2018 Free Agency targets

[ColGerBear]

When people talk someone up or down based on stats I always have to think about the beautiful piece Mathey Berry wrote for his 100 facts in fantasy football some years back

Quote

"QB1" was a fantasy stud last year. He finished as a top-10 quarterback and had more 30-point games than any quarterback not named Peyton or Drew. In fact, according to Tristan H. Cockcroft's 2013 consistency rankings, those two quarterbacks (Peyton Manning and Drew Brees) were the only two who had more "stud" games than this guy. ("Stud" being defined as a QB who was top-two at his position for the week). His attempts, completions, touchdowns, yards, QB rating and QBR have improved every year he's been in the league. He has one of the most talented receiving corps around, including the leading wide receiver in end zone catch percentage (among qualified wideouts). Top 10 in the NFL in pass attempts last year, he's the leader of a high-octane offense that was sixth in the league in total points. And he has started every game of his career, so it's easy to see why this 4,000-yard passer was a high draft pick. He's coming off his best professional year ever, and considering he's still fairly young, the best is yet to come. Draft him high, and ride the wave.

 

On the other hand, "QB2" is being drafted well outside the top 10 this year, and it's no shock why. Per Tristan's same consistency rankings, Geno Smith, Eli Manning and Chad Henne were the only quarterbacks who were "stiffs" more often last season. ("Stiff" being defined as someone who ranked among the worst at his position, thus making almost any waiver wire option a better choice.) His interceptions have increased every year he has been in the league, his completion percentage decreased from the previous season, and his QBR was just four tenths of a point better than Ryan Fitzpatrick's. I repeat: Ryan Fitzpatrick. It's not just fantasy owners who have questions about this quarterback. His own team hasn't signed him to an extension yet, and in fact, he will be a free agent after this season. Considering how QB-starved the NFL is, it speaks volumes that his team is willing to let him walk. With the fifth most interceptions in the NFL last year, it's not surprising his team just hired a new offensive coordinator known for running the ball; in his latest job as a playcaller, this coach was top four in the NFL in rush attempts and rush yards. Hand the ball off and don't lose this for us, they seem to be saying. Something you don't want them to say about your quarterback as a fantasy owner. Look elsewhere.

Now, everything I wrote about for each player is 100 percent true. So tell me ... which QB do you want?

Before you answer, you should know that both quarterbacks are Andy Dalton.

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/nfldk2k14_TMR100facts/matthew-berry-fantasy-football-100-facts-2014-preseason

 

I think it was AZ who posted the video about Terelle Pryors skills and best useage in a system and I think he'd be a very nice addition. He has the ability to box out cornerbacks with his body on intermediate or short passes and the speed to take it to the house.

He'll be 29 when the season starts so maybe he'd be happy with a longer cheaper contract, maybe with some security (would he really bet on himself again to get a big contract when he gets 30 years old?)

Something like 3 years, 22 million, 14 million guarantees. 14 million would more than double his total career earnings.

First year fully guaranteed, 2nd year partially guaranteed with reception/TD bonus, 3rd year unguaranteed with bonuses.

[AZBearsFan]

32 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

He has next to no athletic ability. Honest to god his athletic tests are like an OLmen.

For further context, here are Landry’s numbers from the pre-draft process: 

And now here are those of Trubisky:

[pigsooie5]

4 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

For further context, here are Landry’s numbers from the pre-draft process: 

And now here are those of Trubisky:

Take it for what it's worth....

Right hamstring injury for Jarvis Landry. That means throw out his first 40 time for most teams. Some will keep it and be cynical of injury

— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) February 23, 2014

[WindyCity]

3 hours ago, pigsooie5 said:

Take it for what it's worth....

 

 

Ran it again at his Pro Day and was still 4.61.

28.5” vertical.

His vertical, broad, cone and shuttle would get laughed out of the Chiefs WR room.

All of those numbers are bad. I would also not want Trubisky playing WR for me.

[pigsooie5]

26 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Ran it again at his Pro Day and was still 4.61.

28.5” vertical.

His vertical, broad, cone and shuttle would get laughed out of the Chiefs WR room.

All of those numbers are bad. I would also not want Trubisky playing WR for me.

Here comes the typically Windy over exaggeration. No sense in continuing this conversation if you truly believe Mitch Trubisky would be a better NFL WR than Jarvis Landry. 

[Superman(DH23)]

2 minutes ago, pigsooie5 said:

Here comes the typically Windy over exaggeration. No sense in continuing this conversation if you truly believe Mitch Trubisky would be a better NFL WR than Jarvis Landry. 

Thats not what hes saying at all.  Trubisky is a very athletic qb, if he was playing wr he would be pedestrian.  Landry is a good slot possession receiver.  Paying him #1 money doesnt fit the talent or role.

