Madmike90 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 1 minute ago, CWood21 said: I was talking about Chicago. If Chicago believes they're a playoff contender, that SRP is coming in that 48-54. Not a top 40 pick. A SRP next year just doesn't have that same weight that a '24 SRP does. Using the JJ TVC, the difference between the 5th and 9th pick is worth the 55th pick. And even if you include the 110th pick that the Chargers own, that's still roughly worth the 47th overall pick. I'm not sure why the Chargers would include an additional pick just to get a '25 pick. If I'm the Chargers, you're either coughing up a '25 FRP or you need more present day value. Bears Get: #5 #140 Chargers Get: #9 #75 '25 SRP And if I'm the Chargers and any team in that 6-12 range is willing to give me a SRP on top of their FRP this year, I'd take that in a heartbeat over that Bears' package. Or we could keep our 3rd and trade the Panthers 2025 2nd...which without doubt will be a top 40 pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 1 minute ago, Madmike90 said: Or we could keep our 3rd and trade the Panthers 2025 2nd...which without doubt will be a top 40 pick. So...again, I'll pose the question to you. You're the Chargers' GM, and you've got 3 hypothetical offers on the phone for you right now. Chicago is offering #9 and that Panthers' SRP in 2025 and NY Giants are offering #6 and #47 for #5 and #84, and NO is offering #14 and #45 for #5, which package do you take? Yes. That Panthers' pick is tasty. But it's also not conveying until a year from now. I can't imagine there's many teams that would prefer a '25 SRP as opposed to a '24 SRP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 5 minutes ago, CWood21 said: So...again, I'll pose the question to you. You're the Chargers' GM, and you've got 3 hypothetical offers on the phone for you right now. Chicago is offering #9 and that Panthers' SRP in 2025 and NY Giants are offering #6 and #47 for #5 and #84, and NO is offering #14 and #45 for #5, which package do you take? Yes. That Panthers' pick is tasty. But it's also not conveying until a year from now. I can't imagine there's many teams that would prefer a '25 SRP as opposed to a '24 SRP. Your just making up packages now 😂 Okay my guy...I guess we will see how it plays out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Just now, Madmike90 said: Your just making up packages now 😂 Okay my guy...I guess we will see how it plays out. We're talking about hypotheticals here. All I'm saying is that because the Panthers' SRP in 2025 looks tasty doesn't mean it trumps the other potential packages. If you're choice is value today or value tomorrow, 99.9% of all GMs are going to take the value today. There's no guarantee that Joe Hortiz will be around to make the pick. And if we're being honest, I think this is probably more of a luxury than the Bears can afford. I think they make a small trade down to a team in that 12-16 range and pick up some more picks, and then grab a defender there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Just now, CWood21 said: We're talking about hypotheticals here. All I'm saying is that because the Panthers' SRP in 2025 looks tasty doesn't mean it trumps the other potential packages. If you're choice is value today or value tomorrow, 99.9% of all GMs are going to take the value today. There's no guarantee that Joe Hortiz will be around to make the pick. And if we're being honest, I think this is probably more of a luxury than the Bears can afford. I think they make a small trade down to a team in that 12-16 range and pick up some more picks, and then grab a defender there. Couple of things... I disagree 99.9% of GMs would prefer picks in this draft compared to the next one as several people have spoke about how weak this draft is especially in later round. Joe Hortiz is going no where after year one and will be making the picks in 2025 along with Harbaugh. I don't think it is a luxury for the Bears to move up at all...people see to equate a lack of picks with not being able to fill needs but then seem to forget how we have used the assets we had in this draft so far...i.e Sweat & Allen...plus we have plenty of cap space remaining and multiple options open to us to create more through extensions and conversions. We also had the #1 scoring defence in the NFL over the last six games and have lost nothing but an over the hill safety & a rotational DT from that defence...as much as adding another DL would be good in the 1st round taking someone to help your rookie QB develop is far more important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 30 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: I disagree 99.9% of GMs would prefer picks in this draft compared to the next one as several people have spoke about how weak this draft is especially in later round. We're talking about Day 2 picks. Not late round picks. And it's really not a weak draft by any means. It's got a couple of positions (off-ball LB, RB, etc.) where it's not great, but you've got quality in other positions (QB, WR, OT, etc.). The notion that it's a bad draft needs to die. It's a solid draft and good in a few areas in particular. 