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The MVP race


Steelersfan43

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Just now, Malfatron said:

Im good with dak being the 1 now, but we all know whats gonna happen

I mean, really this is the right take. 

I know I'm Stan-ing hard for Dak and Purdy right now, but the reality is that the next few games are really going to determine everything.

And as much as I'm burying him, if Jalen keeps running the table in the NFC it's going to be hard to deny wins over SF and DAL x2, especially if he plays well, considering the gap in records will be even more drastic.

 

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19 minutes ago, Soggust said:

I'm not sure I like a guy playing worse against better competition. I think I'd rather have the guy playing better against worse competition tbh.

Like, Jalen has 8 out of 11 rushing TDs from 1 yard or less.

He also has the best oline in football, elite weapons, a top 5 run game and a good HC, while not having the stats of other contenders. 

All of his arguments revolve around his team winning, whether it be record or H2H. He didn't even necessarily outplay Dak, he just happened to be on the winning team.  

Saying Hurts “happened” to play on the winning team is sort of a major disservice to him, isn’t it? Like it just happened to fall that way, and he effortlessly benefitted from it?

Wins have always been relevant in the MVP discussion. The competition aspect, will be a part of this, one way or the other too. Yo can’t just discount one guy having an easier path (thus far). No one is going to discount the H2Hs, either. If this were most outstanding QB, than it’d change the argument, but it’s MVP. That’s why OPOY hardly ever goes to “Player X on the winningest team”, it’s usually “Player Y with the best stats”. 

Dak doesn’t have a narrative argument. Hurts does. Hurts doesn’t have a stats argument. Dak does. 

Dak’s narrative will either swing way better or way worse, depending on how the season plays out. Hurts’ stat argument can get better, get worse, or stay the same. But as of now - they have separate cases. Usually the stat guy also has the wins and the top seeding (or close to it), but it’s not shaking out that way right now.

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2 minutes ago, Soko said:

Saying Hurts “happened” to play on the winning team is sort of a major disservice to him, isn’t it? Like it just happened to fall that way, and he effortlessly benefitted from it?

Wins have always been relevant in the MVP discussion. The competition aspect, will be a part of this, one way or the other too. Yo can’t just discount one guy having an easier path (thus far). No one is going to discount the H2Hs, either. If this were most outstanding QB, than it’d change the argument, but it’s MVP. That’s why OPOY hardly ever goes to “Player X on the winningest team”, it’s usually “Player Y with the best stats”. 

Dak doesn’t have a narrative argument. Hurts does. Hurts doesn’t have a stats argument. Dak does. 

Dak’s narrative will either swing way better or way worse, depending on how the season plays out. Hurts’ stat argument can get better, get worse, or stay the same. But as of now - they have separate cases. Usually the stat guy also has the wins and the top seeding (or close to it), but it’s not shaking out that way right now.

You're 100% right in all of this (although I think there is more to narrative than just W/L + H2H) but I am not just doing him a major disservice, I'm absolutely blatantly slandering him for dramatic effect lol.

I do agree with everything else you are saying and that's why I have him #2. I just personally think that, at this point, the 2 extra wins (1.5) and H2H isn't enough for me to ignore the massive disparity in stats. He's certainly not out of the conversation and nothing is even close to settled yet. 

Like if he beats DAL in two weeks, he's going to be even more ahead of them record + h2h wise so your argument will get even better. I think I'll have to move him ahead, at that point.

Conversely, if Dak smacks the Eagles and the records get closer and Jalen loses the H2H advantage, I think we will be out of reasons to have him in the discussion.

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If Dak can have 3 more really good weeks he's probably gonna take it. I just don't know whether he will. He'll probably dice up the Lions at least. His SOS should start to catch up to him right about now.

I'm torn on Hurts.

I get the feeling that Mahomes goes on a tear and takes it.

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23 minutes ago, nagahide13 said:

If Dak can have 3 more really good weeks he's probably gonna take it. I just don't know whether he will. He'll probably dice up the Lions at least. His SOS should start to catch up to him right about now.

I'm torn on Hurts.

I get the feeling that Mahomes goes on a tear and takes it.

Mahomes is definitely one to watch imo. He's going to make a strong push and if he shines against Josh Allen next week, the Chiefs could easily go undefeated down the stretch. 

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Honestly, I'm usually against it, but this is a year where I think a non QB should get it. Hill particularly. If it goes to a QB this year, it just shows how big of a handicap they have on the award and waters it down. If a QB was having a truly great season I'd stomach it more. 

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36 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Honestly, I'm usually against it, but this is a year where I think a non QB should get it. Hill particularly. If it goes to a QB this year, it just shows how big of a handicap they have on the award and waters it down. If a QB was having a truly great season I'd stomach it more. 

Maybe check how Dak Prescott has been playing since week 6.

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34 minutes ago, lancerman said:

He's having a good year. Hill might end this year having the best ever at his position. Dak isn't even having a top 5 QB year of the last few years.

Yeah, big disagree.  Hill has always been a splash player, that’s his niche.  Don’t misconstrue that into him being the catalysts of teams winning. 

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12 minutes ago, ///mcompact said:

Yeah, big disagree.  Hill has always been a splash player, that’s his niche.  Don’t misconstrue that into him being the catalysts of teams winning. 

When you have two guys in the top 10/11 for MVP conversation, I'm not entirely positive that you have ONE. I don't think Purdy, McCaffrey, Tua or Hill has a real shot unless something big happens.

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