BDL 2023 Playoffs Week 1 - #6 New Orleans Jazz @ #3 Anchorage Trappers

[RedGold]

BDL 2023 Playoffs Week 1

Match:  New Orleans Jazz @ Anchorage Trappers

 Away Owner:   @WFLukic

Home Owner:    @Scoundrel

 Vote for who you think would win the game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[RedGold]

New Orleans

Offense:

QB: Josh Allen
RB: Derrick Henry 
WR: D.J. Moore
WR: DeAndre Hopkins
Slot WR: Deebo Samuel
TE: Jake Ferguson
LT: Taylor Decker
LG: Joel Bitonio
OC: David Andrews
RG: Connor McGovern (Buf)
RT: Colton McKivitz

Bench:

RB2: Raheem Mostert
RB3: James Conner
WR4: Rashee Rice
WR5: Curtis Samuel
TE2: Hunter Henry
TE3: Tyler Conklin
OL6: Cam Robinson
OL7: Greg Van Roten

Defense:

DE: Nick Bosa
DT: Christian Wilkins
DT: Roy Robertson-Harris
DE: Za'darius Smith
LB: DeMario Davis
LB: Azeez Al-Shaair
CB: Stephon Gilmore
CB: James Bradberry
S: Tyrann Mathieu
S: Julian Love
Slot CB: Mike Hilton

Bench:
DE3: Tuli Tuipulotu
DE4: YaYa Diaby
INT3: Jonathan Hankins
INT4: Kevin Strong
LB3: Josey Jewell
CB4: Deommodore Lenoir
CB5: Derion Kendrick
S3: Taylor Rapp

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anchorage  

Offense:

QB- Tommy DeVito 

RB- Breece Hall

X- Ja’Marr Chase

Z- Jameson Williams 

Slot- Jaxon Smith-Njigba

TE- David Njoku 

LT- Andrew Thomas 

LG- Graham Glasgow

C- Erik McCoy

RG- Jamaree Salyer 

RT- Spencer Brown

 

Bench:

RB- Tyjae Spears

RB- Roschon Johnson 

Slot- Josh Downs 

WR- Hollywood Brown 

TE- Isaiah Likely 

IOL- Jon Runyan Jr

OT- Ikem Ekwonu

C- Andre James

 

Defense:

RE- Haason Reddick   

NT- Jordan Davis

3T- Ed Oliver

LE- Micah Parsons   

MLB- David Long Jr 

SLB- Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah

CB- Jaycee Horn 

CB- Paulson Adebo 

Nickel- Derek Stingley Jr

FS- Jessie Bates lll

Star- Patrick Surtain ll

 

Bench:

Edge- Aidan Hutchinson 

Edge- Alex Highsmith

Edge- Sam Hubbard

DT- Jarran Reed

DT- Dante Stills 

LB- Micah McFadden 

CB- Amik Robertson 

S- Kam Curl

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by RedGold

[RedGold]

 New Orleans

 

Gameplan:

Offense: 

Our first playoff meeting against Anchorage and nothing but respect to be shown. We’ve been two of the leading teams for years now, routinely making the playoffs and it’s a privilege to finally get to play against them. Even if they may be down their QB, we are under no circumstances going to overlook them. 
Offense:
60% - 3 WR 1 TE 1 RB
20% - 2 TE 2 WR 1 RB
20% - 4 WR 1 RB

Running game

As has always been the case, the running game is based on Derrick Henry running into a light box. The plan is for him to get a large number if we take the lead as he only gets better with each carry as he bruises the defence. With Vita Vea in the middle, we know Anchorage is a legit team on the ground so we’ll want to try and test the edge defenders a bit more. Parsons is incredible and Redick has shown to be an exceptional pass-rusher, but we know running to his end (or whoever subs in for him) will be where we can try and wear them out and perhaps do a bit more damage. 

