2024 NFL Draft

[big_palooka]

5 hours ago, ronjon1990 said:

So are we now just gonna compare every semi mobile QB who runs around and makes plays against lesser competition to Patrick Mahomes? 

The "play creator" fetish is unreal. It's like people just forget the slew of guys who "create outside the pocket with mobility" that flopped miserably in the NFL. Better yet, why don't we compare them to Jalen Hurts as a prospect? Is it because he wasn't universally considered a 1st rounder? So much hyperbole. 

With Williams in particular, I really really really don't get it. 

We're basically not allowed to question his actions. 

We're expected to excuse all shortcomings by sheer default. 

Where's the criticism of him playing in a QB friendly system? 

Why all the excuses for the guy? Because he had a good year one year that led to a Heisman? Troy Smith, anyone? Lol. 

I honestly wonder how many people really, truly believe he's genuinely worth the first overall pick at this point. Yes, he's probably going 1st overall. I'm not debating that. But how many people follow up a critique of him or a statement that Maye is better with "but Williams is still worthy of the top pick" actually mean that, and how many are just saying it to keep peace and go with the flow? 

I'm just gonna put it out there right now- I don't think he's worth a 1st rounder at all and wouldn't take him if I were one of the 32 people deciding on who to take. I think he's more likely a bust and wouldn't take him until a day 3 flyer for a project QB. I know he'll go before some other guys- so did RG3, Jake Locker, Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Kyler of Duty, Justin Fields, and Bryce Young. And like them, I don't think Caleb Williams has much of an NFL future. Saying it now so I can eat crow if needed or not be accused of bandwagoning when he flops. I refuse to buy the hype. 

I'll breathe a sigh of relief when he's off the board to someone else and we'll revisit in 2027 or 2028 when his team is looking for their QBOTF again. 

Shame we won't get Maye, but McCarthy, Penix, Nix, or Pratt would be a fine consolation prize, imo. 

Great post.  And while maybe a little over the top as far as criticism, you're hitting some good points. I agree with the play extender/creator fetish. The NFL game is still played from the pocket. I prefer mobility in a QB. Think he needs to have some of that ability in the modern game, but it's being overvalued in search of the next Mahomes. 

Williams got the "generational talent" tag and everyone just went with it without much question. How much of his success is attributed to Lincoln Riley's offense?

What shortcoming are you referring to say he's a day 3 pick though, because that seems a bit harsh. 

[Geezy]

Caleb’s not #1 anymore because his defense is garbage 😂

[NCOUGHMAN]

1 hour ago, Geezy said:

Caleb’s not #1 anymore because his defense is garbage 😂

Caleb got exposed once defenses started playing with at least 4 dlineman. If you watch 90% of his big plays are vs 3 man fronts and he has at least 5 blockers. So he can run around and eventually a guy will get open and he has the supreme arm talent to get it there. I been said that since last year. 

[ronjon1990]

4 hours ago, big_palooka said:

Great post.  And while maybe a little over the top as far as criticism, you're hitting some good points. I agree with the play extender/creator fetish. The NFL game is still played from the pocket. I prefer mobility in a QB. Think he needs to have some of that ability in the modern game, but it's being overvalued in search of the next Mahomes. 

Williams got the "generational talent" tag and everyone just went with it without much question. How much of his success is attributed to Lincoln Riley's offense?

What shortcoming are you referring to say he's a day 3 pick though, because that seems a bit harsh. 

Part of it is simply because I'm just that confident he won't pan out. I'd never write a Heisman winner off 100%, but I wouldn't take a guy I thought had bust tattooed across his forehead prior to day 3. 

The other part of it is his lack of production against quality opposition. Kudos to him for the big day vs Washington. I expected a slaughter.  But the list of QBs that have had the random big day against a good team is extensive. Caleb is getting extra credit for it from people because of the "generational" label- he finally has a big day against a real challenge and everyone goes "See, we told you all!". 

His overall production against good competition (and this year, even against lackluster competition in some cases) still isn't good. If this was the season he had last year, he would probably be considered a 6th or 7th rounder. He's riding a ton of good will from that Heisman. That isn't good enough for me. 

Look, yes, I get the defenses- USC's D isn't good. We all know that. There's no denying it. But Caleb doesn't play defense, he plays QB. He could still be productive against good competition, and as a super hyped "generational" prospect he should, even if his defense doesn't show up. He simply has not. 

So what's the deal with him? The offense hasn't changed all that much from last year. He's still throwing to most of the same guys and being blocked by a lot of the same guys and the same people are calling the shots on offense. But....the Pac12, seemingly top to near bottom from the looks of it, seems to have grown defenses overnight and Caleb and the high octane offense just can't buzzsaw through the vast majority of their schedule anymore. 

