Trevor Lawrence and the Jags - Year 4 (T-Law is what he is)

[sparky151]

1 hour ago, Tugboat said:

I don't see it as that outlandish at all.  I wouldn't say it's any kind of a guarantee...but the reality is, Lawrence has had periods where he has absolutely played at a comparable level to those guys (save for Mahomes who is clearly in a tier of his own at this point).  The consistency certainly isn't there to establish himself as amongst that conversation as yet.  But the headroom is abundantly there to do so, if he does hone that consistency.  Which is even still an issue with guys in that Allen/Burrow/Herbert/Jackson group.  They're all capable of laying down a stinker here and there.  They've shown that Top-5 level more, and with the dips less pronounced and less frequent.

 

As for those other names to leapfrog...Rodgers and Stafford really don't have much longer left in them (especially AARon who is questionable as even being all that good anymore without anything to go on this year and who knows how his crystals will get him healed up for next year).  Guys like Tua and Purdy can have "Top-5 Seasons" but i think there are huge questions around Tua and how much of that is him being a Top-5QB vs just an insane amount of talent in a score happy offensive scheme designed to run up the statlines on bad teams in the regular season.  Purdy made a compelling case that it's not just the immense surrounding talent and extremely friendly scheme, but those questions are still going to persist until he proves he can do it repeatedly.  Dak certainly stoked the fires questioning whether he's anything resembling a Top5 QB with another playoff dud delivered and a lack of real year-to-year consistency in terms of knowing how many INTs he might throw.

 

Stroud complicates things, but again...it's one great season.  That arrow is point up for sure, but it's pointing up from one single data point.  It looks likely, but it's far from a guarantee that he's just going to cruise straight upward into the Top-5 conversation.

As for suggesting "a majority would prefer Richardson"...that's just ******* laughable.  Like just completely insane.  The dude has played like 4 NFL games...which certainly don't even come close to eclipsing what Lawrence has done over more prolonged stretches than that.  I can't tell if that's because you're obscenely, unfoundedly high on Richardson...or if you're just that absurdly low on Lawrence.  Getting the impression it may be a heavy dose of the latter, where you're just completely misreading what Lawrence has actually been as an NFL Quarterback because the statline isn't pretty enough or something.  In which case, i'd probably have a better chance of convincing a brick wall to be more reasonable in it's assessment of Trevor Lawrence.  😆

So Stroud isn't better than Lawrence due to small sample size but the very small sample for Richardson is enough to make it laughable that other teams would prefer him? AR looked better early in his career than TL did. I'd give Trevor a mulligan for 2021 but he's had a couple years since then with so-so results. Unless you think journeyman Jake Browning is a prodigy, Lawrence was less efficient than him last season. 

 

If you ask which teams would trade their QB straight up for Lawrence, you might get some guys like Cousins, Rodgers, and Stafford who played better but have less time left in their career. And of course the teams looking for a new QB. But the Texans or Packers or Colts would laugh if offered a straight up swap. I'd guess at least 16 teams would decline the offer from Jacksonville. 

 

[Tugboat]

37 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

The "talent" surrounding Trevor remains atrocious.  Jacksonville is the most predictable, strength of schedule sensitive team in the AFC.  The Jags had a soft schedule in 2022 that hit the rocks in 2023, with Trevor facing the second toughest opponents in football.  Next year the team confronts .512 opponents (9th hardest), which will be a challenge with Indianapolis and Houston improving so dramatically.

If they add some offensive support in the preseason I wouldn't hesitate to take Lawrence at his Average Draft Position.

I think the misconceptions of surrounding talent is definitely a factor here.  It seems like a lot of people are rolling on statlines and "name recognition" to assess that the Jaguars supporting cast offensively was somehow actually good.  When the reality is...the whole thing was well below average.

[Soggust]

4 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

 

Again though.  If you're just looking blindly at the statlines without context, it's hard to really take that opinion that Trevor Lawrence is no good, and they should be super worried about it and fretting over whether they should even pick up his 5th year option or bother extending him and maybe just think about moving on, at all seriously.

 

I already said that's only if he has a bad year next year, which you also agreed would have you concerned.

 

5 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

For one, that's not accounting for the value he actually adds with rushing TDs (which is sneaky good). 

Yes it is. I literally included his rushing TDs (totTD).