Anticipating an aggressive Anchorage front, we’re also going to throw in a fair few toss plays to both Henry and Mostert. With Henry, getting him into space a letting him accelerate will let him put a bruising on Anchorage’s DBs while Mostert getting space will give us plenty of TD opportunities or chances for huge gains. 
With Mostert, we definitely want to try and run some counters, and after that, play action. As I said, Anchorage has a very aggressive front that likes to get down hill, so misdirection and counter play could see them overcommit and leave them exposed at the second level. 

Also since it’s playoffs, we’re going to see more option plays. Joshy boy will be running, especially inside the 20 to be our main weapon near the end zone and on short yardage plays. 

We’ll also give Deebo a few carries to add some legitimacy to his snaps at RB for reasons that will be discussed in the passing section. 

Passing Game

Anchorage does everything well on defence, but if there is any place that they might be exposable, it’s over the middle with a linebacker group that isn’t quite at the standard of their DL and secondary. So our plan is to try and hit the middle of the field.

Slants and rub routes will be what we’ll do to get the ball into Samuel, Rice and Moore’s hands across the middle, while also throwing in some screens and quick outs.
Motion will be a big part of the passing game and so will lining up Deebo in the backfield as the RB (along with 3 WRs in their WR positions). Deebo needs to be treated like a true running back, which if he then motions out, will create mismatch opportunities unless Anchorage wants to go particularly light or safety heavy in the secondary. 

We also expect Anchorage may try to confuse us showing different coverage looks and alternating between zone and man, so our use of motion will be particularly important in this regard and we’ll Hopkins specifically tasked (and Allen made aware of this) to adjust his routes when we identify zone and specifically try and look for the softer spots at the intermediate level and near the sideline so Allen can zip the balls to him on the first read. 

We also want to target Anchorage’s CB3, whoever he draws as his coverage assignment. Stingley and Surtain are balling, and while it’s not to say they won’t be targeted (they will, our WRs are awesome) we want to try and pick on the weak link. 

Defense:

Make the QB beat us

Anchorage could be using either DeVito or O’Connell, but either way we aren’t worried. While Scoundrel is as good a coach as they come and Anchorage has some phenomenal talent, neither QB will really be able to torch us. 

We’re mainly going to rush four. Even with the loss of Jeffery Simmons, Wilkins still offers extremely high level play on the inside and Bosa in recent weeks has been playing as well as ever. Smith will play earlier downs on the edge, rotating with both Tuipulotu and Diaby, however Smith will kick inside on pass-rushing downs while one of the other edges comes in. 

We’re definitely going to make an effort to keep the game in front of us too and not let Anchorage’s players burn us deep or get behind the D. That is because the only way we see ourselves losing is if Anchorage’s drives that would’ve ended in 3, turn into 7s and the ones that would have been 0s become 3s. So for that reason, we’ll be playing pretty tight man coverages to limit the chance of a blown coverage in zone.

We also anticipate that Anchorage will want to get the ball out of their QB’s hands and into Breece Hall or another receiving option to try and generate yards after the catch, whether in the screen game or a bit further down field. We’ll let Mathieu and Davis’ leadership and anticipation on defense guide us with both having the license to move around based on what they see. 

Lastly, Jamarr Chase will get a little extra attention on most snaps given his game breaking ability, while our deep safety in Mathieu will generally remain there to help manage the threat of Hollywood Brown and Jameson Williams. 

Coverage:

We’re going with our usual cover 1 here, with Mathieu taking the deep safety duties and the secondary duties closer to the LOS.

While we’re lining up in a base 4-2-5, we acknowledge Anchorage may very well go with 4 WRs. In which case Al-Shaair will sub out for Hilton.

In terms of coverage, it will be as follows:

Chase - Gilmore + shadowing by Love if moving towards slot
Brown  - Bradberry
WR3/Slot - Hilton
TE - Al-Shaair
Hall - Davis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anchorage 

Overview:  
It’s playoff time! We host the New Orleans Jazz for round one after they took last week off. We will bring all the smoke to defend to our title. 

