Trevor Lawrence and the Jags - Year 4 (T-Law is what he is)

[HoboRocket]

54 minutes ago, Forge said:

Shhh BCBrock is getting lumped in with Herbert, Mahomes, and Burrow. Next time they might not say "hell, even" first.

[MagicMT]

On 2/24/2024 at 9:44 AM, LinderFournette said:

I would say nothing really changes for the jags.

Lawrence would look better due to having chase Higgins Boyd tho

Man you Jags fans are something else. So nothing would change for the Jags because Burrow and Lawrence are the same caliber of QB? How could you even say that ? I get that you are a fan of your team and are a little bit biased, but to say Lawrence = Burrow is just so ridiculous. 

On 2/24/2024 at 10:52 AM, KhanYouDigIt said:

He literally said he has the most turnovers in the NFL since entering the league. Hence, why I said losing 64% of his fumbles is unlucky. 

Yup, and I was right. "But but but he is unlucky". Still leads the league in turnover.
But surely it's only because of bad luck, and all other QBs in the NFL are lucky. Lawrence is the only unlucky player in the league, therefore any statistics showing he's bad at something is the fault of either bad luck, bad coaching or bad players around him. Never his fault. 
You are excusing every single TL mistake but not affording the same to other players. 
And I'm sure you will come back with the "you haven't watched all of his snaps like me" but at some point having the MOST turnovers in the NFL isn't ONLY a question of bad luck. 
It's really hard to have a discussion with you, you are the biggest homer on this website when it comes to Trevor Lawrence and you are so biased that it is impossible for you to be reasonable about him. People are agreeing he might be unlucky, but are saying he is also turnover prone. 
For some reason you can't admit he is turnover prone but he LEADS the league in TO since he started in '21. How can he not be turnover prone? Hard to take you seriously after that. 

[CWood21]

18 hours ago, SodeeWater_Cheezburger said:

Texans fans have got to be very excited after his rookie season.  I don't see why that wouldn't continue, unless he starts hanging around with the Kardashians a lot, but I won't open that can of worms here.  He should have a great career.  I just don't think there is much difference between he and Lawrence. 

One thing for people to keep in mind is that, even though the Jags imploded at the end of the year and opened the door for the Texans to take advantage, the Jags did sweep them the two times they played during the regular season.

In any case, I don't want to shortchange either one of them.  I'd absolutely love to have either one of them playing for the Bears! 

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but CJ Stroud posted the lowest INT% of any rookie QB with at least 300 passing attempts in NFL history other than Dak Prescott.  Dak Prescott's INT% of 0.9% (over 459 passing attempts) was the only better INT% than CJ Stroud's 1.0% (over 499 passing attempts) I believe.  Stroud did a fantastic job of limitng his interceptions.

[Soggust]

One thing I'm genuinely curious about is what they are going to resign Trevor for.

With the cap going up, are we thinking a 50-55m a year contract is viable for a guy who has struggled to date because of lack of support? Maybe he even commands 60-65m if he has a top 5 year?

Let's assume middle of the road, for argument's sake, that he puts up like 4000 25:10 at a 92.0 rating (top 10-15ish) and they lose the wildcard game next year. 

[sparky151]

I'd guess the Jags exercise the 5th year option but don't extend him this offseason. If his year 4 play is like you posit, they wouldn't pay top 5 money for him. He should get more than Daniel Jones 40 mil but not close to Jalen Hurts 50. 

[Soggust]

11 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

I'd guess the Jags exercise the 5th year option but don't extend him this offseason. If his year 4 play is like you posit, they wouldn't pay top 5 money for him. He should get more than Daniel Jones 40 mil but not close to Jalen Hurts 50. 

That makes sense on the surface, and was what I was initially thinking, but then I thought - does that mean Trevor won't get a second contract this year and will play on a 5th year option unless he's a top 5ish QB?

Seems like kinda lofty expectations

[LinderFournette]

1 hour ago, MagicMT said:

Man you Jags fans are something else. So nothing would change for the Jags because Burrow and Lawrence are the same caliber of QB? How could you even say that ? I get that you are a fan of your team and are a little bit biased, but to say Lawrence = Burrow is just so ridiculous. 

No I'm just stating that Chase Higgins Boyd are significantly better then Kirk Ridley Zay. 

Maybe a TE advantage for the jags with engram but I think burrows benefits alot with the talent around him. 

Jags really don't improve that much going from Lawrence to Burrows especially since burrows has problems staying healthy.

 

[sparky151]

2 hours ago, Soggust said:

That makes sense on the surface, and was what I was initially thinking, but then I thought - does that mean Trevor won't get a second contract this year and will play on a 5th year option unless he's a top 5ish QB?

Seems like kinda lofty expectations

Assuming they exercise his option, he'll be under contract for 2 more years. There's no reason for Jacksonville to extend him now. The Jags should continue with him while he's cheap. He's 2 contract years and 2 franchise tags away from leaving so no rush. 

[SodeeWater_Cheezburger]

3 minutes ago, sparky151 said:

Assuming they exercise his option, he'll be under contract for 2 more years. There's no reason for Jacksonville to extend him now. The Jags should continue with him while he's cheap. He's 2 contract years and 2 franchise tags away from leaving so no rush. 

If I were the Jaguars, I would see how things go next season and let that play a big role in determining how big of a contract I offer him after next year.  I would definitely be planning on signing a contract with him then.  He is the future for the Jaguars.  Right now, it's just a question of how much it is going to cost.

[sparky151]

Jags are planning on him as the future. But he could stumble again in 2024. Even if he doesn't, he'd have to really elevate his game to deserve a $50 mil+ deal. If he stays healthy and plays at his 2022 level, then 42-45 mil per year on a 5 year deal seems reasonable. 

