutes ago, kgarrett12486 said:

I think that package is light. Liberatore's value is in the tank right now.

Ive been trying to figure out what a Cardinal Package for Shane Bieber would look like this offseaon (where he only has one final year of control) Im usually WAY Over or WAY Under valuing the prospects we would have to send.

[kgarrett12486]

11 minutes ago, StLunatic88 said:

I was going to say, its a Very fun Pick. Excited to have that kind of guy in the system, but hes 2/3 years away from seeing the Majors in the best case scenario. 

Its funny to see some online not completely understand how the MLB Draft is completely different than NFL Draft. (happens with the NHL draft too)

100%. He's a guy that because of his (3) years of college, they put him on the fast track course. Even that though, like you said puts him 2-3 years away. I think best case scenario is he starts out in High A, then gets the AA and AAA promotions in 2025 and then you're talking about a middle-late call MLB up in 2026, unless he just kills it in ST like Walker. Even this is an aggresive model though. Lots of more casual fans out there that don't undersatnd the time it takes to refine these guys, even when there college polished. 

 

Edited July 10, 2023 by kgarrett12486