 

Offense: 

3 Wide (50%), 2TE (30%), 4 Wide (20%)

• 55/45 Pass/Run split this week
• We utilize 3 Wide in 50% of our plays allowing us to spread out the NOLA defense while still having enough beef to hammer them inside
• We will look to combo route to attack all depths of the NOLA defense disguising route combos as all receivers challenge varying depthsthroughout the game
• JSN gets the start in the slot with Downs working as our 4 Wide additional slot
• DeVito was able to get his feet wet last week and we look to build on his experience giving him optimal targets by implementing some RPO opportunities as well as Play Action off of our run game 
• Chase and Jamo will utilize their speed on crossers, screens and deep shots throughout the game
• Jamo will get a couple end around opportunities
• Jamo will be a motion to helpdetermine coverage but also work him into space quickly getting separation to weaponize his speed 
• Chase will be our go to guy and be fed plenty of targets 
• Njoku will work varying depths challenging the safeties and backers and when we run 2TE sets he and Likely will be used in combination with the receivers to seam stretch or attack underneath
• We will utilize Likely some as a move TE in these sets and treat him as big slot on snaps out of 2Tight
• Zone run game featuring inside and outside zone
• Hall will be the main back receiving 60% of the work with Spears receiving the other 40%
• If Hall can’t go Spears takes the 60% and Roschon takes the 40%
• Backs will be used as outlets and as chips against Bosa
• A couple back screens to our backs will be utilized to take advantage of heavy pressure

 

 

Defense:

•Base Star Nickel against 3wide, 4Wide 

•4-3 against traditional 2RB/1TE, 2TE sets 

•5-2 against Heavy extra OL sets or any 3 Tight jumbo package. 

• We expect to be predominately in our Base Star Nickel in this one getting our five best DBs on the field utilizing Surtain in the Star role
• Single High Man and Cover 3 Zone mix
• Adebo and Horn man the outside while we leverage Stingley’s athleticism in the nickel. Against 4 wide Surtain becomes the Dime as we have the flexibility to remain in ourbase formation 
• Against 3 Wide Surtain has TE in man, and JOK has RB
• Long will serve as an Allen spy 
• In 4-3 McFadden comes on the field and plays the spy while Long has RB and Surtain has Schultz while JOK has TE2 or RB2
• Rotate front four enough to keep players fresh when the hurry up isn’t preventing personnel changes
• Disciplined gap responsible defense against the run
• Primarily pressure with our front four with occasional zone blitzes from Long
• Occasional stunts and twists to provide pressure variance with the front
• Jordan Davis gets the start next to Oliver to stifle the Jazz running game
• We will flip Parsons and Reddick throughout the game to create a change up the tackles will have to account for as we look to take advantage of matchups that are working 
• In clear passing situations we will look to get Hutchinson on the interior for inside pressure 

Edited December 11, 2023 by RedGold

[Blue]

I don't think either of these gameplans are great. I think Anchorage is making a big mistake only playing one safety in their base against a passing attack targeting the middle of the field, even with an excellent four deep at corner. Anchorage has a great counter play to Deebo with Long and JOK, who are built to defend that kind of player. I think the Anchorage tight ends really eat here against a back seven that is a bit over the hill, especially with Bradberry picking up (I guess) Jameson Williams in motion, where he can't jam him at the line and especially when Jamo scored on a rush just a couple weeks ago like he's being used a couple times  here. New Orleans is definitely going to cause the Trappers some problems in the pass game at the line, but the same is true on the other side of the ball with better talent on the back end.

At the end of the day, one of these teams showed up last week and the other didn't, and I am a believer in momentum. Anchorage rallies around Tommy DeVito at home in an upset as the New Orleans offensive line fails to contain the Anchorage pass rush and the defense's bend but don't break strategy lets the Trappers control the clock.

