NFL Draft GDT (NO SPOILERS!!))

[J-ALL-DAY]

59 minutes ago, Justone2 said:

4-10 doesn't really give m that much hope for those 50+ yarders. Feel Moody is more that Gould type where he kicks everything under 50 very consistent but over that isn't really his thing. 

It's hard to really use those college stats to project on 50+ yarders to be honest. Like Justin Tucker is the GOAT while he was only 2-4 over 50 yards in college. 

Boswell has gone 7-9 and 8-9 from 50+ yarders the last two years while he was 2-6 in his senior year in college from that range. 

What I look for is if Moody has the leg and can he make kicks in pressure situations? I think he does, so now he's just going to need to clean it up a bit and be more consistent from that range in the NFL.

I will be very surprised if Moody doesn't become one of the best kickers from pretty much day one. 

[Forge]

5 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

It's hard to really use those college stats to project on 50+ yarders to be honest. Like Justin Tucker is the GOAT while he was only 2-4 over 50 yards in college. 

Boswell has gone 7-9 and 8-9 from 50+ yarders the last two years while he was 2-6 in his senior year in college from that range. 

I actually agree with you - he has the leg and it needs to be fine tuned on 50+ is all. That said, this is a perfect encapsulation on why you shouldn't draft a kicker in the third round for me lol. I don't think the NFL has any way to really evaluate them. 

[Justone2]

19 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

It's hard to really use those college stats to project on 50+ yarders to be honest. Like Justin Tucker is the GOAT while he was only 2-4 over 50 yards in college. 

Boswell has gone 7-9 and 8-9 from 50+ yarders the last two years while he was 2-6 in his senior year in college from that range. 

What I look for is if Moody has the leg and can he make kicks in pressure situations? I think he does, so now he's just going to need to clean it up a bit and be more consistent from that range in the NFL.

I will be very surprised if Moody doesn't become one of the best kickers from pretty much day one. 

Oh sure but i don't really care for those 50+ attempts as long as he nails everything that should be automatic. If he then can kick some of those 50+ ones especially at clutch times it would be great but give me Gould over any kicker that might be better long range but misses more in the shorter area's.

[J-ALL-DAY]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

I actually agree with you - he has the leg and it needs to be fine tuned on 50+ is all. That said, this is a perfect encapsulation on why you shouldn't draft a kicker in the third round for me lol. I don't think the NFL has any way to really evaluate them. 

Yeah, Tucker went undrafted and there is a chance the kicker the Rams signed as an UDFA may end up being the best kicker of the class.

I just already put it in my head that they were going to take a kicker in the 3rd round so I was prepared for this lol. Surprised they didn't draft someone like Freeland in the 3rd. 

[NinerNation21]

7 minutes ago, Forge said:

I actually agree with you - he has the leg and it needs to be fine tuned on 50+ is all. That said, this is a perfect encapsulation on why you shouldn't draft a kicker in the third round for me lol. I don't think the NFL has any way to really evaluate them. 

From watching the post-draft presser, it sounds like they essentially left this up to Schneider and his crew to evaluate kickers. They got a list of the top 5 kickers and worked them all out, did their due diligence with their college coaching staffs, and had some outside assistance with evaluating leg swing motions and all the bio-mechanical stuff. Jake Moody ended up being the top guy and they took him. 

The process was sound and it seems like they really know the guy and they expect a quick assimilation from him. If all of this happens the way they think it will, then the pick is fine for me.

[JIllg]

8 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Yeah, Tucker went undrafted and there is a chance the kicker the Rams signed as an UDFA may end up being the best kicker of the class.

I just already put it in my head that they were going to take a kicker in the 3rd round so I was prepared for this lol. Surprised they didn't draft someone like Freeland in the 3rd. 

Yeah, I thought that made all of the sense in the world. Even if you like McKivitz starting, neither he nor Jaylon Moore are long term solutions. Future starting RT and FS were the clearest holes for next year to address. And you had Joe Staley announcing the picks. And the value was much, much better than TE was at the time. I get that you wanted two TEs. But if you wanted it that badly, you should have gone to get a player higher up that was more likely to perform as the second George Kittle type than Latu was. Brenton Strange went some picks before. He wasn't my favorite, but I'd be much more comfortable with him in that roster spot than Latu. At least he broke tackles and was a seriously rugged blocker. Kraft went a few picks before that. Kraft had a similar grade for me as Michael Mayer and he went in the early second. He wouldn't have just given you a Kittle backup, he'd have added some traits that we just didn't have in the TE room in addition to performing that role. Anyhow, it's like Ty Davis-Price last year. I don't get it at all. They have been right on some guys that I felt this way about because they had some secret athleticism information in the past. But I don't have that information, so it's a head-scratcher. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by JIllg
completeness

[J-ALL-DAY]

