The 2024 Draft. Tonight's the night...

[vike daddy]

1 minute ago, Thaiphoon said:

Right. But remember, neither one of those teams need a QB right now. Washington does.

ahem... @swede700

[vike daddy]

Albert Breer:

"[The trade with Houston] tells you this is about a quarterback for the Vikings, and being aggressive, and they're comfortable with the top four guys, because they couldn't immediately get into the top three.”

“I think a scenario we could see happen is, if the Patriots decide they like Drake Maye and not Jayden Daniels, or the other way around, and the Commanders take the one that they like, and the one they don't like falls to them, then of course they would be open to moving the pick. And unless the Commanders decide to declare their intentions, you're not going to know until you're on the clock.”

SportsIllustrated.com

 

Edited March 22 by vike daddy

[vike daddy]

Tom Pelissero: "Alabama edge Dallas Turner — who could be the first defensive player off the board — told me he has upcoming pre-draft visits with, among others, the Bears (Nos. 1 and 9 overall picks), Falcons (8) and Vikings (11 and 23).

 

[vike daddy]

Alec Lewis, Vikings writer at The Athletic:

"The Vikings’ connection to Maye is well-known: QB coach Josh McCown coached him at Myers Park HS in Charlotte, N.C. But even before McCown, Vikings scouts had eyed Maye for several years."

[solidvikingfan]

Looking at all options at DT should we have two picks.... Also

 

Brian Flores at the pro day here.

 

 

 

[CWood21]

On 3/21/2024 at 10:49 PM, Thaiphoon said:

Would be hard to say no if I were either of those GMs.

Still think Minnesota is getting off rather light tbh.  I think 11, 23, and '25 FRP is the minimum to get into the door for a top 5 pick when you're going up to get a QB.  I don't think the Vikings are going to effectively swap #23 for #37 in a trade with the Chargers, so that trade-up effectively costs the Vikings the #11 pick, #72, and a future FRP to move up to #5 to get a QB.  That's not much of a premium there.  And the Arizona trade you're moving from #23 to the pair of 3rd round picks, and that's would make it effectively #11, #65, and a '25 FRP to move up to #4.  Arizona is going to need more IMO, since you're effectively offering the exact same package that is being proposed to Los Angeles in this scenario.

[BWG VIKE]

5 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Still think Minnesota is getting off rather light tbh.  I think 11, 23, and '25 FRP is the minimum to get into the door for a top 5 pick when you're going up to get a QB.  I don't think the Vikings are going to effectively swap #23 for #37 in a trade with the Chargers, so that trade-up effectively costs the Vikings the #11 pick, #72, and a future FRP to move up to #5 to get a QB.  That's not much of a premium there.  And the Arizona trade you're moving from #23 to the pair of 3rd round picks, and that's would make it effectively #11, #65, and a '25 FRP to move up to #4.  Arizona is going to need more IMO, since you're effectively offering the exact same package that is being proposed to Los Angeles in this scenario.

I think you underestimate the value of 2024 1st round picks. 

1.11 + 1.23 is more valuable then say

1.11 + 2025 1st rd

So the fact we are able to offer two 1st's in 2024 should factor into the QB premium price and be enough to put us over the top. I believe teams will value our package more then say the Broncos or Raiders which gives us more leverage then other teams.

 

[CWood21]

4 minutes ago, BWG VIKE said:

I think you underestimate the value of 2024 1st round picks. 

1.11 + 1.23 is more valuable then say

1.11 + 2025 1st rd

So the fact we are able to offer two 1st's in 2024 should factor into the QB premium price and be enough to put us over the top. I believe teams will value our package more then say the Broncos or Raiders which gives us more leverage then other teams.

Generally speaking, I'd agree.  But that's not always going to be the case.  If you think Minnesota is going to be really bad next year, that '25 FRP >>> #23.  Or if you think the board tiers break somewhere before #23, that #23 pick probably doesn't look a whole lot different than say an early SRP.  Let's say the Giants offer their FRP and SRP to the Cardinals to move up to #4, and Minnesota offers 11/23.  Using the traditional TVC:

Giants Offer:
#6 (1600 points)
#47 (430 points)
Total: 2030 points

Vikings Offer:
#11 (1250 points)
#23 (760 points)
Total: 2010 points

Right there alone, the Giants' package slightly outweighs what the Vikings are offering.  And given the Cardinals' needs, they'd be guaranteed one of Malik Nabers or Marvin Harrison Jr. at #6, and wouldn't require any additional trade assets to get them.  Where as if they move down to #11, they're almost assuredly going to miss out on their top 3 WR prospects (MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze) unless they move up.  And if they have to move up, they'll pretty much have to eat from their pick package that they receive from Minnesota.  Odds are there will be a tier break somewhere between 4 and 11, so the Vikings will likely need to overpay to get them to jump down the board.