31 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: Joe Hortiz is going no where after year one and will be making the picks in 2025 along with Harbaugh. Kinda like there was no way that Urban Meyer would be fired a year into his gig? I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not impossible. 32 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: I don't think it is a luxury for the Bears to move up at all...people see to equate a lack of picks with not being able to fill needs but then seem to forget how we have used the assets we had in this draft so far...i.e Sweat & Allen...plus we have plenty of cap space remaining and multiple options open to us to create more through extensions and conversions. We also had the #1 scoring defence in the NFL over the last six games and have lost nothing but an over the hill safety & a rotational DT from that defence...as much as adding another DL would be good in the 1st round taking someone to help your rookie QB develop is far more important. As an outsider, I don't believe the Bears are a QB away from being a playoff team. Don't get me wrong, they're substantially more competitive with a competent QB (and that's coming from someone who was critical of Justin Fields). But they've got holes on their roster. I'll be honest, I wasn't a fan of the Swift signing since I felt like Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert plus a rookie would have been just fine. DJ Moore obviously is a stud, but Mike Williams has played in 16 games over the last 2 years. If he can't stay healthy, there's a massive drop off after those two. Maybe Tyler Scott can elevate his play. Personally, I think Cole Kmet is a tad overrated, but he's a rock solid TE. On the offensive line, their tackles should be capable but the IOL still scares me. Optimism runs high on Ryan Bates, but I'm still bullish on Teven Jenkins and Nate Davis. Defensively, my biggest question comes who plays opposite of Montez Sweat. Sweat is obviously a good pass rusher, but there's a massive hole opposite of him. But DeMarcus Walker isn't good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 1 minute ago, CWood21 said: We're talking about Day 2 picks. Not late round picks. And it's really not a weak draft by any means. It's got a couple of positions (off-ball LB, RB, etc.) where it's not great, but you've got quality in other positions (QB, WR, OT, etc.). The notion that it's a bad draft needs to die. It's a solid draft and good in a few areas in particular. Kinda like there was no way that Urban Meyer would be fired a year into his gig? I'm not saying it's likely, but it's not impossible. As an outsider, I don't believe the Bears are a QB away from being a playoff team. Don't get me wrong, they're substantially more competitive with a competent QB (and that's coming from someone who was critical of Justin Fields). But they've got holes on their roster. I'll be honest, I wasn't a fan of the Swift signing since I felt like Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert plus a rookie would have been just fine. DJ Moore obviously is a stud, but Mike Williams has played in 16 games over the last 2 years. If he can't stay healthy, there's a massive drop off after those two. Maybe Tyler Scott can elevate his play. Personally, I think Cole Kmet is a tad overrated, but he's a rock solid TE. On the offensive line, their tackles should be capable but the IOL still scares me. Optimism runs high on Ryan Bates, but I'm still bullish on Teven Jenkins and Nate Davis. Defensively, my biggest question comes who plays opposite of Montez Sweat. Sweat is obviously a good pass rusher, but there's a massive hole opposite of him. But DeMarcus Walker isn't good. We will need to agree to disagree on the quality of this draft and wait 3 years to find out... Harbaugh isn't Meyer...not close...not in any way... We didn't sign Mike Williams...we brought in Keenan Allen... Kmet is far better than rock solid... If your bullish that Jenkins is not a good guard when healthy then I don't know what to tell you... Walker was very good as soon as he wasn't asked to be the #1 DE and Sweat came in... Like you said your an outsider looking in but some of these takes really show it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 3 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: We will need to agree to disagree on the quality of this draft and wait 3 years to find out... Harbaugh isn't Meyer...not close...not in any way... We didn't sign Mike Williams...we brought in Keenan Allen... Kmet is far better than rock solid... If your bullish that Jenkins is not a good guard when healthy then I don't know what to tell you... Walker was very good as soon as he wasn't asked to be the #1 DE and Sweat came in... Like you said your an outsider looking in but some of these takes really show it. I don't know why I was thinking Mike Williams. Keenan Allen received 150 targets last year. DJ Moore received 136 targets. Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison finished T-3rd in targets last year at 108. Cole Kmet had 90 targets last year. Sam Howell led the league with 612 passing attempts. That would account for 79% of the possible targets if they replicated those numbers. It's just kinda hard to justify using a top 10 pick on WR3. Otherwise, you're probably going to see a dip in someone's production. I can't think of a season in which 4 players had 90+ targets in a season. There's only so many passes to go around. As for Cole Kmet, he finished 7th in 2023 in receptions by TE at 73 and 9th in receiving yards. That's not elite by any means. That's in the really good category, which is what I meant by when I say he was rock solid. That's not a knock. Teven Jenkins finished 52nd in snaps according to PFF and was credited with 4 penalties allowed and 3 sacks surrendered. That's not terrible by any means, but I certainly wouldn't be singing his praises. But you right, because I'm not gushing over the Bears it must be bad takes. Honestly, I think the Bears are actually kinda intriguing and as much as it pains me to say, I think they might be building things correctly this time. But they have to hit on Caleb Williams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I don't know why I was thinking Mike Williams. Keenan Allen received 150 targets last year. DJ Moore received 136 targets. Zay Flowers and Jordan Addison finished T-3rd in targets last year at 108. Cole Kmet had 90 targets last year. Sam Howell led the league with 612 passing attempts. That would account for 79% of the possible targets if they replicated those numbers. It's just kinda hard to justify using a top 10 pick on WR3. Otherwise, you're probably going to see a dip in someone's production. I can't think of a season in which 4 players had 90+ targets in a season. There's only so many passes to go around. As for Cole Kmet, he finished 7th in 2023 in receptions by TE at 73 and 9th in receiving yards. That's not elite by any means. That's in the really good category, which is what I meant by when I say he was rock solid. That's not a knock. Teven Jenkins finished 52nd in snaps according to PFF and was credited with 4 penalties allowed and 3 sacks surrendered. That's not terrible by any means, but I certainly wouldn't be singing his praises. But you right, because I'm not gushing over the Bears it must be bad takes. Honestly, I think the Bears are actually kinda intriguing and as much as it pains me to say, I think they might be building things correctly this time. But they have to hit on Caleb Williams. I don't think anyone said there wouldn't be a dip in DJ's production...however that would then be replaced by Allen & the rookie...I have no issue with the ball being spread around amongst quality players... TEs only catch passes now do they? Kmet is able to finish in the top 10 for receiving as a TE while also being a quality inline blocker which added a ton to our rushing attack...but hey let's just ignore that because you can't look up the stat for it... Jenkins finished 52nd in snaps because of injury...not sure how that is relevant to his play on the field...also 4 penalties and 3 sacks is nothing for an OG...better than average in fact...and since you want to quote PFF (not sure why by the way) Jenkins finished as their 3rd ranked run blocking OG in the entire league at a grade of 85.7... I'm not saying you need to gush over the Bears for it to be a good take...I am however saying using stats is in no way going to tell you the full story of a player...I highly doubt you watch the Bears in the same way as I would...same as I would never sit down and watch a Packers game how you would...the eyeball test will always trump starts IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 7 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: I don't think anyone said there wouldn't be a dip in DJ's production...however that would then be replaced by Allen & the rookie...I have no issue with the ball being spread around amongst quality players... TEs only catch passes now do they? Kmet is able to finish in the top 10 for receiving as a TE while also being a quality inline blocker which added a ton to our rushing attack...but hey let's just ignore that because you can't look up the stat for it... At the expense of other positions? I guess go right ahead. And again, I'm not knocking Cole Kmet's ability in the running game, but TEs usually aren't paid for their run blocking otherwise guys who aren't receiving targets would be getting paid more. The Bears were a good rushing team because Justin Fields led the team in rushing yards. Not because they were so good at running the ball. But to each their own I guess. 