2 minutes ago, JIllg said:

Yeah, I thought that made all of the sense in the world. Even if you like McKivitz starting, neither he nor Jaylon Moore are long term solutions. Future starting RT and FS were the clearest holes for next year to address. And you had Joe Staley announcing the picks. And the value was much, much better than TE was at the time. I get that you wanted two TEs. But if you wanted it that badly, you should have gone to get a player higher up that was more likely to perform as the second George Kittle type than Latu was. Brenton Strange went some picks before. He wasn't my favorite, but I'd be much more comfortable with him in that roster spot than Latu. At least he broke tackles and was a seriously rugged blocker. Kraft went a few picks before that. Kraft had a similar grade for me as Michael Mayer and he went in the early second. He wouldn't have just given you a Kittle backup, he'd have added some traits that we just didn't have in the TE room in addition to performing that role. Anyhow, it's like Ty Davis-Price last year. I don't get it at all. They have been right on some guys that I felt this way about because they had some secret athleticism information in the past. But I don't have that information, so it's a head-scratcher. 

I initially said Latu was my favorite pick but after watching more of him and some of the other prospects (didn't watch many prospects this year), I ended up souring on the pick. I get that he is raw at the position and they probably feel they can make him a better blocker while being a solid RZ threat from day one....but a guy like Freeland is someone like you said could be our RT of the future. I knew we weren't going to address the interior of the OL for better or worse as the team is high on Poe and Zakelj going forward...but at tackle? Like Trent has a few more seasons but is getting injured more and more while McKivitz has big question marks. This team certainly operates in its own way that only makes sense to them lol.

[Forge]

33 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

From watching the post-draft presser, it sounds like they essentially left this up to Schneider and his crew to evaluate kickers. They got a list of the top 5 kickers and worked them all out, did their due diligence with their college coaching staffs, and had some outside assistance with evaluating leg swing motions and all the bio-mechanical stuff. Jake Moody ended up being the top guy and they took him. 

The process was sound and it seems like they really know the guy and they expect a quick assimilation from him. If all of this happens the way they think it will, then the pick is fine for me.

2 of the last 15 drafted kickers got second contracts with the team that drafted them. As of right now, there is only a hypothetically sound process for evaluating them and there's a questionable amount of patience lol 

Having your staff do the work is one of the worst ways to go about it, so hopefully they really just let the outside guys take this one.  Phil Dawson once said  that he thought ignorance across the league regarding what went into kicking a field goal was super high. He said teams and coaches had no idea what to look for. 

So I would focus on he outside assistance. That's probably how it needs to done and where the emphasis should come from, so hopefully they got some really quality help there. Dawson said that they needed to focus on the leg motion, how easy and repeatable it was, etc, which makes total sense. Mechanics need to be good.

It also puts your roster in a weird spot, potentially. The job is his.  What if he struggles out of the gate?  Are you going to flush him? The vikings cut Daniel Carlson because he missed 3 field goals against green bay. He's since been one of the best kickers in the league, but I don't know that Minnesota is wrong if they were trying to win a super bowl that year. So would you cut him? Let him potentially ruin a super bowl run? You're not carrying two kickers most likely. That's a hypothetical situation, but it's worth monitoring because thats a decision that could very much need to be made. 

There's no sound process that results in drafting a kicker in the third to me,  but hopefully, as you said, the process was sound for actually evaluating the kicker and proves to be a good result. 

 

[JIllg]

19 minutes ago, Forge said:

2 of the last 15 drafted kickers got second contracts with the team that drafted them. As of right now, there is only a hypothetically sound process for evaluating them and there's a questionable amount of patience lol 

Having your staff do the work is one of the worst ways to go about it, so hopefully they really just let the outside guys take this one.  Phil Dawson once said  that he thought ignorance across the league regarding what went into kicking a field goal was super high. He said teams and coaches had no idea what to look for. 

So I would focus on he outside assistance. That's probably how it needs to done and where the emphasis should come from, so hopefully they got some really quality help there. Dawson said that they needed to focus on the leg motion, how easy and repeatable it was, etc, which makes total sense. Mechanics need to be good.

It also puts your roster in a weird spot, potentially. The job is his.  What if he struggles out of the gate?  Are you going to flush him? The vikings cut Daniel Carlson because he missed 3 field goals against green bay. He's since been one of the best kickers in the league, but I don't know that Minnesota is wrong if they were trying to win a super bowl that year. So would you cut him? Let him potentially ruin a super bowl run? You're not carrying two kickers most likely. That's a hypothetical situation, but it's worth monitoring because thats a decision that could very much need to be made. 

There's no sound process that results in drafting a kicker in the third to me,  but hopefully, as you said, the process was sound for actually evaluating the kicker and proves to be a good result. 

