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A 2024 OFF-SEASON PROJECTION (POST NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME)


Karnage84

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1 hour ago, Just Want A Title said:

I think the Lions drafted Hendon Hooker because they, like most people, didn't see Jared Goff playing at such a high level.  Now they have an interesting problem:  They have a starting QB playing like a top-5 QB and a very physically talented young QB behind him.  

I hate this for Jared Goff because he might become our version of Alex Smith despite everything he as done while he has been here.

Hooker was taken because they needed a back up QB and he provided value. He's just a plan B in case the rug was pulled out with Goff and/or if Hooker suddenly looks like Mahomes 2.0. Hooker just provides more upside than Blough or Boyle did/do. 

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Just now, Karnage84 said:

Hooker was taken because they needed a back up QB and he provided value. He's just a plan B in case the rug was pulled out with Goff and/or if Hooker suddenly looks like Mahomes 2.0. Hooker just provides more upside than Blough or Boyle did/do. 

My guess is we had him rated pretty highly to have used a 3rd on him with the injuries.  Knowing he wouldnt be a back up most of this year and still drafting him, we must have had a first or early 2nd round grade on him from the tape.  I dont think we would waste a pick on a guy if the staff didn't really like him.  That being said, they like Goff more, and aren't going to rush Goff out of the building.  If Hooker gets a chance to play and looks like Jordan Love late in the year, maybe we trade Goff or him at that point, but for now we will keep Goff around and he will start. 

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16 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Side note - Something we have never had to do but it sort of sucks drafting so late in rounds.  My mocks I have to either reach for guys I want or trade up, or just miss on them.  Much less ability to maneuver and target guys when picking so late in the rounds.  Good problem to have, but just not used to it. 

This is something to consider - do the Lions use all 7 picks to add 7 players or do we manoeuver to move up and acquire players higher up?

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17 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

My guess is we had him rated pretty highly to have used a 3rd on him with the injuries.  Knowing he wouldnt be a back up most of this year and still drafting him, we must have had a first or early 2nd round grade on him from the tape.  I dont think we would waste a pick on a guy if the staff didn't really like him.  That being said, they like Goff more, and aren't going to rush Goff out of the building.  If Hooker gets a chance to play and looks like Jordan Love late in the year, maybe we trade Goff or him at that point, but for now we will keep Goff around and he will start. 

The only way I can see this happening is if Goff's contract demands get out of whack. We aren't going to sign [Goff] to a big, multi-year deal and then trade him away after a year.

Hooker could show something in pre-season to where a team would trade for him but he's unproven. 

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10 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

The only way I can see this happening is if Goff's contract demands get out of whack. We aren't going to sign [Goff] to a big, multi-year deal and then trade him away after a year.

Hooker could show something in pre-season to where a team would trade for him but he's unproven. 

I mean if there is an injury to Goff and Hooker gets a real chance to show what he has in the regular season.  If he can take over and look great, we would move Goff even after the extension, similar to Rodgers getting moved in GB, or Alex Smith getting moved in KC.  Its is very unlikely, but again, I dont think we drafted Hooker that high, with an injury just because we thought he would be a pretty decent backup next year.  Goff is still their guy, but if Hooker gets an opportunity and excels, we will have to make a decision and the younger cheaper guy usually wins out in that scenario. 

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I think there are a few guys that could really fit in with us here free agent wise.  

At CB, I think guys like Kyle Fuller, Stephon Gilmore, and Kenny Moore are guys that are a little older and might sign the one or two year type deals that Holmes likes.  Jaylon Johnson would be great but not sure we go spend that kind of money in free agency and risk losing our own talent when its time.  Also maybe a guy like Chidobe Awuize would be a solid fill in.  One of these guys and a top pick at CB and I think we are well on our way to being a much better defense. 

Antione Winfield would be ideal to add to the S room but again I doubt we go spend that kind of money.  He is the type of guy we like in that CJGJ roll but the price tag might be a little too much.  Kameron Curl is a guy I like that could step in and start/push guys like Kerby to improve and not break the bank.  CJGJ is obviously a candidate as well to re-sign but wouldn't be mad if we looked elsewhere. 

At DT the studs are Chris Jones, Justin Madubuike, and Christian Wilkins.  Again these types of long term deals are not Holmes typical method so I doubt we see either of them here.  DJ Reader and Leonard Williams are guys I would like to see added here on two year deals that could help add some pass rush while keeping the run D stout.  

Edge guys that are intriguing would be Chase Young.  He may still not get a ton of interest long term so if he is interested in a 1 or 2 year deal for 12-14M, bring him in.  Jonathan Greenard is another guy I would like to bring in but I am guessing Houston will try to keep him with all of the cap space they have remaining. Z'Darius Smith is another guy we could add at DE that could help add pass rushing depth there. AJ Epenesa would be nice but he is horrid against the run.  But might be a solid edge for rushing downs. 

There are a lot of options to replace Jonah Jackson as well if we do not re-sign him.  He is from the previous regime and has had some injury issues so wouldn't be shocked if we let him go.  Robert Hunt, Kevin Zeitler, Kevin Dotson, or guys like Lloyd Cushenberry who can also play C.  