I made a similar criticism of Zach Wilson a couple years ago. He was a "creator that just made plays" and while he didn't win the Heisman, he was getting Heisman hype his last season at BYU. My argument was he didn't really do much outside of that season, his production was unimpressive, and the schedule BYU was playing that year was essentially a proxy SunBelt schedule. What was all the hype about? It screamed flavor of the week. I feel similar to Caleb Williams, with the big statisticalyears simply reversed. 

In game, I've seen a lot of Bad Russell Wilson traits. How many times has Williams fumbled in a big a spot this year? How many unnecessary sacks has he taken trying to play hero ball? That was one of my biggest criticisms of Russell Wilson for years- though it was so taboo forever- that for every "wow" play made on 3rd and 24 that made ESPN highlight reels, he was only in 3rd and 24 to begin with because he would constantly run around and try to create plays instead of taking what was given. Once Seattle's D dried up and the weapons around Wilson dropped off in quality, he's been pretty average and borderline laughably bad at times. 

As of today, Caleb Williams' draft profile basically looks like this for me:

- Less than ideal height, but decent to very good mobility and a solid arm. 

- Bad overall individual output in big spots against good defense. 

- Turnover, sack, mistake prone in tight situations. 

- Not clutch. 

- Serious concerns about character- big ego, immature, me-first vibes. 

- Struggles playing within structure. 

- Makes highlight magic against lower level competition. 

- Statistically bipolar depending on the quality of defense played against (puts up video game numbers pretty routinely vs bad comp, lays eggs pretty routinely vs good). 

- Plays in a QB friendly system. 

- 1 great statistical season on a near "dream team" transfer heavy squad.  

- Too quick to leave the pocket. 

- Too reliant on off base throws and wonky angles. 

For me, that's very close to undraftable. If Caleb Williams played at a non-blue chip program, say he played at Kansas St- he wouldn't be getting the same hype or adoration. 

As far as his on-field stuff, sure there's some similarities to Mahomes in regars to the throwing angles and such, but a lot of people can do that stuff. What makes Mahomes successful with it isn't that he can do it, it's that he knows when to, when not to, has great coaching, and this might chap some hides but he also has the teammates to actually make it work. Hill, when he was around, Kelce, etc, those guys allow a QB to take those hope-and-prayer type of throws.

Pat Mahomes, good as he is, isn't the only reason the Chiefs win a lot. They were winning a good deal with Alex Smith too. They upgraded and the results have borne fruit. Mahomes has gotten better as a QB and the offense is better off for it. And it needed to happen, because Mahomes will probably never replicate 2018's statistical brilliance. Taboo, maybe, because they've won so much, but Mahomes' actual output for most of the rest of his career are closer to "really good" numbers than "great" ones. 

What I'm trying to get at- not bashing Mahomes- is that Mahomes isn't exactly the archetype QB I'd choose to find a Great Value version of. Mahomes, Rodgers, Lamar, these guys are extreme outliers. I get the whole "copycat league" thing, but anyone notice that teams didn't start banking their franchise futures on marginally athletic 6th round QBs after Brady? Because they understood it was an exception. 

For me, all this just takes Williams all the way out of day 1 contention. Again, I know he will be a top 10 pick. Just not one I would make. 

 

[Geezy]

Let’s see what McCarthy is about. 

[Geezy]

Crazy how you can protect a Qb with a good defense. 

[NCOUGHMAN]

My not liking lbs so far this year

gotta watch more leaning towards the lsu lbs

Clemson lb #8 is ok but not as good as last years lb

N dame lb is fast but not good at technique 

[Humble_Beast]

On 11/8/2023 at 9:05 AM, MrOaktown_56 said:

I know people are not huge Penix fans, but in the 2nd round he would be great value. He definitely has good down the field accuracy and touch. 

I would all over Pennix in the 2nd. I would trade up to early 2nd like we should have for Levis. There's going be a good QB in the 2nd. Everyone looks good in college I guess, but theres so many good QB options 

Top 5 Locks:

• Caleb Williams - 6'1 
• Drake Maye - 6'4 

1st Round in most mocks 

• Bo Nix - 6'2 
• JJ McCarthy - 6'3 

2nd round bargains 

• Michael Pennix - 6'3 
• Jayden McDaniels - 6'4 
• Jordan Travis - 6'1 
• Quinn Ewers - 6'2 
• Cam Ward- 6'2 
• Michael Pratt - 6'3 
• Spencer Rattler - 6'1 

[Jeremy408]

32 minutes ago, Humble_Beast said:

I would all over Pennix in the 2nd. I would trade up to early 2nd like we should have for Levis. There's going be a good QB in the 2nd. Everyone looks good in college I guess, but theres so many good QB options 

Top 5 Locks:

• Caleb Williams - 6'1 
• Drake Maye - 6'4 

1st Round in most mocks 

• Bo Nix - 6'2 
• JJ McCarthy - 6'3 

2nd round bargains 

• Michael Pennix - 6'3 
• Jayden McDaniels - 6'4 
• Jordan Travis - 6'1 
• Quinn Ewers - 6'2 
• Cam Ward- 6'2 
• Michael Pratt - 6'3 
• Spencer Rattler - 6'1 

See my thing is where we're picking I'm liking the second round bargains if we can take advantage of the Defensive players we can get in the 1st. Or maybe even an RT. But ultimately it depends where we pick. If we're in like the top 12 I like McCarthy that guy looks like he can be molded into a star. 