 

5 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

Suddenly the statline "Pre Injury" is 18TD combined - 7INTs (or 14TD - 7INTs passing).  That's not sterling shining perfection, but it's not bad at all considering what he was working with.  Yes, there are some lost fumbles to account for somewhere in there (though i think people are thinking of the absolutely bizarre one in primetime and imagining he's normally that careless with the football which is hyperbolic to say the least).  But that also includes the epic collapse game against the Niners where absolutely nothing good happened.  One of those, "throwaway" games that even Top-5 QBs sometimes have.  Big Top-5 Joshy had one to open the year against the Jets, and others where he seemed determined to give the game away.

The fumbles are important though. He has 33 fumbles lost since 21, second only to Fields. Presenting Lawrence as not having a fumbling issue is very disingenuous imo.

 

7 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

It's also important to realize that contrary to popular belief...the Jaguars receivers actually suck.  Very hard.  They also had like 1.5 viable Redzone targets.  Engram was always just blanketed, leaving ETN leaking out of the backfield as a sometimes option...and the rest of the receivers are just *** in compressed field situations and contested catches like that.

And that's on top of the fact that, despite missing time and playing out the end of the season completely gimped...and with a garbage receiving core, he still managed to land an ~Top-10 season when it comes to yardage.  Which isn't the end-all, be-all of QB play...but it's yet another reason that the Jaguars are still very bullish and optimistic on Lawrence and his upside.  He can move the ball, at a very high level.  Perception is coming around to the idea that he's far more of a gunslinger than expected, but is there really anything wrong with that?  Great gunslingers can win you a lot more games than they lose for you.

I actually 100% agree with all of this. Trevor is good at moving the ball. Its one of the things to really like about him. His problem is scoring touchdowns and turning the ball over, fumbles specifically. The problem comparing Lawrence to an Allen, per se, is that Allen IS demonstrably winning those games by winning more than TL and producing a lot of TDs. Trevor still hasn't scored over 30 TDs in a season and 25 is his best passing year. 

 

9 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

 

I get that it's fudging things a little bit in terms of moving things around to accommodate for Lawrence context, that isn't necessarily being done with other QBs.  I understand how that comes across as "excuse making".  But it's a more accurate representation of how he actually played, and an explanation of why Jaguars fans aren't so skittish on his numbers and actually still have a large amount of optimism about him, compared to outsiders who aren't considering that stuff.

I'm probably not going to convince you to look beyond the stats and believe that Lawrence was playing at a level higher than your statistical estimation showed.  That's asking a lot.  But i'd hope to at least explain to you why this "henny penny the sky is falling" bull**** about Lawrence being a mediocre QB destined for a future as an average or below average QB is completely lost on the people who actually watch the guy and still accept him as the clear future of the franchise.

One clarification - I don't think I project like you are suggesting. I'm saying what he's been to date. He could be top 5 next year, and I've said so on multiple occasions. I think anyone could, frankly. And if Trevor does, I'll move him up and give him credit for a top 5 year. All I'm saying is, to date, he's been below average and if we look at the cumulative body of work, it leaves a lot to be desired, especially, when you think about how much to pay him going forward.

You're looking at "Top X year" as an indictment on his talent, but it's an indictment on his production. There are tons of valid reasons, like you stated as to why, but that doesn't change what his body of work is to date. And I'm fine applying context but you're not doing that for every other QB, so it doesn't make sense in comparisons and I can only objectively excuse so many games when looking at the future.

We are, quite literally, making justifications for over half the guys' career at this point, 3 years in. But even still, he could be great next year, sure.

 

16 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

That's what it is.  It's an "explanation".  Not "excuses".

Trust me, Jaguars fans are intimately familiar with "excuses" for a mediocre Top-20 at best QB.  Bortles got "excuses" and some fans talking themselves into him being "good enough".  Gabbert even got excuses that were brilliantly flimsy and transparently desperate.  Garrard got excuses like, "well he's pretty responsible with the ball i guess - maybe we can win by just pounding the rock and playing good defense".  Leftwich got excuses briefly, but equally flimsy.  Even Brunell got excuses.  But it was always just framed in terms of, "maybe they're good enough if all these things fall just right and you just stack everything else around them".

Lawrence is getting "Explanations".  It has a completely different tone to it.  It's not tinged with dissatisfaction, frustration, and just dangerous levels of "coping" and "denial".  It's colored by optimism because he's shown stretches of play that are far and away the best quarterbacking that the franchise has ever seen.  The sort of thing that fans can envision legitimately carrying a franchise.  And to the point where even having Stroud emerging in the division...most Jaguars fans still feel pretty confident that they've got the guy to go toe-to-toe with him for a decade.