[TedLavie]

Anchorage O vs New Orleans D

Despite the absence of Ragnow, I kinda like Anchorage inside running. I wished they would do it a bit more tbh. I think Anchorage is a bit too reliant on its passing game here, imho. NO doubling Chase also seriously limits DeVito first option, and I feel Davis takes away Breece. I just don't trust Anchorage to build a passing game on all levels of NOLA defense with the DeVito to JSN or Njoku connection unfortunately. 

New Orleans O vs Anchorage D

Small miss for NO here as they didn't see Vea was out. I think with Bitonio and Andrews they could have been successful running inside here. NO tackles aren't nearly as good run blockers I feel, especially Decker. I do feel NO gameplan here. Attacking the middle works for me and I think they have the players to do so. Anchorage D is obviously filled with studs so I don't expect any sort of high scoring output, but I think they do enough to prevail on the road.

 

NO 20 - Anchorage 13

 

[Scoundrel]

26 minutes ago, TedLavie said:

Njoku connection unfortunately. 

Someone didn’t watch games

[TedLavie]

6 minutes ago, Scoundrel said:

Someone didn’t watch games

Njoku is good don't get me wrong. Do I think he's going to take over this game with, again this is an important parameter, Devito as QB? No I don't. 

[InjuredReserve]

Looks my vote ties this up - so this is a tight race and I think these are 2 super deserving squads.

I think the big talking point coming into the playoff for Anchorage has obviously been DeVito. But, it is hard to penalize Anchorage too heavily when the guy is winning IRL and playing solidly. With Anchorage having the elite defense it does I still view Anchorage as a scary match-up.

NO comes in with a gameplan challenging DeVito to beat them. Makes complete sense and even with DeVito playing well they would not get severely punished. But, based on that I do expect a game where the Anchorage rushing attack is effective even if the gameplan is still pass heavy.

I think Anchorage moves the ball consistently enough down the field to build a small lead that its defense barely clings to  with its elite pass rush talent - albeit under intense pressure from a great New Orleans skill position group. 

Gut says: Anchorage 22 - NO 17

[bcb1213]

I think Henry and Samuel have pretty big games here against a super athletic but mostly undersized front four for Anchorage and a guy in stingley who has limited slot experience in the NFL.  It's also hard to get behind Williams in the lineup as he simply hasn't produced much in the NFL, with 1 total catch the past two weeks.  Anchorage clearly has talent but I simply trust New Orleans to move the ball more consistently here

 

New Orleans 24-13

[RedGold]

This is a highly competetive game throughout,  I think both offenses are able to stay on the field pretty easily but defenses are able to prevent the big plays.   I feel this game comes down to which Defense is able to hold up better in the Redzone and prevent TD's.      I'm going with the Jazz in a close one.

24-17

[rackcs]

I came into this kind of expecting to vote New Orleans but this is a really close matchup. I think DeVito can be an ok-ish game manager but I don't see him putting up too many points unfortunately. I think the Anchorage defense is going to really put the clamps down on the New Orleans offense though. Their pass rush is going to have a field day with that OL I think and keep the pressure on Allen while the Anchorage corners are so uniquely stacked talent-wise to be able to slow down the plethora of weapons New Orleans has. I think this game stays ugly and low-scoring until late in the game. I think ultimately I trust the New Orleans offense to put together a few more sustained drives that will lead to a few field goals while I think Anchorage is going to see more 4 and outs. Very close game.

[Scoundrel]

@WFLukic good game my friend. I am happy it was this close. Best of luck the rest of the way!

[WFLukic]

3 hours ago, Scoundrel said:

@WFLukic good game my friend. I am happy it was this close. Best of luck the rest of the way!

Likewise.

The only thing stopping you from repeating was a QB injury and even with a rookie UDFA you almost advanced. Speaks a lot about you as owner. Looking forward to meeting you again next playiffs.