10 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: Jenkins finished 52nd in snaps because of injury...not sure how that is relevant to his play on the field...also 4 penalties and 3 sacks is nothing for an OG...better than average in fact...and since you want to quote PFF (not sure why by the way) Jenkins finished as their 3rd ranked run blocking OG in the entire league at a grade of 85.7... The per snap part is more the issue I'm having with. For comparison, Jon Runyan whom the Giants just paid $30M to allowed 6 penalties and 2 sacks over 928 snaps. Extrapolate those snaps missed over the same snaps that Runyan did and that amounts to 6 penalties and 4 sacks allowed. And how many Packers' fans are upset about Jon Runyan leaving? I don't think any to be honest. He's a solid starting OG. Again, bullish doesn't mean that you think he's terrible. I just don't think he's worth writing home about, much like I didn't think JRJ was anything worth writing home about either. 17 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: I'm not saying you need to gush over the Bears for it to be a good take...I am however saying using stats is in no way going to tell you the full story of a player...I highly doubt you watch the Bears in the same way as I would...same as I would never sit down and watch a Packers game how you would...the eyeball test will always trump starts IMO. For some reason, I got subjugated to more Bears' games than I care to admit last year. Given the area I live in, I primarily get Chiefs and Cowboys' games but it was an unusual amount of Bears' games this year. LIS, I'm cautiously optimistic that the Bears finally figured out how to build things correctly, but I do think they've got their issues that they need to work out besides QB. And most importantly, they need Caleb Williams to hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 16 minutes ago, CWood21 said: At the expense of other positions? I guess go right ahead. And again, I'm not knocking Cole Kmet's ability in the running game, but TEs usually aren't paid for their run blocking otherwise guys who aren't receiving targets would be getting paid more. The Bears were a good rushing team because Justin Fields led the team in rushing yards. Not because they were so good at running the ball. But to each their own I guess. The per snap part is more the issue I'm having with. For comparison, Jon Runyan whom the Giants just paid $30M to allowed 6 penalties and 2 sacks over 928 snaps. Extrapolate those snaps missed over the same snaps that Runyan did and that amounts to 6 penalties and 4 sacks allowed. And how many Packers' fans are upset about Jon Runyan leaving? I don't think any to be honest. He's a solid starting OG. Again, bullish doesn't mean that you think he's terrible. I just don't think he's worth writing home about, much like I didn't think JRJ was anything worth writing home about either. For some reason, I got subjugated to more Bears' games than I care to admit last year. Given the area I live in, I primarily get Chiefs and Cowboys' games but it was an unusual amount of Bears' games this year. LIS, I'm cautiously optimistic that the Bears finally figured out how to build things correctly, but I do think they've got their issues that they need to work out besides QB. And most importantly, they need Caleb Williams to hit. Sure I would take more production at any of the skill positions...production is production only fantasy football players care where it comes from...and the better TEs are paid to do both...not only that in annual salary Kmet is only the 9th highest paid TE in football and out performs that number...we also weren't good last year because of Fields' rushing...2022 sure...but last year we were good because of the OL and no matter who ran the ball we got production...as much as Fields legs were an obvious advantage it also meant we faced far heavier boxes...give me Caleb and a lighter box and our rushing attack will continue to be very good... Landon Dickerson gave up 9 penalties & 3 sacks and just signed a contract worth $84 million over 4 years...I honestly don't see your point with regards to Runyan and again your completely ignoring the fact he is one of the best run blockers in football. Of course we still have issues...no Bears fan will tell you differently...but we have enough good players that if we add some more great ones everyone will be elevated...that is why targeting the top end of the draft would be the fastest way to speed up that process. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 20 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: Sure I would take more production at any of the skill positions...production is production only fantasy football players care where it comes from...and the better TEs are paid to do both...not only that in annual salary Kmet is only the 9th highest paid TE in football and out performs that number...we also weren't good last year because of Fields' rushing...2022 sure...but last year we were good because of the OL and no matter who ran the ball we got production...as much as Fields legs were an obvious advantage it also meant we faced far heavier boxes...give me Caleb and a lighter box and our rushing attack will continue to be very good... I guess we shall see won't we? It'll be interested to see if Chicago remains a top 3 rushing team without Justin Fields. 