[WindyCity]

1 minute ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Thats not what hes saying at all.  Trubisky is a very athletic qb, if he was playing wr he would be pedestrian.  Landry is a good slot possession receiver.  Paying him #1 money doesnt fit the talent or role.

Thank you for reading what I wrote.

-Pedestrian Athlete

-8.8 yards per catch

-tons of fumbles

-off field concerns

-wants #1 WR money

 

I get that we are desperate, but that is a lot of negative to ignore.

[WindyCity]

9 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

For further context, here are Landry’s numbers from the pre-draft process: 

And now here are those of Trubisky:

Tyreek Hill [5th]

5'8"
185lbs.
40: 4.29
Vert: 40.5"
Broad: 10'9"
3 cone: 6.53
Shuttle: 4.06

Chris Conley [3rd]

6'2"
213lbs
40: 4.35
Vert: 45"
Broad: 11'7"
3 cone: 7.06
Shuttle: 4.30

Albert Wilson [UDFA]

5'9"
203lbs.
40: 4.43
Vert: 37.5"
Broad: 10'3"
3 cone: 7.0
Shuttle: 4.20

Jehu Chesson [4th]

6'3"
204lbs

40: 4.47
Vert: 35.5"
Broad: 11'
3 cone: 6.07
Shuttle: 4.09

Demarcus Robinson [4th]

6'1" 
203lbs.

40: 4.58
Vert: 34.5"
Broad: 10'3"
3 cone: 6.77
Shuttle: 4.19

 

[WindyCity]

9 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

For further context, here are Landry’s numbers from the pre-draft process: 

And now here are those of Trubisky:

Terron Armstead 

6’5” 

306lbs

4.71 (40)

34.5” vert

9’4” broad

7.62 3 cone

4.72 shuttle

Landry has similar testing numbers to a really athletic 306lbs OT.

The system they run in KC clearly value explosive athletes.

[AZBearsFan]

56 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Terron Armstead 

6’5” 

306lbs

4.71 (40)

34.5” vert

9’4” broad

7.62 3 cone

4.72 shuttle

Landry has similar testing numbers to a really athletic 306lbs OT.

The system they run in KC clearly value explosive athletes.

Even if his test numbers all added up the other factors would still give me pause, especially the fumbles. 14 fumbles is a TON. Those are game changing negative plays on average 3-4 games a year. 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

4 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Ran it again at his Pro Day and was still 4.61.

28.5” vertical.

His vertical, broad, cone and shuttle would get laughed out of the Chiefs WR room.

All of those numbers are bad. I would also not want Trubisky playing WR for me.

Hang on guys... out of the box idea here:  How about... Trubisky plays WR, Tanner Gentry plays QB, and Whitehair is the entire line?

[WindyCity]

I really think we need to patch the WR unit with veterans that might have a little upside with more of a role.

Albert Wilson and Brice Butler.

Then we try and draft a difference maker in round 2 at WR. Washington, Miller, Moore and hope they can start sooner rather than later.

[AZBearsFan]

13 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I really think we need to patch the WR unit with veterans that might have a little upside with more of a role.

Albert Wilson and Brice Butler.

Then we try and draft a difference maker in round 2 at WR. Washington, Miller, Moore and hope they can start sooner rather than later.

If Albert Wilson is our top FA add and we don’t take a WR in the first round people are gonna riot. I think you’d have a difficult time convincing anyone that those guys are appreciably better than Wright and Inman placed in a more modern scheme. Even in what I expect to be a reasonably  limited and cost-inflated market we have to aim higher than that IMO. Wilson is a fringe starter at best, and Butler is a one-trick pony. 

[WindyCity]

14 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

If Albert Wilson is our top FA add and we don’t take a WR in the first round people are gonna riot. I think you’d have a difficult time convincing anyone that those guys are appreciably better than Wright and Inman placed in a more modern scheme. Even in what I expect to be a reasonably  limited and cost-inflated market we have to aim higher than that IMO. Wilson is a fringe starter at best, and Butler is a one-trick pony. 

I think the actual improvement will come from Meredith and the 2nd round pick.

Butler would just ensure that we are not signing dudes off the street.

[AZBearsFan]

18 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I think the actual improvement will come from Meredith and the 2nd round pick.

Butler would just ensure that we are not signing dudes off the street.

Fair enough. I’m all for not signing street guys. Ideally though the guy filling that role is Wilson, not the other guy. Let’s be honest with ourselves - if Wilson didn’t play under Nagy last year he’s a “sure why not” level FA option. We can’t overvalue the familiarity. Nagy isn’t coming in introducing an offense veteran players haven’t seen. It’s largely west coast with spread concepts. Every NFL or top tier college player has at least some familiarity with those concepts.