[vike daddy]

Ben Goessling@BenGoessling

My understanding is, the Vikings will opt for private workouts with a lot of these QBs. Gives them more opportunities to structure workouts based on what they want to evaluate.

[BWG VIKE]

28 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Generally speaking but I'd agree.  But that's not always going to be the case.  If you think Minnesota is going to be really bad next year, that '25 FRP >>> #23.  Or if you think the board tiers break somewhere before #23, that #23 pick probably doesn't look a whole lot different than say an early SRP.  Let's say the Giants offer their FRP and SRP to the Cardinals to move up to #4, and Minnesota offers 11/23.  Using the traditional TVC:

Giants Offer:
#6 (1600 points)
#47 (430 points)
Total: 2030 points

Vikings Offer:
#11 (1250 points)
#23 (760 points)
Total: 2010 points

Right there alone, the Giants' package slightly outweighs what the Vikings are offering.  And given the Cardinals' needs, they'd be guaranteed one of Malik Nabers or Marvin Harrison Jr. at #6, and wouldn't require any additional trade assets to get them.  Where as if they move down to #11, they're almost assuredly going to miss out on their top 3 WR prospects (MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze) unless they move up.  And if they have to move up, they'll pretty much have to eat from their pick package that they receive from Minnesota.  Odds are there will be a tier break somewhere between 4 and 11, so the Vikings will likely need to overpay to get them to jump down the board.

Fair to say, I don't see the Giants as a QB threat. I believe their smoke screen is an effort to push 4 QBs ahead of them, essentially leaving them the BPA outside of QBs and Harrison.

With the QBs and WRs hogging up the top 10 picks, it leaves pick 1.11 in a prime position for a top OT or possibly the first defensive player to come off the board so it may very well be the top of both teirs. With the depth at WR the Cardinals could add a blue chip at 1.11 and follow it up with say a Brian Thomas Jr at 1.23.

Either way I think you undervalue the Vikings draft capital in the first round. That may be sumblimally through fear of what might come should the Vikings strike on future star at QB.

Edited March 23 by BWG VIKE

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, BWG VIKE said:

Fair to say, I don't see the Giants as a QB threat. I believe their smoke screen is an effort to push 4 QBs ahead of them, essentially leaving them the BPA outside of QBs and Harrison.

The Giants are a bigger threat than I think you care to admit.  They made Daniel Jones a top 10 QB money in terms of AAV, and they've got one good season out of him.  And he's never played an entire season since he entered the league.  They've got 2 major needs (QB and WR).  I think they're absolutely in the market for a QB, and if they miss out on one the top ones they'll pivot to WR.

3 minutes ago, BWG VIKE said:

With the QBs and WRs hogging up the top 10 picks, it leaves pick 1.11 in a prime position for a top OT or possibly the first defensive player to come off the board so it may very well be the top of both teirs. With the depth at WR the Cardinals could add a blue chip at 1.11 and follow it up with say a Brian Thomas Jr at 1.23.

I mentioned this in another thread, but offense is going to be a theme of the top 10.  I think we're going to see 1-2 defensive players taken in the draft in the top 10, but the rest is going to be offensive players.  Just going down the draft order assuming Minnesota is trading up to #4.

1.) Chicago - QB Caleb Williams
2.) Washington - QB Jayden Daniels
3.) New England - QB JJ McCarthy
4.) Minnesota - QB Drake Maye
5.) LA Chargers - WR Marvin Harrison Jr./OT Joe Alt
6.) NY Giants - WR Malik Nabers/WR Rome Odunze
7.) Tennessee - OT Olu Fashanu/OT Joe Alt/WR Malik Nabers/WR Rome Odunze
8.) Atlanta - DEFENSIVE PLAYER
9.) Chicago - DEFENSIVE PLAYER
10.) NY Jets - OT Olu Fashanu/OT Joe Alt/WR Rome Odunze

At that point, Arizona likely misses out on one of the top WRs which is by far their biggest need unless the Jets go for an OT at 10.  Sure, Arizona could pivot to a defensive player but they're moving off a blue chip prospect for a non-blue chip prospect for a late FRP.  And we're assuming that the WRs don't start going off the board earlier than anticipated like they have in recent years.  I think there's a good chance that Brian Thomas ends up being a top 20 pick.

