Trevor Lawrence and the Jags - Year 4 (T-Law is what he is)

[NYJets4716]

Loaded weapons and really no injuries on that team. Obviously going to win the superbowl. 

[Soggust]

I'm going to continue to die on this hill until Trevor improves his numbers.

 

Stats:

Spoiler

First 3 years - 

And Trevor has 8 more fumbles lost.

 

[KhanYouDigIt]

28 minutes ago, CP3MVP said:

Carson wentz was 1or 2 for the entire season until he got hurt. Lawrence is nowhere close lol

Top 6 doesn’t count as a candidate at the halfway mark? News to me.

[KhanYouDigIt]

5 minutes ago, Soggust said:

I'm going to continue to die on this hill until Trevor improves his numbers.

 

Stats:

  Hide contents

First 3 years - 

And Trevor has 8 more fumbles lost.

 

Now show me last 25 games for each after their rookie season.

[iknowcool]

16 hours ago, Nabbs4u said:

 If he was still playing, Lucks Colt teams especially when they had the best OL in football, very good defense and JT running wild would of been the Chiefs biggest threat.

This is making a LOT of assumptions.

Colts made 1 AFC Championship game under Andrew Luck and lost 7-45.  The year before they lost 22-43 in the Divisional Round.  In Luck's final playoff game they lost 13-31 in the Divisional Round to the Chiefs.

And keep in mind Andrew Luck was 29 years old by the time that final loss happened.  There is nothing at all that suggests the Colts under Luck were on track to be the Chiefs biggest threat.  There is nothing that suggests the Colts were on track to be as good or better than the Bengals or Bills.  Hell, are we even sure Andrew Luck was better than Josh Allen?  Because I don't think he is/was.
 

Edited November 4, 2023 by iknowcool

[Soggust]

2 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Top 6 doesn’t count as a candidate at the halfway mark? News to me.

He opened the season at 6 but I don't want to really die on this hill because I actually do think he's within striking distance.

But currently, if the season were to end today or next week, he wouldn't be a threat to win the award. 

 

Just now, KhanYouDigIt said:

Now show me last 25 games for each after their rookie season.

Let's be fair and exclude both the Meyer and Kitchens years (which were disastrous situations for both).

I have to do this by hand bc PFR doesn't like excluding seasons in the middle. Doing rate stats (per game) is aslo kind of hard bc baker didn't have same amount of games each season so I would have to do a lot more math, but if we really need to ill do the work later. For now I'm just doing simple adding -

-----

First 3 seasons (minus worst year):
Trevor:  25 Games Started | 15-10 Record | 39 TD | 24 TO | 6555 totYds | 94.7rtg
Baker: 29 Games Started | 17-12 Record | 54 TD | 29 TO | 7584 totYds | 94.8rtg

[-Hope-]

21 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Top 6 doesn’t count as a candidate at the halfway mark? News to me.

it really doesn't. nobody in their right mind thinks lawrence has any shot to win MVP unless he goes absolutely nuclear down the stretch, in which case this thread isn't even a conversation. wentz was basically a shoo-in for MVP that year until his injury. it's possible to defend lawrence's play (which has been unambiguously good) without stretching like this.

[KhanYouDigIt]

Last 25 games after rookie years:

Lawrence- 67 Comp%, 39 TD’s, 12 INT’s (1.4 INT%), 95 QB rating, 262 YPG, 7.07 YPA

Mayfield- 60 Comp%, 40 TD’s, 28 INT’s (3.6 INT%), 82.3 QB rating, 227 YPG, 7.04 YPA  

[KhanYouDigIt]

6 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

it really doesn't. nobody in their right mind thinks lawrence has any shot to win MVP unless he goes absolutely nuclear down the stretch, in which case this thread isn't even a conversation. wentz was basically a shoo-in for MVP that year until his injury. it's possible to defend lawrence's play (which has been unambiguously good) without stretching like this.

Jags beat the 49ers and Titans next 2 weeks he will easily be top 3.

[-Hope-]

7 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Jags beat the 49ers and Titans next 2 weeks he will easily be top 3.

i dunno man, i have this radical impression that the mvp award is based on actual production and not gifs of missed TD catches, so it's probably going to depend on *how* he plays in those games. like i said, if he goes off these next few weeks, puts together some 3/4 TD games, 300 yards, etc etc, sure, maybe he's in the conversation. if he continues producing at his current rate, even if the jaguars win those games? not a chance.

personally i think it's fine to just admit that you have a really good QB who does not happen to be having the absolute best season in football this year, but idk.

[KhanYouDigIt]

2 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

i dunno man, i have this radical impression that the mvp award is based on actual production and not gifs of missed TD catches, so it's probably going to depend on *how* he plays in those games. like i said, if he goes off these next few weeks, puts together some 3/4 TD games, 300 yards, etc etc, sure, maybe he's in the conversation. if he continues producing at his current rate, even if the jaguars win those games? not a chance.

personally i think it's fine to just admit that you have a really good QB who does not happen to be having the absolute best season in football this year, but idk.

That’s exactly what I’ve been saying lmao. I responded to the guy who said “he’s been okay”. Where did I say he is the front runner for MVP? I’ll wait.

[Soggust]

1 minute ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Last 25 games after rookie years:

Lawrence- 67 Comp%, 39 TD’s, 12 INT’s (1.4 INT%), 95 QB rating, 262 YPG, 7.07 YPA

Mayfield- 60 Comp%, 40 TD’s, 28 INT’s (3.6 INT%), 82.3 QB rating, 227 YPG, 7.04 YPA  

Forget for a moment that you are comparing Trevor's best stretch to arguably Baker's worst stretch of his entire career - Why ignore fumbles but include rushing TDs?

Trevor would still be ahead (24 TO vs 31 TO), but ignoring it seems like we are trying to skew the difference to look even bigger. 

[-Hope-]

2 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

That’s exactly what I’ve been saying lmao. I responded to the guy who said “he’s been okay”. Where did I say he is the front runner for MVP? I’ll wait.

my whole objection has been to the fact that you pretty clearly equated lawrence being 6th in mvp odds with carson wentz's 2017. not sure what else responding with his mvp odds is supposed to mean, unless you were trying to purposefully illustrate the other guy's point that lawrence is nowhere near that level this year.

[Soko]

53 minutes ago, KhanYouDigIt said:

Top 6 doesn’t count as a candidate at the halfway mark? News to me.

6th? Eh, not really. Depending on the year, 2nd or 3rd place isn’t even “in the discussion”. Depends how things shake out.

If first place is 44 votes, second place is 4, and third place gets 1 - was third place really in the discussion?

[KhanYouDigIt]

1 minute ago, -Hope- said:

my whole objection has been to the fact that you pretty clearly equated lawrence being 6th in mvp odds with carson wentz's 2017. not sure what else responding with his mvp odds is supposed to mean, unless you were trying to purposefully illustrate the other guy's point that lawrence is nowhere near that level this year.

He said Carson was an MVP candidate in his 2nd season under Doug and I pointed out Lawrence is also an MVP candidate in his 2nd season under Doug. If you’re 6th in odds at the halfway point, you’re a candidate. Jags win these next two games and he produces, he’s top 3, like I said.