Controversial 2nd Grade Test Question

[MKnight82]

So this is blowing up online in my area.  Teachers and Parents are like exploding over this.  The background is this was a test question on a 2nd grade class exam and the parents are complaining about how terrible of a test question it is and comparing it as the state of things in the education system.  Here's the question: 

Autumn has a bag of blue tiles and yellow tiles. The tally chart shows the colors of the tiles Autumn has pulled so far. Is it more likely that the next tile Autumn pulls will be blue or yellow? 

Tiles pulled so far: Blue (4), Yellow (8)

According to the teacher the "correct" answer is Yellow.  The student answered Blue and the parents got mad that it was incorrect and this whole thing has blown up now. 

I have my thoughts but I'll reserve them for later.  What do you guys think? 

[ramssuperbowl99]

 

2 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

Autumn has a bag of blue tiles and yellow tiles. The tally chart shows the colors of the tiles Autumn has pulled so far. Is it more likely that the next tile Autumn pulls will be blue or yellow? 

Tiles pulled so far: Blue (4), Yellow (8)

Without the total number of tiles, or some information to calculate the ratio of tiles in the bag, there's insufficient information to answer the question.

Is that exactly how it was written? Because as so, the underlying implication of the question - that the tiles already picked have an impact on the next tile selection beyond changing the ratio of remaining tiles - is effectively the gambler's fallacy. Which is a pretty stupid thing to teach a 2nd grader.

 

As someone who needs only a very small push to get on his "I hate gambling" soapbox, yeah I could see parents losing it over this.

[MKnight82]

1 minute ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

 

Without the total number of tiles, or some information to calculate the ratio of tiles in the bag, there's insufficient information to answer the question.

Is that exactly how it was written? Because as so, the underlying implication of the question - that the tiles already picked have an impact on the next tile selection beyond changing the ratio of remaining tiles - is effectively the gambler's fallacy. Which is a pretty stupid thing to teach a 2nd grader.

 

As someone who needs only a very small push to get on his "I hate gambling" soapbox, yeah I could see parents losing it over this.

I posted it exactly how the question was written.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

I posted it exactly how the question was written.

Stupid question, stupid teacher to defend it. If the teacher's been a PITA all year, yeah take it to the mat.

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Without the total number of tiles, or some information to calculate the ratio of tiles in the bag, there's insufficient information to answer the question.

Correct

There's not enough information. Is this a proportion or a coin toss? Because if there was an even number of blue and yellow tiles, then the 2nd grader is correct, whereas if you'd been told ahead of time that it was a proportion or even a pattern, that could factor into it.

Also, I assume that the real villain here is the University of Michigan with their repugnant blue and yellow colors.

Source: Unverified

[MWil23]

4 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

6 minutes ago, MKnight82 said:

I posted it exactly how the question was written.

Stupid question, stupid teacher to defend it. If the teacher's been a PITA all year, yeah take it to the mat.

Speaking from experience, a simple "Sorry, I realize that I worded the question poorly", punting, and moving on is usually the way to go here, unless you love pointless meetings and conflict, especially the week before school is over.

Edited May 18, 2023 by MWil23

[MWil23]

@ramssuperbowl99 I thought you'd enjoy this:

https://www.gocomics.com/foxtrot/1999/02/14

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, MWil23 said:

@ramssuperbowl99 I thought you'd enjoy this:

https://www.gocomics.com/foxtrot/1999/02/14

 

D-, didn't document that no friction needed to be assumed.

[Tetsujin]

There's a difference between "probability" and "likelihood". The former being mathematical odds and the latter based on what has happened in the past.

Not sure why this is in 2nd Grade unless it's some advanced/gifted program.

[ramssuperbowl99]

37 minutes ago, Tetsujin said:

There's a difference between "probability" and "likelihood". The former being mathematical odds and the latter based on what has happened in the past.

Even if the goal of the unit was to help the students know the difference between likelihood and probability (which, meh), the specific wording of the question:

Quote

Is it more likely that the next tile

is even worse.

If the question is about likelihood, there is no "next tile". So the only way that "likely" can be read in that sentence is as the colloquial synonym for probability.

Edited May 18, 2023 by ramssuperbowl99

[MWil23]

6 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

If the question is about likelihood, there is no "next tile"

This gives off a very "The Oracle" from The Matrix vibe, and that's how I read it, in that tone of voice.

[MKnight82]

So like I said this has blown up online with 3 strong camps.  The first being, oh well the teacher was just trying to state a simple relationship here and the answer should be Yellow.  Then you have the people who are saying, well if you started off with even amounts then there should be more Blue left in the bag so the answer should be Blue. Then you have people saying, well wait a minute we haven't been provided any other information, and you have a problem with only two outcomes.  With no other information the likelyhood of two outcomes happening is 50/50, so the answer should be equal Blue and Yellow. 

The weird thing and why this has spiraled into such a big thing online is somehow people have turned this terrible 2nd graders question into a political issue. I won't get into that here but its pretty silly the world we live in now.

My own personal opinion is that this was just a terribly written question that can be interpreted in so many ways. 

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

So like I said this has blown up online with 3 strong camps.  The first being, oh well the teacher was just trying to state a simple relationship here and the answer should be Yellow.  Then you have the people who are saying, well if you started off with even amounts then there should be more Blue left in the bag so the answer should be Blue. Then you have people saying, well wait a minute we haven't been provided any other information, and you have a problem with only two outcomes.  With no other information the likelyhood of two outcomes happening is 50/50, so the answer should be equal Blue and Yellow. 

Bahahaha of course there are 3 camps and they're all wrong.

[Dome]

Put a mousetrap inside the bag to spice things up. 

[MikeT14]

I saw this on the news here too. My immediate thought was not enough information is given with the question.