Valhalla Mock Draft MMXXIII: Chiefs on the Clock (#31)

[swede700]

Bresee's fall has finally stopped at the Eagles' front door (only a slight fall).  We've finally made it to the end of the 1st round, the day before the draft.  I appreciate everyone that took the time to vote.  Outside of that one error made by me, I think it went pretty well.  Without further ado, the Kansas City Chiefs are on the clock.

1.  Panthers - QB CJ Stroud (Ohio St) (11 votes, 2 for Young and Richardson)

2. Texans - QB Bryce Young (Alabama) (13 votes, 4 for Richardson)

3. Cardinals - Edge Will Anderson, Jr (Alabama) (9 votes, 4 for Carter, 1 for Gonzalez)

4. Colts - QB Anthony Richardson (Florida) (12 votes, 10 for Levis)

5. Seahawks - DT Jalen Carter (Georgia) (10 votes, 4 for Wilson, 3 for others)

6. Lions - Edge Tyree Wilson (Texas Tech) (7 votes, 4 for Gonzalez, 4 for others)

7. Raiders - QB Will Levis (Kentucky) (3 votes, 2 for Gonzalez, 1 each for 6 others)

8. Falcons - Edge Myles Murphy (7 votes, 4 for Gonzalez, 5 for others)

9. Bears - OT Paris Johnson, Jr (Ohio St) (6 votes, 3 each for Jones and Skoronoski)

10. Eagles - CB Christian Gonzalez (Oregon) (4 votes, 3 for Robinson, 2 for Smith and Van Ness, 2 for others)

11. Titans - OT Broderick Jones (Georgia) (5 votes, 4 for Skoronski, 4 for others)

12. Texans - WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Ohio St) (6 votes, 5 for Johnston, 4 for others)

13. Jets - OT Peter Skoronski (Northwestern) (10 votes, 1 each for Witherspoon, Johnston, and Bresee)

14. Patriots - CB Devon Witherspoon (Illinois) (7 votes, 3 for Smith, 5 for others)

15. Packers - TE Michael Mayer (Notre Dame) (8 votes, 2 each for Smith and Van Ness, 4 for others)

16. Commanders - CB Joey Porter, Jr (Penn St) (8 votes, 1 for Johnston)

17. Steelers - OT Dawand Jones (Ohio St) (4 votes, 2 each for Bresee and Smith, 2 for others)

18. Lions - TE Darnell Washington (Georgia) (4 votes, 3 for Bresee, 4 for others)

19. Buccaneers - Edge Nolan Smith (Georgia) (4 votes, 4 for others)

20. Seahawks - C John Michael Schmitz (Minnesota) (5 votes, 3 for Torrence, 2 for others)

21. Chargers - TE Luke Musgrave (Oregon St) (3 votes, 2 for Banks and Robinson, 2 for others)

22. Ravens - WR Jordan Addison (USC) (4 votes, 3 for Johnston, 2 for others)

23. Vikings - CB Deonte Banks (Maryland) (11 votes, 4 for Bresee, 3 for Hooker, 5 for others)

24. Jaguars - S Brian Branch (Alabama) (4 votes, 3 votes for others)

25. Giants - OG O'Cyrus Torrence (Florida) (3 votes, 2 for Torrence, 2 for others)

26. Cowboys - RB Bijan Robinson (Texas) (5 votes, 3 for Kincaid, 3 for others)

27. Bills - OT Darnell Wright (Tennessee) (4 votes, 3 for Flowers, 5 for others)

28. Bengals - TE Dalton Kincaid (Utah) (3 votes, 2 for Harrison and Bresee, 3 for others)

29. Saints - Edge Lukas Van Ness (Iowa) (3 votes, 2 for Kancey and Bresee, 2 for others)

30. Eagles - DT Bryan Bresee (Clemson) (5 votes, 4 for others)

 

[JDBrocks]

QJ one more time. That is an offense where he can grow and develop without being counted on as an early contributor.

[Cearbhall]

As y'all work through the same exercise this year, I was curious to see how last year's exercise compared to what actually happened.  Y'all did a fairly respectable job prognosticating the picks.  I like how the number of votes was noted at the time the selection was made.  I can still vote in these polls last year to change vote numbers otherwise.

I'm curious, based on expectations versus what actually happened, did we learn anything after this exercise last year? It looks like RBs went a lot higher than the board thought.  That surprised me as I felt the league had been devaluing the position. Apparently, they hadn't devalued it as much as we had.  Will we be surprised by a RB or two being drafted much higher than we expected again?

After nailing the first three QBs in this mock draft, the board greatly over drafted Will Levis.  I can see a similar scenario this year, but I don't think that QB4 will still be on the board after the first round.  I will be surprised, however, if five QBs are drafted in the first round this year ('24) especially all in the top 12 picks given the strength of some other positions this year and the talent level of the '24 QB pool in general after the first few. 

Those participating in this exercise last year thought the MN center Schmitz would go much higher than he did.  I wonder if that was related to hometown bias.  If so, I don't know there is a Gopher this year that will have a similar bias in the Vikings poll, but I would personally love to get a center. If they go lower than we think perhaps the Vikings will have some good options to pick from whenever they pick after the first year.

Anyone else have any observations based on the board's mock draft exercise last year that may be instructional?  Or a lesson learned that they are using to try and improve performance this year?

[SemperFeist]

3 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Anyone else have any observations based on the board's mock draft exercise last year that may be instructional?

There is always far, far more emphasis on team need with these poll mocks than what really happens. Team A needs position X, therefore people tend to vote for who they think is the best player at that position. You’re already seeing it in the current poll. 

Another thing is that a lot of people base their rankings on a vertical big board, rather than a lateral board. Because that’s how it’s mainly displayed amongst draft analysts. This tends to skew people’s view on “best player available”. 

Also, because most people on this site are here because of the draft, we all tend to always have an ear or an eye out for the latest rumors, and people tend to get caught up in the misinformation that gets put out the closer you get to the draft. Case in point, the late push for the Will Levis hype train that took off in April last year. 

[vike daddy]

43 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Case in point, the late push for the Will Levis hype train that took off in April last year. 

oh yeah, wasn't there talk of him being drafted at 4 or something?

[The Gnat]

45 minutes ago, vike daddy said:

oh yeah, wasn't there talk of him being drafted at 4 or something?

He was betting odds favorite for about two days in Vegas about a week (maybe two) prior to the draft. Or at least betting odds favorite for #2.

[SemperFeist]

2 hours ago, vike daddy said:

oh yeah, wasn't there talk of him being drafted at 4 or something?

And he was heavily tied to the Vikings. Many people had Minnesota trading up to get him.

Which is why, it’s my conspiracy theory that it was Minnesota who was largely responsible for the reports of him going so high. 

Edited April 5 by SemperFeist