2024 NFL Draft Thread

[Tetsujin]

With the ___ pick in the first round (if we keep it), the Dolphins select: Sedrick Van Pran, Center, UGA.

[Swampbilly]

5 hours ago, Tetsujin said:

With the ___ pick in the first round (if we keep it), the Dolphins select: Sedrick Van Pran, Center, UGA.

I have Van Pran as a mid to late 2nd rounder.  I think round 1 is a little high.

I could see us going OG or DT in round 1.  Caveat to that is a talented RT like Taliese Fuaga Oregon State to start at RG and have the versatility to move out to either OT spot when needed and double down by drafting another OG later.

[Tetsujin]

I like NT T’Vondre Sweat a lot too. I’d trade assets just to secure Sweat and SVP. “Punt God” Tory Taylor could be worth a mid-round pick. 

[Emerica]

With Dallas and Cleveland losing we now pick 22, with a chance of going up a few more spots if Detroit, Philly or Buffalo lose.

[TheKillerNacho]

On 12/12/2023 at 10:54 AM, Tetsujin said:

With the ___ pick in the first round (if we keep it), the Dolphins select: Sedrick Van Pran, Center, UGA.

I'd rather resign Connor Williams and spend this pick elsewhere.

[Swampbilly]

17 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I'd rather resign Connor Williams and spend this pick elsewhere.

Me too, I like the idea of Williams returning and of course Eichenberg will be back hopefully to continue playing as a backup interior swing man and not as our starting RG. 

If Williams isn't coming back and we have to look to the draft, then my eyes are on Oregon Center Jackson Powers-Johnson in round 2.  I think he is the top C in the 2024 class.  He is definitely the top zone graded C in 2024 with a pff zone grade of 83.2, run grade 85.2, pass grade 90.6, at 6'3" 320lbs.

[Swampbilly]

My current Dolphins pff mock for 2024;

R1 pick 21: QB Bo Nix Oregon.  Ultimately, I don't think he makes it this far down the board but if he's available then we should draft him unless we can trade back to later in R1 with high value compensation.  I don't want to be held hostage by Tua in a contract year a la Daniel Jones with the Giants.

R2 pick 53: OT Patrick Paul U of Houston.  At 6"7" 315 lbs is an elite pass blocker with an above average zone blocking grade.  With the health of Armstead and Jackson we still have a need for a high production and high snap volume swing tackle.

R5 pick 158:  TE Ben Sinott Kansas State.  At 6'4" 245 lbs he is an above average run blocker and receiver that can work well in line or as a move TE.

R6 pick 199: OG Layden Robinson Texas A&M.  At 6'4" 315 is an above average zone blocker that will need to develop and improve his pass blocking to stick around the NFL.

R7 pick 242:  LB Nathaniel Watson Mississippi State.  At 6'2" 245 projects as an on ball LB that is above slightly average in zone coverage but good against the run.  Will play Special Teams early while developing as a depth player.

* With this mock I'm anticipating the re-signing of C Connor Williams while RG Robert Hunt and LG Isaiah Wynn being replaced through Free Agency.

 

Edited January 16 by Swampbilly

[TheKillerNacho]

27 minutes ago, Swampbilly said:

My current Dolphins pff mock for 2024;

R1 pick 21: QB Bo Nix Oregon.  Ultimately, I don't think he makes it this far down the board but if he's available then we should draft him unless we can trade back to later in R1 with high value compensation.  I don't want to be held hostage by Tua in a contract year a la Daniel Jones with the Giants.

 

I can't see how Bo Nix is anything but a 2nd-day QB prospect.

[Emerica]

Good year for OT, i would look for a LT in the 1st and DT/S/CB in the 2nd, depending on what happens with Wilkins/Howard. (Although i don’t trust whoever is responsible for scouting CB under Grier, would prefer we sign someone established)

Rookie LT can slot in to LG until Armstead gets hurt, then takes over LT when Terron retires or we move on.

We’ll see what direction Grier/McD go with the pending FAs

[Phinsesq]

We will have some hard decisions don’t see them being able to keep Williams at Center and Wilkins. I expect X to be a post June 1st cut which will make the beginning of the league year that much more difficult. I’m sure there will be some restructuring as well and Armstead may call it a career. The ways these gms manipulate the cap the situation is intimidating on paper but in reality I have faith in their “accounting” abilities.

[Swampbilly]

On 1/16/2024 at 11:53 AM, TheKillerNacho said:

I can't see how Bo Nix is anything but a 2nd-day QB prospect.

His only down side is he doesn’t have as big of an arm as the 4 QBs that will probably be drafted ahead of him.  My QB rankings for 2024; Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels in that order.  The next tier in order, Michael Penix, Bo Nix.  
The only question for me is will 5 QBs go in round 1?  We still have the entire pre draft process to go through so a lot of information will be forthcoming and that will probably change some evaluations for everyone.

I’ve had conversations with people that believe JJ Mcarthy is a first round lock and I don’t see that at all, so I do get where you’re coming from, but I’ll explain why I think Nix should go late round 1.  In short he is an extremely safe pick in early round 2, but smart teams with a possible QB need will grab that early round 2 projected QB in late round 1 so they have the 5th year option.