I think every word of this can be true and he could still end up not being the guy or even a top QB, due to situation, injury, coaching, support, whatever.

 

20 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

So yeah.  I don't expect you to necessarily agree about where exactly Lawrence stands at the moment.  But i'd hope you can at least try to understand why this kind of overblown hysteria over how bad Lawrence is, doesn't resonate whatsoever with the people who actually have to watch and deal with him as their QB.

I think you're taking it as "cut him, he's trash" when really it's more of "what happens if he tears an ACL week 2 next year" and "what if he has another ~25totTD : 14 Turnover kinds of years next year?". 

Your takes comes off that that's an unreasonable outcome, but it seems very likely given the previous years. And whether that's due to coaching, support, injuries whatever - I'm not sure why I'm confident to expect the Jags to have resolved all of those and set him up perfectly to succeed next year, given they haven't to date.

[Tugboat]

12 minutes ago, El Ramster said:

The problem with potential it only works when you’re really young. Trevor has data going back 3 years. Potential works for a guy like Richardson who showed he can make every throw he’s just riddled with injuries. But that man did things not many QBs can do. 
 

I’m not hating on Trevor. Seems to me like you’re content with what he’s shown and he’s a perfect fit. But justifying so many things it’s almost like he has an excuse for everything. Reminds me a lot of the conversations we had as Ram fans about Bradford. 
 

At one point the data has to overcome the hopefulness. He’s been a good to solid qb with plenty of room to to improve. Top QBs make do with what they have, and honestly Trevor has a pretty good skill set of guys. 
 

Travis, Kirk and Engram are Damm good pieces. It’s not like he’s Kyler out there with a bunch of scrubs. This will be a big year. I expect the colts and the Texans to swap places. The jags have the better team on paper specially with their defensive talent… 

I like Jacksonville they’ve built the right way. 

I mean...Lawrence has also shown that he can make all the throws and do things that very very few can do.  He's just played a lot more than 4 games.  He's still plenty young and hasn't really shown signs that he's hit a real "plateau" in his development.  He's still clearly making improvements (and sometimes hitting bumps in the road that accompany that).  Heck, he's barely older than a bunch of the guys getting 1st/2nd round talk as QB prospects in this draft.  😆

 

And this other thing...is what i was just commenting on.  This notion that the Jaguars have surrounded him with this really good supporting cast.  It's a crock of ****.

ETN is great...but i'd wager good money most fans couldn't even name another RB on the Jaguars roster.  The whole lot of 'em managed a whopping 2.6YPC for a grand total of like 240 yards.  All season.  Which is also partially down to the OLine that has massively underperformed expectations based on "names" and "salary".  Between injuries and guys like Scherff playing like lower end starters at Pro Bowler money...it was not a good unit.  Not really an excuse as most teams have a bad OLine...but clearly a bottom-third unit that was very much not "helping" him.

Engram's huge season is really just an illustration of how unreliable the rest of his receiving weapons are.  He's been great and has huge chemistry with Lawrence.  But when he's the only reliable target, that's not a very good supporting cast.  Kirk hits some big plays and would be fine as a mediocre very overpaid WR2.  But that's not really where he's slotted into the depth chart.  And there's really no big contested catch target in the mix...which is terrible for the sort of "gunslinger" we now know that Lawrence is.  Lawrence clearly isn't at the place where he can completely transcend the talent around him like Mahomes.  lol.  But how many QBs other than Mahomes actually are?

 

Even the defense for the Jaguars is wildly inconsistent.  There's huge talent, but from game to game...you never really knew what to expect.

 

3 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

So Stroud isn't better than Lawrence due to small sample size but the very small sample for Richardson is enough to make it laughable that other teams would prefer him? AR looked better early in his career than TL did. I'd give Trevor a mulligan for 2021 but he's had a couple years since then with so-so results. Unless you think journeyman Jake Browning is a prodigy, Lawrence was less efficient than him last season. 

 

If you ask which teams would trade their QB straight up for Lawrence, you might get some guys like Cousins, Rodgers, and Stafford who played better but have less time left in their career. And of course the teams looking for a new QB. But the Texans or Packers or Colts would laugh if offered a straight up swap. I'd guess at least 16 teams would decline the offer from Jacksonville. 