21 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: Landon Dickerson gave up 9 penalties & 3 sacks and just signed a contract worth $84 million over 4 years...I honestly don't see your point with regards to Runyan and again your completely ignoring the fact he is one of the best run blockers in football. Pretty much the same reason you seem to ignore his pass blocking grade. He's a miserable pass blocker compared to his run blocking. But are we going to ignore that like you accused me of ignoring Kmet's ability as a run blocker? Landon Dickerson got paid because he's a good OL who has been healthy. If Jenkins stays healthy and plays well, he's lining himself up for a big payday. If you're a capable IOL, you're going to get paid. The old days of IOL not getting paid is dead. But again, because I'm not gushing over Jenkins' ability I must be overly critical. He's pretty much what I anticipated him being when he came out of Oklahoma State. I thought he was a serviceable RT, but would be a pretty good OG that might have some issues in pass protection. What has he become? A pretty good OG that has issues in pass protection. I'm bullish in the sense that I'm not sure those pass protection issues will ever correct themselves, and he's played in 31 games over 3 seasons. He seems pretty safe bet to miss 2-3 games a year. That's why I'm bullish. Not because I think he sucks. 25 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: Of course we still have issues...no Bears fan will tell you differently...but we have enough good players that if we add some more great ones everyone will be elevated...that is why targeting the top end of the draft would be the fastest way to speed up that process. But again, your solution is to trade up to load up at a position that you're already convinced is good. And that would likely mean neglecting the other positions that could stand to improve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 21 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I guess we shall see won't we? It'll be interested to see if Chicago remains a top 3 rushing team without Justin Fields. Pretty much the same reason you seem to ignore his pass blocking grade. He's a miserable pass blocker compared to his run blocking. But are we going to ignore that like you accused me of ignoring Kmet's ability as a run blocker? Landon Dickerson got paid because he's a good OL who has been healthy. If Jenkins stays healthy and plays well, he's lining himself up for a big payday. If you're a capable IOL, you're going to get paid. The old days of IOL not getting paid is dead. But again, because I'm not gushing over Jenkins' ability I must be overly critical. He's pretty much what I anticipated him being when he came out of Oklahoma State. I thought he was a serviceable RT, but would be a pretty good OG that might have some issues in pass protection. What has he become? A pretty good OG that has issues in pass protection. I'm bullish in the sense that I'm not sure those pass protection issues will ever correct themselves, and he's played in 31 games over 3 seasons. He seems pretty safe bet to miss 2-3 games a year. That's why I'm bullish. Not because I think he sucks. But again, your solution is to trade up to load up at a position that you're already convinced is good. And that would likely mean neglecting the other positions that could stand to improve. We will see... And I am not ignoring the pass blocking grade...I am just also marrying it up with what I see on the field rather than thinking guys are paid on PFF grades...you are now saying Dickerson got paid because is is a good OL but he gave up more penalties & sacks than Jon Runyan who you and Packers fans don't care left for nearly a third of the price so which one is it? And yes my solution would be to surround my rookie QB with as many weapons as physically possible because no matter what DE or safety we could draft no one is going to have more of an impact on this franchise than Caleb is...for good or bad...so yeah get me the guys he needs and we can figure out the rest down the road like many other teams with franchise QBs do...which if treated right Caleb can become. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmike90 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Why do these kids never learn man 😑 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Epyon Posted April 7 Author Share Posted April 7 36 minutes ago, Madmike90 said: Why do these kids never learn man 😑 I'd be very interested if he's there later now. Guy is a monster DT with surprising pass rush for a dude that big..... Hell get Johny Newton in in a first round trade back and between Sweat, Billings, Dexter, and Newton you'd probably have a top tier DL interior, and also be more or less impossible to rush against, even in goal line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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