 

Daniel Carlsen was also a Jake Moody level folk hero at Auburn. He was the SEC's all time leading scorer. Hit a bunch of 50 yard kicks. He wasn't on teams that had opportunities for as many big kicks as Moody did, but he was known as (the now common) "Legatron" for a reason. And he's been really good in the NFL after that day struggling with the Vikings. It's just that the one day can get a coach to sour on you no matter how good your underlying performance is. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

2 hours ago, JIllg said:

Daniel Carlsen was also a Jake Moody level folk hero at Auburn. He was the SEC's all time leading scorer. Hit a bunch of 50 yard kicks. He wasn't on teams that had opportunities for as many big kicks as Moody did, but he was known as (the now common) "Legatron" for a reason. And he's been really good in the NFL after that day struggling with the Vikings. It's just that the one day can get a coach to sour on you no matter how good your underlying performance is. 

Dude is such a weapon for the Raiders. 21-24 from 50+ yards the last three years is stupid good lol.

But yeah, one bad game and he was out of there in Minnesota. If Moody has a bad game, at least he knows he will still be on the team since the team took him in the 3rd round.....which is the equivalent of taking a QB in the top 2 lol.

[NinerNation21]

I just finished watching some tape on the new draft picks. Here's some of my thoughts:

Ji'Ayir Brown

Brown feels like he's tailor-made for our team - smart, instinctive player who is versatile and is a solid tackler. I loved watching him on blitzes. He had some nice moves on TE stunts he ran. His jab-step and crossover move is pretty wicked. He looks like Allen Iverson breaking ankles.

I like that he seems to be able to line up just about anywhere on the field and he looks so good coming downhill and imposing his will on ball carriers. It will be nice for him to learn from a true professional like Gibson this year. I'm very excited to see what he becomes. 

Dee Winters

He really does look like a more compact Dre Greenlaw. I love the way he finds the rushing lanes and shoots through them to punish ballcarriers. His seek-and-destroy ability is very fun to watch. He looks like he'd be a really fun hook defender in the cover 3 where he can come downhill on screens, swing passes, and toss/stretch runs. 

It's also really cool that he's known as the alpha leader on the TCU defense and he gets to learn how to enhance his leadership skills from Fred Warner. This could be a big-time steal for us. Between Winters, Brown, and Huf, we're going to have at least one defender knifing into the backfield and causing chaos often. 

Robert Beal

Watching his tape, it's clear that his first step burst is uncanny. Lynch and Peters both referenced this in their pressers, but Beal is tailor-made for Coach K's GTFO mantra. Peters said the analytics department developed a method to measuring burst within the first two yards of the get off and Beal's was tied for #1 in this class. 

His burst and long arms are going to cause a lot of problems for OT's and when Beal adds some technique to his game, he could be a deadly 3rd-down specialist. It might take most of his rookie contract to get there, though.  

Cameron Latu

He looks a little unspectacular, but he seems very reliable as a safety outlet in the passing game. There were numerous times where Bryce Young was looking to hit the shot play but it wasn't there, then moved around to hit Latu for a decent to significant gain either out in the flats or between zone defenders 5-10 yards from the LoS. 

I think that kind of role can translate to the 49ers. We have weapons everywhere and Latu seems like he can find the holes in the zone and make himself available as the last resort. He seemed to be often overlooked by defenders only for him to make the catch and pick up a 1st down. 

It will be interesting to see what he develops into. He could be Ross Dwelley with better blocking skills, which would be a valuable contributor. 

Brayden Willis

Where Latu is boring is where Willis is exciting. He looks like a natural pass catcher and he LOVES to block. He seems like a great fit for Shanny's offense. I think Kittle is going to love this kid. 

[Chrissooner49er]

George went to high school in Norman because his father was Stoops' OL coach. I do not know if he was offered a scholarship by Bob, but he went to Iowa because his father and uncle went there. 

Willis spent 5 years in Norman, so he and Kittle will have plenty to talk about. 

[J-ALL-DAY]

So it looks like we signed some intriguing OL as UDFAs. Which one has the best chance to make the roster from day one? 

[Chrissooner49er]

Just now, J-ALL-DAY said:

So it looks like we signed some intriguing OL as UDFAs. Which one has the best chance to make the roster from day one? 

I think Fisher has the greatest chance, just going from initial impression. 

[NinerNation21]

Our picks for the 2024 draft:

• 1st round
• 2nd round
• 3rd round
• 3rd round comp pick (Carthon)
• 3rd round comp pick (McGlinchey)
• 4th round pick
• 5th round comp pick (Ebukam)
• 6th round pick
• 6th round comp pick (Ward)
• 6th round comp pick (Moseley)
• 7th round pick

Same amount of picks as the '23 draft, but we get 1st and 2nd round picks back, unless we decide to trade them in-season.

Next year's draft should be a lot of fun.