 

I really don't understand what you're even arguing here.  Yes...i think small, and especially absolutely miniscule 4 game samples are an insane thing to be moving guys "clearly ahead" of a guy who has had ups and downs but has put together multiple instances of larger samples that best those extremely limited samples even if you want to play a "who had the best few games" thing for some reason.

Are you genuinely trying to argue that you think Browning is a better QB than Lawrence right now?   Because when you're talking about these tiny samples, the same thing applies to Browning as does to Richardson.

 

Stroud clearly had a better season this year.  I don't think anyone would contest that.  I never said anything remotely to the effect that Stroud isn't better than Lawrence.  You're trying to put words in my mouth.  All i said is that again...it's one season.  I don't think it's outrageous to believe that Lawrence could come back with a comparable season to Stroud next year.  Or even better.  Or that Stroud could hit a sophomore slump and regress, or any number of outcomes.  Because it's one year.  And contrary to what people seem to be expecting from Lawrence...development is very rarely that linear.  That means that it's far from set in stone, and far from preposterous to suggest that Lawrence could still end up better than Stroud in the long-run.  Or just right up there with him as fellow Top-5 QBs in the not too distant future.

[MagicMT]

4 hours ago, Tugboat said:

That means that it's far from set in stone, and far from preposterous to suggest that Lawrence could still end up better than Stroud in the long-run.  Or just right up there with him as fellow Top-5 QBs in the not too distant future.

It's definitely possible. But there's only a very small chance that Lawrence ends up better than Stroud in the long run. Stroud was better as a rookie than Lawrence ever was in 3 years. 
The more likely scenario is that Stroud keeps developing and keeps improving, and that Lawrence does exactly that as well. Thing is, Stroud is already a better player, he stands a way higher chance to still be a better player in 5 years.
And how does Stroud's season is a small sample but Lawrence having "top 5 stretches" (haven't ever seen that personally) for maybeee 7-8 games at the end of 22' season is enough for you to project him to be "comfortably" top 10 going forward? 

[sparky151]

19 hours ago, Tugboat said:

 

 

I really don't understand what you're even arguing here.  Yes...i think small, and especially absolutely miniscule 4 game samples are an insane thing to be moving guys "clearly ahead" of a guy who has had ups and downs but has put together multiple instances of larger samples that best those extremely limited samples even if you want to play a "who had the best few games" thing for some reason.

Are you genuinely trying to argue that you think Browning is a better QB than Lawrence right now?   Because when you're talking about these tiny samples, the same thing applies to Browning as does to Richardson.

 

Stroud clearly had a better season this year.  I don't think anyone would contest that.  I never said anything remotely to the effect that Stroud isn't better than Lawrence.  You're trying to put words in my mouth.  All i said is that again...it's one season.  I don't think it's outrageous to believe that Lawrence could come back with a comparable season to Stroud next year.  Or even better.  Or that Stroud could hit a sophomore slump and regress, or any number of outcomes.  Because it's one year.  And contrary to what people seem to be expecting from Lawrence...development is very rarely that linear.  That means that it's far from set in stone, and far from preposterous to suggest that Lawrence could still end up better than Stroud in the long-run.  Or just right up there with him as fellow Top-5 QBs in the not too distant future.

My argument is that nobody in Indianapolis would trade Richardson for Lawrence straight up. It was only 4 games but AR showed that his tools translated to the NFL. Likewise with Browning, though Cincinnati would no doubt trade him for a decent return if offered. When Burrow got hurt, Browning was thrown into action and overall did pretty well. I assume you'd agree he was better than Bagent or DeVito or O'Connell or Stidham? Browning actually had a better passer rating than Burrow, Mahomes, Allen, and dare I say it...Lawrence. 

You keep making excuses for Trevor and blaming his team mates, but to ask Billy Beane's question about a baseball player, "if he's so good, why doesn't he play good"? You say you'd refuse the top pick in this draft if offered for Lawrence. The flip side of that is if Jacksonville offered Lawrence for pick 1, the Bears would quickly decline. Maybe Lawrence improves and breaks out above the David Carr or Geno Smith level he's at currently. But also maybe he peaked in 2022. 

Stroud has already established a higher level of play in his 1 season than Lawrence has reached in any of his 3 years. It seems obvious that Stroud is more likely to be a top 5 QB than Lawrence. 

