ronjon1990 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 hours ago, Styrian Raider said: Those things are always easier said than done. FWIW Mayock said he tried to both trade up for Bosa or Williams and down. Couldn't find a trade partner. All the more reason to go after someone as GM with a background of working on good drafts/trades. Mayock was routinely getting fleeced as far as trades go, and I believe it was do in large part to the fact teams knew he had no business being a GM. We can't say for certain what was offered and rejected by either party involved in amy attempted trade unless they come out with the details, but given what Mayock did in fact accomplish, it's not a stretch to say he was probably constantly over-estimating our pick's value. There's a definitive art to valuation of picks/players/positions. I don't think Mayock understood that well enough to execute trades. Explains a lot of the "wrf?" picks. When folks talk about guys like Gruden being stuck in the past, it's often more than just playcalling. FBs are basically all going to be UDFAs nowadays, MLBs are undervalued to the point of basically being day 3 guys, and picks 1-2 will net you a fortune while pick 5-6 are considered nearly untouchable until draft day- and very dependent on who is already off the board (basically if you have picks 5-6, you're praying for one of 5-6 players to fall and for someone to be desperate). I think Mayock and Gruden were behind that and probably still hold the philosophy of FBs being a normal part of the game (I wish they were, actually), MLBs being the stalwarts for a defense, and top 5 picks all being an absolute fortune in trade value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Styrian Raider Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said: All the more reason to go after someone as GM with a background of working on good drafts/trades. Mayock was routinely getting fleeced as far as trades go, and I believe it was do in large part to the fact teams knew he had no business being a GM. We can't say for certain what was offered and rejected by either party involved in amy attempted trade unless they come out with the details, but given what Mayock did in fact accomplish, it's not a stretch to say he was probably constantly over-estimating our pick's value. There's a definitive art to valuation of picks/players/positions. I don't think Mayock understood that well enough to execute trades. Explains a lot of the "wrf?" picks. When folks talk about guys like Gruden being stuck in the past, it's often more than just playcalling. FBs are basically all going to be UDFAs nowadays, MLBs are undervalued to the point of basically being day 3 guys, and picks 1-2 will net you a fortune while pick 5-6 are considered nearly untouchable until draft day- and very dependent on who is already off the board (basically if you have picks 5-6, you're praying for one of 5-6 players to fall and for someone to be desperate). I think Mayock and Gruden were behind that and probably still hold the philosophy of FBs being a normal part of the game (I wish they were, actually), MLBs being the stalwarts for a defense, and top 5 picks all being an absolute fortune in trade value. I don't know how to evaluate a good GM or not. And neither do I think it's easy. When you think about those teams, who are considered drafting good (Ravens, Niners, Seahawks, Philly), I always look at those rosters and think "Do they really have those glaring needs to fill?". And the answer is "no". They just can pick BPA or gamble on a guy with red flags, and if he doesn't pan out, who cares? The 49ers took a Kicker in the 3rd round - who would thought about that right before the draft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 On 11/13/2023 at 6:30 PM, Tank4Drake said: Yes, but when it comes to getting your QB’s, it just doesn’t matter. A true franchise QB is worth double digit first round picks. They are a cheat code. If you actually hit on your franchise QB it is definitely worth it. Landing a Mahomes/Allencan instantly elevate your franchise and make you competitive. But for every Mahomes/Allen there are also Darnold/Wilson/Lance/Gabbert etc. The hit rate on QBs isn't great at the top of the draft. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy408 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 18 minutes ago, NYRaider said: If you actually hit on your franchise QB it is definitely worth it. Landing a Mahomes/Allencan instantly elevate your franchise and make you competitive. But for every Mahomes/Allen there are also Darnold/Wilson/Lance/Gabbert etc. The hit rate on QBs isn't great at the top of the draft. It's also important to take into account that both teams that trade it up to get Mahomes and Alan we're either already a playoff team or picking in the later than the top 10. The teams that have the bus straight are usually teams that were already in the top 10 and then tried to trade up to get into either the top five or number one(trey Lance being the only exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 1 hour ago, Jeremy408 said: It's also important to take into account that both teams that trade it up to get Mahomes and Alan we're either already a playoff team or picking in the later than the top 10. The teams that have the bus straight are usually teams that were already in the top 10 and then tried to trade up to get into either the top five or number one(trey Lance being the only exception. Yes it's much easier for a QB to succeed if they land with a team that provides a stable situation and talent around them for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 Quinn Ewers is reportedly expected to return to Texas next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 7 hours ago, Styrian Raider said: I don't know how to evaluate a good GM or not. And neither do I think it's easy. When you think about those teams, who are considered drafting good (Ravens, Niners, Seahawks, Philly), I always look at those rosters and think "Do they really have those glaring needs to fill?". And the answer is "no". They just can pick BPA or gamble on a guy with red flags, and if he doesn't pan out, who cares? The 49ers took a Kicker in the 3rd round - who would thought about that right before the draft? The Ravens, Niners multiple times. Seahawks, amd Eagles multiple times have undergone entire rebuilds having massive holes to fill within the last decade or so. They got to where they could do things like taking kickers in the 3rd round with a glut of extra picks by having GMs and scouting departments (which I just know will get BP's goad because OBVIOUSLY the GM sits down with a self-made list of players and is the only voice in the room making the selection with absolutelyzero inkut from anyone else just like in Madden) that were