[Tugboat]

5 hours ago, sparky151 said:

Jags are planning on him as the future. But he could stumble again in 2024. Even if he doesn't, he'd have to really elevate his game to deserve a $50 mil+ deal. If he stays healthy and plays at his 2022 level, then 42-45 mil per year on a 5 year deal seems reasonable. 

With QBs, the whole idea of "earned" pretty much went out the window.  It's a leapfrog game now.  Next contract up is the biggest.  Turning point where it became abundantly clear was the Kyler Murray deal but it was building before that.  However, at the end of the day...if you have a Franchise QB you don't really care that much.  It's also wildly subject to contract structure.  Herbert's deal for example is structured all over the place.  The cap also just jumped by like $30M so that money in the system is gonna go somewhere.  There are a lot worse places for it to go than a Franchise QB.

 

If Lawrence suddenly stinks next year, then sure there are questions to be asked.  But that seems unlikely.  So it's probably going to be some sort of bonkers contract and the Tua thing is going to play into it all.  But the Jaguars have an entire extra year on a very reasonable 5th year option to figure it all out.  There's zero panic about this whole thing.  He'll show what he is and be compensated accordingly.

[Soggust]

34 minutes ago, Tugboat said:

With QBs, the whole idea of "earned" pretty much went out the window.  It's a leapfrog game now.  Next contract up is the biggest.  Turning point where it became abundantly clear was the Kyler Murray deal but it was building before that.  However, at the end of the day...if you have a Franchise QB you don't really care that much.  It's also wildly subject to contract structure.  Herbert's deal for example is structured all over the place.  The cap also just jumped by like $30M so that money in the system is gonna go somewhere.  There are a lot worse places for it to go than a Franchise QB.

 

If Lawrence suddenly stinks next year, then sure there are questions to be asked.  But that seems unlikely.  So it's probably going to be some sort of bonkers contract and the Tua thing is going to play into it all.  But the Jaguars have an entire extra year on a very reasonable 5th year option to figure it all out.  There's zero panic about this whole thing.  He'll show what he is and be compensated accordingly.

Very much agree with the leapfrog logic and your entire first paragraph, which is why I wonder about the contract.

I'm not asking if Lawrence stinks next year or even if he crushes next year. I am making no statement about how good he is lol.

I'm very purposefully asking if he has a top 10-15 year next year, because "we are going to the option year" feels not great when you have a guy that you truly believe in.

But maybe this is where I'm just dead wrong because I don't really know the history of how many great franchise QBs went to option years. Just seems like they usually get locked up before then (def a scientific fact I didn't just make up on the spot completely here)?

And as much as I've been unfair to Trevor, I just feel like telling him he needs a top 5ish year in order to get the big second deal we think he will get, is kinda bs as well, given how much the city of JAX seems to love him.

Edited February 26 by Soggust

[Tugboat]

57 minutes ago, Soggust said:

Very much agree with the leapfrog logic and your entire first paragraph, which is why I wonder about the contract.

I'm not asking if Lawrence stinks next year or even if he crushes next year. I am making no statement about how good he is lol.

I'm very purposefully asking if he has a top 10-15 year next year, because "we are going to the option year" feels not great when you have a guy that you truly believe in.

But maybe this is where I'm just dead wrong because I don't really know the history of how many great franchise QBs went to option years. Just seems like they usually get locked up before then (def a scientific fact I didn't just make up on the spot completely here)?

And as much as I've been unfair to Trevor, I just feel like telling him he needs a top 5ish year in order to get the big second deal we think he will get, is kinda bs as well, given how much the city of JAX seems to love him.

 

I think that's kind of the reality though.  Because of the situation.

 

Either Trevor Lawrence plays well enough that they say "**** it" and just lock him up to that silly QB leapfrog Megadeal...or he plays in a way that brings that into question, where they exercise that 5th year option and take it from there.

 

Those are basically the only two realistic outcomes here.  But they've got options.

[LinderFournette]

13 hours ago, Soggust said:

Very much agree with the leapfrog logic and your entire first paragraph, which is why I wonder about the contract.

I'm not asking if Lawrence stinks next year or even if he crushes next year. I am making no statement about how good he is lol.

I'm very purposefully asking if he has a top 10-15 year next year, because "we are going to the option year" feels not great when you have a guy that you truly believe in.

But maybe this is where I'm just dead wrong because I don't really know the history of how many great franchise QBs went to option years. Just seems like they usually get locked up before then (def a scientific fact I didn't just make up on the spot completely here)?

And as much as I've been unfair to Trevor, I just feel like telling him he needs a top 5ish year in order to get the big second deal we think he will get, is kinda bs as well, given how much the city of JAX seems to love him.

U know why I don't extend him this year. 

Daniel Jones.  

Not saying Trevor is Daniel Jones but more like I don't want that kinda contract on a QB who hasn't proved he's a true franchise guy.

Jags got stuck with 1 of those premature extensions with Blake Bortles and it just sucked.  Love Blake Bortles the guy especially since we were pretty much at that highschool at the same time but he wasn't a true QB. 

If he shows out next year I have no problem extending him then but there's too many what the f moments to commit to it right now.

I'm perfectly fine extending him if he shows he's a top 10 guy. 12 would probably be the hard limit. 

I'm just not sure why Trevor has this problem fumbling when he has Big 10 inch hands. To give comparison dak and Herbert both have the same hand size.

[sparky151]

I doubt Lawrence gets the $50 mil+ megadeal just for being next guy in line. He'll have to do something like take the Jags to the Superbowl like Hurts or Burrow or put up big numbers like Herbert or win an MVP like Jackson.