 

 

[Dr A W Niloc]

8 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Stroud has already established a higher level of play in his 1 season than Lawrence has reached in any of his 3 years. It seems obvious that Stroud is more likely to be a top 5 QB than Lawrence.

      It seems obvious that both with be top 5 QBs.  Both have similarly average PFF rankings, defenses, and win totals.  Are the offenses similar, though?

      One of these QBs won 10 games with the tenth best Pass Block Win Rate, 16th best OTs, a second best WR who is 32 rungs--an entire league--better than the other QBs best  WR.

      The other QB managed 9 wins with a much tougher schedule (25th versus 5th), a WR1 ranked 5 steps below the other's WR3, and OTs who couldn't block an artery.

      Which of these QBs--not which team or offense but which QB in isolation--performed better in 2023?

      Perhaps we'll have a different perspective when Lawrence gives up on Jacksonville and signs with an offense comparable to Houston's.  (This is coming from arguably the biggest Stroud fanbois here.)

 

[WizeGuy]

I'm interested to see how next year looks for him. It seems we're always waiting for him to elevate to elite status. Last year he was looking good until the injuries hit. He probably won't live up to his pre-draft hype, though. 

[roger murdock]

The issue with Trevor Lawrence is that while he seems to have all the physical tools he seems to process slowly and shows a poor growth trajectory over the last 5 years. How much improvement do you think he's shown since freshmen year at Clemson? Is he 20% better than he was 5 years ago? I think thats about right. 

 

Most star QBs either start out great right away (Mahomes, Rodgers, Stroud, Herbert, etc) or crazy growth trajectory (Allen, Burrow, Lamar, Hurts, etc)

 

Hes been acceptable 3 years in a row. Hes not that good and hes not showing that he will get much better. 

 

Edited February 19 by roger murdock

[MagicMT]

15 hours ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

 It seems obvious that both with be top 5 QBs. 

What makes it "obvious" that Lawrence will be top 5 QB? 
You think he's going to magically leapfrog Jackson/Burrow/Herbert/Stroud/Love within the next 2-3 years? 
I don't see it. 

[KhanYouDigIt]

It went downhill for him and basically the whole team when he got hurt against the Bengals. The injuries piled up for him, no running game, worst C in the NFL single handedly destroying drives.

https://x.com/robertmays/status/1737315439779185128?s=46&t=ij2QPDyyrPt7OElOLPw06A

 

Whole offense shot themselves in the foot the whole year. 
 

Next year is a big year for him. If they address the interior OL, he will be just fine.

[KhanYouDigIt]

31 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

What makes it "obvious" that Lawrence will be top 5 QB? 
You think he's going to magically leapfrog Jackson/Burrow/Herbert/Stroud/Love within the next 2-3 years? 
I don't see it. 

Lawrence, Herbert and Jackson all have similar numbers over their last 2 seasons worth of games (34 games). It’s not that far fetched.

[KhanYouDigIt]

52 minutes ago, roger murdock said:

The issue with Trevor Lawrence is that while he seems to have all the physical tools he seems to process slowly and shows a poor growth trajectory over the last 5 years. How much improvement do you think he's shown since freshmen year at Clemson? Is he 20% better than he was 5 years ago? I think thats about right. 

 

Most star QBs either start out great right away (Mahomes, Rodgers, Stroud, Herbert, etc) or crazy growth trajectory (Allen, Burrow, Lamar, Hurts, etc)

 

Hes been acceptable 3 years in a row. Hes not good and hes not showing that he will get much better. 

 

“He’s not good” 

Yeesh.

[SodeeWater_Cheezburger]

34 minutes ago, MagicMT said:

What makes it "obvious" that Lawrence will be top 5 QB? 
You think he's going to magically leapfrog Jackson/Burrow/Herbert/Stroud/Love within the next 2-3 years? 
I don't see it. 

He has some work to do to catch up to Jackson & Burrow, and he and Stroud are probably about even right now.  He is a little better than Herbert, and quite a bit better than Love, IMO.  I don't know if he has the drive to ever be a Top 5 QB, but I could be wrong on that.  He should comfortably be Top 10 from now on after this year, unless something goes horribly wrong.

[roger murdock]

16 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

“He’s not good” 

Yeesh.

Meant to say hes not that good, I'll edit my post. He's in the Kirk Cousins tier of solid starter.