[NYRaider]

On 11/9/2023 at 11:49 PM, ronjon1990 said:

So are we now just gonna compare every semi mobile QB who runs around and makes plays against lesser competition to Patrick Mahomes? 

The "play creator" fetish is unreal. It's like people just forget the slew of guys who "create outside the pocket with mobility" that flopped miserably in the NFL. Better yet, why don't we compare them to Jalen Hurts as a prospect? Is it because he wasn't universally considered a 1st rounder? So much hyperbole. 

With Williams in particular, I really really really don't get it. 

We're basically not allowed to question his actions. 

We're expected to excuse all shortcomings by sheer default. 

Where's the criticism of him playing in a QB friendly system? 

Why all the excuses for the guy? Because he had a good year one year that led to a Heisman? Troy Smith, anyone? Lol. 

I honestly wonder how many people really, truly believe he's genuinely worth the first overall pick at this point. Yes, he's probably going 1st overall. I'm not debating that. But how many people follow up a critique of him or a statement that Maye is better with "but Williams is still worthy of the top pick" actually mean that, and how many are just saying it to keep peace and go with the flow? 

I'm just gonna put it out there right now- I don't think he's worth a 1st rounder at all and wouldn't take him if I were one of the 32 people deciding on who to take. I think he's more likely a bust and wouldn't take him until a day 3 flyer for a project QB. I know he'll go before some other guys- so did RG3, Jake Locker, Mitch Trubisky, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins, Kyler of Duty, Justin Fields, and Bryce Young. And like them, I don't think Caleb Williams has much of an NFL future. Saying it now so I can eat crow if needed or not be accused of bandwagoning when he flops. I refuse to buy the hype. 

I'll breathe a sigh of relief when he's off the board to someone else and we'll revisit in 2027 or 2028 when his team is looking for their QBOTF again. 

Shame we won't get Maye, but McCarthy, Penix, Nix, or Pratt would be a fine consolation prize, imo. 

If you’d dont  see the comparison between Caleb and Mahomes you simply don’t know hall 

[NYRaider]

2 hours ago, Geezy said:

Let’s see what McCarthy is about. 

He don’t throw lol

[NYRaider]

On 11/10/2023 at 5:41 AM, big_palooka said:

Great post.  And while maybe a little over the top as far as criticism, you're hitting some good points. I agree with the play extender/creator fetish. The NFL game is still played from the pocket. I prefer mobility in a QB. Think he needs to have some of that ability in the modern game, but it's being overvalued in search of the next Mahomes. 

Williams got the "generational talent" tag and everyone just went with it without much question. How much of his success is attributed to Lincoln Riley's offense?

What shortcoming are you referring to say he's a day 3 pick though, because that seems a bit harsh. 

Are we really going to act like Lincoln’s offense hasn’t produced heisman winners, #1 picks, and starting QBs in the NFL? 

What other coach has produced better QBs than Kyler, Baker, and Hurts? 

[big_palooka]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

Are we really going to act like Lincoln’s offense hasn’t produced heisman winners, #1 picks, and starting QBs in the NFL? 

What other coach has produced better QBs than Kyler, Baker, and Hurts? 

Outside Hurts, who was who he was at Alabama and developed in. Philly, what have the other 2 accomplished as pros? Kind of the point. What they were in Lincoln Riley's offense hasn't translated to the NFL much. 

[Humble_Beast]

studs at potential positions of 1st round targets 

T- Olu Fashanu, Joe Alt, Tali Fuaga, JC Latham, Amarius Mims

DT- Jer'shan Newton, Leonard Taylor, Kris Jenkins, Dontay Corleone, Maason Smith

LB- Barrett Carter, Jeremiah Trotter JR

CB- Kool Aid McKinstry, Cooper DeJean, Kalen King,  Nate Wiggins, Josh Newton, Kamari Lessiter, Denzel Burke

S- Kamren Kinchens

list from 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2024-nfl-draft-board-big-board

[big_palooka]

2 hours ago, Geezy said:

Let’s see what McCarthy is about. 

No harbaugh, on the road, they decided to just oppose their will in the run game. So far, nothing exciting outside some nice designed runs for him