turtle28 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, MKnight82 said: The #1 overall pick always get a premium return. You have to throw out the outdated trade chart and look at actual trade comparables to gauge what compensation would be required. The Panthers gave up a huge haul for #1 last year. I’m with @lavar703 I don’t think there’s a far gap between Caleb & Drake Maye. Some scouts/GMs might have Drake Maye even above Caleb bc Maye plays more from within the pocket/more on schedule & freelances less so, I’m not trading more than I have to in order to get Caleb. I’d just hold onto next years 1st - which will probably be another top 10 pick, maybe another top 5 pick - Jon Allen & our other picks and taking Drake Maye at #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, MKnight82 said: That's why I included Jon Allen, to try to get around including a future first. Jon Allen isn't worth a 1st round pick. We would maybe get a couple 3rds for him. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, lavar703 said: The Panthers moved up from 9 to 1. We're moving up one spot. One. You cannot give up a haul to move one spot. If Drake Maye wasn't in this draft then I'd be fine giving up our 2nd but not anything beyond that. We just watched the Panthers move up to one and the Texans stayed still and got the best QB in the draft at 2. I posted comparables where teams only moved up 1 spot in the top 5 and it took multiple assets to do so. And none of those were for #1 overall or for a top end QB prospect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, Slappy Mc said: Jon Allen isn't worth a 1st round pick. We would maybe get a couple 3rds for him. Just my opinion. I'm not saying Jon Allen is worth a first round pick, I think that the package I listed in total avoids including a future first round pick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: They also traded up from #9. The trade was long before the draft too. It was clearly an overpay to get whoever they wanted, but like you said you have to pay if you want the ability to choose. I would prefer to be sellers in those scenarios, but I understand we don't have the luxury to be sellers when we don't have our QBotF. Ya but its supply and demand. The Bears are going to have calls from NE (3), Giants (6) and Falcons (8) all looking to move up to 1 for Williams. We don't get to pay a significant discount just because we are at 2. If we wanted to move up we have to make it worth it to the Bears to ignore all of those other offers too. Btw I'm not arguing for moving up I'm merely interested in what it would cost to do so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Slappy Mc said: They also traded up from #9. The trade was long before the draft too. It was clearly an overpay to get whoever they wanted, but like you said you have to pay if you want the ability to choose. I would prefer to be sellers in those scenarios, but I understand we don't have the luxury to be sellers when we don't have our QBotF. Yeah, I don’t want to be sellers bc that’s basically the same as we did in 2020 when we passed on taking Tua or Herbert bc we had Haskins in house & Chase was supposed to be a better prospect. We don’t have a franchise QB and we need to keep swinging for one until we get one. We’re in the perfect spot to get one having the #2 pick right now. We shouldn’t make the 2020 mistake again. Tua or Herbert throwing to our playmakers the last few years would’ve been fun IMO even if our OL was just below average. It’s not that Sam can’t be there, it’s just that Tua & Herbert are head of him. They process things faster and get the ball out quicker to our playmakers than what Sam did this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 54 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: So question just for general curiosity, how many of you would be upset/happy in these scenarios? Scenario 1: Caleb Williams goes #1. Commanders select: Joe Alt/Olu Fashanu. Scenario 2: Caleb Williams goes #1. Commanders select: Marvin Harrison Jr. Scenario 3: Caleb Williams goes #1. Commanders select: Dallas Turner/Laiatu Latu. Scenario 4: Marvin Harrison Jr goes #1. Commanders trade #2 to a team in top 10 for a very good haul. Team that receives #2 selects Caleb Williams. Scenario 5: Joe Alt/Olu Fashanu goes #1. Commanders select: Jayden Daniels. Scenario 6: Commanders trade up for #1 pick, giving up their 2nd (41 ovr) and 2025 1st. Commanders select: Caleb Williams. Scenario 7: Jayden Daniels goes #1. Commanders select: Caleb Williams. I could give a few more scenarios but essentially what I am after, is what is your dream draft scenario and your nightmare draft scenario? For data purposes I'm going to give my answers as well. Scenario 1: I wouldn't mind this. Honestly I know lots would be upset, but an elite LT is really hard to come by. 7/10 Scenario 2: I know the guy looks to be a stud, but I cannot fathom drafting a WR at #2. 