Nix has a high ceiling and high floor.  Pros; Big time production, Lots of starting experience and signature wins ( true freshman beat #5 Alabama 48-45 and played well ), Doesn’t make many mistakes, Very good athleticism and measurables, demonstrates he has the nuances of the position down such as moving defenders with his eyes, High intelligence and processing ability.

Con; Has a good arm but not elite power, average NFL arm.

Maybe a team gets fortunate and he’s available in round 2 but in approximately 99% of the pff mock simulators I've run (well over 100) he’s been drafted in round 1 and the majority have him not making it past New Orleans at pick 14.

Edited January 17 by Swampbilly

[Swampbilly]

On 1/16/2024 at 3:25 PM, Emerica said:

Good year for OT, i would look for a LT in the 1st and DT/S/CB in the 2nd, depending on what happens with Wilkins/Howard. (Although i don’t trust whoever is responsible for scouting CB under Grier, would prefer we sign someone established)

Rookie LT can slot in to LG until Armstead gets hurt, then takes over LT when Terron retires or we move on.

We’ll see what direction Grier/McD go with the pending FAs

I think this is the most likely scenario for us in round 1.  I can see our GM working a trade down a couple picks while picking up a 3rd round pick and still drafting one of the top 6 OT's.  I see QB as a bigger need but I do think we end up overpaying Tua, who is capable of single game elite production.

[TheKillerNacho]

22 hours ago, Swampbilly said:

His only down side is he doesn’t have as big of an arm as the 4 QBs that will probably be drafted ahead of him.  My QB rankings for 2024; Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels in that order.  The next tier in order, Michael Penix, Bo Nix.  
The only question for me is will 5 QBs go in round 1?  We still have the entire pre draft process to go through so a lot of information will be forthcoming and that will probably change some evaluations for everyone.

I’ve had conversations with people that believe JJ Mcarthy is a first round lock and I don’t see that at all, so I do get where you’re coming from, but I’ll explain why I think Nix should go late round 1.  In short he is an extremely safe pick in early round 2, but smart teams with a possible QB need will grab that early round 2 projected QB in late round 1 so they have the 5th year option.

Nix has a high ceiling and high floor.  Pros; Big time production, Lots of starting experience and signature wins ( true freshman beat #5 Alabama 48-45 and played well ), Doesn’t make many mistakes, Very good athleticism and measurables, demonstrates he has the nuances of the position down such as moving defenders with his eyes, High intelligence and processing ability.

Con; Has a good arm but not elite power, average NFL arm.

Maybe a team gets fortunate and he’s available in round 2 but in approximately 99% of the pff mock simulators I've run (well over 100) he’s been drafted in round 1 and the majority have him not making it past New Orleans at pick 14.

I respect your opinion on this but mock drafts have traditionally oversold QB prospects, I feel. I think both Penix and Nix will be day 2 selections, at least how things are at htis point (obviously draft stock can change rapidly leading up to the draft).

[TheKillerNacho]

43 minutes ago, Swampbilly said:

I see QB as a bigger need but I do think we end up overpaying Tua, who is capable of single game elite production.

Honestly I feel like LB and DL (depending on what the turnover ultimately is) will be a bigger need, but I'm clearly more ok with Tua at QB than you are.

I do also worry about the OL, especially the interior. OT doesn't concern me as much unless Armstead retires.

[Swampbilly]

3 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I respect your opinion on this but mock drafts have traditionally oversold QB prospects, I feel. I think both Penix and Nix will be day 2 selections, at least how things are at htis point (obviously draft stock can change rapidly leading up to the draft).

I agree that mocks definitely have oversold QB's in the recent past.  But, what I'm looking at right now more than anything is PFF grading (which has it's issues) and Team Needs (which I think we both agree that is what teams draft for overwhelmingly in round 1).

Here's the list of teams that are selecting in the top 20 (by pick #) and that I'm sure would love to upgrade their QB situation before the 2024 season;

1. Chicago

2. Washington

3. New England

6. NY Giants

8. Atlanta

9. Chicago again (they're going to use one of these picks on a QB, but probably pick 1)

11. Minnesota

12. Denver

13. Raiders

14. Saints

Honorable mention Arizona picking at 4

That is a lot of QB need. 

Here's a list of potential starting caliber FA QBs for 2024;

Kirk Cousins

Ryan Tannehill

Jacoby Brissett

Jameis Winston

Baker Mayfield

Cousins is the only QB on that list IMO that can be counted on to definitely be a starter, the others are potential starters

QB's that are looking at a cut or possible trade scenario for 2024; Derek Carr (possible not likely), Russell Wilson (probable highly likely)

So, Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson would be QB's that 2 of the 9 QB needy teams would view as a solution to their QB need IMO.  That leaves 7 teams that are definitely interested in upgrading their QB situation in 2024 (regardless of what the teams say publicly)

Long story, but this is why I'm currently predicting 5 first round QBs for 2024.  Maybe I'm overthinking it, but I have thought it out and done brief evaluations.

 

Edited January 18 by Swampbilly