11 minutes ago, BWG VIKE said:

Either way I think you undervalue the Vikings draft capital in the first round. That may be sumblimally through fear of what might come should the Vikings strike on future star at QB.

Not really, no.  Although, I have more faith in KOC developing a QB than I did of Nagy developing Fields.  I see a good, but not great draft int terms of depth and I see a team who has a blue chip prospect that they'll be staring down, and don't think that a late FRP in a good, but not great draft is going to be something that will get the Cardinals to pass on their next Larry Fitzgerald.

[Ozzy]

23 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

 

1.) Chicago - QB Caleb Williams
2.) Washington - QB Jayden Daniels
3.) New England - QB JJ McCarthy
4.) Minnesota - QB Drake Maye
5.) LA Chargers - WR Marvin Harrison Jr./OT Joe Alt
6.) NY Giants - WR Malik Nabers/WR Rome Odunze
7.) Tennessee - OT Olu Fashanu/OT Joe Alt/WR Malik Nabers/WR Rome Odunze
8.) Atlanta - DEFENSIVE PLAYER
9.) Chicago - DEFENSIVE PLAYER
10.) NY Jets - OT Olu Fashanu/OT Joe Alt/WR Rome Odunze

 

That would be great but still honestly not sure McCarthy or Drake Maye are worth trading away that much to go get for Minnesota.  

 

And why New England would take McCarthy when really they should be the one trading down or just get Joe Alt and answer the biggest question on the roster right now.  With Brown leaving they basically have no legit RT or LT at all on the roster, so does it even matter if they get a rookie QB, they will get killed next year.  Or they just sit the rookie and massacre Brissett or Bailey.

 

Turner goes to Atlanta almost no question, and Chicago gets Verse but could get Rome and tear it up.  

 

 

I do not know who this guy is, never followed him before but saw this when looking for JJ McCarthy Pro day footage and it is interesting and I agree with everything he is saying about McCarthy is not worth a top 10 or even top 5 selection.  And the box scores say it but this is actual footage that yes he misses WRs in games as well just like he did at the combine passing drills.  The dude is just not a natural passer at all and struggles with that part of the game clearly.  Sure one can blame the WRs on Michigan or something but the dude played with talent across the board the last two years and sure their WRs are not 1st rounders but he had talent all around him and benefited greatly in terms of wins because of it.  If he goes top three in the draft that is insane to me for a guy that struggled like he did and played in so many absolute blow out games with almost zero pressure on him in terms of the game, 20 games over the past two years for him were what 40-10 blowouts....

 

[vike daddy]

17 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

still honestly not sure McCarthy or Drake Maye are worth trading away that much to go get for Minnesota.  

really? gosh, i've never seen you say that before. shocking.

[vike daddy]

It's pretty clear that Minnesota's former general manager Rick Spielman thinks highly of McCarthy and his potential to be a good quarterback in the NFL. But based on Spielman's past failures when drafting a quarterback for the Vikings, the former Michigan signal-caller might be someone Minnesota should actually stay away from.

Now, the current Vikings regime isn't going to account for Spielman's thoughts about McCarthy during their evaluation of the young quarterback prospect. And if anything, multiple reports from this offseason have indicated that Minnesota's current leadership agrees with the team's former general manager when it comes to McCarthy.

 

Spielman: "We've been through it 100 times. [People say] 'Well, he doesn't make all the throws you want to see, or he doesn't throw the ball 50 times a game.' But he knows how to win games, and he's been through the limelight. He's won a national championship. And I thought he handled every question coming his way at the Combine very polished."

"If I was in his team's locker room and he was my quarterback, I would gravitate to him from his leadership standpoint. I'd wanna go play for this kid."

https://thevikingage.com/posts/former-minnesota-vikings-gm-admiration-jj-mccarthy-should-concern?fbclid=IwAR2z0bfcrtKVKlcCngFXwl4wif_Rk01LRIXQQXBKc2VS75d77rlOsHviByU

[vikesfan89]

How many QBs did Spielman really wiff on? Ponder was that triangle of authority year during a lockout and they reached on Ponder. Isn't Bridgewater the only other one he drafted high? He was trending good before he almost lost his leg and I'd say that was a solid move getting him at 32. Mond didn't work out but that was just a flyer on a3rd round pick. Isn't that also when Klint Kubiac was the first time OC?