3/10 Scenario 3: Going from drafting Chase Young at 2 to either of these guys would be pretty close to worst case scenario IMO. I think Chase was a better prospect than both of these guys. -1/10 Scenario 4: This is my ideal scenario to build this team for the future. I don't think we are a QB away from anything. Depending on where we end up in the top 10 we can select a variety of players that would contribute right away. 10/10 Scenario 5: This would be a bad outcome, but if the FO falls in love with any of the QBs I would support them the same way I did with Emmanuel Forbes. I would ***** and moan at the time and be critical everytime they messed up. 5/10 Scenario 6: The player wouldn't bother me. The cost would absolutely enrage me. I actually pulled that trade from a mock draft from an analyst. I just think trading up shouldn't be on the table. 4/10 Scenario 7: The idea of getting everyone's top target without mortgaging the future is pretty ideal. Although this is unlikely, Jayden Daniels could blow the roof off the combine and become the Anthony Richardson of this draft. 7/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 9 minutes ago, MKnight82 said: Ya but its supply and demand. The Bears are going to have calls from NE (3), Giants (6) and Falcons (8) all looking to move up to 1 for Williams. We don't get to pay a significant discount just because we are at 2. If we wanted to move up we have to make it worth it to the Bears to ignore all of those other offers too. Btw I'm not arguing for moving up I'm merely interested in what it would cost to do so. I hope that Josh Harris and Co are smart enough to not play into a bidding war for the pick. Let someone else pay the premium and pick from what's left. I also know that you aren't advocating for a trade up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 11 minutes ago, turtle28 said: Tua or Herbert throwing to our playmakers the last few years would’ve been fun IMO even if our OL was just below average. It’s not that Sam can’t be there, it’s just that Tua & Herbert are head of him. They process things faster and get the ball out quicker to our playmakers than what Sam did this year. Tua or Justin wouldn't have faired any better than Sam did behind our terrible offensive line. I also wouldn't have trusted our staff to develop any QB. Hopefull for the next group to be better in that aspect. 14 minutes ago, turtle28 said: Yeah, I don’t want to be sellers bc that’s basically the same as we did in 2020 when we passed on taking Tua or Herbert bc we had Haskins in house & Chase was supposed to be a better prospect. We don’t have a franchise QB and we need to keep swinging for one until we get one. We’re in the perfect spot to get one having the #2 pick right now. We shouldn’t make the 2020 mistake again. Let's say we trade with Minnesota, who holds the #11 pick. Assume we get around what Chicago got for #1 from Carolina. Obviously we aren't getting DJ Moore, but could #11, #42, 2025 1st, 2025 2nd (maybe slightly more) be enticing? For me the answer is yes. With that, you could take Mims/Latham/Fuaga or Verse/Robinson, or Coleman/Odunze/Nabers or Bowers if any of them fell. Heck you could take McCarthy or Penix. Each would be instant contributors. Then in the 2nd you would have 3 picks in top 10 of the round to get any top talent that may fall or get solid contributors. I think our future would be the brightest in a scenario like this, but it is easily the riskiest scenario by not taking the top tier talent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, Slappy Mc said: Tua or Justin wouldn't have faired any better than Sam did behind our terrible offensive line. I also wouldn't have trusted our staff to develop any QB. Hopefull for the next group to be better in that aspect. Let's say we trade with Minnesota, who holds the #11 pick. Assume we get around what Chicago got for #1 from Carolina. Obviously we aren't getting DJ Moore, but could #11, #42, 2025 1st, 2025 2nd (maybe slightly more) be enticing? For me the answer is yes. With that, you could take Mims/Latham/Fuaga or Verse/Robinson, or Coleman/Odunze/Nabers or Bowers if any of them fell. Heck you could take McCarthy or Penix. Each would be instant contributors. Then in the 2nd you would have 3 picks in top 10 of the round to get any top talent that may fall or get solid contributors. I think our future would be the brightest in a scenario like this, but it is easily the riskiest scenario by not taking the top tier talent. If you tried to sell me on this whole scenario and I ended up with McCarthy as my QBotF I would start a Civil War. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) 12 minutes ago, MikeT14 said: If you tried to sell me on this whole scenario and I ended up with McCarthy as my QBotF I would start a Civil War. We rushing Ashburn if that happens! 