The WR market is pretty nice as well with guys we tend to lean towards.  Guys like Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Curtis Samuel or Kendrick Bourne could replace Reynolds.  Thomas likely will get paid too much but if not would be a solid hands guy.  Could bring back DPJ but I doubt it.  Guessing we will either bring along Green or draft someone else to fill in the 5th WR role. 

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I'm tired of hearing the rhetoric of fans laughing at Ben saying 15m a year.

that's smart. 
 

list your price. If they talk to you then they really want you. If not move on.

When I get headhunted my first responses is if you are not offering at min xxx then have a good day. 
 

People need to know their worth. 
 

Don't waste each others time.

 

Love his approach to naming his price 

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Impending FAs that I'd like to re-sign;

-Jonah Jackson
- Josh Reynolds
- Jalen Reeves-Maybin
- Dan Skipper
- Benito Jones (RFA)
- Craig Reynolds (RFA)
-Jerry Jacobs (RFA)
- Matt Nelson

Impending FAs that I'd like to let go;

- DPJ
- Sudfeld
- Cabinda
- Big V
- Charles Harris
- Okwara squared
-Pittman
-Moseley
- Dorsey
- Will Harris
 

And then we could just send CJGJ to the moon or something. Not under contract.

We need new starters at;

EDGE, CB1, WR2, K.  Potentially OG depending on Jonah Jackson.

We probably need to start grooming a new C. We need depth on both lines.

Edited by nagahide13
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This shows the change in points and win expectancy by specific plays. The two Reynolds drops cost us 9.9 points. The Vildor int turned 51 yard gain cost us 5.2 points. A total of 15.1 points lost in those three plays. But yeah, it was the coordinators that blew it. 

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6 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

This shows the change in points and win expectancy by specific plays. The two Reynolds drops cost us 9.9 points. The Vildor int turned 51 yard gain cost us 5.2 points. A total of 15.1 points lost in those three plays. But yeah, it was the coordinators that blew it. 

If we compare and contrast SF vs Det... just going with the Expected of lucky and unlucky plays, 

SF = -1.56 (-1.8 + .24)

DET = 6.91 (0.03, 0.28, 1.63, 2.28, 2.69)

DIFF = +8.47 

If the plays went as expected, this would be a substantial difference in favour of the Lions. 

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Has anyone heard anything about Ragnow? From his interview on returning to Detroit.

Quote

“It takes a toll on you,” Ragnow said, via Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. “It really takes a toll on you, so I need to find a way to get back to Frank and I don’t regret any of this at all, but it weighs on you and I’m just going to take some time and really figure everything out to make sure that I’m feeling good, not only for me the football player but for me to be the best husband and best father and everything with that as well.”

There has been speculation that he is thinking about whether he wants to continue or retire. I wouldn't think anything of it except he has suffered a lot with injuries. Still, he leaves a lot of cash on the table if he did retire. Not having him back would leave a big hole in the oline.

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3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

My guess is we had him rated pretty highly to have used a 3rd on him with the injuries.  Knowing he wouldnt be a back up most of this year and still drafting him, we must have had a first or early 2nd round grade on him from the tape.  I dont think we would waste a pick on a guy if the staff didn't really like him.  That being said, they like Goff more, and aren't going to rush Goff out of the building.  If Hooker gets a chance to play and looks like Jordan Love late in the year, maybe we trade Goff or him at that point, but for now we will keep Goff around and he will start. 

Check out Hendon Hookers stats over his last two seasons in college:  He was a legit first-round talent prior to the injury.  His arm talent is no joke.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/hendon-hooker-1.html

Edited by Just Want A Title
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3 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

Side note - Something we have never had to do but it sort of sucks drafting so late in rounds.  My mocks I have to either reach for guys I want or trade up, or just miss on them.  Much less ability to maneuver and target guys when picking so late in the rounds.  Good problem to have, but just not used to it. 

The good news is that there are a bunch of really good players at positions of need available in the 2nd round so a trade back might help us fill multiple holes.  

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50 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

This shows the change in points and win expectancy by specific plays. The two Reynolds drops cost us 9.9 points. The Vildor int turned 51 yard gain cost us 5.2 points. A total of 15.1 points lost in those three plays. But yeah, it was the coordinators that blew it. 

They put those players in bad positions period. 4th down should not have happened. 
 

Letting SF shred a base defense over and over is coordinators fault 

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28 minutes ago, detfan782004 said:

They put those players in bad positions period. 4th down should not have happened. 
 

Letting SF shred a base defense over and over is coordinators fault 

Vildor was in perfect position on his play, he just completely whiffed and let it bounce off his face mask.  That has nothing to do with the position they were in. If he catches that ball, the defense is stopping the shredding.  The biggest shredding of our defense was a fluke play.  

The 4th down drop by Reynolds he was wide open and the ball hit him in the chest.  That seems like being put in a pretty good situation.  If he makes that catch, DC is a genius for going for it and killing their momentum and the win probability after the catch would have significantly increased.  

The second down drop by Laporta and the third down drop by Reynolds they were both wide open going over the middle.  They were put in a great position by the coaching staff. 

This isnt even taking into account the other 4th down call.  That play did not have fluky impacts.  

 

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