incredibly good at their jobs, savvy with trades, and really good talent evaluators. Thise teams weren't born with extra picks nor did they just wake up as dominant franchises one day able to just stack BPA selections on an annual basis. John Schneider in Seattle spent years with teams that didn't get fleeced on trades and consistently made good picks. Seattle's run over the last decade has been pretty stellar as a result. Basically reshaped the Seahawks with Pete Carroll. John Lynch in San Francisco is a bit harder to gauge given he's basically just successful Mike Mayock. That said, the way SF has found gem after gem in mid rounds is impressive. Without those, it's doubtful he withstood the Trey Lance debacle. Total rebuild upon arrival. Eric DeCosta learned under Ozzie Newsome who was one of the best NFL executives of our lifetimes. Hard to remember very many bad Ravens drafts and they've been one of the winningest franchises of the last 20 or so years. Hard to recall many bad trades, either. Howie Roseman in Philadelphia is bonkers great at what he does. The Eagles don't get fleeced on trades, they draft exceptionally well, the don't get sentimental about players and will move on in a heartbeat (usually fleecing someone else in the process), and he amd his staff are basically wizards when it comes to talent evaluation. Pinpointing good GM candidates really isn't difficult. Do they draft well? Did they draft well when their role in a different capacity (regardless of what the ill-informed copiate addicts say)? Did they get fleeced by trades as GMs, DPP's, etc? Did the regimes they come from have a history of being on the wrong side of deals? Armed with the answers to those questions, you can do a pretty good job reviewing resumes. The hard ones are the Mayocks and Lynches who had absolutely no track record at all. I know bringing up track records is suuuuper taboo and a sensitive subject in these parts, but they're especially good looks into what/how guys learned about the NFL FO side of things. You don't see many guys getting poached from the lower ranks of bad franchises for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_palooka Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 19 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Quinn Ewers is reportedly expected to return to Texas next season. Makes sense. He's a top 10 pick or higher if he can stay healthy and put it together. A little surprised though with Manning behind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 2 hours ago, NYRaider said: If you actually hit on your franchise QB it is definitely worth it. Landing a Mahomes/Allencan instantly elevate your franchise and make you competitive. But for every Mahomes/Allen there are also Darnold/Wilson/Lance/Gabbert etc. The hit rate on QBs isn't great at the top of the draft. That's the trick. If you miss, you're stuck for a while, especially if you gave up picks to move up. By the time you get another shot, you're most likely in a full rebuild with a new GM and HC. Without the overall success and catching lightning with Purdy, Lance would have spelled doom for Lynch and possibly Shanahan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ronjon1990 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 3 minutes ago, big_palooka said: Makes sense. He's a top 10 pick or higher if he can stay healthy and put it together. A little surprised though with Manning behind him. Manning has never actually taken a snap, so there's absolutely zero reason for that to influence Ewers' decision. I mean, that's the logic applied to Directors of Scouting, Directors of Player Personnel, Assistant GMs, etc, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy408 Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 38 minutes ago, NYRaider said: Quinn Ewers is reportedly expected to return to Texas next season. Really? Even with the Manning there? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
big_palooka Posted November 15, 2023 Share Posted November 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, ronjon1990 said: Manning has never actually taken a snap, so there's absolutely zero reason for that to influence Ewers' decision. I mean, that's the logic applied to Directors of Scouting, Directors of Player Personnel, Assistant GMs, etc, right? You answered that question yet? UT doesn't want to lose Manning to the transfer portal. There will be plenty of teams that offer him a starting job. If Ewers decides to come back, they risk losing Manning. Meaning Ewers could face a decision to either declare for the draft or potentially enter the portal again himself unless Manning is content being on the sideline another year. This is common knowledge around Austin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jeremy408 Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 1 hour ago, ronjon1990 said: That's the trick. If you miss, you're stuck for a while, especially if you gave up picks to move up. By the time you get another shot, you're most likely in a full rebuild with a new GM and HC. Without the overall success and catching lightning with Purdy, Lance would have spelled doom for Lynch and possibly Shanahan. Right because you have to trade the house to move up in the draft especially if it's for an Uber talented quarterback(which are only going to be in the top two of most drafts) and then there's the possibility that you could trade up and still be wrong the majority of the time happens with two exceptions. And the two exceptions that we've seen were two teams that were already good before they got the Qb. This means you have to get lucky while building your team, the organic way that someone kind of just falls to you or you draft somebody later on, and they turn out to be better than where you drafted them. That's the best way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geezy Posted November 16, 2023 Share Posted November 16, 2023 2 hours ago, NYRaider said: Quinn Ewers is reportedly expected to return to Texas next season. Hmm, I don’t think Archie wants to sit for two years. Think the Mannings will go for that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Humble_Beast Posted November 16, 2023 Author Share Posted November 16, 2023 56 minutes ago, Geezy said: Hmm, I don’t think Archie wants to sit for two years. Think the Mannings will go for that? I heard Ewers might transfer if he goes back to college. I think he goes back to school to improve his stock. S Sanders already confirmed to go back to school I think Cam Ward goes back to school Riley Leonard will prolly go back to school too. Both Ward, and Leonard are a little raw. could be top 10 picks in 2025 Carson Beck probably goes back to college too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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