😂 Edited January 8 by turtle28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lavar703 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 41 minutes ago, MKnight82 said: I posted comparables where teams only moved up 1 spot in the top 5 and it took multiple assets to do so. And none of those were for #1 overall or for a top end QB prospect. I understand that but TO ME, it doesn't change the value of the pick. And in my opinion when you start operating with the idea of "I have to have this pick, value be damned" is when you get taken to the cleaners. Not only did the Panthers throw in picks but they gave up DJ Moore too. That was an insanely stupid overpay. I don't want anything to do with a situation like that. Take Maye and build around him and if he fails you've built up the rest of the roster and you just take another one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MKnight82 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: Tua or Justin wouldn't have faired any better than Sam did behind our terrible offensive line. I also wouldn't have trusted our staff to develop any QB. Hopefull for the next group to be better in that aspect. Let's say we trade with Minnesota, who holds the #11 pick. Assume we get around what Chicago got for #1 from Carolina. Obviously we aren't getting DJ Moore, but could #11, #42, 2025 1st, 2025 2nd (maybe slightly more) be enticing? For me the answer is yes. With that, you could take Mims/Latham/Fuaga or Verse/Robinson, or Coleman/Odunze/Nabers or Bowers if any of them fell. Heck you could take McCarthy or Penix. Each would be instant contributors. Then in the 2nd you would have 3 picks in top 10 of the round to get any top talent that may fall or get solid contributors. I think our future would be the brightest in a scenario like this, but it is easily the riskiest scenario by not taking the top tier talent. I'm not totally against the lets get a pile of draft picks haul strategy you're proposing but my biggest disconnect with some of the stuff you've posted is your idea that LT is a franchise cornerstone we should build around (you've posted this in other posts not specifically this one). I'm not sure that LT is a premium position. What I mean by this is, there isn't a lot that a LT can do to win you a football game. A bad LT can definitely lose you a football game, but even the best LT in the sport doesn't actually score you any points. So realistically, you just need your offense line to be good enough to not lose you the game. This should be able to be accomplished with 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks. Top 10 picks need to be spent on players who can take over a game and win it for you themselves. QBs and WRs are the most obvious position group for this definition, but high end DEs could be made an argument for as well. If I was the GM of a team and I wasn't selecting a QB or WR in the top 10 I would just trade down every time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slappy Mc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, MikeT14 said: If you tried to sell me on this whole scenario and I ended up with McCarthy as my QBotF I would start a Civil War. If I'm being completely honest, I included that for those who are saying drafting a QB is a must. I have already stated that I am not sold on any of these QBs being "the guy." In a perfect world, with the described scenario, you take Bowers if available (really think he will be a star). If not available I would go OT. Then in the 2nd you could select a MLB, G, OT (if not selected in Rnd 1) and/or DE. Something like this: #11 - Brock Bowers #36 - Troy Fautanu #40 - Edgerrin Cooper #42 - Tyler Guyton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtle28 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, Slappy Mc said: Tua or Justin wouldn't have faired any better than Sam did behind our terrible offensive line. I also wouldn't have trusted our staff to develop any QB. Hopefull for the next group to be better in that aspect. I disagree, they process faster. Sam as 1st year QB wasn’t processing fast enough to get the ball out most of the time. All of the pressures and sacks weren’t all on the OL, we know this. I think a lot of times a QB like Tua or Herbert would’ve made a decision and had the ball out before the pressure got there where Howell was taking longer to get off his first read and then was pressured or took a sack. It wouldn’t have been a huge difference, but it would’ve been a difference if we had a QB who processed faster than Sam did this year. I think Sam will continue to develop in that area and improve and I’m not closing the door on him starting week 1 next season if the rookie we draft isn’t ready to start week 1 & if he’s developed more in his processing and decision making then maybe Sam Eben holds onto his job all year but we’ll have to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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